LeBrun: Johnsson and Leafs closing in on extension (4 years, $3.4M AAV)

[BoredBrandonPridham]

Here, spent another minute to update it for you by removing Kadri.

Upper limit (Per Capfriendly)	81,500,000.00
Less:
Currently used 16 spots	(67,959,699.00)
Projected cap space	13,540,301.00
Less:
Johnson	(3,400,000.00)
Kapanen	(3,250,000.00)
Projected 18/23 spots	6,890,301.00
11F / 5D / 2G
Adjust re: Horton LTIR	5,300,000.00
Updated projected cap space	12,190,301.00
Ennis	(750,000.00)
Borgman	(700,000.00)
Rosen	(750,000.00)
Marincin	(800,000.00)
Projected 21/23 spots
12F / 8D / 2G	9,190,301.00
Assuming the 13th F is Marner
13F / 8D / 2G - 23/23
You have 9.19M left to sign Marner. So trades
must happen before he can sign.
Remove Zaitsev	4,500,000.00
Replacement: Liljegren	(863,333.00)
Post Zaitsev cap available	12,826,968.00
Remove Brown	2,100,000.00
Replacement: Bracco	(842,500.00)
Post Z + Brown cap avail.	14,084,468.00
Marner cap estimate	(11,500,000.00)
Cap flexibility	2,584,468.00

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Gives them roughly 2.58M to ice players at 1M AAV rather than AHLers. still means the overall quality of the roster will dip. (Above calculation has 13 of the 23 players being sub-million dollar players.)

At best the Leafs can "improve" one of their 5 sub-million dollar AAV defensemen to a 3.5M defenseman.

You signed Marner at $11.5?? Let me guess, you jumped all over the non-report that he turned down $11mx8 No one even reported that, Friedman started that rumour literally saying that he doesn’t know if Marner was even offered $11m. But I see you apply the same critical analysis to cap calculations as you do to fact checking your information/rumours.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

Even then, you remove the trade of Kadri from the equation, maybe Connor Brown depending on the definitive Marner AAV. That still means an overall decline in the quality of their defensive group, and in the depth of their forward group.

At best it keeps them as a bubble team to make the playoffs.

Gardiner was a 3rd pairing guy for us this year. He is a good player when healthy but the loss of him is being over stated everywhere.

 

[xNogaitx]

You signed Marner at $11.5?? Let me guess, you jumped all over the non-report that he turned down $11mx8 No one even reported that, Friedman started that rumour literally saying that he doesn’t know if Marner was even offered $11m. But I see you apply the same critical analysis to cap calculations as you do to fact checking your information/rumours.

Now if that's the only thing you take out of that calculation, I don't know what else to tell you.

Even if say Marner takes a "discount" at 10.5M AAV (scenario that most leafs fans would be hopefull for), that only brings up "cap space available" to roughly 3.5M after the following:

Traded Marleau, Brown, and Zaitsev away.
Let go of Gardiner, Hainsey.

The Leafs at this point would be icing 13, I repeat, 13 sub-million dollar AAV players. Most of which are sub-million dollar players because they are either AHL-level quality, or reclamation projects.

This is literally Oilers-level type of roster makeup. A few top end players signed, and the rest are non-NHL quality players. If you can't see how this could turn into the Leafs missing the playoffs more often than not until they get some ease under the cap then I don't know what else to tell you.

In the Atlantic next year you have Tampa and Boston as playoffs locks, both Montreal and Florida with improved rosters that will battle for the last playoff spot. The Metro which had 5 teams last year mostly improved over last year with the additions of Hughes & Kaapo.

Heck, even Buffalo could turn it up a notch.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

Now if that's the only thing you take out of that calculation, I don't know what else to tell you.

Even if say Marner takes a "discount" at 10.5M AAV (scenario that most leafs fans would be hopefull for), that only brings up "cap space available" to roughly 3.5M after the following:

Traded Marleau, Brown, and Zaitsev away.
Let go of Gardiner, Hainsey.

The Leafs at this point would be icing 13, I repeat, 13 sub-million dollar AAV players. Most of which are sub-million dollar players because they are either AHL-level quality, or reclamation projects.

This is literally Oilers-level type of roster makeup. A few top end players signed, and the rest are non-NHL quality players. If you can't see how this could turn into the Leafs missing the playoffs more often than not until they get some ease under the cap then I don't know what else to tell you.

In the Atlantic next year you have Tampa and Boston as playoffs locks, both Montreal and Florida with improved rosters that will battle for the last playoff spot. The Metro which had 5 teams last year mostly improved over last year with the additions of Hughes & Kaapo.

Heck, even Buffalo could turn it up a notch.

It is pretty damn early into the off season and lots of moves are left to be made yet to be getting into all of this and acting like there is any certainty to what the Leafs roster will look like. I wouldn't be shocked if the Leafs take a slight fall back into a wild card spot next season myself but it is one year of being hampered by the cap before having flexibility again going forward.

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

Now if that's the only thing you take out of that calculation, I don't know what else to tell you.

Even if say Marner takes a "discount" at 10.5M AAV (scenario that most leafs fans would be hopefull for), that only brings up "cap space available" to roughly 3.5M after the following:

Traded Marleau, Brown, and Zaitsev away.
Let go of Gardiner, Hainsey.

The Leafs at this point would be icing 13, I repeat, 13 sub-million dollar AAV players. Most of which are sub-million dollar players because they are either AHL-level quality, or reclamation projects.

This is literally Oilers-level type of roster makeup. A few top end players signed, and the rest are non-NHL quality players. If you can't see how this could turn into the Leafs missing the playoffs more often than not until they get some ease under the cap then I don't know what else to tell you.

In the Atlantic next year you have Tampa and Boston as playoffs locks, both Montreal and Florida with improved rosters that will battle for the last playoff spot. The Metro which had 5 teams last year mostly improved over last year with the additions of Hughes & Kaapo.

Heck, even Buffalo could turn it up a notch.

Oh no what will the Leafs ever do without Brown and Zaitsev?

You’ve already subbed in Liljegren and Bracco on your cap calculation. And you include all of Rosen Marincin and Borgman that would leave us with:

Rielly
Muzzin
Dermott
Borgman
Marincin
Rosen
Liljegren
Holl

On Defense in our NHL roster? How many defensemen do you think we need I wonder?

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

scenario that most leafs fans would be hopefull for

A signing projection from a poster that has demonstrated themselves to be one of the best cap management minds on HFBoards, no less

 

[xNogaitx]

Oh no what will the Leafs ever do without Brown and Zaitsev?

You’ve already subbed in Liljegren and Bracco on your cap calculation. And you include all of Rosen Marincin and Borgman that would leave us with:

Rielly
Muzzin
Dermott
Borgman
Marincin
Rosen
Liljegren
Holl

On Defense in our NHL roster? How many defensemen do you think we need I wonder?

You do realize that just about every NHL team usually carries 23 players on their roster right? Some will have 14 forwards, 7 defensemen, and 2 goalies, others will have 13 forwards, 8 defensemen, and 2 goalies, or you can even have a situation with 13 forwards, 7 defensemen, and 3 goalies.

That calculation took into account the somewhat "most nhl ready yet well below 1M AAV" players to keep the costs AS LOW AS POSSIBLE.

But hey, you want to live in a dream world, go at it.

 

[bukwas]

3.4 x 4 would be a pretty sweet deal for Johnsson.

 

[HandshakeLineRespect]

You do realize that just about every NHL team usually carries 23 players on their roster right? Some will have 14 forwards, 7 defensemen, and 2 goalies, others will have 13 forwards, 8 defensemen, and 2 goalies, or you can even have a situation with 13 forwards, 7 defensemen, and 3 goalies.

That calculation took into account the somewhat "most nhl ready yet well below 1M AAV" players to keep the costs AS LOW AS POSSIBLE.

But hey, you want to live in a dream world, go at it.

You’re out to lunch.

 

[I am not exposed]

Looks like a good deal for the Leafs.

 

[Mersss]

Leafs cap availability is pretty funny. I did the math to see how it would play out.

Upper limit (Per Capfriendly)	81,500,000.00
Less:
Currently used 16 spots	(67,959,699.00)
Projected cap space	13,540,301.00
Less:
Johnson	(3,400,000.00)
Kapanen	(3,250,000.00)
Projected 18/23 spots	6,890,301.00
11F / 5D / 2G
Ennis	(750,000.00)
Borgman	(700,000.00)
Rosen	(750,000.00)
Marincin	(800,000.00)
Projected 22/23 spots
12F / 8D / 2G	3,890,301.00
Assuming the 13th F is Marner
13F / 8D / 2G - 23/23
You have 3.89M left to sign Marner. So trades
must happen before he can sign.
Remove Zaitsev	4,500,000.00
Replacement: Liljegren	(863,333.00)
Post Zaitsev cap available	7,526,968.00
Remove Brown	2,100,000.00
Replacement: Bracco	(842,500.00)
Post Z + Brown cap avail.	8,784,468.00
Next in line at that point then becomes Kadri
Remove Kadri	4,500,000.00
Replacement: Brooks?	(759,167.00)
Post Z + B + Kadri cap avail.	12,525,301.00
Marner cap estimate	(11,500,000.00)
Cap flexibility	1,025,301.00

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

So assuming those trades (Brown, Zaitsev, and Kadri) because otherwise, the Leafs don't have enough cap space under any other scenario to sign Marner, it's pretty safe to say that the Leafs are not going to make the playoffs next year. That 1M in cap flexibility can be used at this point to keep for later in the season at the TDL (more cumulated space) or to upgrade on one of the replacement level players (say with signatures around the 1M mark.)

The 18/19 Leafs were 4 points out of not making the playoffs, and next year's roster will include 4 prospects/AHLer level players on their blueline, they no longer have the "3 headed monster" down the middle, and are weakening their overall forward group depth/strength.

My guess is they do not make the playoffs in 19/20.

You just traded your 2020 /st round pick to get rid of Marleau, How muich do you think it'll cost the Leafs to egt rid of Zaitsevs's hit bud?

No team is taking him w/out a serious incentive to do so, and w/out that 2020 1st, the only thing that makes sens for receiving team is Liljegren or Sandin

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

You just traded your 2020 /st round pick to get rid of Marleau, How muich do you think it'll cost the Leafs to egt rid of Zaitsevs's hit bud?

No team is taking him w/out a serious incentive to do so, and w/out that 2020 1st, the only thing that makes sens for receiving team is Liljegren or Sandin

Except Zaitsev is an NHL player, someone will take him without a sweetener.

 

[Mersss]

Except Zaitsev is an NHL player, someone will take him without a sweetener.

Zaistev plays like a #5-6 D-man, Marleau was still a good 3rd/4th liner.

BOTH were Overapaid, but Marleau had only a year left

Zaitsev has 5 more years at @ cap hit of a #3-4, when playing like a #5-6D

NO GM is going to tak that contract whitout at least a 1st round pick (or something worth a 1st round pick) coming back.

Saying Zaitsev is still a NHL player is like saying Brandon Manning is still a NHL playr. Obviously yes, but doesn't change the fact they stink for the price they're getting paid at

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

Zaistev plays like a #5-6 D-man,

Z is a passable #4. The tough usage he takes makes him look worse than he is. Someone will take him with a positive return or Leafs will just find a way to keep him. Probably by signing a project to eat more of those tough minutes.

Marleau was still a good 3rd/4th liner.

Considering a “good 3rd liner” is overselling it quite a bit. He was an average 4th liner last season and on steep decline.

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

The 18/19 Leafs were 4 points out of not making the playoffs, and next year's roster will include 4 prospects/AHLer level players on their blueline, they no longer have the "3 headed monster" down the middle, and are weakening their overall forward group depth/strength.

So after I educated you on the cap situation, let’s revisit your lulz:

- next years blue line has at least 3 NHL regulars (Rielly, Muzzin, Dermott). Also we have many sub-$1m defensemen that could compete as a walk on for Z’s Replacement (if he’s traded). Plus some wiggle room to take a bit of salary back on D if needed.
- 3 headed monster on C still fully in tact
- forward group may lose a replacement level player in Brown, however full season Nylander rather than 60% easy supplements that. I know you’re going to jab at losing Matthews for X games as well but let’s not pretend we should bank on him losing some time again.

After Marleau is gone this is not a particularly challenging off season.

Leafs cap availability is pretty funny.

 

[realgoodleafs]

Zaistev plays like a #5-6 D-man, Marleau was still a good 3rd/4th liner.

BOTH were Overapaid, but Marleau had only a year left

Zaitsev has 5 more years at @ cap hit of a #3-4, when playing like a #5-6D

NO GM is going to tak that contract whitout at least a 1st round pick (or something worth a 1st round pick) coming back.

Saying Zaitsev is still a NHL player is like saying Brandon Manning is still a NHL playr. Obviously yes, but doesn't change the fact they stink for the price they're getting paid at

UFA #3-4 would get paid 7 million.

 

[IslesNorway]

Moving Zaitsev will be considerably harder and more expensive than Marleau, just saying. And remember the Leafs cannot take on any salary in any deal. This will be great fun to watch unfold

 

[hullsy47]

3.4 x 4 would be a pretty sweet deal for Johnsson.

steal for dubas

 

[Cynick]

The expected Kapenen and Johnsson deals are everything the Leafs could hope for. Fantastic deals given their cap situation.

 

[Pi]

Moving Zaitsev will be considerably harder and more expensive than Marleau, just saying. And remember the Leafs cannot take on any salary in any deal. This will be great fun to watch unfold

No it won't lol. People want Zaitsev. He's not a cap dump. When the teams who fail to sign Tyler Myers to a dumb long term contract, they will look towards Zaitsev.

The reason why Marleau was tough to trade is because he had an NMC, he's old and he's basically a fourth liner now and he wants to only play in Toronto or SJ.

 

[GrumpyKelly]

Frankie Vatrano signed for 2.5 million with similar production. So I don't see this being that great.

 

[xNogaitx]

So after I educated you on the cap situation, let’s revisit your lulz:

Oh right, I feel so "educated" now that you pointed out the single tweak that was required to a simple calculation.

You're like that guy at a cornerstop wondering if he should turn left or right to get to the destination and who has a huge sign right in front of him telling him to "turn right to reach X" and that still turns left.

You can keep on living in a desilutional world all you want, the fact remains, Toronto will have to shed players - plural - to resign their roster, which was already borderline playoff last year, and will further dilute the NHL quality of its group.

If you can't see how it will be harder for them to compete moving forward, then maybe a new pair of glasses would do you well.

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

Oh right, I feel so "educated" now that you pointed out the single tweak that was required to a simple calculation.

You're like that guy at a cornerstop wondering if he should turn left or right to get to the destination and who has a huge sign right in front of him telling him to "turn right to reach X" and that still turns left.

You can keep on living in a desilutional world all you want, the fact remains, Toronto will have to shed players - plural - to resign their roster, which was already borderline playoff last year, and will further dilute the NHL quality of its group.

If you can't see how it will be harder for them to compete moving forward, then maybe a new pair of glasses would do you well.

Many teams need to adjust their roster every year. This isn’t special or even remotely interesting now that Marleau is gone.

 

[Mersss]

UFA #3-4 would get paid 7 million.

Lol wut?

Who?

 

[realgoodleafs]

Lol wut?

Who?

Gardiner and Myers are supposedly looking at 7x7. Shattenkirk got 6.65m. A bottom pair guy in Alzner got 4.625m. I'm sure there are others.