Jvr $ (underated or overrated)

[BlueBaron]

I have not read the full thread, so my apologies if this has been mentioned earlier, but there is a nuance that has not been identified. I think when fans say that JVR is inconsistent, it is not that his season point totals are inconsistent because as many posters pointed out he has been a consistent 60 point scorer, but rather his intensity of play is inconsistent.

I argue that his skill-set outweighs his "floating" because he has certain skills such as an in front net presence on the power-play, his skills in tight, ability to play with different players, his consistent point scoring, and his playoff performances that will be difficult to replace. I hope we resign him at a reasonable cost.

In trading JVR, as a poster astutely pointed out, you must weigh the value of what we could realistically receive for JVR in his contract year, against what he would provide to our second year and potentially first year NHLers next year. He will rightfully receive a large salary after his current contract expires. There is no shame in letting an asset outlive its usefulness, if it will cost us more to retain this asset at the expense of other assets that when combined, would have a higher value.

Problem is there is some short sighted thinking in terms of how retaining him will cost us other assets. Chicago comes to mind. When your young guys get too good to stay cheap you make moves. Why does everyone ignore that we can sign him and trade him later when we have a cap crunch? I'll tell you why, people want to trade for the sake of trading and always site the same weak ass reasons. There is no prospect who projects as a #1 LW so why do people keep thinking that is an option?

It's HF stupidity. The grass is always greener, kids are better than Vets, and 29 goal scoring LW can be replaced by anyone. This is getting tired. There is no real good reason to get rid of JVR right now. There is no need and there are plenty of other options to get a good D.

 

[Menzinger]

Problem is there is some short sighted thinking in terms of how retaining him will cost us other assets. Chicago comes to mind. When your young guys get too good to stay cheap you make moves. Why does everyone ignore that we can sign him and trade him later when we have a cap crunch? I'll tell you why, people want to trade for the sake of trading and always site the same weak ass reasons. There is no prospect who projects as a #1 LW so why do people keep thinking that is an option?

It's HF stupidity. The grass is always greener, kids are better than Vets, and 29 goal scoring LW can be replaced by anyone. This is getting tired. There is no real good reason to get rid of JVR right now. There is no need and there are plenty of other options to get a good D.

Though something to keep in mind is, players on long term expensive contracts tend to get lesser trade returns than those on cheaper deals.

If JVR declines a bit and is making 6+ million he's not going to return anywhere near what he could at his current deal.

That in of itself isn't enough of a reason to trade him, but can't be ignored. You don't give a player a long term deal with the intent to trade him down the road because you have no idea if he'll be moveable then, to sign a guy for 5-7 means the team needs to be prepared to keep that player for that duration.

 

[ShaneFalco]

Problem is there is some short sighted thinking in terms of how retaining him will cost us other assets. Chicago comes to mind. When your young guys get too good to stay cheap you make moves. Why does everyone ignore that we can sign him and trade him later when we have a cap crunch? I'll tell you why, people want to trade for the sake of trading and always site the same weak ass reasons. There is no prospect who projects as a #1 LW so why do people keep thinking that is an option?

It's HF stupidity. The grass is always greener, kids are better than Vets, and 29 goal scoring LW can be replaced by anyone. This is getting tired. There is no real good reason to get rid of JVR right now. There is no need and there are plenty of other options to get a good D.

Sure there is. His trade value would be very high right now
He's not a guy I want to see signed long-term here. I think it would be one of those deals we'd regret in a few years

 

[Daisy Jane]

Problem is there is some short sighted thinking in terms of how retaining him will cost us other assets. Chicago comes to mind. When your young guys get too good to stay cheap you make moves. Why does everyone ignore that we can sign him and trade him later when we have a cap crunch? I'll tell you why, people want to trade for the sake of trading and always site the same weak ass reasons. There is no prospect who projects as a #1 LW so why do people keep thinking that is an option?

It's HF stupidity. The grass is always greener, kids are better than Vets, and 29 goal scoring LW can be replaced by anyone. This is getting tired. There is no real good reason to get rid of JVR right now. There is no need and there are plenty of other options to get a good D.

I would argue because generally speaking 6m dollar contracts don't get moved if or when the value goes down?

People don't want to trade him for the sake of trading - they want to maximize the value of a player who can score 29 goals, who will want a lot of money - and you ideally hope you can compensate for the loss of 29 goals. It doesn't necessarily have to come from rookies, I'd be very surprised if it did - but you make other kind of lateral moves, or you compensate that 29 - from the back-end (where we didn't actually get a lot of goals from this year).

no one said moving JVR would be easy, or it would be a "grass is greener".

I'm more curious to know/hear what your other options in getting a good D - without moving quality for it is?

 

[bansheebeat]

Problem is there is some short sighted thinking in terms of how retaining him will cost us other assets. Chicago comes to mind. When your young guys get too good to stay cheap you make moves. Why does everyone ignore that we can sign him and trade him later when we have a cap crunch? I'll tell you why, people want to trade for the sake of trading and always site the same weak ass reasons. There is no prospect who projects as a #1 LW so why do people keep thinking that is an option?

It's HF stupidity. The grass is always greener, kids are better than Vets, and 29 goal scoring LW can be replaced by anyone. This is getting tired. There is no real good reason to get rid of JVR right now. There is no need and there are plenty of other options to get a good D.

JVR is a solid player and 29 goals is no easy feat. Nobody is discounting that. But if Kapanen and/or Korshkov can score 25 while playing better defence and not sacrificing any physicality, isn't that also something to consider? My guess is management thinks Kapanen/Korshkov+#3/4 D is a better infusion into the lineup than JVR's consistent 29 goals.

 

[BlueBaron]

JVR is a solid player and 29 goals is no easy feat. Nobody is discounting that. But if Kapanen and/or Korshkov can score 25 while playing better defence and not sacrificing any physicality, isn't that also something to consider? My guess is management thinks Kapanen/Korshkov+#3/4 D is a better infusion into the lineup than JVR's consistent 29 goals.

Uhhh...well neither has ever done it at the NHL level and Kapanen which is the more likely of the two to achieve that is a natural RW. I cannot take the suggestion of Korshkov replacing JVR seriously at all.

My guess is management thinks getting a top 4 D and keeping JVR makes us a much better team. You are recycling weak arguments. THERE ARE MORE WAYS TO GET A TOP FOUR D THAN TRADING JVR. How about free agency which costs us nothing? How about exploiting expansion or Vegas's need for prospect depth?

The not sacrificing physicality thing suggests you have never played a contact sport against bigger people. Even if you are not a hit monster big players wear little players down over time, so it should not be dismissed so lightly. Add to that you ignore neither has his playoff experience or skill set in front of the net and you come off as a video game hockey manager.

 

[BlueBaron]

I would argue because generally speaking 6m dollar contracts don't get moved if or when the value goes down?

People don't want to trade him for the sake of trading - they want to maximize the value of a player who can score 29 goals, who will want a lot of money - and you ideally hope you can compensate for the loss of 29 goals. It doesn't necessarily have to come from rookies, I'd be very surprised if it did - but you make other kind of lateral moves, or you compensate that 29 - from the back-end (where we didn't actually get a lot of goals from this year).

no one said moving JVR would be easy, or it would be a "grass is greener".

I'm more curious to know/hear what your other options in getting a good D - without moving quality for it is?

Well Daisy since you asked so nicely (and you're such a sweety)....

1. Free agency. Costs only money and with 18 mill off the books we can afford one.

2. Pre expansion avoidance. We have a spot to protect a top 4 D because Zaitsev gets a pass. We have tons of assets that do not need to be protected.

3. Vegas. Presumably they will have a ton of #4 D and no prospects and a weak forward group. Bozak and many of our winger prospects who project as top 6 types could be of use to them. We could also theoretically part with a Dermott or a Nielson if a youngish D is coming in.

I never said there would not be a price Daisy, just that JVR is not the only way to pay that price. We also have lots of Draft picks. The fact is JVR is one of the best scoring LW in the game and if we can keep him it makes sense to have the best players you can when you go to war. We are running out of roster spots to upgrade, all of them are at D and LW, so doesn't it make more sense to deal from a position of strength than a position of weakness?

One could argue a Brown or a Kapanen is more expendable right now, Bozak certainly is. I know we all love our kids and our Draft picks but I am not sure taking away from our roster talent is the right signal to send the kids right now. I kind of feel we should be helping them move forward.

If I am GM I want to get my top 4 D without losing a roster player not named Bozak or one of our crappy non top 3 D. We do not lack in assets but for some reason our fans only see JVR as the asset to solve all their problems. Bozak would likely be Vegas's #1 C next year, surely he and some prospects/picks would have value to them.

 

[bunjay]

JVR is a solid player and 29 goals is no easy feat. Nobody is discounting that. But if Kapanen and/or Korshkov can score 25 while playing better defence and not sacrificing any physicality, isn't that also something to consider? My guess is management thinks Kapanen/Korshkov+#3/4 D is a better infusion into the lineup than JVR's consistent 29 goals.

A total of 51 forwards scored 25 or more goals this season. So unless scoring goes way up, saying that either of those two players will be 25 goal scorers is optimistic. No, optimistic would be an understatement.

 

[Avilaj07]

People keep pointing to free agency to fix our defensive issue, problem is, there are really only 2 solid top four defenseman in which will both be looking at $6mil+ and wanting a long term deal. I wouldn't give it to either Alzner or Shattenkirk. So you're next question is, who on our team do we deem tradeable and can help bring in a top 4 defenseman? Well we're not trading any of our kids, Bozak won't return a top 4 defenseman, Komorov won't, so that leaves JvR. Is he part of our long term plan, I don't think so. Sure JvR might not fetch you a Alzner or Shattenkirk type player by himself, but you attach a prospect or a pick and suddenly it's a lot more achievable. Signing JvR to a long term contract would be a massive mistake and something we would regret in year 2 or 3.

 

[Daisy Jane]

Well Daisy since you asked so nicely (and you're such a sweety)....

1. Free agency. Costs only money and with 18 mill off the books we can afford one.

lol well thank you.

1 - this is true. However, It would depend on who we targeted. let me pull up CF for a moment.

Okay there are a lot of RFA's (so i'm curious how that will apply in a expansion/flat cap year. so yes. you are right there though we'd still have to trade) - UFA wise..

I'd like Odyua.

(well. i'd like Pronger too but I don't think he's gonna be lacing them up ). I remember hearing on the radio they might go with Smith because babs knows him. I know for some Alzner is a popular consideration however some people (Pi, Canada4Gold I think) rather not do that.

2. Pre expansion avoidance. We have a spot to protect a top 4 D because Zaitsev gets a pass. We have tons of assets that do not need to be protected.

True. true.

3. Vegas. Presumably they will have a ton of #4 D and no prospects and a weak forward group. Bozak and many of our winger prospects who project as top 6 types could be of use to them. We could also theoretically part with a Dermott or a Nielson if a youngish D is coming in.

I don't see them parting with those players because they are unknown (and our two highest - three if you count Valiev) drafted defensemen. I mean ultimately yah but I don't see Shangement doing it without knowing what they've got, is what I am saying. unless it's for a well known RFA then yah.

I never said there would not be a price Daisy, just that JVR is not the only way to pay that price. We also have lots of Draft picks. The fact is JVR is one of the best scoring LW in the game and if we can keep him it makes sense to have the best players you can when you go to war. We are running out of roster spots to upgrade, all of them are at D and LW, so doesn't it make more sense to deal from a position of strength than a position of weakness?

probably because for some people they want to trade quality for some quality and JVR can provide that. Which - isn't wrong. I do see the Leafs doing an "own rental" if there's not a better option for them though.

One could argue a Brown or a Kapanen is more expendable right now, Bozak certainly is. I know we all love our kids and our Draft picks but I am not sure taking away from our roster talent is the right signal to send the kids right now. I kind of feel we should be helping them move forward.

If I am GM I want to get my top 4 D without losing a roster player not named Bozak or one of our crappy non top 3 D. We do not lack in assets but for some reason our fans only see JVR as the asset to solve all their problems. Bozak would likely be Vegas's #1 C next year, surely he and some prospects/picks would have value to them.

i don't agree that Brown is expendable. (right now). you could say that w/Kapenen but i do think he checks the "speed" box for sure for us. and perhaps they don't want to move Bozak because they want to ease Nylander into centre. so i wouldnt say he's 100 percent expendable either.

it's a sticky wicket.

 

[BlueBaron]

lol well thank you.

1 - this is true. However, It would depend on who we targeted. let me pull up CF for a moment.

Okay there are a lot of RFA's (so i'm curious how that will apply in a expansion/flat cap year. so yes. you are right there though we'd still have to trade) - UFA wise..

I'd like Odyua.

(well. i'd like Pronger too but I don't think he's gonna be lacing them up ). I remember hearing on the radio they might go with Smith because babs knows him. I know for some Alzner is a popular consideration however some people (Pi, Canada4Gold I think) rather not do that.



True. true.



I don't see them parting with those players because they are unknown (and our two highest - three if you count Valiev) drafted defensemen. I mean ultimately yah but I don't see Shangement doing it without knowing what they've got, is what I am saying. unless it's for a well known RFA then yah.



probably because for some people they want to trade quality for some quality and JVR can provide that. Which - isn't wrong. I do see the Leafs doing an "own rental" if there's not a better option for them though.




i don't agree that Brown is expendable. (right now). you could say that w/Kapenen but i do think he checks the "speed" box for sure for us. and perhaps they don't want to move Bozak because they want to ease Nylander into centre. so i wouldnt say he's 100 percent expendable either.

it's a sticky wicket.

Look I would not be keen to part with Kap or Brown or our 1rst round pick either, a 20 goal rookie season and a playoff hero. This year is a rare opportunity to get D at a discount due to expansion and our Zaitsev ninja spot.

My point is there are many ways to solve the problem and JVR really does not seem like the most practical one.

Lou is no fool and I am sure he will get something done. Maybe I prove to be wrong but all indications are JVR is in their plans and after this years playoff push it seems unlikely management will risk a step back by moving him. I am 99% sure we can get a top 4 D without losing a significant roster player because of the year it is.

 

[Gabriel426]

It really depends on the piece that is coming back when dealing with JVR and Bozak. Those two are part of this playoff team and esp JVR who has been Beastmode.

What I am trying to say is that if and when the Leafs trade those two, the package coming back must make the Leafs better now and not two-three years down the line. Leafs should be building toward a contender and not rebuilding.

 

[nuck]

Problem is there is some short sighted thinking in terms of how retaining him will cost us other assets. Chicago comes to mind. When your young guys get too good to stay cheap you make moves. Why does everyone ignore that we can sign him and trade him later when we have a cap crunch? I'll tell you why, people want to trade for the sake of trading and always site the same weak ass reasons. There is no prospect who projects as a #1 LW so why do people keep thinking that is an option?

It's HF stupidity. The grass is always greener, kids are better than Vets, and 29 goal scoring LW can be replaced by anyone. This is getting tired. There is no real good reason to get rid of JVR right now. There is no need and there are plenty of other options to get a good D.

If he signs for $6M he will want a NM clause. When his game declines, with a short list of trading partners and a fat contract, he might not be dealable. Look at all the 30+ guys signed to 35+ deals. Nobody trades for these guys. From a value standpoint if he were 2 or 3 years younger, you could sign him to a 6-7 year term knowing you aren't buying a 35 point winger for the last half, but that isn't the case.
Clubs overpay for their scorers on their final deals when they don't have four younger ones. He is a luxury.

You need to re-sign him with the understanding you are likely to own the entire contract. The real issue isn't that they need his return to generate a top 4 D man, its more the cap room his contract eats. Every contender is stretched for Cap space every year. When they want to add a big dollar defenseman they will need that space. He is a luxury.

 

[Menzinger]

Eh if I had to guess between JVR van bozal for whose more likely to be moved this offseason I'd say Bozak without hesitation.

The thing about Brown/Kapanen cs JVR is that Leafs could have both of those guys under contract for the next 3 or so seasons at a combined cost of less than 4.5 million.

 

[BlueBaron]

If he signs for $6M he will want a NM clause. When his game declines, with a short list of trading partners and a fat contract, he might not be dealable. Look at all the 30+ guys signed to 35+ deals. Nobody trades for these guys. From a value standpoint if he were 2 or 3 years younger, you could sign him to a 6-7 year term knowing you aren't buying a 35 point winger for the last half, but that isn't the case.
Clubs overpay for their scorers on their final deals when they don't have four younger ones. He is a luxury.

You need to re-sign him with the understanding you are likely to own the entire contract. The real issue isn't that they need his return to generate a top 4 D man, its more the cap room his contract eats. Every contender is stretched for Cap space every year. When they want to add a big dollar defenseman they will need that space. He is a luxury.

Again, these problems have been solved by Chicago over and over again. Our mighty money powers give us a huge edge when dealing with contracts we do not like, this has been demonstrated all year.

I'm not a big fan of predicting contracts because there are many variables to factor in. It is entirely possible JVR wants to be here and will show some flexibility like Kadri and Rielly did.

Bottom line is until July 1rst we do not know what his ask will be and if that can be done smartly. I have always maintained we wait til July first and open talks and if they cannot make something happen that makes sense than we adapt and move on.

For all we know he loves being a leaf and agrees to a 3 year 6 mil deal. Without knowing it is stupid to make any kind of decision.

Psychic predictions that claim a good deal is not possible hold little weight in argument (look at what Stamkos did). If you look at all the money coming off the books in the next couple years we only have 25 mil committed the year after next with several core players already signed and many others as RFA's. We are not in cap trouble and do not appear to have cap crunch issues on the horizon. Throw in a 7 million dollar D and we still have plenty of room.

Why is it Chicago could get rid of players that were not as good as JVR but we won't be able to?

No reason.

One could argue that because of all the ECL and RFA contracts for the next few years now is precisely the time we can afford a JVR taking advantage of our excellent payroll position.