Value of: Larkin availability, generally and particularly to Rangers

[Kupo]

Ohhh a Bern Proposal! Yay!

 

[blinkman360]

 

[WingsMJN2965]

I consider Rangers to be a dumpster fire even with this trade. Our defense would be atrocious. Then you have Ottawa, Buffalo is going to be a question mark even with Dahlin. On paper Montreal seems pretty bad. While it's possible Wings finish in the top 3 (without lottery help), I think it's just as possible for the wings to finish outside of that. But I'll admit, I haven't heard anything on the Zetterberg LTIR.

Basically Zetterberg barely practiced at all last year because his back is so messed up he's always dealing with pain. He said he was going to decide if he was gonna play in July, and now he's saying he still hasn't decided.

I think in the end, he tries to tough it out one more year. That may still mean that he goes to training camp and decides he can't deal with it and never plays. I think if he weren't at least gonna try, he would've already said he's done.

... Or it's all one big show to ensure the league approves him for LTIR.

 

[FatGiraffe]

I enjoy Bern proposals, they are outside the box, he explains his reasoning, and they are a nice change from every other proposal on here. That said, Detroit doesn't do this.

 

[tradenashnow]

The purpose of this thread is to ask 2 questions:
1, how much does the love of Larkin impact his theoretical potential availability
and
2, if he can be had for a reasonable overpayment, can NYR-DET structure a win-win.

Larkin availability
Obviously, he is not only a top asset, he is also a fan favorite. That properly should add a bit to the overpayment required to pry him loose, but how much is a bit? If a good deal on paper is seen, do Wings settle for profit? Or is there a posture of the moon is not enough, it would take the sun and the stars and the moon?
I see a strategic win win fit for both clubs, but the overpayment can't be so much as to gut an acquiring club. Larkin is all that, he may indeed be all that and a bag of chips, he commands that much. But we are not in or anywhere near MacKinnon, let alone McDavid territory.

NYR-DET
Assuming Larkin costs real overpayment, but not crazy massive overpayment, the Winged Wheel and Broadway Blueshirts should chat.
Larkin will command an overpayment, let's recognize that is a given. What is negotiable is how much and the other currency [pieces] in the deal impacting that.

Red Wings need:
help across the board, youth is nice, they have some but it is not ready, and can barely finagle the cap putting Franzen on IR [currently 2.8ish m per CapFriendly]. Quality elcs are highly valued here as well as league wide.

Rangers need:
upgrades and talent acquisition, preferably younger to ease molding of a new younger core; facilitated consolidation of assets to upgrade/better manage talent pool


The offer --- the following package:
To DET: Larkin (rfa)* + DET 2019 1st unprotected + cap dump Vanek 3m expiring
for
To NYR: Skjei (rfa) + Andersson elc + Buchnevich elc + NYR 2019 2nd + Halverson
*preferably 8 years at 6m per, then immediately traded to NY

analysis: Detroit
-- money standpoint: Skjei renew cost will be closer to 5, Larkin closer to 6, so that is real $ saved. If Howard dealt, disappointing 2nd rounder Halverson is a freebie throw in who, if he can cut the mustard enough, is another body to backup starter Bernier; not a long term solution but possible stopgap saving $ while Howie nets assets. Andersson is immediate top 6 who replaces Larkin at 1C, solid Swedish background, looks good to pair with Zadina. Add elc Buchnevich, who plays either W. Losing Vanek's $3m is addition by subtraction.
-- talent standpoint: Larkin atm is the best single piece, but totality of what is delivered is clearly talent add to Red Wings. $ and cap mgmt aside, solid adds at LW, C, and W. Andersson and Buchnevich are solid bets, and Skjei looks a lot like a rough version of McDonagh pre all the injuries. Surrender of 1st is somewhat offset by Rangers 2nd, gives Detroit 3 2nds for next year, so possibility to move back into 1st round is not a given, but plausible. Andersson was 7OA. With this deal, Detroit will be improved but still likely a non-playoff [eg lottery] team. That pick COULD go very high, but it could be later. If we split the possibles it could be close to this year's 6OA, and Andersson is full 3 years elc ready and available to play NOW, no lost time developing.

analysis: New York
-- money standpoint: no issues, Rangers have cap, Larkin is a long term build, and Vanek expiring is not a concern,
-- talent standpoint: Skjei is our best LD, but this year does not count, we are positioning ourselves to emerge the following year (best case scenario). We have multiple LD prospects and we want to be ready to make those available quickly once someone emerges, so value of Skjei as a downpayment in Larkin deal is smart. We will showcase Smith and not overuse Staal at 3LD with an eye to replace at some pt next year.
Andersson, we hardly knew ye, but we are tying our cart to Chytil, so Andy is expendable if someone pays enough. Andy + for 2019 1st works for NY.
Buch and the 2nd are necessary sacrifices.
Halverson is an afterthought, we have plenty of G prospects as we wait for Shesty.

This brings us to Larkin.
I make no apologies whatsoever for my adamant insistence that , all things equal, we try Boo Nieves, who in a vacuum is clearly NOT a 1C, as a pivot with Kreider, who is our 1LW regardless of linemates, to see what kind of chemistry is possible, and if terrif speed x2 + the right RW = synergy, as Boo would only have to support his Ws, not drive the offensive play for them. However, Dylan's acquisition would not be all things =. He is an elite skater, a la Kreider, though only 6'1", possibly filling out a tad more at 21. Unlike Nieves, he can already shoot. Despite off year last season he is worth the cost if it is this and no more. Kravtsov will make it a dominant line.

Also looking ahead, this could help NY win the Panarin sweepstakes by making Fs deeper and NY more attractive.
Kreider - Larkin - Kravtsov
Chytil - Hayes - Panarin
Vesey - Nieves - Fast
Gropp - Howden - Lettieri

with some current Fs moved for RD help or picks

comments.... [constructive analysis welcomed]

Bern, take a break. You're starting to become a loon. One, Detroit is rebuilding and they will do so around Larkin. Two, Rangers aren't giving up all that for Larkin. They are rebuilding also.

 

[SnuggaRUDE]

If the Rangers wanted to make a quantity v quality deal for Buffalo's 1st I think there's opportunity. Rangers might need to take back a couple minor league contracts to make it work out.

 

[Copenhagen91]

Wow this is hot garbage.

 

[Syckle78]

Skjei Buch and Andersson for the 1st? Of course you would

Nope.

 

[Syckle78]

LarKing is exercising his right to pretty much say he isn't moving Dylan regardless of almost any overpayment.

We need to hear from DET fans, so we get an idea of how much overpayment Larkin commands.

I quoted what I thought was liveable, and explained why.

If Wing fans want moon AND stars AND sun, no deal.
I will go as far as I did, no more.

Larkin is the most unavailable non-upper echelon player in the league. Home grown,face of franchise young center. He's immensely popular on and off the ice. He's not available.

 

[ShelbyZ]

The only way this deal makes sense is if the Red Wings are being nice and including a generous compensation for the Brendan Smith fleecing.

 

[Tatar Shots]

I got to hand it to you, this is better than your Larkin + Mantha for Marc Staal proposal. So at least there is that?

 

[bernmeister]

I don't know if it would be a top 3 pick after you get back those 3 pieces. It'll still be a top 10 which is bad for the Wings.

This ^.
Det would be better than last year. Obviously in a lottery slotting can go up or down, but %wise it would be close to second half top ten [5-10]. Thus Andersson would be fair compensation just for he 1st. Plus he is ready at full elc now, no waiting 2 years for him to be ready.

I wouldn’t. Don’t see any of those guys topping out as more than good pieces. We have good pieces in spades, but basically zero elite talent. Larkin and that 1st are two of our best shots at it. Not moving either for lesser pieces.

Larkin is not yet elite talent. He's 21 and still has some upside. But it is not clear how good he projects and that should be recognized for what it is, no more and no less. He is exceptional as to his skating, and that is the only reason I would overpay for him, b'c Kreider is elite fast and Kravtsov is supposedly also.

But is he better than say, Pasta from Bs? Close to ballpark, but I say no, not across the board.

That said, across the board, it remains to be seen how good Andersson will be. The gap between him and Larkin may be shorter than you think. Again, I propose this since Larkin's speed may = synergy w/our top Ws, and because we have Chytil to fall back on in pivot if nec.

I get what you are saying, but a really elite guy is likely to require a 1-3 slotting. You can't manufacture that due to draft. Best you can do is add good pieces and be ready when opportunity knocks.

 

[Nickmo82]

 

[bernmeister]

This isn’t overpayment at all. You’re getting the best player in the deal pretty easily and a likely top 3 pick with our centers left in this condition. This would be talked about for ages as how the Rangers turned their rebuild around in only a year and the Wings destroyed theirs.

You are getting an immediate top 6 C with 1C potential. You are also getting other pieces.
And that COULD be a top 3 pick, but it could just as easily be closer to 10OA. If you could prove you had a lock to be 1-2OA in this draft, that would be a factor, but that is not so. Also, Andy is ready now, any pick will not be ready immediately.

 

[bernmeister]

Shut it down

Free speech 4ever.

 

[njx9]

Det would be better than last year. Obviously in a lottery slotting can go up or down, but %wise it would be close to second half top ten [5-10]. Thus Andersson would be fair compensation just for he 1st. Plus he is ready at full elc now, no waiting 2 years for him to be ready.

That's absolutely ridiculous. Andersson, a weak pick in a mediocre draft, is not worth a top ten pick in a draft that appears to be stacked with Cs. Buchnevich might be good, but the last thing the team needs is yet another wing. Skjei isn't good enough to make up for opening the massive, gaping hole the team would have at C.

None of which says anything about how utterly moronic Holland would have to be to outright cripple the future of the team for, in your own reasoning, money reasons. The Wings aren't Ottawa.

This is an asinine offer, that frankly, only got worse the more you wrote about it. Clearly you want Larkin and a free top ten pick, but a mystery box, a winger and a top 4D (not even a top pairing guy) doesn't come close to touching BOTH a top ten pick in a C-rich draft, and the only potential 1C the team has brought in in literal decades.

This is one of the worst proposals I've read on these boards in a long time, and that's saying something.

You are getting an immediate top 6 C with 1C potential. You are also getting other pieces.

What? Andersson is an immediate top 6 C? On what bloody planet?

 

[bernmeister]

I enjoy Bern proposals, they are outside the box, he explains his reasoning, and they are a nice change from every other proposal on here. That said, Detroit doesn't do this.

Thanks for the kind commentary, even if we did not concur on the deal.

 

[Shaman464]

You are getting an immediate top 6 C with 1C potential. You are also getting other pieces.
And that COULD be a top 3 pick, but it could just as easily be closer to 10OA. If you could prove you had a lock to be 1-2OA in this draft, that would be a factor, but that is not so. Also, Andy is ready now, any pick will not be ready immediately.

Just... no... Like it was bad before you decided to come back into this dumpster fire you started, but this is just insulting because its literal non-sense. Why would Detroit trade a guy who is likely a 1B center on a contending team for a guy who is firmly a 2nd line center and throw a lottery pick with it to boot? And why would the Rangers do it if he has 1C potential anyway? For them this would be rearranging deck chairs if that were the case.

 

[bernmeister]

If the Rangers wanted to make a quantity v quality deal for Buffalo's 1st I think there's opportunity. Rangers might need to take back a couple minor league contracts to make it work out.

That is something I have considered, and for another thread in the near future.

 

[bernmeister]

Larkin is the most unavailable non-upper echelon player in the league. Home grown,face of franchise young center. He's immensely popular on and off the ice. He's not available.

That is why I politely asked for input on that at sq1.
This could be enough to override any profit a deal such as suggested offers.
But how many Wings fans want Larkin and how many want progress?

 

[bernmeister]

Just... no... Like it was bad before you decided to come back into this dumpster fire you started, but this is just insulting because its literal non-sense. Why would Detroit trade a guy who is likely a 1B center on a contending team for a guy who is firmly a 2nd line center and throw a lottery pick with it to boot? And why would the Rangers do it if he has 1C potential anyway? For them this would be rearranging deck chairs if that were the case.

As I said, I am willing to give up more overall talent, within reason, and help DET w/cap mgmt by providing elc guys, b'c I am intrigued by possibility Larkin, Kreider, and Kravtsov have exceptional chemistry.
That is why Rangers do it. To improve chemistry.
Wings do it cause they need more horses.

 

[Connor McConnor]

Other than a good WJC, Lias Andersson has not proven to be anything but a potential top 6 player. His track record to this point is not spectacular, he doesn't possess elite skills. When you are 19 and people are saying his leadership/intangibles are one of his greatest traits that's not a good thing. Trade seems pointless anyways for both teams.

 

[bernmeister]

As to the comment someone made about a deal using Chytil instead of Andersson, I would not go there. At present Chytil is not established dynamic player but he is a sniper, can slide to W, Rangers need that. As was said, Detroit has Ws, I added elc Buch to that mix so they would have options.

 

[bernmeister]

Other than a good WJC, Lias Andersson has not proven to be anything but a potential top 6 player. His track record to this point is not spectacular, he doesn't possess elite skills. When you are 19 and people are saying his leadership/intangibles are one of his greatest traits that's not a good thing. Trade seems pointless anyways for both teams.

Fair enough, but remember this is a kid who cut his teeth playing in Swedish league with men. Sure, like every other rookie he could use some experience, but he is ready to go now. And obviously total success is a matter of chemistry, linemates, etc as well as what he bring to the table.
But admit it, he looks like he'd be good w/Zadina and Buch.

 

[KJoe88]

Availability? Zero.

Larkin will be elite. And you want a first? Good one.