Sidney the Kidney
One last time
- Jun 29, 2009
- 55,874
- 47,110
Rangers only scored 14 more goals than the Islanders last season, despite the Islanders having an abysmal PP and starting off the year with Capuano choking the life out of the offense. A full year under Weight, and with Eberle to give JT a scoring option on the left boards during the PP, not to mention the Rangers losing their #1 forward, and I could see the Islanders outscoring the Rangers next season. Rangers still have better goaltending and a true #1 Dman though, so they could still end up ahead of the Isles. But I don't see them as being the de facto better team.
My larger point with regards to the Rangers' offense is that every season people question their offense because they don't have that one big elite scorer, but every year they then proceed to finish top 10 in offense and show offense isn't an issue for them. So even if their offense does stumble a bit this year, IMO, it will still be good enough that it's not a "weakness" of theirs to drop them down the standings.
Their defense, by contrast, improved. They were better than the Isles last season with an anchor like Girardi on the team, so it stands to reason that their defense (and offense) will be improved with a guy like Shattenkirk getting those minutes instead.
Columbus also needs to show they're for real as a top team. After their win streak ended, they really came back to earth with 24-22-5 record, which is hardly a top team's record (is a pace for 85 points). Panarin is an upgrade in some ways over Saad, but Saad has such a great all around game that I don't see this move improving them notably.
The thing Columbus has going for them is they've got a really good top four on defense, with two guys who look like they could one day be in the conversation for the Norris (Jones and Werenski), and another guy who is incredibly underrated as a shutdown guy (Savard). IMO, their defense corps is superior to the Isles'. Add in a two-time Vezina winner in nets and their back end has the clear edge over the Isles.
Up front, they're sort of similar to the Rangers. They don't have that one stud offensive force, but they've got a tremendous amount of depth. Tavares is better than any one forward they have, but after that I'd probably take 3 or 4 of Columbus' forwards ahead of the next Islanders forward.
Washington and Pittsburgh are the only teams I see as being definitively better, with the Isles being roughly on the same tier as Columbus and the Rangers.
As surprising as it might seem, I don't see that big of a separation between the Caps and Pens, and the Jackets and Rangers. At least in the regular season. Where I think the Pens have the edge over those teams is their high end guys can take them farther in the playoffs when everyone plays a more tighter checking game, and scoring is at a premium and you need gamebreakers to win you games.
I also don't think the Islanders had any player outscore their normal pace, everyone produced about on par with what they normally would or less than that. I'm very skeptical of the hot and cold Grabner putting up as many goals for the Rangers next season.
Eh ... I don't know about that, PK. Anders Lee scored 34 goals and 52 points last year. His career high before that was 25. His career high in points was only 41. That's an increase of 9 goals and 11 points over his career bests. Bailey also shattered his career high in points, and Nick Leddy set a career high in both goals and points.
Could they reach those totals again? Maybe. But I think they "overachieved" just as much as any of the Rangers forwards did. If anything, some of the Rangers forwards who were expected to produce more (Nash, Zibanejad) under-performed.