Speculation: Jets upcoming cap crunch

[TS Quint]

Connor will have the Nylander contract as the most recent comparable, however it looks like his numbers will definitely be better than Nylander's.
He will have scored more goals, 31 to 20, and about the same point pace in his second ELC than Nylander and is currently on almost a point per game pace for his third ELC year but you think that there is "little chance" he will command $7.5 million/year which would only be a slight increase on Nylander's deal?

Dubas boned the Jets with that contract for sure.

 

[TS Quint]

Nylander is better than Connor though.

As long as he has Matthews to drag him around the ice. We saw Matthews drag Kappenen to Nylander’s Numbers. Connor plays well with or without Scheifele.

 

[robertocarlos]

Just like Toronto. Keep your best players. Get rid of the rest at any cost. Hire young guns who get paid very little for 3 years.

 

[TS Quint]

Just like Toronto. Keep your best players. Get rid of the rest at any cost. Hire young guns who get paid very little for 3 years.

Yep. So many bad contracts handed out to 3rd liners on Cup winners. It’s a killer every time.

 

[robertocarlos]

AM at 12, and Marner at 10. Ya, I'm sure Laine will take 8 as rent in Winnipeg is cheaper than Toronto.

 

[GoJetsGo55]

Oh come on. Laine for 9.5 is a MASSIVE discount. His goal scoring rate on his ELC is basically unheard of. He has been compared to Matthews his entire career and Matthews is supposed to be getting 14 or 15M according to many on here, which means Laine as a floor is looking at 12-13.

Connor is getting more than 7. Nylander got a hair under 7 and signed a year earlier (so cap inflation) plus it was heavily front loaded.

No consider Connor has better scoring rates than Nylander and 7.5 is a good deal for him.

That's just the start

It's weird to see the compliments to players coming in now that it's contract time lol.

 

[Bounces R Way]

Connor will have the Nylander contract as the most recent comparable, however it looks like his numbers will definitely be better than Nylander's.
He will have scored more goals, 31 to 20, and about the same point pace in his second ELC than Nylander and is currently on almost a point per game pace for his third ELC year but you think that there is "little chance" he will command $7.5 million/year which would only be a slight increase on Nylander's deal?

He has scored 86 points in the NHL up to this point. The only way he gets 7.5 a year is if he gets max term, and there's also "little chance" of that. Nylander had back to back 61 point seasons when he signed his deal. If Connor breaks 30G again and 60P for the first time then he might come in around 7 but I still doubt it. Chevy seems to do well with RFA deals, just because Dubas caved doesn't mean the whole league needs to over pay their young players.

 

[robertocarlos]

If they pay Laine 12-13 I'll burn that God damn arena down. Then we can build a nice new one with 24k seats for 1.1 billion dollars out by the football stadium.

 

[Kamiccolo]

It's weird to see the compliments to players coming in now that it's contract time lol.

I think it's rather there were questions that are being solved. Look, Connor is putting up numbers a few years in a row. He's not just a AHL call up on a good start anymore. Opinions change as sample sizes grow.

And I am still not a Laine fan. I dislike how he plays the game but he also is a goal scoring machine and in the NHL if you score you get paid. Personally I'd rather trade Laine than pay him more than 8M as of now unless his skillset becomes more diverse. Reasoning is his goals are worth that money but he is dependent on others to create the chances for him.

Absolute nuke on the PP and when he gets some elite guys to make him some space one of the best in the game, but his salary means those players are less and less and I would never want to commit big salary to someone who relies on teammates to produce.

 

[DANTHEMAN1967]

He has scored 86 points in the NHL up to this point. The only way he gets 7.5 a year is if he gets max term, and there's also "little chance" of that. Nylander had back to back 61 point seasons when he signed his deal. If Connor breaks 30G again and 60P for the first time then he might come in around 7 but I still doubt it. Chevy seems to do well with RFA deals, just because Dubas caved doesn't mean the whole league needs to over pay their young players.

He was on a 61 point pace (he got 57) just missed a few games and looks good to finish above 70 this year.
Good luck getting him for less than $7 million AAV over 6 years, Chevy definitely has his work cut out for him.

 

[Snowman]

It's almost as if different people have different opinions!

But, if you have an opinion that is different from a Leafs fans' opinion, you're automatically a Leaf hater.

And they will definitely whine about it.

 

[DANTHEMAN1967]

View attachment 161303 View attachment 161305 Cap bumps to 82.5M.

Trade Perreault to the Habs for a nothing prospect.
Trade Kulikov and a 2nd to Detroit for a 7th.

Sign Laine $9.5M x 8 years
Connor $7.5M x7 years
Trouba $7.5M x 5 years
Chiarot $1.5M x 2 years
Myers $3M x 3 years
Copp $1.75M x 3 years
Tanev $1.25M x 1 year
Brossoit $900k x 1 year

Why would Myers sign to play for just above half what he earned this year as an RFA?
He would be looking for and will get at least $5.5 million again, probably more.

 

[Conspiracy Theorist]

It's weird to see the compliments to players coming in now that it's contract time lol.

Yeah, Laine should be making 12 million even though the only thing he has is shot, but still not the best.

 

[Hunter368]

Is one type of player who leans towards a goal scorer more/less/equally dependant on others then a guy who is primarily a assist guy?

IMO they are equally dependant on others. Without the trigger man the assist guy isn’t doing anything......they are dependant on each other. Perfect world you have 12 guys who can equally do it all.....reality is that rarely happens at a high level.

 

[StreetHawk]

He was on a 61 point pace (he got 57) just missed a few games and looks good to finish above 70 this year.
Good luck getting him for less than $7 million AAV over 6 years, Chevy definitely has his work cut out for him.

People keep thinking that you are rewarding the player for what he has done in the past. That’s not the way it’s trending now with 2nd contracts. You’re paying them for what they should perform at over the term of the next 6-8 years.

What they do on elc sets your comfort level about what they can achieve going forward. If Connor scores 30 goals again then you have a 30 goal man. Now it’s prjoecting what he can do throughout his mid 20’s. Will he be just 30 or can he hit 40? What is realistic going forward.

Otherwise you’re just using the same logic that GMs used when they handed out $6 million per to Eriksson, Ladd, Backes etc. Paying them for what they have done not what they will do on the contract you are paying them for.

 

[Weezeric]

I think it's rather there were questions that are being solved. Look, Connor is putting up numbers a few years in a row. He's not just a AHL call up on a good start anymore. Opinions change as sample sizes grow.

And I am still not a Laine fan. I dislike how he plays the game but he also is a goal scoring machine and in the NHL if you score you get paid. Personally I'd rather trade Laine than pay him more than 8M as of now unless his skillset becomes more diverse. Reasoning is his goals are worth that money but he is dependent on others to create the chances for him.

Absolute nuke on the PP and when he gets some elite guys to make him some space one of the best in the game, but his salary means those players are less and less and I would never want to commit big salary to someone who relies on teammates to produce.

Did you just call Bryan little elite?

 

[Rabid Ranger]

He has scored 86 points in the NHL up to this point. The only way he gets 7.5 a year is if he gets max term, and there's also "little chance" of that. Nylander had back to back 61 point seasons when he signed his deal. If Connor breaks 30G again and 60P for the first time then he might come in around 7 but I still doubt it. Chevy seems to do well with RFA deals, just because Dubas caved doesn't mean the whole league needs to over pay their young players.

You think the Leafs "caved" on the Nylander deal?

 

[kittiecarlyle]

Nylander is better than Connor though.

Because you like Nylander more? He isn't from what they both have shown to date.

 

[DANTHEMAN1967]

People keep thinking that you are rewarding the player for what he has done in the past. That’s not the way it’s trending now with 2nd contracts. You’re paying them for what they should perform at over the term of the next 6-8 years.

What they do on elc sets your comfort level about what they can achieve going forward. If Connor scores 30 goals again then you have a 30 goal man. Now it’s prjoecting what he can do throughout his mid 20’s. Will he be just 30 or can he hit 40? What is realistic going forward.

Otherwise you’re just using the same logic that GMs used when they handed out $6 million per to Eriksson, Ladd, Backes etc. Paying them for what they have done not what they will do on the contract you are paying them for.

That's true for UFAs but for RFAs you get to see what they are now and where they are trending and then pay for what you think they are capable of and rewarding them for what you think they will do. Valuation is still based on comparables.

 

[StreetHawk]

That's true for UFAs but for RFAs you get to see what they are now and where they are trending and then pay for what you think they are capable of and rewarding them for what you think they will do. Valuation is still based on comparables.

Comparables have to be recent as well. This 2019 rfa class is going to blow past what the 2016 class of MacKinnon, Barkov, Scheifele, etc signed for. Mainly cause of their production during their elc compared to their older peers.

 

[Boondock]

I get the feeling this thread and the TB cap crunch thread were a "retaliation" of sorts for the Leafs cap crunch thread, anyway my thoughts on the Jets situation is that it is different than the Leafs situation for a couple different reasons. 1 - The Jets have a few higher priced contracts that they can move in order to get their young guys signed. Little at 5.29 and Perreault at 4.125 could be moved to create space. The Leafs don't really have that unless you include Marleau, but he has a full NMC and a +35 contract so his mobility is limited. 2 - The Jets have a few players in their system that can fill in if a Little or Perreault are moved (Dano, Vesalainen, Harkins, Spacek) most of the young Leafs players are either in the line-up or not quite there yet IMO. The Jets have a lot of depth that can help them cover for any cap move losses.

 

[Bjornar Moxnes]

Because you like Nylander more? He isn't from what they both have shown to date.

Nylander is a much better possession player and better defensively. Nylander is still an effective producer. Matthews is amazing yes, but Nylander also played with Hyman a lot.

 

[Bounces R Way]

You think the Leafs "caved" on the Nylander deal?

Well considering they were reported to want him at 5.5 for a bridge and closer to 6 on a long term deal and that he's making more than guys like MacKinnon, Barkov, Schiefle, Gaudreau, and Pastrnak yeah I do.

 

[DANTHEMAN1967]

Comparables have to be recent as well. This 2019 rfa class is going to blow past what the 2016 class of MacKinnon, Barkov, Scheifele, etc signed for. Mainly cause of their production during their elc compared to their older peers.

Nylander is the most recent comparable and if Connor has better numbers it stands to reason that getting him to sign for less is not too realistic.

 

[StreetHawk]

Nylander is the most recent comparable and if Connor has better numbers it stands to reason that getting him to sign for less is not too realistic.

Agreed. In a hard cap I’m completely of the mindset that you pay your most productive guys regardless of their age. Just means that you have to make hard choices and let guys go if they want longer term than you feel that they can still contribute at.