Friedman: Leafs and Nylander not close on extension

[TheBeastCoast]

His goals against numbers really aren't trending positively though. Still among the worst in the league. Look at his goals against rate when the Leafs are protecting a lead, and then tell me that he's a competent shutdown D. Three straight years with a GA/60 around 3.66. By comparison, Tanev was under 1.00 GA/60 up a goal. There's admittedly not a big sample size with that stat, each player only getting maybe a couple hundred minutes per year in that situation - but Morgan Rielly's goals against numbers are consistently terrible.

You admit that it is a small sample size but yet how many threads have you been running around constantly trumpeting the stat? I don't think any Leaf fan thinks Rielly is a shutdown calibre defensemen but he is absolutely not awful like you are trying to throw it out there as either. He needs more help on the backend as he can not do it all and while he is solid in his own zone he is still prone to the odd positioning blunder. Like anything on this site someone on the extreme end of the spectrum probably got you going and you in turn went to the complete opposite end of the spectrum. Your no more right then the person that thinks Rielly is a number 1 shutdown defensemen because you found one stat that says he is bad.

 

[DanM]

You admit that it is a small sample size but yet how many threads have you been running around constantly trumpeting the stat? I don't think any Leaf fan thinks Rielly is a shutdown calibre defensemen but he is absolutely not awful like you are trying to throw it out there as either. He needs more help on the backend as he can not do it all and while he is solid in his own zone he is still prone to the odd positioning blunder. Like anything on this site someone on the extreme end of the spectrum probably got you going and you in turn went to the complete opposite end of the spectrum. Your no more right then the person that thinks Rielly is a number 1 shutdown defensemen because you found one stat that says he is bad.

Rielly can't do it all, give him a proper pairing partner, and he doesn't have to cover for a weak side.

People are funny on HF

 

[major major]

You admit that it is a small sample size but yet how many threads have you been running around constantly trumpeting the stat? I don't think any Leaf fan thinks Rielly is a shutdown calibre defensemen but he is absolutely not awful like you are trying to throw it out there as either. He needs more help on the backend as he can not do it all and while he is solid in his own zone he is still prone to the odd positioning blunder. Like anything on this site someone on the extreme end of the spectrum probably got you going and you in turn went to the complete opposite end of the spectrum. Your no more right then the person that thinks Rielly is a number 1 shutdown defensemen because you found one stat that says he is bad.

It's goals against. That's not just one bad stat, it is the stat you'd want to look at to see how effective he has been defensively. You can try other stats for more predictive power, but if you're talking about past results, the ones that were relevant to the Leafs holding leads and winning games, it's goals that matters.

I think he offers a lot as a player he's just in the wrong role. I'd be happy to argue with anyone who doubts that Rielly offers a lot. And when Leafs fans say he is in the correct role (there actually are many), I'm going to continue to argue that he is not.

 

[tony d]

Got to think the Leafs have to be kicking the tires on signing him. To me trading Nylander could fetch them that good #1 defensemen they need to take the next step.

 

[Strangelove]

You took any of that post seriously???

Obviously not.

 

[BHD]

OK.

Back on topic (i.e., Nylander's contract status), and leave fans out of it.

 

[hector morrison]

The poster I was responding to was saying Kapanen or Brown for Tanev. i.e. crap for a proven NHL defenseman.

That might be so ,but can you provide any other proposals for Tanev?

 

[Yasuo]

JT has never played on a F core like the Jets have either, and would be a much better player than 80 points.

Barzal is a 90+ points player on the Jets?

 

[Cotton]

It's goals against. That's not just one bad stat, it is the stat you'd want to look at to see how effective he has been defensively. You can try other stats for more predictive power, but if you're talking about past results, the ones that were relevant to the Leafs holding leads and winning games, it's goals that matters.

I think he offers a lot as a player he's just in the wrong role. I'd be happy to argue with anyone who doubts that Rielly offers a lot. And when Leafs fans say he is in the correct role (there actually are many), I'm going to continue to argue that he is not.

And Columbus has a 3C Masquerading as a 1C, things are tough all over pal.

Pro tip, what the games, not the stats.

 

[loyaltotheend]

That very well may be true...I think the issue is that nobody quite knows, hence the vast majority of Leafs fans posts that I've read have expressed concern about needing another Top 4 defender. Given that Dermott has 37 NHL games and 125 professional games, it is probably fair to say he's still something of a question mark if he's being put in that Top 4 role.

My whole point is that there is limited salary cap room NEXT YEAR. So there's time to do "stuff" between now and then....but signing Nylander to a $6.5 million to $6.75 million contract significantly reduces one of the options. Something will have to give one way or another. Either one of the pending RFAs will have to be dealt, any defensive help that is brought in will likely be less well paid, or somebody carrying a lot of salary will have to be moved.

I agree that there is limited room that year, which I think your're meaning 2019-20? I'm sorry I didn't see that in your previous point, though I believe I replied to TWS and his usual scenario.

I can't see why trading a blossoming player like Nylander would be the choice made to ease that strain? Why wouldn't they move out salary somewhere else instead? Marleau will be going into his 3rd and final year of his deal. After July 1st 2019 his actual salary left to be paid out is a pittance. Could help someone needing to reach the floor. I'd much prefer giving a decent sweetener to take that contract than trade away WN. Maybe back to SJS to retire... If Dermott becomes what I think (you're assesment is fair imo too) there is no reason they HAVE to sign Gardiner again. Since the argument is the defence needs beefing up on the right, use that money on the otherside. (TWS is imagining there is a top-4 RHD available for $ that we can't sign unless we lose Nylander.)

Also, can't see how having Nylander under contract limits anything? His value in trade will be higher if we need to move him. No team prefers an unsigned RFA versus a 21-22 year old signed 5 or 6 years. If we're being reasonable here, no one thinks Nylander is signing for huge money, but a lot are really hoping it's more than TML can afford. So a young 1W (with potential to play C, though I'm willing to ignore that for this discussion) that's signed for years is not limiting anything.

Summary: your points are reasonable, I just think they can be dealt with in ways that don't involve losing a player of Nylander's calibre.

 

[loyaltotheend]

Personally, getting a year out of Nylander, IF the team is confident in the development of the youngsters or if they have a mid-season plan if the defense doesn't work out, is a fine idea. What is true, however, is that it limits flexibility in who they can sign going forward.

I'm not sure I agree that signing him increases his value, unless he's signed for a reasonable figure and he has a season commensurate with his last 2.



As a Canes fan, I feel ya....we are betting a bundle on the development of youngsters and rookies. There's always a risk in making any move. That's how GMs earn their pay. They make good decisions and they make bad decisions. Sometimes just by doing nothing.

The figures being discussed for Nylanders deal seem reasonable ... I don't know about you, but I haven't seen anything from his first two seasons to indicate he's not likely to repeat? If anything, there seems to be room to improve.

 

[Peggy]

Ehlers and MacKinnon contracts are good comps 6-6.3M for 7 years....give a signing bonus to help them for potential lock out losses.

I think nylander and ehlers are worth the same, but i think nylander gets more

Ehlers took close value to his current production(10 mil per 1 million)
Nylander is probably betting he'll be worth more next year

 

[loyaltotheend]

I think nylander and ehlers are worth the same, but i think nylander gets more

Ehlers took close value to his current production(10 mil per 1 million)
Nylander is probably betting he'll be worth more next year

Assuming the bolded is a typo I'm not understanding haha

I think you're right, in that they are quite comparable players, in a lot of ways. Nylander should probably get a little more on his deal just to account for the cap going up. Otherwise, that's one of his closest comparables in my opinion

 

[loyaltotheend]

Not sure what is cool about factually saying the Leafs have only 9.05 Million dollars invested in proven top 4 D men, and saying that number is not going to cut it if one wants to compete and win a cup. Quality D men cost money. You do not need to be much of a math major to know Nylander's contract will limit this. Not unless you think he is going to take a 5 M or less contract.

You're on these boards constantly, I'm sure you've read the various ways Leafs can shed some salary without dealing Nylander.

You proposed a scenario where there is a RHD available to be signed but the Leafs can't afford him due to Nylander limiting things. Using Gardiner's money on this pretend dman instead seems like a good way to go. But even if we pretend you're right, and they are forced to move Nylander, his value is higher with a contract...
Not really something we have to worry much about, since these dmen don't show up for the taking anyhow

 

[Peggy]

Assuming the bolded is a typo I'm not understanding haha

I think you're right, in that they are quite comparable players, in a lot of ways. Nylander should probably get a little more on his deal just to account for the cap going up. Otherwise, that's one of his closest comparables in my opinion

It's just my own personal philosophy on value of players

Ehlers is making ~6 mil and scoring ~60 points
But if he scores +70 he could be worth ~+6.5mil

Nylander is probably betting on being worth a ~70 point player next year
And also cap raising doesn't help negotiations

The i think, under cap era, nylander is worth ~6 mil. Can't get max value if you want that cup
Or wanna be part of a dynasty and get multile cups

 

[loyaltotheend]

It's just my own personal philosophy on value of players

Ehlers is making ~6 mil and scoring ~60 points
But if he scores +70 he could be worth ~+6.5mil

Nylander is probably betting on being worth a ~70 point player next year
And also cap raising doesn't help negotiations

The i think, under cap era, nylander is worth ~6 mil. Can't get max value if you want that cup
Or wanna be part of a dynasty and get multile cups

as far as rising cap, I just meant in terms of percentage of the cap. If Ehlers deal is say 10% of the cap, Nylander gets the same 10% but aav is slightly higher, that's all

I see what you mean about the points - dollars formula

Edit: Yeah I hope some part of him would rather try to build something big instead of going for max dollars he can get, but we will see. Perhaps I'd feel differently if it was my dollars lol

 

[ChurchOfMatthews]

Uh.........You don't actually watch, do you?

Every single game for the last 11 years. Show me some videos of Nylander being physical. He's a Grade A chicken. Go on, I'm waiting...

 

[lakai17]

Pay the kid. They need an offensive core of Tavares, Matthews, Marner and Nylander.....they need wingers for Matthews and Tavares.

 

[ffh]

as far as rising cap, I just meant in terms of percentage of the cap. If Ehlers deal is say 10% of the cap, Nylander gets the same 10% but aav is slightly higher, that's all

I see what you mean about the points - dollars formula

Edit: Yeah I hope some part of him would rather try to build something big instead of going for max dollars he can get, but we will see. Perhaps I'd feel differently if it was my dollars lol

Doesn't matter that ehlers signed last year his contract starts this year like Nylander. 6 aav is what toronto is probably offering and what Nylander might have to except.

 

[loyaltotheend]

Doesn't matter that ehlers signed last year his contract starts this year like Nylander. 6 aav is what toronto is probably offering and what Nylander might have to except.

You're right, I was thinking he already played a year of his new deal, but obviously not.

 

[Figgzfood]

Assuming the bolded is a typo I'm not understanding haha

I think you're right, in that they are quite comparable players, in a lot of ways. Nylander should probably get a little more on his deal just to account for the cap going up. Otherwise, that's one of his closest comparables in my opinion

I think the poster meant 10pts per million?

 

[Sparksrus3]

To me trading Nylander could fetch them that good #1 defensemen they need to take the next step.

O M G

Why not trade AM since you have JT now? He could probably fetch at least three #1 defensemen for you .

 

[A1LeafNation]

What sets apart the Leafs from the rest of the league is there wave after wave of offensive weapons.

We shouldnt rush a trade and risk screwing that up like Edmonton did.

But all Leafs fans and Leaf haters know this which is why everyone has this agenda to trade or not trade Nylander.

 

[Scott Stevens]

O M G

Why not trade AM since you have JT now? He could probably fetch at least three #1 defensemen for you .

If you could get the Matthews equivalent defenseman for him you absolutely do it

 

[CujosMask]

Every single game for the last 11 years. Show me some videos of Nylander being physical. He's a Grade A chicken. Go on, I'm waiting...

That's embarrassing, you'd think after 11 years you'd be able to understand what's going on.