bernmeister
Registered User
The purpose of this thread is to ask 2 questions:
1, how much does the love of Larkin impact his theoretical potential availability
and
2, if he can be had for a reasonable overpayment, can NYR-DET structure a win-win.
Larkin availability
Obviously, he is not only a top asset, he is also a fan favorite. That properly should add a bit to the overpayment required to pry him loose, but how much is a bit? If a good deal on paper is seen, do Wings settle for profit? Or is there a posture of the moon is not enough, it would take the sun and the stars and the moon?
I see a strategic win win fit for both clubs, but the overpayment can't be so much as to gut an acquiring club. Larkin is all that, he may indeed be all that and a bag of chips, he commands that much. But we are not in or anywhere near MacKinnon, let alone McDavid territory.
NYR-DET
Assuming Larkin costs real overpayment, but not crazy massive overpayment, the Winged Wheel and Broadway Blueshirts should chat.
Larkin will command an overpayment, let's recognize that is a given. What is negotiable is how much and the other currency [pieces] in the deal impacting that.
Red Wings need:
help across the board, youth is nice, they have some but it is not ready, and can barely finagle the cap putting Franzen on IR [currently 2.8ish m per CapFriendly]. Quality elcs are highly valued here as well as league wide.
Rangers need:
upgrades and talent acquisition, preferably younger to ease molding of a new younger core; facilitated consolidation of assets to upgrade/better manage talent pool
The offer --- the following package:
To DET: Larkin (rfa)* + DET 2019 1st unprotected + cap dump Vanek 3m expiring
for
To NYR: Skjei (rfa) + Andersson elc + Buchnevich elc + NYR 2019 2nd + Halverson
*preferably 8 years at 6m per, then immediately traded to NY
analysis: Detroit
-- money standpoint: Skjei renew cost will be closer to 5, Larkin closer to 6, so that is real $ saved. If Howard dealt, disappointing 2nd rounder Halverson is a freebie throw in who, if he can cut the mustard enough, is another body to backup starter Bernier; not a long term solution but possible stopgap saving $ while Howie nets assets. Andersson is immediate top 6 who replaces Larkin at 1C, solid Swedish background, looks good to pair with Zadina. Add elc Buchnevich, who plays either W. Losing Vanek's $3m is addition by subtraction.
-- talent standpoint: Larkin atm is the best single piece, but totality of what is delivered is clearly talent add to Red Wings. $ and cap mgmt aside, solid adds at LW, C, and W. Andersson and Buchnevich are solid bets, and Skjei looks a lot like a rough version of McDonagh pre all the injuries. Surrender of 1st is somewhat offset by Rangers 2nd, gives Detroit 3 2nds for next year, so possibility to move back into 1st round is not a given, but plausible. Andersson was 7OA. With this deal, Detroit will be improved but still likely a non-playoff [eg lottery] team. That pick COULD go very high, but it could be later. If we split the possibles it could be close to this year's 6OA, and Andersson is full 3 years elc ready and available to play NOW, no lost time developing.
analysis: New York
-- money standpoint: no issues, Rangers have cap, Larkin is a long term build, and Vanek expiring is not a concern,
-- talent standpoint: Skjei is our best LD, but this year does not count, we are positioning ourselves to emerge the following year (best case scenario). We have multiple LD prospects and we want to be ready to make those available quickly once someone emerges, so value of Skjei as a downpayment in Larkin deal is smart. We will showcase Smith and not overuse Staal at 3LD with an eye to replace at some pt next year.
Andersson, we hardly knew ye, but we are tying our cart to Chytil, so Andy is expendable if someone pays enough. Andy + for 2019 1st works for NY.
Buch and the 2nd are necessary sacrifices.
Halverson is an afterthought, we have plenty of G prospects as we wait for Shesty.
This brings us to Larkin.
I make no apologies whatsoever for my adamant insistence that , all things equal, we try Boo Nieves, who in a vacuum is clearly NOT a 1C, as a pivot with Kreider, who is our 1LW regardless of linemates, to see what kind of chemistry is possible, and if terrif speed x2 + the right RW = synergy, as Boo would only have to support his Ws, not drive the offensive play for them. However, Dylan's acquisition would not be all things =. He is an elite skater, a la Kreider, though only 6'1", possibly filling out a tad more at 21. Unlike Nieves, he can already shoot. Despite off year last season he is worth the cost if it is this and no more. Kravtsov will make it a dominant line.
Also looking ahead, this could help NY win the Panarin sweepstakes by making Fs deeper and NY more attractive.
Kreider - Larkin - Kravtsov
Chytil - Hayes - Panarin
Vesey - Nieves - Fast
Gropp - Howden - Lettieri
with some current Fs moved for RD help or picks
comments.... [constructive analysis welcomed]
1, how much does the love of Larkin impact his theoretical potential availability
and
2, if he can be had for a reasonable overpayment, can NYR-DET structure a win-win.
Larkin availability
Obviously, he is not only a top asset, he is also a fan favorite. That properly should add a bit to the overpayment required to pry him loose, but how much is a bit? If a good deal on paper is seen, do Wings settle for profit? Or is there a posture of the moon is not enough, it would take the sun and the stars and the moon?
I see a strategic win win fit for both clubs, but the overpayment can't be so much as to gut an acquiring club. Larkin is all that, he may indeed be all that and a bag of chips, he commands that much. But we are not in or anywhere near MacKinnon, let alone McDavid territory.
NYR-DET
Assuming Larkin costs real overpayment, but not crazy massive overpayment, the Winged Wheel and Broadway Blueshirts should chat.
Larkin will command an overpayment, let's recognize that is a given. What is negotiable is how much and the other currency [pieces] in the deal impacting that.
Red Wings need:
help across the board, youth is nice, they have some but it is not ready, and can barely finagle the cap putting Franzen on IR [currently 2.8ish m per CapFriendly]. Quality elcs are highly valued here as well as league wide.
Rangers need:
upgrades and talent acquisition, preferably younger to ease molding of a new younger core; facilitated consolidation of assets to upgrade/better manage talent pool
The offer --- the following package:
To DET: Larkin (rfa)* + DET 2019 1st unprotected + cap dump Vanek 3m expiring
for
To NYR: Skjei (rfa) + Andersson elc + Buchnevich elc + NYR 2019 2nd + Halverson
*preferably 8 years at 6m per, then immediately traded to NY
analysis: Detroit
-- money standpoint: Skjei renew cost will be closer to 5, Larkin closer to 6, so that is real $ saved. If Howard dealt, disappointing 2nd rounder Halverson is a freebie throw in who, if he can cut the mustard enough, is another body to backup starter Bernier; not a long term solution but possible stopgap saving $ while Howie nets assets. Andersson is immediate top 6 who replaces Larkin at 1C, solid Swedish background, looks good to pair with Zadina. Add elc Buchnevich, who plays either W. Losing Vanek's $3m is addition by subtraction.
-- talent standpoint: Larkin atm is the best single piece, but totality of what is delivered is clearly talent add to Red Wings. $ and cap mgmt aside, solid adds at LW, C, and W. Andersson and Buchnevich are solid bets, and Skjei looks a lot like a rough version of McDonagh pre all the injuries. Surrender of 1st is somewhat offset by Rangers 2nd, gives Detroit 3 2nds for next year, so possibility to move back into 1st round is not a given, but plausible. Andersson was 7OA. With this deal, Detroit will be improved but still likely a non-playoff [eg lottery] team. That pick COULD go very high, but it could be later. If we split the possibles it could be close to this year's 6OA, and Andersson is full 3 years elc ready and available to play NOW, no lost time developing.
analysis: New York
-- money standpoint: no issues, Rangers have cap, Larkin is a long term build, and Vanek expiring is not a concern,
-- talent standpoint: Skjei is our best LD, but this year does not count, we are positioning ourselves to emerge the following year (best case scenario). We have multiple LD prospects and we want to be ready to make those available quickly once someone emerges, so value of Skjei as a downpayment in Larkin deal is smart. We will showcase Smith and not overuse Staal at 3LD with an eye to replace at some pt next year.
Andersson, we hardly knew ye, but we are tying our cart to Chytil, so Andy is expendable if someone pays enough. Andy + for 2019 1st works for NY.
Buch and the 2nd are necessary sacrifices.
Halverson is an afterthought, we have plenty of G prospects as we wait for Shesty.
This brings us to Larkin.
I make no apologies whatsoever for my adamant insistence that , all things equal, we try Boo Nieves, who in a vacuum is clearly NOT a 1C, as a pivot with Kreider, who is our 1LW regardless of linemates, to see what kind of chemistry is possible, and if terrif speed x2 + the right RW = synergy, as Boo would only have to support his Ws, not drive the offensive play for them. However, Dylan's acquisition would not be all things =. He is an elite skater, a la Kreider, though only 6'1", possibly filling out a tad more at 21. Unlike Nieves, he can already shoot. Despite off year last season he is worth the cost if it is this and no more. Kravtsov will make it a dominant line.
Also looking ahead, this could help NY win the Panarin sweepstakes by making Fs deeper and NY more attractive.
Kreider - Larkin - Kravtsov
Chytil - Hayes - Panarin
Vesey - Nieves - Fast
Gropp - Howden - Lettieri
with some current Fs moved for RD help or picks
comments.... [constructive analysis welcomed]
