This study breaks down regression by first, second, third, and fourth liners:
http://nerdhockey.com/by-the-numbers/2015/8/7/when-do-nhl-forwards-regress
There is a serious dropoff after age 30 in terms of players who are being deployed by their teams 5v5 as first liners.
It's interesting that this guy has tried to separate the tiers of players, but I have some criticisms of his methodology:
- he's used TOI/gp as the thing that differentiates what line each player plays on, which makes sense on the surface but then when you start thinking about distribution of talent around the league there is some holes: guys like Zajac and Henrique get 1st line minutes in NJ, guys like Kucherov in TB don't. The uneven distribution of talent between teams creates a big disparity between the best 90 forwards in the league and the top 90 forwards by toi/gp in my opinion
- The regression that's being shown in this is really the regression in usage of players of each age, not so much the output per minute (which stays surprisingly constant)
- P/60 as a measure of offensive output isn't a great isolator of a players value, IMO, and is heavily influenced by the player's deployment and linemates (ie. Chris Kunitz maintained a ~2.3p/60 between 30 and 34 years old, but no one thinks that's because he's an exception, it's because he plays with the best player in the world. for 1st line players, there is many who play with franchise level talents and who's numbers would be artificially inflated in the early years and that artificial inflation would drop if their deployment does - and again I didn't see anything that made me think that this list was compiled from a rolling average list, looks like a static set chosen at a point in time then the same group of players tracked as they aged which would show up as a larger regression than had actually taken place and should actually have been attributed, at least in part, to playing with worse linemates)
- if the average player as he hits 30 is being deployed on a lower line than he as previously (which is what this is saying, more guys are deployed as 1st liners at younger ages than those at 30 and beyond) and still maintains his offensive production (the blue segmented line), that would mean that he maintains the offensive output in spite of worse linemates - and that's the average player
- it appears that this data set is 5v5, so doesn't account for any pp value that a player brings
This really looks more like an exercise to stress test the studies that are available, and it's interesting but for from perfect (which I would think the author would freely acknowledge). But let's look past the flaws for the sake of argument:
- the P/60 output of a large number of players is being averaged over a period of time, there is a deviation from the average in every one of those individual data sets - no one player is following this performance arc exactly. So while it certainly suggests that a player is likely to begin to decline in their 30's in terms of deployment (which I agree there is a considerable risk of as a result of younger, cheaper options becoming available), it doesn't suggest that there's a big drop off in production associated to aging (in fact says the opposite pretty much right off the hop)
- JVR's production over the last 2 seasons in terms of P/60 is 2.26, so if he maintains that or anywhere close to it in a 5v5 situation at ~15 mins per night, that would give him about 46pts 5v5 plus his normal 15-20 pp points to end up in the 60-65pt range. The deployment (which is what this exercise is suggesting changes over time) is at the control of the coach
So, I acknowledge the risk of regression past 30, still does not look like an intolerable risk to me. This exercise is really to show when average players make the transition away from each tier of line, not when they become less capable of playing in the same capacity
JVR not being a great 200 ft. player is a big deal. Wing is already the last position to build around.
Wingers can also still have a great impact defensively. Witness Chicago with Hossa and Sharp. Part of what made them so valuable is how they were awesome defensively (or in Sharp's case even played center sometime). JVR doesn't bring that.
If you could get JVR for 5 x 6M per then it becomes a tough decision to resign or not. But that is well under market for what he could get and I just don't see it happening.
I think you're looking at a MINIMUM of 6 years x 6 per but most likely add on a year or close to 1M in salary and there's way too much downside with almost no upside on that kind of a deal.
Dustin Brown, Andrew Ladd, Ryan Callahan, Kyle Okposo, Loui Eriksson, Milan Lucic, Brad Marchand have set the market in recent years.
As for the comparisions you noted:
Malkin, Ovi, Radulov are also all only 30. 2 of them have been Hart level candidates for most of their careers. Radulov didn't see the wear and tear of the NHL for years so he's not really a comparable.
Getzlaf and Perry at 31 are also well off their levels of a few years ago. They also had a lot further to regress.
Steen & Carter have been aging well so I'll give you that.
Optimistically I see JVR as a 30-30 for the first two years of his deal. I also see him as much closer to being a # 4 most important forward on a cup team (all around game) then a # 3 forward and that's without him having regressed yet.
Unless JVR is willing to take a huge hometown discount realistically I see it as best to deal him. The goal would be to get a youngish top 4 RD. But if that doesn't happen we could get assets that could be used down the road to bring in that top 4 Dman (and also have the long term cap flexibility).
Being tied to a big money deal to an aging winger is the last place to put your money long term. That money should go to the D group. Preventing goals is also our biggest issue.
Wing is the easiest positions for youngsters to make the jump to the NHL. And it also happens to be where our prospect pool is best.
Wing is also the easiest position to trade to bring a guy in as more of a finishing touch piece. Witness all the wingers the Kings, Pens, Bruins, Hawks brought in over the years.
Wing is also the easiest position to fill via UFA and one benefit of being a team on the rise in the "Hockey Universe" with two elite forward in Matthews + Marner is players near the end who still got a year or two of game are likely to sign with us for cheap or less to try for a cup.
Anyways, build around the D. The winger situation will be fine and short term fixes can always be found that don't require long term commitments at big dollars that have far more downside than upside.
I opt to trade him if we can't get him for 5 years or less, term is the scary part for me, I want to be free of the contract by the time he's ~34
Ovy is a 1985, so he's 31 turning 32 this year, and Radulov played in the 2nd best league in the world for the whole time he wasn't in the NHL so I disagree on the wear and tear part. Anyway there's lots of examples of guys who have regressed, and lots of examples of guys who haven't (or who have rejuvenated their careers after a down year) and we can't know where JVR fits, all we can do is measure the risk/cap impact/impact of losing him and make a decision
I agree on the trade for a young top 4 RHD, if we can get that for JVR or the assets we got for JVR, I'm all for it
The thing that I don't want to get missed is that next year is not a rebuilding year, it's a contending year. I don't disagree that our system is likely to net a viable replacement for JVR, but it has to do so in a hurry if that's the plan - we need that scoring next year. Or, if we can get a dman for JVR, maybe we look to free agency for a winger replacement
