For the Best Foreign Films Oscar category, there are only 3 I have not seen from the December shortlist, which are Roma, Ayka, and Never Look Away, so I believe I can make a fairly accurate assessment. While I am disappointed that some of my choices got left out, the list is a fair one.
Of all the nominees that I have seen, I fully expect to see Cold War and Shoplifters make the final list, because they are the two best films I have seen all year. Roma will likely make it too, due to the critical responses. That leaves 2 spots.
Personally, it will likely be between Burning, a slow-burn thriller mystery that has a lot to say, Never Look Away, a film about the aftermath of the Holocaust that I have not seen, The Guilty, a very well-written thriller that keeps the audience at the edge of its seat, and Capernaum, which is about displaced people, with a focus on children, in refugee camps. Now, I hope The Guilty will make it, because it is the best thriller I have seen in a long time, but I think the most likely choices will be Never Look Away, because the Academy voters are more inclined to vote for films about Hollywood, or to a larger extent, show business, and World War II and its aftermath, and Capernaum, due to its timeliness. I did not like Capernaum too much, because it is too heavy-handed and overly dramatic, but that is the same criticism I had for The Insult, and it still got a Oscar nomination last year. Burning, meanwhile, can be quite hypnotic, but I do not think it is the voters' cup of tea. I am also bored out of my mind with that one, as it to meanders no end.
Ayka could very well snag a spot, but the chances are slim, because almost nothing is known about it. Finally, The Birds of Passage is unlikely to garner any support. It has an interesting premise, but the storytelling is too stop-and-go after a while, and it merely scratches at the surface.
Thus, even though my personal choices will be Cold War, Shoplifters, Roma, The Guilty, and Never Look Away, the final list will likely Cold War, Shoplifters, Roma, Never Look Away, and Capernaum. I hope this help people's Oscar bingo.