JVR discussion thread - Stay - Go - Play ?

[TIGERCOOL]

Let him go. We need to start making space for our young depth guys and we've all forgotten how frustratingly inconsistent he was this year.

People need to accept that our team might be worse next year. Young guys will all get better, our D will hopefully improve, but we're going to lose some of the vets who put up solid seasons and gave us so much scoring depth.

Small step back so that we can take a big one forward in the near future. Last thing we need is an aging JVR who already has compete issues locked in our lineup at a sizable cap hit for the next 5 years. Same goes for Bozak.

 

[BlueBaron]

It seems some people are scared to give a good player good money. You realize how easy it would be to trade a player like JVR , even if its just a cap dump for a pick? He won't handcuff us whatsoever. The cap will get bigger as well...

Yes this another point that keeps getting lost, if in 2 years we cannot afford him we can always trade him. Sometimes it feels like people want us to lock up the perfect roster for the next ten years and never have any player movement which is just not how the NHL works. Chicago managed to do it and so can we.

The fact is the same reasons are recycled over and over again, disproven and then people back off for a couple days, come back and use the same reasons again forgetting they have already been shown as flimsy. I am almost tempted to ask the Mods to sticky a "Reasons we do not need to trade JVR for a D" list. It would save me a lot of typing. I have yet to see one good reason to trade him in like 2 years. The closest thing to a good reason has been he is not a wicked two way player as if any team has a roster where everyone is a great two way player.

 

[White Shadow]

regressed and yet made the allstar team, so odd.

You do realize he was an injury replacement and mainly chosen because he was already going to be in the skills competition?

 

[BlueBaron]

Let him go. We need to start making space for our young depth guys and we've all forgotten how frustratingly inconsistent he was this year.

People need to accept that our team might be worse next year. Young guys will all get better, our D will hopefully improve, but we're going to lose some of the vets who put up solid seasons and gave us so much scoring depth.

Small step back so that we can take a big one forward in the near future. Last thing we need is an aging JVR who already has compete issues locked in our lineup at a sizable cap hit for the next 5 years. Same goes for Bozak.

*sigh* Fiction.

We can actually afford to keep every Vet on the team but I will agree Bozak is probably moved. This of course has nothing to do with JVR. Unless you expect the rookies to take steps backward there is no reason to believe we are not going to be as good or better next year.

You do not make space for depth guys by trading number 1 LW on a team that had a weak LW. Well you might but it is not especially logical if you do not need to do it. We could take a major step forward next year if we add some D and retain our vets, all of which we can afford to do. I do not see why people are trying so hard to convince us to make our team worse.

 

[BlueBaron]

Holy overraction Batman.

First: Can i expect Matthews to sign a series of 1 year deals to protect the Leafs from a bad long term deal? Anyone else thinks that he isnt getting 7 or 8 years?

Believe all you want but there is no chance in hell JVR signs 3 years. Its not a psychic prediction rather reality by using past signings of comparable players - called reading the market his agent will do the same to maximize the money and term he gets. JVR was better than most of the guys i listed. He is getting at least 5 years unless he has a major injury.

Second: Do you know how to read? Yes i would agree Leo, Hyman and Martin would probably be the worst LW group in the league. But i said if they trade JVR or let him walk then that means on of Marner or Nylander is moving over to LW...

Leo/Hyman/Martin + Marner or Nylander >> Leo/Hyman/Martin + JVR

Third: Then I guess we shouldnt have put Nylander, Hyman, and Marner on the wing because they were centremen. Martin has played both left and right. Smith is a winger who played centre. Rielly and Gardiner have played some of both sides due to injuries of other D-men. If we have done this all year for 4-5 forwards then i am sure we wont have a problem with a right winger moving to left wing.

Clearly you do not or you would not have ignored that very point was addressed in my third point.

I'm not sure how providing counter arguments to your weak claims is an overreaction.

Ok, for argument sake let's pretend your psychic knowledge of the term JVR demands is true. Can we not trade him later taking advantage of him for two more years?

Absolutely I expect us to try and lock up Matthews, our Franchise player, to an 8 year deal. Let's not pretend he and JVR are in the same situation.

The Marner and Nylander arguments are especially weak considering Marner is not a centre and has not played a significant percentage of his career as one. Nylander is very versatile and could be the solution but then you ignore the stated plan to move him to C.

Do you have any valid points to make?

 

[TIGERCOOL]

*sigh* Fiction.

We can actually afford to keep every Vet on the team but I will agree Bozak is probably moved. This of course has nothing to do with JVR. Unless you expect the rookies to take steps backward there is no reason to believe we are not going to be as good or better next year.

You do not make space for depth guys by trading number 1 LW on a team that had a weak LW. Well you might but it is not especially logical if you do not need to do it. We could take a major step forward next year if we add some D and retain our vets, all of which we can afford to do. I do not see why people are trying so hard to convince us to make our team worse.

We can afford to do it now, but we'll all be shaking our heads and calling our management morons for doing it in a few years when we need to start paying the actual core of this team. People are suggesting getting a bit worse next year as a possibility because our management has shown a willingness to see the big picture and not cater to an impulsive fan base and recency bias.

We have a ton of very talented young players we can transition into our lineup next year who can start off in the NHL playing the way Babcock wants them to, not the listless and half-hearted way JVR and Bozak learned with the old regime.

We are still rebuilding. We're still a few years from contending. I know we're all excited about this playoff run, but have some perspective.

 

[Darcy Tucker]

We can afford to do it now, but we'll all be shaking our heads and calling our management morons for doing it in a few years when we need to start paying the actual core of this team. People are suggesting getting a bit worse next year as a possibility because our management has shown a willingness to see the big picture and not cater to an impulsive fan base and recency bias.

We have a ton of very talented young players we can transition into our lineup next year who can start off in the NHL playing the way Babcock wants them to, not the listless and half-hearted way JVR and Bozak learned with the old regime.

We are still rebuilding. We're still a few years from contending. I know we're all excited about this playoff run, but have some perspective.

JVR and Bozak are great players in their own right ,that many teams would love to have. They have nothing to do with the old era. Should we dump Kadri and Gardiner too?

 

[White Shadow]

We can afford to do it now, but we'll all be shaking our heads and calling our management morons for doing it in a few years when we need to start paying the actual core of this team. People are suggesting getting a bit worse next year as a possibility because our management has shown a willingness to see the big picture and not cater to an impulsive fan base and recency bias.

We have a ton of very talented young players we can transition into our lineup next year who can start off in the NHL playing the way Babcock wants them to, not the listless and half-hearted way JVR and Bozak learned with the old regime.

We are still rebuilding. We're still a few years from contending. I know we're all excited about this playoff run, but have some perspective.

While I do agree with most of what you are saying, the rebuild has gone much faster than expected. For what it's worth, there is at least one NHL coach who sees us as being in the final four next season:

http://www.espn.com.au/nhl/story/_/...p-playoffs-secret-toronto-maple-leafs-success

 

[Faltorvo]

We can afford to do it now, but we'll all be shaking our heads and calling our management morons for doing it in a few years when we need to start paying the actual core of this team. People are suggesting getting a bit worse next year as a possibility because our management has shown a willingness to see the big picture and not cater to an impulsive fan base and recency bias.

We have a ton of very talented young players we can transition into our lineup next year who can start off in the NHL playing the way Babcock wants them to, not the listless and half-hearted way JVR and Bozak learned with the old regime.

We are still rebuilding. We're still a few years from contending. I know we're all excited about this playoff run, but have some perspective.

after what management has seen this year injecting 7/8 rookies

do we really think they will worry about adding 3/4 next season?

heh, i don't , if anything they will be encouraged to

 

[Walshy7]

While I do agree with most of what you are saying, the rebuild has gone much faster than expected. For what it's worth, there is at least one NHL coach who sees us as being in the final four next season:

http://www.espn.com.au/nhl/story/_/...p-playoffs-secret-toronto-maple-leafs-success

eh I really dislike the quotes when they are from "one eastern conference coach" there is no accountability or way of knowing if they are even real. Seems way to perfect for someone writing an article when the person being quoted isn't named.

Even if the quote is real it could be a rival teams coach trying to put little bits of added pressure on the leafs for next season too

 

[TIGERCOOL]

JVR and Bozak are great players in their own right ,that many teams would love to have. They have nothing to do with the old era. Should we dump Kadri and Gardiner too?

No. Kadri has transformed under Babcock's guidance and we need skilled Dmen more than anything (though Gardiner is also frustratingly non-chalant at times).

Let's be careful with the terms we toss around here. Neither of these guys are great. Bozak is a middling center who is good on faceoffs. JVR is a talented and useful winger with an abysmal defensive game who is going to fetch far more than he's worth in free agency.

Both are past their prime, both are somewhat lacking in their leadership capabilities. They are the defenition of expendable to a young team looking to save money for an exceptional rookie core.

 

[BlueBaron]

We can afford to do it now, but we'll all be shaking our heads and calling our management morons for doing it in a few years when we need to start paying the actual core of this team. People are suggesting getting a bit worse next year as a possibility because our management has shown a willingness to see the big picture and not cater to an impulsive fan base and recency bias.

We have a ton of very talented young players we can transition into our lineup next year who can start off in the NHL playing the way Babcock wants them to, not the listless and half-hearted way JVR and Bozak learned with the old regime.

We are still rebuilding. We're still a few years from contending. I know we're all excited about this playoff run, but have some perspective.

JVR and Bozak have looked pretty good this playoffs and JVR is a listless 29 goal scorer, #2 on the team.

I'll humour you though. Let's say all the kids get 80 points next year. Nylander needs 7 million to sign and so we do. The following year Matthews leads the league in scoring and Marner is 2nd and have pay them both 10 million dollars.

Do you think Lou will not realise he can trade JVR to make space or do you think he will refuse to trade him and not sign Marner and Matthews?

I'm also going to have to respectfully disagree about the rebuilding part. We are a real team now and it sends the wrong signal to the kids deliberately getting worse for cap management reasons two years down the road. Reasons that are fictional and easily solved by a trade. We are in the getting better business now not the getting worse business. See the Boyle trade, not really a rebuilding move.

 

[White Shadow]

eh I really dislike the quotes when they are from "one eastern conference coach" there is no accountability or way of knowing if they are even real. Seems way to perfect for someone writing an article when the person being quoted isn't named.

Even if the quote is real it could be a rival teams coach trying to put little bits of added pressure on the leafs for next season too

There's a lot of truth in what you say, if it wasn't LeBrun or another journalist of his ilk, I would question it too. I just thought it was an interesting article. I enjoyed hearing how we are perceived by other coaches.

 

[Faltorvo]

While I do agree with most of what you are saying, the rebuild has gone much faster than expected. For what it's worth, there is at least one NHL coach who sees us as being in the final four next season:

http://www.espn.com.au/nhl/story/_/...p-playoffs-secret-toronto-maple-leafs-success

and then i am reminded of this

2013/14 Colorado

82 52 22 8 112


2014/15
Calgary Flames 82 45 30 4 3 97


so, i think i will slow roll this young team.

 

[White Shadow]

JVR and Bozak have looked pretty good this playoffs and JVR is a listless 29 goal scorer, #2 on the team.

I'll humour you though. Let's say all the kids get 80 points next year. Nylander needs 7 million to sign and so we do. The following year Matthews leads the league in scoring and Marner is 2nd and have pay them both 10 million dollars.

Do you think Lou will not realise he can trade JVR to make space or do you think he will refuse to trade him and not sign Marner and Matthews?

I'm also going to have to respectfully disagree about the rebuilding part. We are a real team now and it sends the wrong signal to the kids deliberately getting worse for cap management reasons two years down the road. Reasons that are fictional and easily solved by a trade. We are in the getting better business now not the getting worse business. See the Boyle trade, not really a rebuilding move.

Isn't that the reason most cited for trading JVR? It would be nice to get out of the overage penalty cycle before Matthews and Marner get their raises.

 

[sxvnert]

None. Either keep him until next TDL or trade him this summer. I prefer option one in case the youngsters are off to a slow start next season.

For example: Blues traded Shattenkirk and are one game away from the 2nd round.

 

[Walshy7]

There's a lot of truth in what you say, if it wasn't LeBrun or another journalist of his ilk, I would question it too. I just thought it was an interesting article. I enjoyed hearing how we are perceived by other coaches.

yeah lebrun's name is gives it a lot more credibility for sure.

 

[TIGERCOOL]

JVR and Bozak have looked pretty good this playoffs and JVR is a listless 29 goal scorer, #2 on the team.

I'll humour you though. Let's say all the kids get 80 points next year. Nylander needs 7 million to sign and so we do. The following year Matthews leads the league in scoring and Marner is 2nd and have pay them both 10 million dollars.

Do you think Lou will not realise he can trade JVR to make space or do you think he will refuse to trade him and not sign Marner and Matthews?

I'm also going to have to respectfully disagree about the rebuilding part. We are a real team now and it sends the wrong signal to the kids deliberately getting worse for cap management reasons two years down the road. Reasons that are fictional and easily solved by a trade. We are in the getting better business now not the getting worse business. See the Boyle trade, not really a rebuilding move.

We have to resign Gardiner, Zaitsev, Carrick, Marincin, Komorov, Bozak, JVR, Nylander, Marner, Matthews, Leivo, Sosh, Brown, and Boyle in the next two years.

JVR is already pulling 4.5 million, will be looking for a substantial raise, and will be 28-29 years old when he gets it. Around that same time we will have any one of Grundstum, Korshkov, Leivo, Johnsson, Kapanen, Timashov, Leipsic, Bracco, Dzierkals, Brooks, Rychel, Korostalev banging down the door for starting NHL jobs.

The only fiction is believing that tough calls don't need to be made on aging talent. We're not in a rush here. Our 3 best players for the next decade are under the age of 21. The last thing we want is to shoot ourselves in the foot with bad contracts that are hard to trade because we got too antsy after a solid playoff run.

 

[BlueBaron]

You listed a lot of guys who may not even be in our plans.

I am not going to argue any more. The math shows it is doable if he is 6 mil ish. If you feel strongly we need to clear caps space for 2 years from now and trading JVR later if we need to is not an option for some reason I am too tired to show all the flaws with that again.

18 Mil off the books this year. 16 more the following year. Cap will rise. If the plan is Nylander at C how is Bozak in our plans etc etc etc.

Believe what you want.

 

[The CyNick]

Nylander and Marner are both ahead of Tarasenko after one full year in the N, and Senk was older than both. He got 7.5M after ELC. Assuming Marner and Nylander continue to progress, that's likely the baseline number you're looking at for both. 6M for either guy would mean they regressed in season two. I would assume birth will be locked up summer of 2018.

Matthews is going to have his number set by McDavid this July.

I believe someone will give JVR 6Mx6, which is 36M. I think we can offer him 5Mx7 with maximized money up front. From a time value of money perspective, the lower total salary would be offset by having more money sooner. On top of that, it makes his contract more moveable. So if he falls off slight later in his career, he doesn't wind up like a guy like Lupul. If someone offers him 7Mx6 or more, I would be out on him. Either way, I would keep him for next year, because we should challenge for the Cup. We only have two years to take advantage of cap space by having MNM on ELCs.

 

[nuck]

JVR and Bozak have looked pretty good this playoffs and JVR is a listless 29 goal scorer, #2 on the team.

I'll humour you though. Let's say all the kids get 80 points next year. Nylander needs 7 million to sign and so we do. The following year Matthews leads the league in scoring and Marner is 2nd and have pay them both 10 million dollars.

Do you think Lou will not realise he can trade JVR to make space or do you think he will refuse to trade him and not sign Marner and Matthews?

I'm also going to have to respectfully disagree about the rebuilding part. We are a real team now and it sends the wrong signal to the kids deliberately getting worse for cap management reasons two years down the road. Reasons that are fictional and easily solved by a trade. We are in the getting better business now not the getting worse business. See the Boyle trade, not really a rebuilding move.

I would agree with you if he is still a 50+ pt player when they discover they don't want to keep him. In three years when JVR is in year two of a 6 x $6.5M contract and his game starts to get weak there will be no lineup of suitors. A 29 year old player signed for six or seven years has a better than 50-50 chance of being in decline by age 30. If you sign a guy for market value and he has years left in a 30+ deal nobody deals for that guy, they go sign a free agent and save their assets.

What he reliably is, is a front line talent for the next two or three years, and you pay for a bunch of decline to own those peak years. Their window is more than three years so they don't need to buy those extra years to have a solid core of scoring. Don't look at him for the next couple of years, look at the comparables and better players at 30+. He isn't a Backes or an Iginla that plays a heavy physical game they lack and he isn't a defensive stud so when he isn't scoring he isn't helping much. JVR today isn't a tough decision, but from 30-35 he is a less reliable guy to perform with maybe a 1 in 3 chance to nose dive like Bobby Ryan or Vinny Lecavalier. Its easy to trade for a winger if you need one and you don't need to get married to huge salary or in long term obligations if you choose the right guy.

 

[Trapper]

First of all, anything over 6 and it's trade time.
That being said, I have no problem keeping JVR but it needs to be on a tradeable contract.
If/when you need to move players, you can.

 

[HockeyAndWings]

Nylander and Marner are both ahead of Tarasenko after one full year in the N, and Senk was older than both. He got 7.5M after ELC. Assuming Marner and Nylander continue to progress, that's likely the baseline number you're looking at for both. 6M for either guy would mean they regressed in season two. I would assume birth will be locked up summer of 2018.

Matthews is going to have his number set by McDavid this July.

I believe someone will give JVR 6Mx6, which is 36M. I think we can offer him 5Mx7 with maximized money up front. From a time value of money perspective, the lower total salary would be offset by having more money sooner. On top of that, it makes his contract more moveable. So if he falls off slight later in his career, he doesn't wind up like a guy like Lupul. If someone offers him 7Mx6 or more, I would be out on him. Either way, I would keep him for next year, because we should challenge for the Cup. We only have two years to take advantage of cap space by having MNM on ELCs.

You could make an argument that Tarasenko is overpaid considering he only had one good season by the end of his ELC. Other players like Patrick Kane who were younger when they came off 3 strong seasons at the end of their ELC and won a stanley cup, only signed a 6.3M contract for 5 years.

Marner and Nylander should get something in the 5.5-6M range over 6 years when you consider that players like Kane who were coming off stronger seasons only got a bit over 6M.

 

[NarcoPolo]

under 5 ideally

 

[Menzinger]

You could make an argument that Tarasenko is overpaid considering he only had one good season by the end of his ELC. Other players like Patrick Kane who were younger when they came off 3 strong seasons at the end of their ELC and won a stanley cup, only signed a 6.3M contract for 5 years.

Marner and Nylander should get something in the 5.5-6M range over 6 years when you consider that players like Kane who were coming off stronger seasons only got a bit over 6M.

That Kane contract also happened 7 years ago, not really going to set the standard for a deal in the 2018-2019 period