Value of: Larkin availability, generally and particularly to Rangers

[bernmeister]

I just don't see trading a young trending upward player(face of their franchise and a speed demon) and a Unprotected top 5 pick for what you offered. I think det is starting a rebuild and will just wait IMO. I do give you ratings for analyzing your trade in detail and having points that are logical to back it up. I just don't see it happening, Cheers mate.

cheers, thanks for constructive posts, agree or disagree

 

[bernmeister]

Also why does it have to be unprotected? If the Wings shouldn't be putting the cart before the horse, or Hughes in this case. Maybe it's because Bernie realizes that pick could become Hughes and that holds extra value than a protected pick would.

It is an imprecise, subjective juggling act and as such clearly room for people not to be on the same page.

Andersson was 7OA. I postulate Detroit's pick could be ballpark same slot. Could it fall and get Hughes? Yes, possible, statistically not likely. Could still get a high C if Det keeps the pick and is at 5 or so.
The flip side of the coin is Andersson is ready to play NOW. No development time needed, and that is a given certainty, not a possible x factor.

 

[CaptainCrosscheck]

Then make it first overall protected since it likely will be around 5.

 

[bernmeister]

The whole premise of this trade is stupid. Trading Larkin AND their potential/probable top 5 pick AS THEY ARE REBUILDING would be quite stupid. Is a roster anchored by Skjei, Andersson, and Buchnevich going to turn around the Red Wings? Hell no. So what the heck would be the point?

The point is Andersson now is decent value for the pick;
Skjei + Buch + NY 2nd + cap help incl being elcs all are solid build moves.

Let's get real. A McDavid or possibly Dahlin add is not gonna single handedly turn any franchise fully around overnight, all by himself.

And Larkin is not in that stratosphere.

I hear the need to get high end elites. If they can fall in your lap fine.
I remember how Pens tanked for Mario decades ago.
That can't be manipulated these days.

You can sign a JTavares when free agency hits.
You can offer enough intangibles to attract top talent, but even then, real elite is tough. We may get Panarin. You may get Trouba.

But a shot here and there to get the brightest bauble is a tough strategy to execute and make work.

 

[bernmeister]

Both Khan and Custance reported that Detroit wants a 5 year deal and Larkin wants six.

The kid is young enough I'm willing to give him 8 on a sign and trade if you oblige and he pushes annual rate to 6ish.

Skjei is 6 years just over 5.
Again, Wings not cheap, not a skin flint owner. But it is a hard cap reality, faster that monkey off your back, the better your roster flexibility.

 

[bernmeister]

Well lets just put it this way as I did not read through all the post, Unless you have a proven young center from MI that is going to be the Wings next captain you are never getting Larkin out of Detroit. Value might be there but he means more to this rebuilding team than most players.

Thank you.
All I can address is value.

This is why I phrased the title as is.
Larkin favorite son factor may be too much, and if we are clear that is the consensus, that is to be acknowledged.

 

[bernmeister]

Then make it first overall protected since it likely will be around 5.

Doing that is not off the table, but I have explained why I consider the deal proposed as balanced.

If you wanted to go THERE, you would have to give me something for it. Also, how much protection do you want to buy?
Top 3? Top 5? More?

 

[ricky0034]

Why do the Wings need depth? Based on all of the arm chair GMs on this site we have plenty of “depth” prospects (Hronek, Cholowski, Veleno, Berggren, McIsaac, Rasmussen) and then one elite (Zadina), however, Rasmussen looks good just not to stat watchers. Then you factor in Larkin, Mantha, Lil Bert, and AA as younger roster players. What we need is top shelf guys not depth.

yeah stop ignoring this op

you keep mentioning stuff like ELCs and Andersson being ready now but what good does any of that do for a team that has zero elite talent?

even disregarding the availability of Larkin and the pick the very premise of this thread is flawed down to it's core,it's literally the opposite of what the Wings would need in a trade

 

[obey86]

The point is Andersson now is decent value for the pick;
Skjei + Buch + NY 2nd + cap help incl being elcs all are solid build moves.

Let's get real. A McDavid or possibly Dahlin add is not gonna single handedly turn any franchise fully around overnight, all by himself.

And Larkin is not in that stratosphere.

I hear the need to get high end elites. If they can fall in your lap fine.
I remember how Pens tanked for Mario decades ago.
That can't be manipulated these days.

You can sign a JTavares when free agency hits.
You can offer enough intangibles to attract top talent, but even then, real elite is tough. We may get Panarin. You may get Trouba.

But a shot here and there to get the brightest bauble is a tough strategy to execute and make work.

Dude, you just don’t get it. THE RED WINGS DO NOT NEED MORE 2ND TIER TALENT, they need potential star players if they want to turn things around. Keeping their best young player and their likely top 5 pick gives them a significantly better chance at that then trading quality for quantity does. Period.

All of your other reasoning (ELC contracts, save some cap space, player is ready now) is meaningless because my first paragraph is simply all that matters.

 

[HisNoodliness]

Larkin isn't available unless you overpay. You included our 1st which is probably our most valuable asset outside of Larkin and Zadina, and then didn't overpay. Terrible trade idea... Lock it up.

 

[bernmeister]

Dude, you just don’t get it. THE RED WINGS DO NOT NEED MORE 2ND TIER TALENT, they need potential star players if they want to turn things around. Keeping their best young player and their likely top 5 pick gives them a significantly better chance at that then trading quality for quantity does. Period.

All of your other reasoning (ELC contracts, save some cap space, player is ready now) is meaningless because my first paragraph is simply all that matters.

Before responding I want to emphasize here that this is a difference of opinion where you can make a case either way.

Your point was the Wings go nowhere ultimately without elite talent. Let's set aside the reasonable posture of doing everything else you can to maximize the entire rest of the club in every other way so that when opportunity knocks, you can strike. You want to take initiative, which is to be applauded, and focus on elite talent acquisition. You insist on the direct approach, because you feel you have some control in the matter, by drafting in the lowest rank with the best value.

It is not that there is anything wrong with this.

But there is a problem you are not acknowledging. There is a lottery system. And there are other factors, including injuries not only to your club but others. In short, it is an illusion that you control getting to the top selection. Yeah, I'm with you that it is significant IF IF IF you actually manage to get it, then your chances go up, although even then, you are less likely to have a generational guy like McDavid or Dahlin available, only a solid elite; you also have to be careful not to pull an Edmonton. In the case of 2019, we can agree Hughes is consensus #1 and appears higher elite pushing generational.

But as someone else pointed out, if you finish 1st, you STILL have ONLY a 17% or so chance to get that top pick in the lottery. I am not an expert here, but my understanding is they don't further weight the balls to help you out even further. That is, it doesn't matter if you finished last in points with 3 wins, or 33 wins, you are last, that is it, you have 17% chance. Period.

Now while I am not saying my 3 guys are elite potential, they have more potential than second tier bottom line, which is what you suggest. Skjei has superior + skating, and projects as McD w/o injuries; Buchnevich, stifled by AV, showed flashes of creativity and ability which has him in demand; and Andersson is unproven, but still commanded a 7OA selection.

Moving on more generally, sometimes a superior/elite guy says, thanks, but now I wanna go here. And his insistence directs a result, influencing how much the acquiring team pays to accommodate getting him sooner than later. [both sides deal, b'c waiting until that player's contract is up leaves the current club with nothing when he walks]

Or there may be other scenarios where a guy doesn't have a specific destination, but wants out, for whatever reason.

When that opportunity comes around, you have to have the assets to make that acquisition.

That is not something you control either, but it is more foreseeable as something you can conceivably manufacture. Proof? Leafs just got Tavares, coming home. Nylander, not elite, maybe available. Matthews, arguably at least borderline elite, does he become available at all, presumably for an overpayment?

Okay, now it will hurt more than wince to pay to get Matthews. Less for a Nylander upgrade. And they are not 100% available. But they are conceivable if you are willing to overpay more than the bidding of the rest of the market.

That is opposed to 17% which you do not control.

So adding more overall talent and a high pick for one better player and a better pick is not a bad strategy, again, intangibles aside.

If Wings fans want to go this way, fine, but please understand what I am saying.

I like Larkin, but I would only offer this deal b'c I want to see what he looks like with Kreider and Kravtsov.

 

[bernmeister]

Larkin isn't available unless you overpay. You included our 1st which is probably our most valuable asset outside of Larkin and Zadina, and then didn't overpay. Terrible trade idea... Lock it up.

As I said in post 1, there is overpay and then there is crazy massive overpay, like what McDavid gets.

Despite several Ranger fans considering it too much, I consider what I offered, to be reasonable, nominal overpayment.

Some of the deal has to be scrapped -- Vanek. Whether or not NY extends further cap help is secondary.

But if you want more for your part of the core, it depends on how much more, and seeking a McDavid like killing is not happening.

 

[Critical13]

I would want Pionk, Shety, Chytil and a 1st for Larkin+1st and even then, the fact that no Larkin on the wings makes Hughes a real possibility makes me think it still isn’t enough.

 

[Henkka]

Both Khan and Custance reported that Detroit wants a 5 year deal and Larkin wants six.

Make it 5½ years!

 

[obey86]

Before responding I want to emphasize here that this is a difference of opinion where you can make a case either way.

Your point was the Wings go nowhere ultimately without elite talent. Let's set aside the reasonable posture of doing everything else you can to maximize the entire rest of the club in every other way so that when opportunity knocks, you can strike. You want to take initiative, which is to be applauded, and focus on elite talent acquisition. You insist on the direct approach, because you feel you have some control in the matter, by drafting in the lowest rank with the best value.

It is not that there is anything wrong with this.

But there is a problem you are not acknowledging. There is a lottery system. And there are other factors, including injuries not only to your club but others. In short, it is an illusion that you control getting to the top selection. Yeah, I'm with you that it is significant IF IF IF you actually manage to get it, then your chances go up, although even then, you are less likely to have a generational guy like McDavid or Dahlin available, only a solid elite; you also have to be careful not to pull an Edmonton. In the case of 2019, we can agree Hughes is consensus #1 and appears higher elite pushing generational.

But as someone else pointed out, if you finish 1st, you STILL have ONLY a 17% or so chance to get that top pick in the lottery. I am not an expert here, but my understanding is they don't further weight the balls to help you out even further. That is, it doesn't matter if you finished last in points with 3 wins, or 33 wins, you are last, that is it, you have 17% chance. Period.

Now while I am not saying my 3 guys are elite potential, they have more potential than second tier bottom line, which is what you suggest. Skjei has superior + skating, and projects as McD w/o injuries; Buchnevich, stifled by AV, showed flashes of creativity and ability which has him in demand; and Andersson is unproven, but still commanded a 7OA selection.

Moving on more generally, sometimes a superior/elite guy says, thanks, but now I wanna go here. And his insistence directs a result, influencing how much the acquiring team pays to accommodate getting him sooner than later. [both sides deal, b'c waiting until that player's contract is up leaves the current club with nothing when he walks]

Or there may be other scenarios where a guy doesn't have a specific destination, but wants out, for whatever reason.

When that opportunity comes around, you have to have the assets to make that acquisition.

That is not something you control either, but it is more foreseeable as something you can conceivably manufacture. Proof? Leafs just got Tavares, coming home. Nylander, not elite, maybe available. Matthews, arguably at least borderline elite, does he become available at all, presumably for an overpayment?

Okay, now it will hurt more than wince to pay to get Matthews. Less for a Nylander upgrade. And they are not 100% available. But they are conceivable if you are willing to overpay more than the bidding of the rest of the market.

That is opposed to 17% which you do not control.

So adding more overall talent and a high pick for one better player and a better pick is not a bad strategy, again, intangibles aside.

If Wings fans want to go this way, fine, but please understand what I am saying.

I like Larkin, but I would only offer this deal b'c I want to see what he looks like with Kreider and Kravtsov.

You're still not getting it.

Ok, so in your scenario the Red Wings finish dead last and their chance at Hughes is only 17%. Ok. But they still have a 100% chance at an elite prospect who has the possibility to turn into a star, even if they don't get pick #1 and Hughes. What are their chances at acquiring that player if they trade Larkin ALONG with their 1st round pick ? Give you a hint, it's 0%. Now, which route gives the Red Wings significantly better odds of getting an elite prospect in your hypothetical scenario? The 100% route, or the 0% route?

Just give it up, this is a terrible trade proposal from the Wings point of view. The Red Wings don't need 40 point forwards or 25 point defensemen, they have plenty of players capable of doing that on the roster already. None of these players move the needle in the Red Wings rebuild, it would just set them back.

 

[Henkka]

Buchnevich - 2019 1st - Zadina
Bertuzzi - Andersson - Mantha
Athanasiou - Rasmussen - E.Svechnikov
Berggren - Veleno - G.Smith

Skjei - Hronek
Cholowski - Lindström
McIsaac

Can't deny I wouldn't like that kind of kid core.

 

[obey86]

Buchnevich - 2019 1st - Zadina
Bertuzzi - Andersson - Mantha
Athanasiou - Rasmussen - E.Svechnikov
Berggren - Veleno - G.Smith

Skjei - Hronek
Cholowski - Lindström
McIsaac

Can't deny I wouldn't like that kind of kid core.

I'd much rather have the following, Downgrade at #2 center and #1 D for a 40 point winger in Buchnevich? Yeah, no thanks.

Rasmussen - 2018 1st - Zadina
Bertuzzi - Larkin - Mantha
Athanasiou - Veleno - E.Svechnikov
Berggren - ??? - G.Smith

2019 1st - Hronek
Cholowski - Lindström
McIsaac

 

[Henkka]

I'd much rather have the following, Downgrade at #2 center and #1 D for a 40 point winger in Buchnevich? Yeah, no thanks.

Rasmussen - 2018 1st - Zadina
Bertuzzi - Larkin - Mantha
Athanasiou - Veleno - E.Svechnikov
Berggren - ??? - G.Smith

2019 1st - Hronek
Cholowski - Lindström
McIsaac

And what a heck is that 2018 1st? Cloned Veleno?

 

[LarKing]

As I said in post 1, there is overpay and then there is crazy massive overpay, like what McDavid gets.

Despite several Ranger fans considering it too much, I consider what I offered, to be reasonable, nominal overpayment.

Some of the deal has to be scrapped -- Vanek. Whether or not NY extends further cap help is secondary.

But if you want more for your part of the core, it depends on how much more, and seeking a McDavid like killing is not happening.

You’re not overpaying at all. You’re getting a top ten pick at least + a young #1 center for a second pairing defenseman, second line forward, and a good prospect. You keep going in circles here but:

1. You are NOT overpaying, you’re not even paying fair value
2. We do not want quantity like you are offering. None of these guys are bad pieces but they’re not at the level of Larkin or likely that pick
3. We have no center depth without Larkin

 

[LarKing]

And what a heck is that 2018 1st? Cloned Veleno?

We’re going to go back in time and trade up for Kotkaniemi. Then one timeline will have him and one will have Zadina. We’ll steal him from that timeline and then have both.

Obviously.

 

[obey86]

And what a heck is that 2018 1st? Cloned Veleno?

What the heck is the 2019 1st in your deal? If we acquire the Rangers players in your hypothetical lineup using the trade scenario of this thread .... that pick belongs to the Rangers, not the Red Wings.

I meant 2019 and 2020.

 

[Henkka]

What the heck is the 2019 1st in your deal? If we acquire the Rangers players in your hypothetical lineup using the trade scenario of this thread .... that pick belongs to the Rangers, not the Red Wings.

I meant 2019 and 2020.

Reading the discussion will help. My scenario was same players in the trade without any draft picks.

Larkin + Vanek <> Skjei + Buchnevich + Andersson

We will draft 2019 a center for the 1st line.

 

[obey86]

Reading the discussion will help. My scenario was same players in the trade without any draft picks.

Larkin + Vanek <> Skjei + Buchnevich + Andersson

We will draft 2019 a center for the 1st line.

There was no discussion to read. The posting of your hypothetical lineup was not part of a larger discussion (ie not a quoted response). It was simply a single post in the thread.

 

[The Red Line]

Buchnevich - 2019 1st - Zadina
Bertuzzi - Andersson - Mantha
Athanasiou - Rasmussen - E.Svechnikov
Berggren - Veleno - G.Smith

Skjei - Hronek
Cholowski - Lindström
McIsaac

Can't deny I wouldn't like that kind of kid core.

In this scenario, the Wings wouldn't have a 2019 first round pick, because it was included in this terrible Larkin trade.

 

[Shaman464]

There’s not a single package the Rangers could put together to get Larkin. Sorry. Detroit will hang onto their 21 year-old future captain.

All their firsts for their next 5 seasons and their top 5 players/prospects under 25 would be my starting point.