Proposal: Laine?

[Zetterberg4Captain]

Laine is the flashy new toy syndrome

 

[Steve Yzerlland]

Please stop defending AA, he was and is a trainwreck in his own end, and is a 3rd line level offensive producer at his best.

That went over your head lol.....

 

[Steve Yzerlland]

There's nothing wrong with debating the degree (exactly how many goals for versus goals against a given player is responsible for). But do you at least acknowledge the concept that, if Laine does an amazing job scoring goals, but a lousy job at nearly everything else, that that's a factor in estimating his overall value versus the assets needed to acquire him and the contract likely required to retain him?

Are all 22 year old hockey players (just turned btw) finished products? Was Ovechkin the same player defensively @22 that he is now? What about Yzerman etc?

 

[jkutswings]

Laine is only 22. Zadina is 20. Laine isn't out of line with the group of guys a lot of folks have been talking about as the core moving forward. I think it all comes down to the cost of the deal, as the contract cost doesn't concern me a whole lot. Lets say we pay him $9m per and he earns it. well, we just set the bar for what Zadina, Raymond, etc. have to do to be paid at that level. And if they reach it, then Laine becomes tradeable.

But it comes down to the trade cost. We have a jets fan saying they'd want to start at Seider/Larkin, which is clearly a no go for us. Personally, I think someone like Raymond or Zadina would have little interest because they aren't ready to be plugged into the lineup and contribute. The Jets have to believe they are in their window right now. So, I go back to my offer of Mantha+, which I think is a very doable trade from the Wings angle. Swapping one wing for another, probably end up paying a bit more on the deal but getting a guy who has already demonstrated a higher upside and better fits the age of the team going forward.

All very logical. But I think we would be setting ourselves up for disappointment. Between the higher contract and the assets to land him, I think expectations (fair or unfair) would effectively be for Laine to be worth "two Manthas", and I don't see him having quite that level of overall contribution.

Twice the scoring? Maybe, but that's a stretch. But to have twice the scoring, while still being on par (or better) in other areas of the game seems like a very tough target for an expensive acquisition joining a bad roster.

 

[jkutswings]

Are all 22 year old hockey players (just turned btw) finished products? Was Ovechkin the same player defensively @22 that he is now? What about Yzerman etc?

No. But Ovechkin and Yzerman were significantly better players to begin with, and thus far Laine has more red flags than either of the guys you're referencing did at 22.

Now CAN he still change? Of course. And maybe he will. But I'm not saying there's zero chance he improves his game to any degree whatsoever. I'm saying that, to go get him, and then pay him, you'd have to EXPECT that he will make SIGNIFICANT improvements to many areas of his game, and I don't think for this player that's a reasonable expectation.


EDIT: For statistical comparison, here are their 21 years old and under seasons:

Laine has 247 points in 305 games (0.81 PPG)
Ovechkin had 198 points in 163 games (1.21 PPG)
Yzerman had 308 points in 291 games (1.06 PPG)

 

[jaster]

I'm just glad this is an exercise in futility and that there is no way Yzerman will spend the time, effort, or resources to pursue a Patrik Laine trade

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

That went over your head lol.....

What, a slam at me because I "hated" AA? I would have loved AA if he played more than half the game of hockey. The games he would return from getting benched (for his lackluster play) he was a genuine terror on the ice and was by far the best player on either team. Then he'd settle back into doing okay to doing bad. Then he'd be benched and prodded and so on and so forth. I was pissed with AA because he's a waste of f***ing talent, not because he's a bad hockey player. He probably had the most skill on the roster prior to being traded. But skill doesn't mean a damn thing if you lollygag.

 

[Steve Yzerlland]

I'm just glad this is an exercise in futility and that there is no way Yzerman will spend the time, effort, or resources to pursue a Patrik Laine trade

No way ever. In history. Confirmed. I don't even think he would take him for Abdelkader.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

Also, I don't have a problem with liking and wanting to trade for Patrik Laine. He's a fabulous player. But Winnipeg isn't letting him go for less than Larkin or Seider+. And for our roster, that's way past a bridge too far. Mantha+ for him doesn't make sense unless that plus is almost on the level of Mantha too. For all the reasons you state, Winger, Winnipeg wouldn't want to deal Laine. If they are in their window right now, Laine is the better win-now piece than Mantha. Laine is better than Mantha. And the Wings don't have a second "win-now" piece that makes any sense for Winnipeg while also still making sense for Detroit to surrender it.

Because Mantha + 1st? That does nothing for win now. Mantha + Larkin is way too much. Mantha + Zadina, way too much. Mantha + Bertuzzi, maybe, but do you want to trade two really good wingers who provide different things for one great one who is by far a better scorer than either, but a worse defender than both?

9M on a contract for a star wing? I've got no problem paying that. But I don't want to pay that and also give up two top 6 wingers or even more. Really pessimistic outlook on it? Say we trade for Laine and he's what TG2V thinks he is. By the time we are competing for anything... he's 26-27 and all of a sudden everyone is head over heels for the next 20 year old... like "let's trade everything we've got to try to get Aatu Raty!"

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

No way ever. In history. Confirmed. I don't even think he would take him for Abdelkader.

You're not wrong for liking Laine. I get it. He's a great player. But for as much as everyone was poopooing bringing in Torey Krug at 6.5-7M because he wasn't the piece we need for the rebuild... I don't want Patrik Laine at the price of two or three of our highest value assets AND a near 10M contract. Like if he was an FA? Go f***ing nuts. If Winnipeg absolutely wanted him gone for some reason and it was just Winnipeg being dumb as hell and we could get him for assets that won't harm our rebuild, cool. But neither of those things are remotely true

 

[Hen Kolland]

I'm just glad this is an exercise in futility and that there is no way Yzerman will spend the time, effort, or resources to pursue a Patrik Laine trade

This is a different angle to consider. We can talk about whether or not it makes sense, but there's a very, very small chance that Yzerman takes this gamble with the uncertainty around Laine's behavior on the ice, in the locker room, in the media. He has talked a ton about the culture, players in Tampa talked about how he set the culture.

Let's not forget that Yzerman is the guy who traded away Drouin, his own draft pick, after he became a headache and didn't fit the culture Yzerman was building. Now try to imagine that GM spending money and assets to bring a player with rumors that he may be a potential headache, despite being immensely talented, into the locker room in Detroit. That seems farfetched.

 

[Steve Yzerlland]

You're not wrong for liking Laine. I get it. He's a great player. But for as much as everyone was poopooing bringing in Torey Krug at 6.5-7M because he wasn't the piece we need for the rebuild... I don't want Patrik Laine at the price of two or three of our highest value assets AND a near 10M contract. Like if he was an FA? Go f***ing nuts. If Winnipeg absolutely wanted him gone for some reason and it was just Winnipeg being dumb as hell and we could get him for assets that won't harm our rebuild, cool. But neither of those things are remotely true

Would you do Mantha Cholo and a 2nd? That's what I am suggesting. Not Raymond Seider and ten years worth of 1st's like everyone is exaggerating me to be willing to part with...

 

[jaster]

No way ever. In history. Confirmed. I don't even think he would take him for Abdelkader.

That went over your head lol.....

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

Would you do Mantha Cholo and a 2nd? That's what I am suggesting. Not Raymond Seider and ten years worth of 1st's like everyone is exaggerating me to be willing to part with...

Would I? Yes.
Would Winnipeg? According to their fans? Hell no. They view it as downgrading from Laine to Mantha. I agree.

Think of it this way do you, if you have Laine, think the difference is Cholo and a 2nd? I certainly don't. To me as Winnipeg, Cholo and a 2nd don't have much value at all if I'm moving Laine. I think that offer gets you laughed off the phone. Or if not, is easily beaten by damn near any other offer. YOLO ask about it if you must, but that's simply not a realistic price.

 

[VictoriaJetsFan]

Would you take Raymond, Joe Veleno, and a second round pick next year? Because if you can renegotiate Laine's contract first, at say 6 years at $8 million per year, then sign-and-trade him, I'd go for that.

Replace Raymond with Seider then yes.

 

[Winger98]

All very logical. But I think we would be setting ourselves up for disappointment. Between the higher contract and the assets to land him, I think expectations (fair or unfair) would effectively be for Laine to be worth "two Manthas", and I don't see him having quite that level of overall contribution.

Twice the scoring? Maybe, but that's a stretch. But to have twice the scoring, while still being on par (or better) in other areas of the game seems like a very tough target for an expensive acquisition joining a bad roster.

We wouldn't be getting him for now, though. well, yeah, he'd play now, but he's at the right age to come up with Zadina, Raymond, 2021 pick, Seider, etc. We'd have him to be our Weapon X in a playoff series to go out on the power play and kill it.

If people have just stupid expectations of Laine, well, that's on them. My expectation would be 30-40 goals every year (providing he's healthy) and to play well enough to not kill us when he's not scoring - something I do think he took a big step in the right direction in last season.

For the record, I'm also not a big Laine fan. Hell, I dealt him from my fantasy team here because I didn't like how he played. But I don't think the money should scare us off to re-sign the guy is he got dealt here. I think he'd earn the cash itself.

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

Replace Raymond with Seider then yes.

Neither Raymond or Seider are going anywhere.

 

[VictoriaJetsFan]

Neither Raymond or Seider are going anywhere.

Have a nice day then.

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

Have a nice day then.

Will do, You do the same.

 

[Steve Yzerlland]

Would I? Yes.
Would Winnipeg? According to their fans? Hell no. They view it as downgrading from Laine to Mantha. I agree.

Think of it this way do you, if you have Laine, think the difference is Cholo and a 2nd? I certainly don't. To me as Winnipeg, Cholo and a 2nd don't have much value at all if I'm moving Laine. I think that offer gets you laughed off the phone. Or if not, is easily beaten by damn near any other offer. YOLO ask about it if you must, but that's simply not a realistic price.

You will never know the temperature until you put your foot in the pool.

 

[jkutswings]

If people have just stupid expectations of Laine, well, that's on them. My expectation would be 30-40 goals every year (providing he's healthy) and to play well enough to not kill us when he's not scoring - something I do think he took a big step in the right direction in last season.

Let's walk through this then.

Say it takes Mantha + a 1st rounder to bring Laine here. (Maybe instead of the 1st it's a 2nd and a decent young player, but the point is it's Mantha plus significant assets.) So you start with Mantha, and you obviously expect Laine to be better than Mantha, or you wouldn't be dealing Anthony. But it's not just a 1 for 1 swap - you also have those other assets going to Winnipeg. So just in terms of asset management, you have to be expecting Laine to be a net positive to your franchise, versus the collective value you set to Mantha and whatever the "plus" is in the deal.

Now let's make this hypothetical trade and estimate what each team sees in their returns.

Say Laine scores 30-35 goals for Detroit. And he's not a trainwreck defensively, but he's below average. And he's a great weapon on the power play, but doesn't go near the penalty kill, or block shots, or win faceoffs, or do any of those other intangibles.

Now say Mantha scores 25-30 for Winnipeg. I don't think that's a crazy number, given the roster around him. I'd say that Mantha on the Jets is likely a bit better defensively than Laine is on the Wings. And is likely making a noticeably smaller salary.

I haven't even added in the value of whatever else goes to Winnipeg in the deal, and already it's a lot closer to even value per dollar than I'd like as a Wings fan. You throw anything major in there as the kicker (a 1st rounder, or a Zadina) and the Jets are making out like bandits.

Now sure, everybody will have different individual evaluations of each of these players. But I think to bring Laine here and "win the trade" (including the assets other than Mantha sent the other way), he needs to be a 40-45 goal scorer, and I don't see him touching that for at least another few years with the roster we have. Maybe he makes it up on the back half of his contract, but I'm not making this move and then signing a 6-7 year deal based on what I hope for in years 4 through 6 (or 7).

 

[r0bert8841]

Would I? Yes.
Would Winnipeg? According to their fans? Hell no. They view it as downgrading from Laine to Mantha. I agree.

Think of it this way do you, if you have Laine, think the difference is Cholo and a 2nd? I certainly don't. To me as Winnipeg, Cholo and a 2nd don't have much value at all if I'm moving Laine. I think that offer gets you laughed off the phone. Or if not, is easily beaten by damn near any other offer. YOLO ask about it if you must, but that's simply not a realistic price.

Are other teams realistically going to be able to offer more than that? Maybe we could upgrade on Cholowski to a Veleno, but I can’t imagine much better offers

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

Have a nice day then.

You too man and good luck

 

[HisNoodliness]

Neither Raymond or Seider are going anywhere.

Yeah if there's a deal around Mantha + Veleno + Tuomisto for Laine then I could do something like that. We can't move our tier 1 prospects (Seider, Raymond, Zadina) or '21 and '22 1sts for pretty much anyone. For the right piece, Larkin should be on the table, but Laine isn't that piece IMO.

Seems like that kind of deal isn't going to satisfy Jets fans though so unless Yzerman or the the Jets GM feels differently than their respective fan bases, I don't think it's happening.

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

Yeah if there's a deal around Mantha + Veleno + Tuomisto for Laine then I could do something like that. We can't move our tier 1 prospects (Seider, Raymond, Zadina) or '21 and '22 1sts for pretty much anyone. For the right piece, Larkin should be on the table, but Laine isn't that piece IMO.

Seems like that kind of deal isn't going to satisfy Jets fans though so unless Yzerman or the the Jets GM feels differently than their respective fan bases, I don't think it's happening.

"Mantha + Veleno + Tuomisto for Laine" value may/may not be there for either side though, not just the Jets. Veleno & Mantha are the type of players you can win with, add to your core. Laine is virtually a 1-dimensional, way overpriced, soon to be mercinary.