News Article: Karlsson trade is the gift that keeps on giving for rebuilding Senators

[FolignoQuantumLeap]

It is not in bad faith. Go read the thread of the Duchene trade. I didn't find your prediction that is was going to be a lottery pick. And, for the record, I don't think anyone here would disagree with the predictions that Ottawa was always going to be in tough to get into the playoffs. Being a lottery team? No way

Well its either bad faith or you lack the ability to read.

 

[coladin]

Well its either bad faith or you lack the ability to read.

View attachment 274231

And many would have said you were overreacting at that particular moment in time. Just because you pushed the panic button early, doesn't mean in the context of your post, that you were right

 

[GrantLemons]

It isn't a deflection, but it completely blows apart the "overachieving in the playoffs " argument. No one predicted that the Sens would be a last place team. No one felt the No. 1 would have been any worse than a mid round pick. Go read. They were still in the playoff hunt in November

I'm sorry but if Pierre made the Duchene trade because "we were still in the playoff hunt" in early November, then he's a bigger f***ing idiot than we all thought.

 

[GrantLemons]

No it wasn't. Literally nobody predicted it. This is the kind of revisionism I'm talking about.

And he did make moves. A huge one actually. We traded a crappy center (who became a healthy scratch in Nashville) for a center that was 9th in scoring league-wide among centers.

Turris was not by any stretch of the imagination considered crappy at the time we traded him.

Let's talk about revisionism today, shall we class!

 

[Micklebot]

Just a gentle reminder to tie any posts back to the OP topic, Karlsson return. It's starting to get away from that, and if it does not get back on track the thread will have to be locked up (there are other threads you can discuss the Turris trade in or Dorion's overall performance).

This went a little off track and that's to be expected to a degree, but lets try and stay between the rails going forward.

 

[SpezDispenser]

How the hell did this trade work out lol. At the time I was crapping tacks I was so mad at the return we got, but as time goes by...this is a good one.

 

[Micklebot]

How the hell did this trade work out lol. At the time I was crapping tacks I was so mad at the return we got, but as time goes by...this is a good one.

Tierney I think has pretty much been in line with what should have been expected (ignoring Dorion's "more assists than Marks Stone nonsense"

DeMelo has exceeded reasonable expectations for a guy that literally wasn't qualified a couple months before the trade.

Norris has so far exceed what I expected in his first year in Belleville, it's still really early, but so far he seems to have improved his stock since the trade

SJ fell off a cliff. A pick that was expected to be a 25 to 30 range has turned into looking like a potential 5-15 range.

A lot could still change. Karlsson could find his form. SJ could make the playoffs, Norris could bust. The trade was mostly contingent on futures panning out, and so far they look to have improved while Karlsson has stumbled

I still think it was handled poorly. We should have done something similar to what OEL and Arz did; agree to terms now, or we trade you at the draft or traded him at the deadline the year before. Instead, we got disingenuous "we will make an offer on 1 Jul / I can't talk to him till 1 Jul" crap and back our way into a bad situation.

Regardless of how things pan out, how it was handled is going to leave a sour taste in a lot of peoples mouths.

 

[AchtzehnBaby]

This thread is seconds away from being locked, only because of the few posters who like to end their posts with thinly veiled trolls or flames. It is a great discussion, don’t ruin it.

 

[jhutter]

The Duchene trade was a huge swing and a miss, but at least it was a swing. I don't think anyone anticipated how bad the Senators would be that year, the year after, and this year. The idea that the first rounder would end up being a lottery pick wasn't a particular worry at the time.

Where I feel that there is legitimate criticism is the fact that Duchene wasn't retained, and I'd argue that there was simply no legitimate interest in doing so. Signing Turris to a 6 x $36M wasn't something that the Senators were interested in (which, looking back on, was astute).

Simply put, the Senators were able to make a short term upgrade to what they thought was a competitive team for a total commitment of $12M, rather than a long term $36M commitment.

 

[coladin]

Tierney I think has pretty much been in line with what should have been expected (ignoring Dorion's "more assists than Marks Stone nonsense"

DeMelo has exceeded reasonable expectations for a guy that literally wasn't qualified a couple months before the trade.

Norris has so far exceed what I expected in his first year in Belleville, it's still really early, but so far he seems to have improved his stock since the trade

SJ fell off a cliff. A pick that was expected to be a 25 to 30 range has turned into looking like a potential 5-15 range.

A lot could still change. Karlsson could find his form. SJ could make the playoffs, Norris could bust. The trade was mostly contingent on futures panning out, and so far they look to have improved while Karlsson has stumbled

I still think it was handled poorly. We should have done something similar to what OEL and Arz did; agree to terms now, or we trade you at the draft or traded him at the deadline the year before. Instead, we got disingenuous "we will make an offer on 1 Jul / I can't talk to him till 1 Jul" crap and back our way into a bad situation.

Regardless of how things pan out, how it was handled is going to leave a sour taste in a lot of peoples mouths.

I'll agree with this. It was handled poorly. I mean, there probabaly wasn't any other way that it could not have been handled poorly. Karlsson was our homegrown superstar, and nothing was going to be good enough in the trade. looking forward, it may very well look this an amazing trade, but we are nowhere near that point. We have to see what the Sens do this summer to properly evaluate the trade. But that pick is looking good right now. I am not getting my hopes up though!

 

[swiftwin]

Tierney I think has pretty much been in line with what should have been expected (ignoring Dorion's "more assists than Marks Stone nonsense"

DeMelo has exceeded reasonable expectations for a guy that literally wasn't qualified a couple months before the trade.

Norris has so far exceed what I expected in his first year in Belleville, it's still really early, but so far he seems to have improved his stock since the trade

SJ fell off a cliff. A pick that was expected to be a 25 to 30 range has turned into looking like a potential 5-15 range.

A lot could still change. Karlsson could find his form. SJ could make the playoffs, Norris could bust. The trade was mostly contingent on futures panning out, and so far they look to have improved while Karlsson has stumbled

I still think it was handled poorly. We should have done something similar to what OEL and Arz did; agree to terms now, or we trade you at the draft or traded him at the deadline the year before. Instead, we got disingenuous "we will make an offer on 1 Jul / I can't talk to him till 1 Jul" crap and back our way into a bad situation.

Regardless of how things pan out, how it was handled is going to leave a sour taste in a lot of peoples mouths.

No doubt it was a PR disaster and handled poorly.

But on paper, there's also no doubt that the trade is looking better by the day.

 

[coladin]

The Duchene trade was a huge swing and a miss, but at least it was a swing. I don't think anyone anticipated how bad the Senators would be that year, the year after, and this year. The idea that the first rounder would end up being a lottery pick wasn't a particular worry at the time.

Where I feel that there is legitimate criticism is the fact that Duchene wasn't retained, and I'd argue that there was simply no legitimate interest in doing so. Signing Turris to a 6 x $36M wasn't something that the Senators were interested in (which, looking back on, was astute).

Simply put, the Senators were able to make a short term upgrade to what they thought was a competitive team for a total commitment of $12M, rather than a long term $36M commitment.

The astuteness of the organization is difficult for fans to handle. They screw up , sure, especially the Hoffman trade, which might be the worst. But other scenarios, like trading Turris and maybe Karlsson, may prove that they have bigger balls than many give them credit for. But I'm sure many will just point to the main reason being a fire sale to dump salary. There may be a part of that of course, but not entirely the reason

 

[Micklebot]

I'll agree with this. It was handled poorly. I mean, there probabaly wasn't any other way that it could not have been handled poorly. Karlsson was our homegrown superstar, and nothing was going to be good enough in the trade. looking forward, it may very well look this an amazing trade, but we are nowhere near that point. We have to see what the Sens do this summer to properly evaluate the trade. But that pick is looking good right now. I am not getting my hopes up though!

Trading a star player is never popular, but imo Dorion managed to make it even more unpopular. I think had he been traded to VGK at the deadline the year prior for a similar quality trade (not taking into account the SJ pick skyrocketing in value after the fact) people wouldn't be as sour. That's just my opinion, but I can't imagine it not being the case given how everything went down between Feb and Sep.

 

[SpezDispenser]

Tierney I think has pretty much been in line with what should have been expected (ignoring Dorion's "more assists than Marks Stone nonsense"

DeMelo has exceeded reasonable expectations for a guy that literally wasn't qualified a couple months before the trade.

Norris has so far exceed what I expected in his first year in Belleville, it's still really early, but so far he seems to have improved his stock since the trade

SJ fell off a cliff. A pick that was expected to be a 25 to 30 range has turned into looking like a potential 5-15 range.

A lot could still change. Karlsson could find his form. SJ could make the playoffs, Norris could bust. The trade was mostly contingent on futures panning out, and so far they look to have improved while Karlsson has stumbled

I still think it was handled poorly. We should have done something similar to what OEL and Arz did; agree to terms now, or we trade you at the draft or traded him at the deadline the year before. Instead, we got disingenuous "we will make an offer on 1 Jul / I can't talk to him till 1 Jul" crap and back our way into a bad situation.

Regardless of how things pan out, how it was handled is going to leave a sour taste in a lot of peoples mouths.

I still agree, that's what I said earlier about this being almost pure luck from Dorion (IMO).

The worst handling I can think of is still Mark Stone. What kind of crap was that?

 

[swiftwin]

The Duchene trade was a huge swing and a miss, but at least it was a swing. I don't think anyone anticipated how bad the Senators would be that year, the year after, and this year. The idea that the first rounder would end up being a lottery pick wasn't a particular worry at the time.

Where I feel that there is legitimate criticism is the fact that Duchene wasn't retained, and I'd argue that there was simply no legitimate interest in doing so. Signing Turris to a 6 x $36M wasn't something that the Senators were interested in (which, looking back on, was astute).

Simply put, the Senators were able to make a short term upgrade to what they thought was a competitive team for a total commitment of $12M, rather than a long term $36M commitment.

If I could like this a million times, I would.

Look around the league. Almost every 7-8 year deal given to 28+ year olds turns awful fast. We learned our lesson with Bobby Ryan. I don't know why people want us to repeat that mistake. A player with little term has a ton of value. The only way a budget team like ours can be competitive is to make trades for players who have little term left and are outperforming their contract.

 

[Micklebot]

The astuteness of the organization is difficult for fans to handle. They screw up , sure, especially the Hoffman trade, which might be the worst. But other scenarios, like trading Turris and maybe Karlsson, may prove that they have bigger balls than many give them credit for. But I'm sure many will just point to the main reason being a fire sale to dump salary. There may be a part of that of course, but not entirely the reason

I mean, the Turris trade long term isn't really a win. Deciding he was expendable was a win, how we went about it turned out to be a catastrophe.

Karlsson deal is different because the return might actually end up being far better than early predictions.

I mean, heck, if we trade of Tierney for a late 1st and DeMelo for a 2nd (I know I might be shooting high here), that would mean 3 first round equivalents (one potentially a lottery pick) and 2 2nd round equivalents plus Balcers which isn't that bad at all. Compare that to the Yashin trade and it's not out of line at all.

 

[swiftwin]

I mean, the Turris trade long term isn't really a win. Deciding he was expendable was a win, how we went about it turned out to be a catastrophe.

Karlsson deal is different because the return might actually end up being far better than early predictions.

I mean, heck, if we trade of Tierney for a late 1st and DeMelo for a 2nd (I know I might be shooting high here), that would mean 3 first round equivalents (one potentially a lottery pick) and 2 2nd round equivalents plus Balcers which isn't that bad at all. Compare that to the Yashin trade and it's not out of line at all.

The same could be said about the Duchene trade if that 1st round pick is a mid to late 1st. I think that's a win for us. Duchene was fantastic for us and exceeded expectations, and totally worth what we gave up had that 1st rounder been later.

I boggles my mind that some around here believe Dorion got lucky with the San Jose pick, but needs to be faulted for the pick we gave to Colorado. You can't have it both ways. It's one or the other.

 

[Alex1234]

No it wasn't. Literally nobody predicted it. This is the kind of revisionism I'm talking about.

And he did make moves. A huge one actually. We traded a crappy center (who became a healthy scratch in Nashville) for a center that was 9th in scoring league-wide among centers.

Please stop with the crappy center thing
At the moment of the trade Duchene was 4g-6a-10p in 13 games and Turris 3g-6a-9p in 11 games

 

[Micklebot]

The same could be said about the Duchene trade if that 1st round pick is a mid to late 1st. I think that's a win for us. Duchene was fantastic for us and exceeded expectations, and totally worth what we gave up had that 1st rounder been later.

I boggles my mind that some around here believe Dorion got lucky with the San Jose pick, but needs to be faulted for the pick we gave to Colorado. You can't have it both ways. It's one or the other.

We traded for Duchene to put us over the top and compete for the cup. That was the goal, that's why we made that move. We missed the playoffs the two years he was here by a wide margin and he refused to re-sign. Trading for Duchene in no way can ever be construed as a win based on how he played for us, it was an abject failure in the same way it would be a failure to trade the SJ first this year for Hall only to see him walk away at UFA regardless of where that 1st ended up.

 

[Que]

Was that the guy arguing that Kris Russel was the most valuable defender in the NHL?

His posts were fascinating. I don't even mean that condescendingly. I can't fathom him being correct, but they were interesting to read.

The one in the same. I think he might of had some health problems too so I hope he’s ok.

 

[swiftwin]

We traded for Duchene to put us over the top and compete for the cup. That was the goal, that's why we made that move. We missed the playoffs the two years he was here by a wide margin and he refused to re-sign. Trading for Duchene in no way can ever be construed as a win based on how he played for us, it was an abject failure in the same way it would be a failure to trade the SJ first this year for Hall only to see him walk away at UFA regardless of where that 1st ended up.

So Columbus trading for Duchene was an infinitely worse failure for them? Is every rental where a team doesn't win the cup an abject failure?

We got most of our money back on Duchene, we got a mid-1st and two prospects. We paid what was supposed to be a mid-1st, a prospect and a 3rd, along with a centerman who we weren't going to re-sign (thankfully).

Like I said, the only thing that made that trade bad was the unexpected lottery pick. If it's a mid 1st, we break even, and get a year+ of a high end #1 centerman, as opposed to losing Turris a year sooner to FA and having nobody to replace him.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

The Karlsson eventual trade , after being close at the deadline, the trade for Duchene and the decision to move towards a rebuild shortly afterwards are linked. It was a fiasco. The return value from the Karlsson trade is largely hinged on San Jose's performance this year. If they provide us with a lottery pick it is quite a bit better than a late first that we could have expected at the time. The decision to move on from him on the Sens part in the context of a rebuild shortly after spending valuable assets to acquire Duchene is nuts for a budget team that should be valuing those assets. Karlsson's value dropped as time went on imo and Dorion put himself in a box much like he did with Stone. Dorion bet against the odds on all their deals.

 

[TheDebater]

Not trying to go off topic as this pertains to the Karlsson trade because it helps to bring clarity to a trade when assessing its result by looking at past trades that are somewhat similar in status, here are some examples of “star” players being traded and what the team got in return. It has become obvious that the team that receives the star player generally “wins” the trade which makes what we received in the Karlsson deal seem pretty good, all things considered:

_________________________

Ilya Kovalchuk: Traded to New Jersey from Atlanta for a package that included defenseman Johnny Oduya, rookie forward Niclas Bergfors, junior prospect Patrice Cormier and New Jersey's first-round pick in the 2010 NHL Entry Draft.

Joe Thornton: San Jose sent forwards Marco Sturm and Wayne Primeau and defenseman Brad Stuart for Thornton. Boston received no picks.

Tyler Seguin: Boston and Dallas agreed to a seven-player trade Thursday, with the Bruins sending forward Tyler Seguin, forward Rich Peverley and defenseman Ryan Button to the Stars for forward Loui Eriksson and three prospects (Joseph Morrow, Reilly Smith and Matt Fraser).

Taylor Hall: for Adam Larsson

Jaromir Jagr: Penguins received Kris Beech, Ross Lupaschuk, Michal Sivek for Jagr and Kucera.

Olli Jokinen: to Arizona for Keith Ballard, Nick Boynton and a 2008 2nd round pick

Marian Gaborik: Rangers received Brassard, Dorsett, Moore, 2014 6th round pick from Columbus for Gaborik, Parlett and Delisle. Gaborik was traded again the following year to L.A for Matt Frattin a 2nd round pick and conditional 3rd.

O’Reilly: Buffalo received Sobotka, Berglund, Tage Thompson, 2019 1st round pick

Vanek: Moulson, 2014 1st round pick, 2015 2nd round pick.

Tanguay: Leopold, 2006 2nd round pick, 2007 conditional pick

Pronger: Lupul, Smid, 2007 1st round pick, 2008 2nd round pick, 2008 conditional 1st.
St. Louis: Callahan, 2015 1st round pick, 2014 conditional 2nd round pick.

Comrie: Woywitka, 2004 1st round pick, 2005 3rd round pick.
______________________

There are bunch to list, obviously the Karlsson trade at the time was one of the biggest in league history because of the type of player he was/is, but those types of trades are so very very infrequent that it is hard to really find an equivalent. I think when you look at some of the above trades, you really notice that most of the time a star player is traded, it is rarely a win for the team that trades them away.

 

[Micklebot]

So Columbus trading for Duchene was an infinitely worse failure for them? Is every rental where a team doesn't win the cup an abject failure?

We got most of our money back on Duchene, we got a mid-1st and two prospects. We paid what was supposed to be a mid-1st, a prospect and a 3rd, along with a centerman who we weren't going to re-sign (thankfully).

Like I said, the only thing that made that trade bad was the unexpected lottery pick. If it's a mid 1st, we break even, and get a year+ of a high end #1 centerman, as opposed to losing Turris a year sooner to FA and having nobody to replace him.

Columbus' goal was to make the playoffs and maybe for the first time in team history winning a round. They not only made the playoffs but knocked off the Presidents trophy winners in one of the biggest 1st round upset in a long time. They knew they were getting a rental, and were willing to pay the rental price.

The goal of Ottawa trading for Duchene was not met in the most extreme of ways. The goal of Clb trading for Duchene was met. I'm not sure how you can call a trade that results in failing spectacularly in your teams goals a win and one that results in meeting the teams goals a failure. Us trading for Duchene hurt short term and long term. Them trading for Duchene was actually productive short term at the cost of some long term potential.

At least with the Karlsson trade, we have a goal of rebuilding, and got assets that will help with rebuilding. We moved towards the end goal. That's a moving in the right direction to some degree regardless of it all turns out long term. We took nothing but a step backward and failed to even have short term progress towards any of the teams goals with the Duchene trade.

 

[BatherSeason]

But other scenarios, like trading Turris and maybe Karlsson, may prove that they have bigger balls than many give them credit for.

We are talking about the same GM who held on to Cody Ceci until he had absolutely no value left, so not sure we can call Dorion the a great soothsayer.

Trading Turris may have been an example of Dorion being shrewd and able to anticipate his decline (I kinda doubt it, I just think he wanted Duchene at all costs, which was definitely ballsy). However, I truly believe that the Karlsson trade was completely made out of spite and anger. Whether Karlsson is to blame or Melnyk is to blame, we will never know (and I am not really in the mood to debate that), but in no way was Dorion smart enough to predict this "so-called" decline. And we are only talking, what 15 games now? When your goaltending has a sub .900 save percentage, its tough for any defenceman to look good.