Speculation: Jets - General Rumour, Trade, Free Agent and Waiver Speculation - Part XXIII

[ps241]

This Statsny thing is interesting. I don't think we will get him, nor do I think Chevy and company will want to overpay and cough up 7 mil for years and years of a 28 year old. Statsny to me, is basically another Bryan Little. Similar numbers, both good 2 way players, I would argue Statsny has a little more skill, but Little has a better overall game, making them fairly equal, Little is also 2 years younger on a bargain contract. It is just funny people are quick to call Little a 2C, but Statsny the missing 1C. I can't believe we are still having the debate on Little being a 1C. He is a solid (not super star) 1C. This is just the whole "new toy thing" Why would you pay Bryan Little 7-7.5 mil for 5+ years. Statsny will be making almost 3 mil more then Little, and by far be our highest paid forward, to be fairly equal to Little, and Wheeler's status. I say leave it and go for a cheaper solid 2B/3A guy. I just think it is silly to pay 7+ million to a 20-25 goal, 50-60 point player. Statsny = Little. Just gets more hype then Little.

Great post!

 

[buggs]

I like Buff and want to keep him, but I'll use him as an example:

If Buff has a similar season this coming year, Would we get less if we traded him with 1 year left on contract, or even at trade deadline of his final year? Or is his trade value pretty much the same as if we traded him now with 2 years remaining? I ask because I remember years when teams gave up crazy amounts for players at the end of their contracts for playoff runs or in hopes to sign them to longer term deals.

All answers hypothetical but...

Likely we'll get less for Buff with one year left and even less at the trade deadline as a rental. One year left on a late 20s, big man who may or may not sign with your team going forward. That, like a trade deadline acquisition, is pretty much a rental as you've no guarantee of retaining your asset.

One year does not make a trend, but this past season's trade deadline seemed to change the rules on value at the trade deadline. Guys were being picked up that in previous years might have generated a 1st and a 3rd round pick instead got a 4th and a 7th, or along those lines. So trade deadline Buff for optimistically, based on the 2014 deadline activity, a 2nd round and a 4th round pick? Or move him now conceivably for the 5th OA pick?

For me it's about selling high when your product is desirable and provides a decent return to the buyer (2 years of locked in performance). Buff had an excellent season, performing well on both D and the wing and was a beast on the PP. He left the season without articles appearing about his weight or fitness. My contention is that his value is as high as it can be for the gentleman and that's the right time to move him. I'm a fan of his, but I think if you can generate potentially a #1, cost controlled centre for that asset, you jump at the opportunity.

 

[veganhunter]

Would love to pick up Stastny and have him Little and Schiefele at centre. It would be nice to be able to roll three lines. That being said I'm sure about 27 teams have inquired and while he certainly gives us a fighting chance in our division in no way are we a sure thing to get a WC spot.

 

[CorgisPer60]

Can tell you Paul Stastny was one player the #nhljets had contact with yesterday as part of interview period. Olli Jokinen's reps too #bn

https://twitter.com/garylawless/status/482485338158694400

 

[Aavco Cup]

The lower the number is the more pressure on teams like Boston, Philly etc.

@DarrenDreger: Cap teams are getting nervous as NHL-NHLPA continue discussions on next years salary cap. Less than $70 mil will be problematic for many.

 

[Jesus Christ Horburn]

https://twitter.com/garylawless/status/482485338158694400

I bet they got Wheeler to call him as well and try to sell him on the team and city (like they did with Antropov and Ponikarovsky).

 

[Howard Chuck]

All answers hypothetical but...

Likely we'll get less for Buff with one year left and even less at the trade deadline as a rental. One year left on a late 20s, big man who may or may not sign with your team going forward. That, like a trade deadline acquisition, is pretty much a rental as you've no guarantee of retaining your asset.

One year does not make a trend, but this past season's trade deadline seemed to change the rules on value at the trade deadline. Guys were being picked up that in previous years might have generated a 1st and a 3rd round pick instead got a 4th and a 7th, or along those lines. So trade deadline Buff for optimistically, based on the 2014 deadline activity, a 2nd round and a 4th round pick? Or move him now conceivably for the 5th OA pick?

For me it's about selling high when your product is desirable and provides a decent return to the buyer (2 years of locked in performance). Buff had an excellent season, performing well on both D and the wing and was a beast on the PP. He left the season without articles appearing about his weight or fitness. My contention is that his value is as high as it can be for the gentleman and that's the right time to move him. I'm a fan of his, but I think if you can generate potentially a #1, cost controlled centre for that asset, you jump at the opportunity.

I agree Buggs. It's tough to trade someone when they are performing well and on a pretty good contract (relatively speaking), but IMO, that's exactly the time to get something in return. I think Buff will be worth considerably less next year and it will be too late to maximize his return. Some assets depreciate, but I think this one will depreciate very fast from here on.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

This Statsny thing is interesting. I don't think we will get him, nor do I think Chevy and company will want to overpay and cough up 7 mil for years and years of a 28 year old. Statsny to me, is basically another Bryan Little. Similar numbers, both good 2 way players, I would argue Statsny has a little more skill, but Little has a better overall game, making them fairly equal, Little is also 2 years younger on a bargain contract. It is just funny people are quick to call Little a 2C, but Statsny the missing 1C. I can't believe we are still having the debate on Little being a 1C. He is a solid (not super star) 1C. This is just the whole "new toy thing" Why would you pay Bryan Little 7-7.5 mil for 5+ years. Statsny will be making almost 3 mil more then Little, and by far be our highest paid forward, to be fairly equal to Little, and Wheeler's status. I say leave it and go for a cheaper solid 2B/3A guy. I just think it is silly to pay 7+ million to a 20-25 goal, 50-60 point player. Statsny = Little. Just gets more hype then Little.

Stastny had big years in'07, '08 & '10 but for the last 2 years Little has outscored him. Still when looking at all of the possibilities that open up Stastny is intriguing. What would be the effect on everyone else's contract demands when time to renegotiate comes along though? You have certainly set the bar higher and you are also creating dissatisfaction among your now underpaid (relatively) players.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I think that is a fair argument. The way I was looking at this yesterday was, if we did get Stastny, it wouldn't be for a contract that anyone considers good "value". We'd likely be paying close to 7, when he really deserves closer to 5.5.

So, is that extra 1.5 over his true worth, OK for the Jets? I think it could be. Picking up a top 6 forward at the cost of no assets going the other way is huge. A big net add to the lineup, and the assets vof the org (another guy that can be flipped down the road).

My only concerns would be obviously if Stastny took a decline (same as all players), but more importantly, how a contract like that affected the Jets down the road. Its a pretty high watermark, and I would hope it didn't affect the re signing of Ladd, and possibly Little and Wheeler down the road.

Stastny may very well get more than 7. 7.5 would not surprise me. Modern day GMs are pretty smart guys but they also tend to be very competitive and auction fever can affect them. There will be enough arguments favouring the acquisition to allow them to convince themselves to make one more bid.

And do you see a team that refuses to buy out Pavs, being a team that would overpay for someone?

And the point about the other players is valid. When teams go to sign players to a contract, its not just the value as compared to the rest of the league they worry about, its the value in their own dressing room. If you overpay for someone, that can skewer all you future signings. It is something to worry about.

It won't just be Ladd, Little, Wheeler extending who will be affected but every negotiation as it comes along will use that contract as a standard.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

All answers hypothetical but...

Likely we'll get less for Buff with one year left and even less at the trade deadline as a rental. One year left on a late 20s, big man who may or may not sign with your team going forward. That, like a trade deadline acquisition, is pretty much a rental as you've no guarantee of retaining your asset.

One year does not make a trend, but this past season's trade deadline seemed to change the rules on value at the trade deadline. Guys were being picked up that in previous years might have generated a 1st and a 3rd round pick instead got a 4th and a 7th, or along those lines. So trade deadline Buff for optimistically, based on the 2014 deadline activity, a 2nd round and a 4th round pick? Or move him now conceivably for the 5th OA pick?

For me it's about selling high when your product is desirable and provides a decent return to the buyer (2 years of locked in performance). Buff had an excellent season, performing well on both D and the wing and was a beast on the PP. He left the season without articles appearing about his weight or fitness. My contention is that his value is as high as it can be for the gentleman and that's the right time to move him. I'm a fan of his, but I think if you can generate potentially a #1, cost controlled centre for that asset, you jump at the opportunity.

I agree Buggs. It's tough to trade someone when they are performing well and on a pretty good contract (relatively speaking), but IMO, that's exactly the time to get something in return. I think Buff will be worth considerably less next year and it will be too late to maximize his return. Some assets depreciate, but I think this one will depreciate very fast from here on.

Even assuming Buff will resign here in 2 years time, when all factors are considered trading Buff now is almost as clear a case as the compliance buy-out of the Goat-Lender. We can be pretty confident that he is worth more now than he will ever be again.

 

[StronGeer]

I bet they got Wheeler to call him as well and try to sell him on the team and city (like they did with Antropov and Ponikarovsky).

Are Stastny and Wheels really that tight though that he would choose where he plays based on where Wheeler is/recommends?

 

[Jesus Christ Horburn]

Are Stastny and Wheels really that tight though that he would choose where he plays based on where Wheeler is/recommends?

They seemed pretty close when they played together in Germany during the lockout.

I'm not sure if they made the decision together or one followed the other or what, but I remember Wheeler tweeting a lot of pics of him and Stastny while they were playing in Germany.

 

[Aavco Cup]

Are Stastny and Wheels really that tight though that he would choose where he plays based on where Wheeler is/recommends?

If he trusts Wheels then his opinion of the organization and the working environment could be a factor (assuming Wheeler has a positive review)

 

[Guerzy]

Tim Campbell ‏@FPTimCampbell 3m

Follow to Thurs circus -- hearing that #NHLFlyers have next to no interest in Evander Kane of the #NHLJets. #bn

Doesn't sound like Philly and Kane are a match.

 

[Aavco Cup]

@FPTimCampbell: Many moving parts today around the #NHL today; #NHLJets hearing some interest in Alex Burmistrov, among others. Remember him? #bn

 

[StronGeer]

@FPTimCampbell: Many moving parts today around the #NHL today; #NHLJets hearing some interest in Alex Burmistrov, among others. Remember him? #bn

Burmi for B. Schenn!

 

[Howard Chuck]

Doesn't sound like Philly and Kane are a match.

Good. Because I think that Kane, Scheif and Wheels ARE a match

 

[Joe Hallenback]

I am guessing draft pick(s) for Burmistrov

 

[Zhamnov10]

I am guessing draft pick(s) for Burmistrov

It would be nice if we could get a 2nd round pick for Burmi but it would be pretty unlikely.

 

[Jesus Christ Horburn]

Burmi for B. Schenn!

IMO, if Burmi played in the NHL this year, these two would have identical value.

 

[Huffer]

@FPTimCampbell: Many moving parts today around the #NHL today; #NHLJets hearing some interest in Alex Burmistrov, among others. Remember him? #bn

Unless the Jets are getting something worthwhile, still don't see why they would move him now.

Sure, someone can reply saying that anything is better than nothing. But in reality, mid round picks and up and extremely unlikely to amount to anything. The Jets can let Burmi play this next year in the KHL, and if he wants to come to the NHL at that point, deal him then. I would guess that Burmi's value next year when he can come over and play, would be worth more than now.

 

[meedle]

Unless the Jets are getting something worthwhile, still don't see why they would move him now.

Sure, someone can reply saying that anything is better than nothing. But in reality, mid round picks and up and extremely unlikely to amount to anything. The Jets can let Burmi play this next year in the KHL, and if he wants to come to the NHL at that point, deal him then. I would guess that Burmi's value next year when he can come over and play, would be worth more than now.

I agree value is higher next year but unfortunately, they need some bodies this season.

 

[Aavco Cup]

@Real_ESPNLeBrun: Teams eagerly awaiting cap number. Said one GM: ``There is going to be some major scrambling if the number if lower than thought.''

@brianlawton9: Interesting dynamic going on right now as some clubs obviously want a higher cap now to mange their issues while others prefer lower.

 

[meedle]

@Real_ESPNLeBrun: Teams eagerly awaiting cap number. Said one GM: ``There is going to be some major scrambling if the number if lower than thought.''

@brianlawton9: Interesting dynamic going on right now as some clubs obviously want a higher cap now to mange their issues while others prefer lower.

I would laugh if it is 68. Would open up the market more for Winnipeg.

 

[Huffer]

I agree value is higher next year but unfortunately, they need some bodies this season.

Other ways to get them than taking a bad deal though.