Toggle sidebar

Confirmed Trade: [LAK/TOR] Jake Muzzin for 2019 1st round pick, Sean Durzi, and Carl Grundstrom - Part II

Status
Not open for further replies.

Legion34

Registered User
Jan 24, 2006
18,182
8,271
beauchamp said:
And where did I err in my hypothesis ?

Fact: they now have $60.3M invested in 13 players (who do not include Matthews/Marner/Kapanen).

Assumption: Matthews/Marner/Kapanen will get $25M.

Total (if the assumption is correct): $85.3M with 16 players signed... QED
Click to expand...

Try it on cap friendly. It’s been posted here a bunch.
 

Legion34

Registered User
Jan 24, 2006
18,182
8,271
beauchamp said:
Are you aware that these numbers are the ones found on CapFriendly, except for the $25M assumptions for the 3 players mentioned ?

And you still haven't pointed out where I was wrong...
Click to expand...

The overall assertion is wrong.
I can make a whole bunch or faulty premises. And not technically be wrong.

Ie: all the leafs have to do is force marleau to retire and trade his hit, dump brown and Zaitsev for a first and now we can sign Karlson for 12 million a year!
The math adds up but it’s not going to work.

Have you went on cap friendly and tried it?
They can fit all of their players by LTIR Horton, dumping brown and resigning oz for a million or less.

What do you think kappy gets? More Than more proven RFAS like Reinhardt got this year?

You think Marner becomes the highest paid winger in the league?

Have you tried it? You can do it
 
Frank Drebin

Frank Drebin

He's just a child
Sponsor
Mar 9, 2004
33,767
20,023
Edmonton
What exactly does a #2 mean? The second best player on a top pairing?

I understand first pairing/second pairing, but could Muzzin anchor a competent nhl top pairing with a d partner who is inferior to him?

The whole #2/#3/#4 thing confuses me. I call Petry a #3 because he's no good against top competition (first pairing) but he can carry a second pair.
 
  • Like
Reactions: KasperTheGrittyGhost and mouser

Osprey

Registered User
Feb 18, 2005
27,294
9,758
Chazz Reinhold said:
How about his ability to limit zone entries? Does that count?

Click to expand...


The same data from the same source show that his former teammate Derek Forbort is even slightly better at limiting zone entries. You probably won't hear a whole lot of praise coming from Kings fans about Forbort's defensive game. Also, notice that it tracks only 61 games out of a total of 206 that Muzzin has played in the last three seasons. I think that it's better to watch the games to see how well the players perform in certain situations than to rely very heavily on those kinds of unverifiable "hero" graphs.

BTW, to be clear, I'm not saying that he's bad at limiting zone entries, even to the naked eye. It's probably safe to say that he's good at it, but all of that standing up at the blue line also allows attackers to walk around him when he fails and get very dangerous scoring chances, which such data doesn't show you.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: Raccoon Jesus
zeke

zeke

The Dube Abides
Mar 14, 2005
66,937
36,957
Osprey said:
The same data from the same source show that his former teammate Derek Forbort is even slightly better at limiting zone entries. You probably won't hear a whole lot of praise coming from Kings fans about Forbort's defensive game. Also, notice that it tracks only 61 games out of a total of 206 that Muzzin has played in the last three seasons. I think that it's better to watch the games to see how well the players perform in certain situations than to rely very heavily on those kinds of unverifiable "hero" graphs.
Click to expand...

weren't you the guy that posted a whole bunch of advanced stats and then ignored my reply where I showed you that muzzin's defensive numbers were clearly better than his defense partners and anyone other than the top pair, all while having the best offensive impact numbers by a long shot?
 
  • Like
Reactions: Raccoon Jesus
zeke

zeke

The Dube Abides
Mar 14, 2005
66,937
36,957
Frank Drebin said:
What exactly does a #2 mean? The second best player on a top pairing?

I understand first pairing/second pairing, but could Muzzin anchor a competent nhl top pairing with a d partner who is inferior to him?

The whole #2/#3/#4 thing confuses me. I call Petry a #3 because he's no good against top competition (first pairing) but he can carry a second pair.
Click to expand...

I would guess that someone who could anchor a top pairing while playing with a weaker partner would be called a #1 dman, not a #2 dman.
 
  • Like
Reactions: ImpartialNHLfan and Raccoon Jesus

Osprey

Registered User
Feb 18, 2005
27,294
9,758
zeke said:
weren't you the guy that posted a whole bunch of advanced stats and then ignored my reply where I showed you that muzzin's defensive numbers were clearly better than his defense partners and anyone other than the top pair, all while having the best offensive impact numbers by a long shot?
Click to expand...

I wrote a post about my observations watching him (no stats included) and you replied by saying "I agree mostly" and posting a bunch of advanced stats, yourself. You were agreeable and made a good argument that I didn't have a big disagreement with, so I let you have your word and didn't contest the matter. I'm sorry if you felt like you were ignored, but I didn't mean that. Besides, I'm trying not to argue with Leafs fans because too much of that doesn't seem very respectful, considering that you're excited for your acquisition.
 
Last edited:
Chazz Reinhold

Chazz Reinhold

Registered User
Sep 6, 2005
9,025
2,688
The Stanley Cup
Osprey said:
The same data from the same source show that his former teammate Derek Forbort is even slightly better at limiting zone entries. You probably won't hear a whole lot of praise coming from Kings fans about Forbort's defensive game. Also, notice that it tracks only 61 games out of a total of 206 that Muzzin has played in the last three seasons. I think that it's better to watch the games to see how well the players perform in certain situations than to rely very heavily on those kinds of unverifiable "hero" graphs.

BTW, to be clear, I'm not saying that he's bad at limiting zone entries, even to the naked eye. It's probably safe to say that he's good at it, but all of that standing up at the blue line also allows attackers to walk around him when he fails and get very dangerous scoring chances, which such data doesn't show you.
Click to expand...

Those numbers are from the source, Corey Snajdzer, watching the games. He watches hundreds of hours of games across the league and hand tracks all those stats. He then creates percentile graphs like that. Those aren't pull from some box score.

My own "eye test" tells me that Muzzin can sometimes be risky and give up quality chances against, but that's the exception, not the norm.

And data most certainly can show how many dangerous scoring chances players give up, and from where, so I'm not sure where you're going with that.
 

Invictus12

Registered User
Aug 1, 2010
3,722
208
New York
beauchamp said:
Things will be tight next year, but they will not be over the cap if they use Horton's LTIR.

Let's assume the cap goes up by $4.5M (optimistc, I know) to $84M.

They now have 13 players signed for almost $60.3M.

Let's assume $25M to Matthews/Marner/Kapanen.

That's 16 players signed for $85.3M.

They need 5-6-7 more players.

Using Horton's LTIR, they'll have $4M available for these 5-6-7 players.

Their best semi-realistic scenario would be to get rid of Zaitsev, but it takes two to tango and they'll probably need to attach a significant sweetener to make that deal.
Click to expand...
Well, like you said, it's optimistic. It would seem like a pretty big to risk take, possibly not being able to sign Kapanen, without having some kind of assurance coming from somewhere. The problem here, is that most of their pieces that would solve the problem are young, great and expensive. Outside of that, their only player to trade would be Zaitsev for whom, you'd need interest and that would be a lot of stock to put on one horse. Only other possibility is trade Marleau, which is a lot of stock to put into a 39 y/o as a trading piece or simply, he calls it quits...
 

Invictus12

Registered User
Aug 1, 2010
3,722
208
New York
I am Canadian said:
Might very well be a handshake agreement that the deal was for 2 years. Example: Marleau gets paid like 5M on July 1st 2019, he can then be traded to a team trying to reach the floor (Ottawa?) where his caphit is still 6.25 but he's owed only 1M and he can then retire.
Click to expand...
Yep, this scenario also makes a lot of sense. I just don't see Toronto putting so much stock into being able to trade Zaitsev so Marleau he either retires or waives his NTC. Those are about the only reasons I can see on why Toronto would limit themselves so much on cap space right now.
 

Michel Beauchamp

Canadiens' fan since 1958
Mar 17, 2008
23,024
3,223
Laval, Qc
Invictus12 said:
Yep, this scenario also makes a lot of sense. I just don't see Toronto putting so much stock into being able to trade Zaitsev so Marleau he either retires or waives his NTC. Those are about the only reasons I can see on why Toronto would limit themselves so much on cap space right now.
Click to expand...
If he retires, the cap hit remains IIRC as he has a 35+ contract.
 
Last edited:

Invictus12

Registered User
Aug 1, 2010
3,722
208
New York
beauchamp said:
If he retires, the cap hit remains IIRC as he has a 35+ contract.
Click to expand...
I'm pretty sure that I stand corrected here. Another poster mentioned that he might either retire or willing to move his NMC but ultimately, my guess is that the plan revolves around Marleau becoming the spot that is cleared.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Ad

Latest posts

Upcoming events

Ad

Ad

Top Bottom