Value of: Larkin availability, generally and particularly to Rangers

[bernmeister]

Uh no.
A shot at Jack Hughes for a 25 point defensemen, a 43 point forward, and a guy who's proven nothing in the NHL yet? Easy pass.

If you are reasonably certain you wind up top 3 w/chance to draft 1OA, then fine.
But drafting is a crapshoot. My offer is certain.
The AVs feel they got boned a couple of years back, as they lost some positions in draft slotting. More recently draft prior to last, NJ jumped crazy up the slot.

If you actually land 1-3, ok.
But excluding the x factor of injuries, I see modest improvement for Winged Wheel, as low as a slide of 5th, but as high as 8 or so, up from 6.

And a couple other points.
Skjei plays solid D and continues to grow w/experience. Resembles McDonagh before the injuries with his skating; so the 25 pts is not key here.
Buch has been misused by AV along with others, but the talent is obvious. You could do a lot worse making him Zadina's partner.
And as said, if Andersson was a generic kid out of college I get how there is more risk. There is always risk. But a kid playing in the Swedish leagues with men is not taking the soft road here.

 

[bernmeister]

As schedule permits, I will continue to provide courtesy answers to additional replies.

I have enough feedback of what I wanted.

I maintain Andersson = adequate for 2019 1st
Skjei + Buch + 2nd + cap, etc. was fair for Larkin.

Wings fans disagree and I do not see bridging the gap.
Thanks for feedback.

 

[bernmeister]

Classic Bern proposal. Get the 2 best assets while giving up more lesser assets. Classic. The value isn't even that slanted towards the Rangers (I actually think it's close to bad for the Rangers), since Skjei, Buchnevich and Andersson are all valuable pieces, but the Rangers are still getting the 2 best assets for a package of lesser assets.

Oh, one more thing.
while it is 2 best assets for a package of lesser assets, the totality of those assets, especially given strategic factors such as elc, etc., are not worth less than what was going the other way.

Sometimes you trade up to improve.
Sometimes it is the other way.
[rangers deal for Mateau to win cup some years back]

right now Rangers need more horses, need to trade depth for talent consolidation

given that reality, your criticism is unfounded.

 

[Henkka]

The offer --- the following package:
To DET: Larkin (rfa)* + DET 2019 1st unprotected + cap dump Vanek 3m expiring
for
To NYR: Skjei (rfa) + Andersson elc + Buchnevich elc + NYR 2019 2nd + Halverson
*preferably 8 years at 6m per, then immediately traded to NY

Drop the picks + Halverson and we could have a deal.

Larkin + Vanek
<>
Skjei + Andersson + Buchnevich

 

[Castle8130]

Detroit gets wrecked in this deal. NYR take this without question.

 

[Srsly]

I know that there’s more to the NHL than points and that Vanek has regressed compared to his Buffalo days, but that cap dump had 56pts last season. That’s right, he was responsible for 3 more points than any Rangers player. That’s not to say that he would translate 1 to 1 to the N.Y. roster, but it’s just food for thought.

I doubt that Detroit wants to move Larkin. He’s coming off a career season and has the potential to break out in a big way as responsibility begins to shift away from older players. With Zetterberg still being iffy on playing, the wings need his offense.

 

[DoobieDubas]

Brutal for the wings lol

Larkin and a 1st thats unprotected for a rebuilding team....so basically you want Hughes and larkin lol

 

[Baksfamous112]

Brutal for the wings lol

Larkin and a 1st thats unprotected for a rebuilding team....so basically you want Hughes and larkin lol

At best the pick will have a 17-18% chances to be Hughes. At worst? This is barely a top 10 pick. I wouldn’t take my chances (and bet) that this pick becomes Hughes.

 

[obey86]

If you are reasonably certain you wind up top 3 w/chance to draft 1OA, then fine.
But drafting is a crapshoot. My offer is certain.
The AVs feel they got boned a couple of years back, as they lost some positions in draft slotting. More recently draft prior to last, NJ jumped crazy up the slot.

If you actually land 1-3, ok.
But excluding the x factor of injuries, I see modest improvement for Winged Wheel, as low as a slide of 5th, but as high as 8 or so, up from 6.

And a couple other points.
Skjei plays solid D and continues to grow w/experience. Resembles McDonagh before the injuries with his skating; so the 25 pts is not key here.
Buch has been misused by AV along with others, but the talent is obvious. You could do a lot worse making him Zadina's partner.
And as said, if Andersson was a generic kid out of college I get how there is more risk. There is always risk. But a kid playing in the Swedish leagues with men is not taking the soft road here.

Yes, your offer is certain for a bunch of 2nd tier players and that's not what the Red Wings need to have a successful rebuild. They need players who can drive their lines/pairings and Larkin and a likely top ~5 pick give them a significantly better shot at finding those types of players than does trading for 2nd tier players.

And the Wings don't need to get Hughes to land an impactful player. There are quite a few good centers near the top of the draft next year.

 

[DoobieDubas]

At best the pick will have a 17-18% chances to be Hughes. At worst? This is barely a top 10 pick. I wouldn’t take my chances (and bet) that this pick becomes Hughes.

Yes the odds are the odds....

But DET finished 5th last, last year. I would think Buffalo/Ariz adds a few points to their totals. Ottawa and MTL will be the worst 2 teams but i can see DET being 3rd/4th worst which unprotected are great odds. This is ontop of giving up larkin lol...i just don't get it for wings fans.

Keep larkin and keep your draft pick ...

 

[bernmeister]

I know that there’s more to the NHL than points and that Vanek has regressed compared to his Buffalo days, but that cap dump had 56pts last season. That’s right, he was responsible for 3 more points than any Rangers player. That’s not to say that he would translate 1 to 1 to the N.Y. roster, but it’s just food for thought.

I doubt that Detroit wants to move Larkin. He’s coming off a career season and has the potential to break out in a big way as responsibility begins to shift away from older players. With Zetterberg still being iffy on playing, the wings need his offense.

I again apologize for Vanek, was looking for expiring body helping you out on cap. Happy to leave out altogether, would consider alternate actual cap dump.

 

[bernmeister]

At best the pick will have a 17-18% chances to be Hughes. At worst? This is barely a top 10 pick. I wouldn’t take my chances (and bet) that this pick becomes Hughes.

This, plus they get to immediately use the assets NY is sending. No time for development needed. NHL ready.
Anything COULD happen, but % wise if Wings have a bad year they do 5ish OA and a better year their bottom is 10ishOA, roughly.

Hughes will be long, long gone by then.

 

[bernmeister]

Yes the odds are the odds....

But DET finished 5th last, last year. I would think Buffalo/Ariz adds a few points to their totals. Ottawa and MTL will be the worst 2 teams but i can see DET being 3rd/4th worst which unprotected are great odds. This is ontop of giving up larkin lol...i just don't get it for wings fans.

Keep larkin and keep your draft pick ...

The production of 3 guys exceeds Larkin production, + ability to help deal w/cap on elc, Skjei at 5.25 x 6 will be cheaper than Larkin, etc., not that DET is cheap but I am saying this helps with more cap room.

It boils to, emotional fan attachment aside, what is the real ceiling for Larkin?
If he really is REALLY elite, that makes an argument to keep him.

He is still pushing premiere not elite, and I wouldn't say he is not a complete player, but the exceptional aspect of his game is his speed. That's it as to exceptional. If we didn't have Kreider and Krav, I would not have been drawn to him.

 

[CaptainCrosscheck]

Has to be a protected 1st, Wings wouldn't have traded the 2018 1st unprotected simply because the odds of them getting the 1st and Dahlin was lower than teams like Buffalo, Montreal and Ottawa.

 

[CaptainCrosscheck]

Also why does it have to be unprotected? If the Wings shouldn't be putting the cart before the horse, or Hughes in this case. Maybe it's because Bernie realizes that pick could become Hughes and that holds extra value than a protected pick would.

 

[DoobieDubas]

The production of 3 guys exceeds Larkin production, + ability to help deal w/cap on elc, Skjei at 5.25 x 6 will be cheaper than Larkin, etc., not that DET is cheap but I am saying this helps with more cap room.

It boils to, emotional fan attachment aside, what is the real ceiling for Larkin?
If he really is REALLY elite, that makes an argument to keep him.

He is still pushing premiere not elite, and I wouldn't say he is not a complete player, but the exceptional aspect of his game is his speed. That's it as to exceptional. If we didn't have Kreider and Krav, I would not have been drawn to him.

I just don't see trading a young trending upward player(face of their franchise and a speed demon) and a Unprotected top 5 pick for what you offered. I think det is starting a rebuild and will just wait IMO. I do give you ratings for analyzing your trade in detail and having points that are logical to back it up. I just don't see it happening, Cheers mate.

 

[ricky0034]

honestly this is just the wrong kind of deal entirely

even if Larkin and that first were on the table it sure as hell wouldn't be for a greater amount of lesser pieces,that kind of deal would be pretty much the opposite of what the Wings need

the only way it could ever happen is if some other team was looking to do the reverse of that,someone like a Eichel or Matthews type which the Rangers don't even have

 

[obey86]

The whole premise of this trade is stupid. Trading Larkin AND their potential/probable top 5 pick AS THEY ARE REBUILDING would be quite stupid. Is a roster anchored by Skjei, Andersson, and Buchnevich going to turn around the Red Wings? Hell no. So what the heck would be the point?

 

[LarKing]

The production of 3 guys exceeds Larkin production, + ability to help deal w/cap on elc, Skjei at 5.25 x 6 will be cheaper than Larkin, etc., not that DET is cheap but I am saying this helps with more cap room.

It boils to, emotional fan attachment aside, what is the real ceiling for Larkin?
If he really is REALLY elite, that makes an argument to keep him.

He is still pushing premiere not elite, and I wouldn't say he is not a complete player, but the exceptional aspect of his game is his speed. That's it as to exceptional. If we didn't have Kreider and Krav, I would not have been drawn to him.

No wings fans think he is elite. We think he has the best CHANCE at becoming elite out of all these players. And then that pick probably has the second best chance at least if it’s top 5.

 

[lilidk]

If Larkin asking for Taveres money then I will consider trading him. He is local boy, I hope he will give us discount

 

[north49er]

His availability is, he's not available.

I wouldn't disagree with you but his agent is Kurt Overcharge. That would make me nervous. As discussed in other threads the number of his clients resigning long term with the team that drafted them are limited.

 

[WingsMJN2965]

I wouldn't disagree with you but his agent is Kurt Overcharge. That would make me nervous. As discussed in other threads the number of his clients resigning long term with the team that drafted them are limited.

Both Khan and Custance reported that Detroit wants a 5 year deal and Larkin wants six.

 

[Goalie guy]

Well lets just put it this way as I did not read through all the post, Unless you have a proven young center from MI that is going to be the Wings next captain you are never getting Larkin out of Detroit. Value might be there but he means more to this rebuilding team than most players.

 

[BStinson]

Why do the Wings need depth? Based on all of the arm chair GMs on this site we have plenty of “depth” prospects (Hronek, Cholowski, Veleno, Berggren, McIsaac, Rasmussen) and then one elite (Zadina), however, Rasmussen looks good just not to stat watchers. Then you factor in Larkin, Mantha, Lil Bert, and AA as younger roster players. What we need is top shelf guys not depth.

 

[Claypool]

There’s not a single package the Rangers could put together to get Larkin. Sorry. Detroit will hang onto their 21 year-old future captain.