Leafs Chances of Making Playoffs (Reddit User)

[zeke]

Again, so what?

So any conclusions drawn about the team this year are based on small samples, not just the ones you object to.

 

[deletethis]

Does anyone disagree that a quality backup has to be sourced very soon or the season is at risk?

 

[Gary Nylund]

And, we have a lot of quality players, we aren’t a bottom feeder. As constructed, this team is “playoff” on paper, the question we all have is whether it is a legit Cup contender.

Before the season started I would have said that we're a legit contender, I would have said it loud and proud and with great confidence. I still say we're a legit contender, I just say it more quietly.

So any conclusions drawn about the team this year are based on small samples, not just the ones you object to.

Small is a relative term and the sample size for our season so far is several times bigger than the sample size for the team under Keefe. Of course it's too early to draw any conclusions about anything, there are many more games to be played and the future is always hard to predict.

What is it that you think I've objected to?

 

[Gary Nylund]

Does anyone disagree that a quality backup has to be sourced very soon or the season is at risk?

Hard to disagree with that for sure. I mean the season is at risk anyway but it would seem that the risk is much higher without a quality backup. If I'm Dubas, I maybe give Hutch another game or two but if he doesn't turn it around fast, something has to be done.

 

[ShaneFalco]

MoneyPuck.com has the Leafs‘ odds of making the playoffs at 37.6 percent. The team clearly has its work cut out for them.
Eight of their ten remaining games through the rest of December are against teams that did not make the playoffs. They start January with a run of six-of-eight games at home. After this four-game road trip, they have two more left of note: a Western conference run through San Jose, LA, and Anaheim, and a four-game trip — which seems like it will be critical right now — at the end of March that includes stops in Tampa Bay, Carolina, Ottawa, and Washington.
Lost in all the drama so far is that the Leafs have had a difficult schedule. If you look at Hockey Reference, they rank the Leafs as having the third most difficult strength of schedule in the East so far. At Power Rankings Guru, the Leafs are rated to have the fifth most difficult schedule so far in the league. They also note the Leafs have the third easiest remaining schedule.
At this point, it’s fair to wonder if the Leafs will, in fact, make the playoffs. They are clearly off the pace and have a notable gap they will have to make up. A legitimate run is going to be necessary to turn the tide of the season. But it’s also clear the Leafs are primed with a talented enough roster and a clear path in the remaining schedule to do exactly that.

Toronto Maple Leafs Notebook: Sizing up their playoff odds

 

[Dekes For Days]

Does anyone disagree that a quality backup has to be sourced very soon or the season is at risk?

I think it would be helpful, but panicking, overpaying, and removing from the roster in other areas for a negligible upgrade (based, and I say this as somebody that hates Hutchinson, on an unsustainably bad backup point pace) isn't going to help much, especially with many of the back-to-back games behind us. Goalie rest is important, but my god, it has become way overblown.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Before the season started I would have said that we're a legit contender, I would have said it loud and proud and with great confidence. I still say we're a legit contender, I just say it more quietly.

Small is a relative term and the sample size for our season so far is several times bigger than the sample size for the team under Keefe. Of course it's too early to draw any conclusions about anything, there are many more games to be played and the future is always hard to predict.

What is it that you think I've objected to?

Edit - I guess I objected to you projecting our pace under Keefe over the course of an entire season. I stand by that as it's pointless.

 

[deletethis]

I think it would be helpful, but panicking, overpaying, and removing from the roster in other areas for a negligible upgrade (based, and I say this as somebody that hates Hutchinson, on an unsustainably bad backup point pace) isn't going to help much, especially with many of the back-to-back games behind us. Goalie rest is important, but my god, it has become way overblown.

It's not overblown. Crunch the damn numbers. A functional NHL .500 backup is NOT a negligible upgrade to 0-6-1.

.500 backup at 3-3-1 instead of 0-6-1:

The team's current record would be 17-10-3
38 points
2nd in the division
4 points ahead of 4th place - more depending on who the points were collected from
1 point ahead of the 5th place in the Metropolian Division (2nd wild card).

 

[Gary Nylund]

Toronto Maple Leafs Notebook: Sizing up their playoff odds

Moneypuck is dumb. If I could bet we'd make the playoffs at those odds I'd definitely do it.

I think it would be helpful, but panicking, overpaying, and removing from the roster in other areas for a negligible upgrade (based, and I say this as somebody that hates Hutchinson, on an unsustainably bad backup point pace) isn't going to help much, especially with many of the back-to-back games behind us. Goalie rest is important, but my god, it has become way overblown.

Considering how bad Hutch has been, I would assume we'd hope for a new backup to be a massive upgrade. I agree we shouldn't panic but I also think we're pretty close to that time.

As far as how important goalie rest goes, I really have no idea but whatever the answer is, we better get it right.

 

[Dekes For Days]

It's not overblown. Crunch the damn numbers. A functional NHL .500 backup is NOT a negligible upgrade to 0-6-1.

It is not sustainable to only get 1 out of every 14 available points in backup games, even if our backup remained Hutchinson. Getting a backup going forward will not change the record that has already been accumulated, and there doesn't seem to be a substantial upgrade available for a reasonable price.

 

[Durrr]

What's concerning is that Florida is up by 3 points with 2 games in hand and TB is down 1 point with 4 games in hand. The math really sucks. Leafs will have to go on a run now, not next month, now.

3 points with 2 games in hand isn't really that much over the course of 50~ games.

 

[zeke]

the thing is, the reasonable expectation is that Hutch will save some goals and win some games going forward. his track record isn't anywhere near as bad as his performance this year. his .876 this year is likely every bit as anomalous as his .914 was for us last year.

 

[deletethis]

It is not sustainable to only get 1 out of every 14 available points in backup games, even if our backup remained Hutchinson. Getting a backup going forward will not change the record that has already been accumulated, and there doesn't seem to be a substantial upgrade available for a reasonable price.

The "not sustainable" trope doesn't work the same way for recognized failures as it does for outlying successes.

 

[Mess]

Playoff Probabilities Report

Eastern Conference (as of Dec 9, 2019)

• Explanation
• Results based on 1000 simulations of remainder of season

• Copy Link to Table to Clipboard

Rk	Team	W	L	OL	PTS	Current	Remain	Best	Worst	SRS	SOS	Playoffs	Wild Card	Division	Top Seed	Win Conf	Win Cup
Atlantic Division
1	Boston Bruins	49.2	21.5	11.3	109.7	46	64	129	86	1.05	-0.02	99.1%	0.8%	82.9%	35.8%	19.5%	11.3%
2	Tampa Bay Lightning	44.0	29.2	8.8	96.9	31	66	120	67	0.67	0.12	72.9%	7.6%	7.1%	1.2%	10.2%	5.1%
3	Florida Panthers	42.9	28.3	10.8	96.6	35	62	115	76	0.36	0.15	71.1%	9.7%	6.4%	1.0%	8.3%	4.1%
4	Buffalo Sabres	39.6	30.5	11.9	91.1	34	57	110	70	-0.03	-0.07	38.8%	9.6%	1.5%	0.1%	2.5%	1.1%
5	Toronto Maple Leafs	39.8	32.3	9.8	89.5	32	58	107	66	-0.01	0.09	29.2%	7.5%	1.2%	0.2%	2.2%	0.8%
6	Montreal Canadiens	38.5	31.4	12.1	89.1	32	57	110	69	-0.14	0.02	28.0%	6.8%	0.9%	0.1%	1.0%	0.5%
7	Ottawa Senators	36.3	38.3	7.4	80.0	25	55	102	61	-0.59	-0.06	3.8%	0.9%			0.2%
8	Detroit Red Wings	25.7	45.8	10.5	61.8	17	45	84	42	-1.88	-0.01
Metropolitan Division
1	Washington Capitals	50.6	21.3	10.1	111.2	49	62	130	88	0.91	0.04	99.3%	4.1%	68.5%	46.0%	19.1%	11.6%
2	New York Islanders	47.7	26.4	7.9	103.3	40	63	124	80	0.47	0.01	92.4%	19.7%	14.7%	8.3%	11.6%	5.8%
3	Pittsburgh Penguins	45.2	27.5	9.4	99.7	38	62	119	76	0.76	0.02	82.4%	31.6%	7.6%	3.3%	11.4%	6.2%
4	Philadelphia Flyers	43.6	27.5	10.9	98.1	39	59	120	79	0.29	-0.07	73.7%	36.6%	5.8%	2.7%	6.1%	2.9%
5	Carolina Hurricanes	44.7	30.5	6.8	96.2	37	59	113	73	0.30	-0.20	64.1%	34.2%	2.4%	0.9%	5.5%	2.7%
6	New York Rangers	41.6	31.3	9.0	92.3	33	59	113	73	0.10	0.03	41.4%	28.0%	0.9%	0.3%	2.3%	1.1%
7	Columbus Blue Jackets	35.4	35.9	10.7	81.5	26	55	107	60	-0.58	0.11	3.4%	2.5%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
8	New Jersey Devils	31.7	38.3	12.0	75.5	23	52	95	57	-1.10	0.11	0.4%	0.4%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Playoff Probabilities Report | Hockey-Reference.com

 

[Dekes For Days]

The "not sustainable" trope doesn't work the same way for recognized failures as it does for outlying successes.

Not even sure what you're trying to say. You think outlier stats are only unsustainable in cases where the outlier is positive?

 

[HamiltonNHL]

For the first time maybe ever, I agree with Mess!

dont waste time looking at what the other teams are doing. Focus on what it takes to get to 96-98pts. That's the only thing that matters.

Disagree. We arent getting 98 points.

Our best shot is finishing 3rd in the East in our weak division.

We need to beat MTL FLA BUF in the 2,4,2 games left with them.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

playoff odds
NHL Playoff Odds -MoneyPuck 2020 Playoff & Cup Odds

Looks like the team most likely to take the Leafs playoff spot is Montreal.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

Playoff Probabilities Report | Hockey-Reference.com

 

[Hclass47]

Does anyone disagree that a quality backup has to be sourced very soon or the season is at risk?

season is already at risk...

 

[Cleetus]

season is already at risk...

yes looks bleak, just got to get wins.... and a backup.... for a chance..

 

[HamiltonNHL]

Key games to squeak into third in East.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

of course we havent done well against those teams so far.

 

[zeke]

Does anyone disagree that a quality backup has to be sourced very soon or the season is at risk?

Hutch could well be that improved backup.

 

[Cleetus]

Hutch could well be that improved backup.

has not proven to be the case.... 0-5-1 , 4.55GAA, .876SVP not trending anywhere near "improved"

 

[ShaneFalco]

They'll make it