Speculation: Jets upcoming cap crunch

[StreetHawk]

Looking through the thread I’m starting to really understand that the jets are in a great position.

I still think Dubas should have traded Nylander. They have more than enough firepower and needed other help.

That’s still an option. Not like he has a ntc that is active for the next few seasons.

 

[Conspiracy Theorist]

Here is a sample Jets 2019-2020 roster (as worked out by another poster). Can tweak 'er a bit either way, but it's not a bad guess.

Yup, that's how I have it.

 

[Conspiracy Theorist]

If Laine wins the Rocket this year there is no way hes only getting 9.5 . But i really hope he gets 9.5, means Marner can't make more than that

Marner is better than Laine according to Leaf fans.

 

[Machinehead]

Trade a perennial Rocket Richard favorite because his CF Rel is a little too low...that has disaster written all over it.

Players making what he will make should drive play. f***ing sue me.

 

[Machinehead]

What could the Jets get back that would even be worth their while? I can't even imagine

A good top 6 forward, a good top 4 D, multiple firsts/prospects.

He would get a Lindros return.

 

[Clammer]

No I didn’t realize/understand that.

So it’s front loaded but whoever they trade him to still has the cap hit? I don’t get it sorry

Well after July 1. He basically has a real dollars contract of 5x5. So will have big trade value. Having him in the lineup for the run this year at the minimum is much better than trading him for peanuts or him sitting out the year. So dubas did what was best for the leafs this year. And thy will have options in the future. They could always trade him for futures if they don't want a cap hit. Or thy can use him to shore up the defense. And teams like Carolina (who has a surplus of right dmen) care about things like how much real money players get paid.

 

[Finnflash]

Well after July 1. He basically has a real dollars contract of 5x5. So will have big trade value. Having him in the lineup for the run this year at the minimum is much better than trading him for peanuts or him sitting out the year. So dubas did what was best for the leafs this year. And thy will have options in the future. They could always trade him for futures if they don't want a cap hit. Or thy can use him to shore up the defense. And teams like Carolina (who has a surplus of right dmen) care about things like how much real money players get paid.

Got it

 

[Machinehead]

Even with 3 assists? Laine is a remarkable player, but guys who make 10M need to be driving the bus.

This is the point I'm making.

The Jets have a Ferrari roster. Laine is a hell of a paint job but he sure isn't the engine.

And I think $10M is a low estimate for him. He's going to get paid like a generational player. He's not.

 

[Jets]

Cap bumps to 82.5M.

Trade Perreault to the Habs for a nothing prospect.
Trade Kulikov and a 2nd to Detroit for a 7th.

Sign Laine $9.5M x 8 years
Connor $7.5M x7 years
Trouba $7.5M x 5 years
Chiarot $1.5M x 2 years
Myers $3M x 3 years
Copp $1.75M x 3 years
Tanev $1.25M x 1 year
Brossoit $900k x 1 year

 

[Clammer]

This is the point I'm making.

The Jets have a Ferrari roster. Laine is a hell of a paint job but he sure isn't the engine.

And I think $10M is a low estimate for him. He's going to get paid like a generational player. He's not.

I'm mean there are two laine's. One that had 5 points in 14 games to start the season. And one that has 19 points in 12 games. You won't see mcdavid coming through such a terrible stretch. But if he wins the rocket he's definitely getting over 10 mil

 

[Machinehead]

I'm mean there are two laine's. One that had 5 points in 14 games to start the season. And one that has 19 points in 12 games. You won't see mcdavid coming through such a terrible stretch. But if he wins the rocket he's definitely getting over 10 mil

The thing about McDavid (and other great players) is that they can not score and still influence the game in a great way. Bergeron, Crosby, Barkov, and Wheeler on the Jets are good examples.

If Laine has a game where doesn't score a goal, what exactly does he do in that game?

Even if he scores 60 goals, that's a whole lot of useless for a player with the kind of AAV he'll have.

 

[Dache]

He is one of the top scorers on the team. Don't see many flaws in his game. He could easily command that.

Easily? Not so sure. I think he’s comparable to Ehlers, Nylander etc.

 

[lifelonghockeyfan]

He'll re-sign before the draft or be traded then.

Or if Jets feel they need him for a Cup run in 2019/20, they keep him. Doesn't really matter if he walks in 2020, if he makes your teams stronger next year.

 

[lifelonghockeyfan]

Looking through the thread I’m starting to really understand that the jets are in a great position.

I still think Dubas should have traded Nylander. They have more than enough firepower and needed other help.

But Dubas could not have traded Dubas for good value without a contract in place. So now Nylander is very tradable. Leafs are OK with cap this season. But next summer after Nylander's bonus is paid July 1, he is much more desirable for teams in a trade.
I think Nylander is traded next summer for some cap space and as you suggest help elsewhere.

 

[Warden of the North]

Losing Myers would improve the Jets at this point. He is a liability every time he is on the ice and a net negative. Losing Trouba would hurt.

So what is Myers trade value then?

 

[Namikaze Minato]

Marner is better than Laine according to Leaf fans.

Laine is better than Marner according to Jets fans. Both will get substantial raises this season, hence these threads. Just because one fan base thinks player A is better than player B does not mean that one of those players is bad.

 

[Uncle Scrooge]

I think we're fine getting all the key guys signed. Defense is just going to have less depth.

I still think Laine's cap hit will surprise a lot of people. Based on how much i know he wants to win, how Finns usually don't push for the max dollars (culture thing i guess), how Chevy operates with RFA's and how much Laine still has to work on besides goalscoring, i think all these things add up to lower cap hit than people think. I just can't see 10M.

In any case Myers is gone and i'd imagine they'll find a way to get rid of Perreault and Kulikov replacing all these 3 guys with younger players from within.

Forwards
Wheeler - 8.25M
Scheifele - 6.125M
Ehlers - 6.0M
Little - 5.291.666M
Lowry - 2.916.666M
Vesalainen - 0.925M
Roslovic - 0.894.166M
Appleton - 0.741.667M
Laine - RFA
Connor - RFA
Copp - RFA
Tanev - UFA
Lemieux - RFA

Defensemen
Byfuglien - 7.6M
Morrissey - 3.15M
Stanley - 0.863.333M
Niku - 0.775M
Trouba - RFA
Morrow - RFA
Chiarot - UFA

Goalies
Hellebuyck - 6.166.666M
Brossoit - RFA

No retained salary or buyouts as of now

So with the players i have signed here, i have ~49.7M. If the cap goes up to 83M, we're talking 33M and change to sign the rest.

Let's say signing Copp, Tanev, Lemieux, Morrow, Brossoit and Chiarot (or whoever they bring in via FA to fill the roster to play depth roles if they choose to let some of these guys walk) brings us down from 33.3M to 25M.

That's 25M to sign Laine, Connor and Trouba.

So yeah i think it'll be extremely tight but it could be just about enough. It has to be because besides Perreault and Kulikov there's really no players you'd want to trade just to create more cap space. I think the management will push hard in negotiations since there's not much they can do with trades.

 

[Conspiracy Theorist]

I think we're fine getting all the key guys signed. Defense is just going to have less depth.

I still think Laine's cap hit will surprise a lot of people. Based on how much i know he wants to win, how Finns usually don't push for the max dollars (culture thing i guess), how Chevy operates with RFA's and how much Laine still has to work on besides goalscoring, i think all these things add up to lower cap hit than people think. I just can't see 10M.

In any case Myers is gone and i'd imagine they'll find a way to get rid of Perreault and Kulikov replacing all these 3 guys with younger players from within.

Forwards
Wheeler - 8.25M
Scheifele - 6.125M
Ehlers - 6.0M
Little - 5.291.666M
Lowry - 2.916.666M
Vesalainen - 0.925M
Roslovic - 0.894.166M
Appleton - 0.741.667M
Laine - RFA
Connor - RFA
Copp - RFA
Tanev - UFA
Lemieux - RFA

Defensemen
Byfuglien - 7.6M
Morrissey - 3.15M
Stanley - 0.863.333M
Niku - 0.775M
Trouba - RFA
Morrow - RFA
Chiarot - UFA

Goalies
Hellebuyck - 6.166.666M
Brossoit - RFA

No retained salary or buyouts as of now

So with the players i have signed here, i have ~49.7M. If the cap goes up to 82M, we're talking 32M and change to sign the rest.

Let's say signing Copp, Tanev, Lemieux, Morrow, Brossoit and Chiarot (or whoever they bring in via FA to fill the roster to play depth roles if they choose to let some of these guys walk) brings us down from 32.3M to 24M.

That's 24M to sign Laine, Connor and Trouba.

It could be just about enough to get it done. I think Trouba is going to be the hardest one. With 82M cap i'd give him 8M, Connor gets 7M and that leaves us with 9M for Laine which i think he'll take.

So yeah i think it'll be extremely tight but it could be just about enough. It has to be because besides Perreault and Kulikov there's really no players you'd want to trade just to create more cap space. I think the management will push hard in negotiations since there's not much they can do with trades.

If the cap doesn't go up for some reason though.. then yeah we're ****ed.

At worst case scenario I'd have Connor bridged.

 

[Hunter368]

So what is Myers trade value then?

I think most Jets fans would be happy with pick(s).

 

[tbcwpg]

Makes sense.

Would he be able to play 3C minutes and maybe 2C minutes on a weaker team? Maybe similar to what Bozak was doing with the Leafs when they were a weaker team?

I'm not sure. He hasn't played C in a long time. I don't think a team would trade for him to put him at C.

 

[thunder16]

Marner is better than Laine according to Leaf fans.

And none of us are lying or dreaming because he is the better player. I'm sure you have never watched Marner play because if you did it would hit you like a ton of bricks that Marner is actually the better player!

 

[Conspiracy Theorist]

And none of us are lying or dreaming because he is the better player. I'm sure you have never watched Marner play because if you did it would hit you like a ton of bricks that Marner is actually the better player!

That is why I hope Marner gets paid north of 10 million.

 

[GoJetsGo55]

Here is a sample Jets 2019-2020 roster (as worked out by another poster). Can tweak 'er a bit either way, but it's not a bad guess.

HF: The Jets are in a lot of trouble and won't be able to keep their talent

Slayer: Makes it work

HF:

 

[Toews2Bickell]

Why do people look at committed dollars and figure the remaining cap is all they will have to re-sign players in future. Rosters are not static and they can move people out to free up cap. Its such a lazy exercise to say well they have 56 on books and 23 in space so they’re screwed. Thats not how things work.

 

[thunder16]

That is why I hope Marner gets paid north of 10 million.

He deserves it!