Speculation: Jets - General Rumour, Trade, Free Agent and Waiver Speculation (Part XVII)

[Grind]

This is so far off its not even funny. Wake up people and see reality. A close comparable to a hypothetical Buff trade was the Brent Burns trade. Brent Burns got the Wild the following:

Setogucci (who had similar production to what Schenn has now and was the same age)

Charlie Coyle (a blue chip prospect who was the first round pick the year before)

1st round pick.

And this is the haul for a soon to be UFA Brent Burns. Buff has put on more points than Burns and has 3 years on his contract including this year. If Chevy lets Buff go for a measley return like Schenn that that will be robbery after what Minny got for a similar player who didn't even have as many years under contract as Buff does.

Buff is being seriously undervalued by several orders of magnitude

I'd love that return for Buff but i don't think it reasonable.

1. I think schenn holds more value then seto did then for 3 reasons.
1. Seto was fairly one dimensional at the time of that trade, he was ok in his own zone but it was all about the points

2. Seto was two years older then Schenn is now (24 not 22).

3. Seto's a winger, not a center and i'm also not sure if he was expected to be much mor then he already was at the time.


2. There was a second round pick in there, from minnesota, who at the time was a pereniall non playoff team, that's not valueless.

3. I know folks are hypothetically saying they'd do it for just B Schenn but we've mostly been discussing the return included L schenn or Matt read. I'd argue either are probably pretty close in value to first round pick. Reads good value and a solid middle sixer. Luke schenn on a bad contract but a every bit an NHL dman and i would still guess he has considerable upside (unless you believe bogo has no upside....)


So yah, it might not be perfect, but i'd consider it.

To me, luke schenn/matt read is probably the equivelent of teh sharks first (that was ...what...pick #25 or so?).

so your left short of recieving a blue chip prospect, but short of shipping out a 2nd round pick. Ok there's a bit of value on the table there, but nothing that i'd lose sleep over personally.

Buff = Burns
22 yearold B Schenn Center > 24 yearold D Setoguchi RW
Luke Schenn/Matt Read = SJS 1st
2nd round (not traded) < Charlie coyle

so essentially we're out the difference between a second round pick and charlie coyle. A decent chunk, but nothing i'm losing sleep over.

 

[Guerzy]

This is so far off its not even funny. Wake up people and see reality. A close comparable to a hypothetical Buff trade was the Brent Burns trade. Brent Burns got the Wild the following:

Setogucci (who had similar production to what Schenn has now and was the same age)

Charlie Coyle (a blue chip prospect who was the first round pick the year before)

1st round pick.

And this is the haul for a soon to be UFA Brent Burns. Buff has put on more points than Burns and has 3 years on his contract including this year. If Chevy lets Buff go for a measley return like Schenn that that will be robbery after what Minny got for a similar player who didn't even have as many years under contract as Buff does.

Buff is being seriously undervalued by several orders of magnitude

Devin Setoguchi, Charlie Coyle, 1st Round pick for Brent Burns + 2nd round pick.

- Setoguchi was coming off of back-to-back seasons of just 36 and 41 points after his big year in 08-09, the flame was flickering on Setoguchi and many were wondering if he was a 20 goal, 40-45 point winger and not the 30 goal, 60 point winger.

- Charlie Coyle was a year removed from his draft, still very young, unproven. And let's remember here, while he was a 1st round pick, he was the 28th selection. By that point in most drafts, you're reaching in terms of true, legitimate 1st round talent. Complete crap shoot and the asset at that point is labeled a "1st round pick" but overrated in terms of true value in my opinion, you might as well label it a 2nd round pick.

- And the 1st round draft pick Minnesota got was destined to be a late one given where SJ had/has finished in the standings in recent time. That 1st round pick ended up being 28th overall, Zack Phillips. Who knows if or what he turns out to be.

That trade was more quantity than quality, in my opinion. Not a great benchmark in my opinion if that's what you want for Dustin Byfuglien. And if you look at what Minnesota has left from that Burns deal, it's Coyle, and they got a 2nd round pick out of us on Setoguchi and the 1st round pick ended up being Zack Phillips. Meh. I will still take Brayden Schenn over that entire package.

Burns, who at the time was the hulking, minute eating, 45-50 point defenseman, just like Buff. And let's remember here to, Brent Burns, like Byfuglien today, was also mentioned as a potential Canadian Olympian for 2010. He ended up with a concussion and missed 29 games and any hopes of the Olympics.

Like I said, give me Brayden Schenn as the main piece in return, or even straight up, and I will be happy because I think in a year or two Schenn will be a stud.


Those pieces Minnesota got tend to look nice at the time of the trade, but when it boils down to the nitty gritty, a lot of the time it ends up as quantity rather than quality.

Give me Brayden Schenn, because I think he's quality. Legit quality.

 

[mondo3]

I'd really rather not ever give up our 1st round pick...I enjoy the draft day's too much for this.
As for trading a d-man, right now Bogo's at a low and Buff's at a high...you know what they say "sell high, buy low".

 

[Huffer]

Devin Setoguchi, Charlie Coyle, 1st Round pick for Brent Burns + 2nd round pick.

...

- Charlie Coyle was a year removed from his draft, still very young, unproven. And let's remember here, while he was a 1st round pick, he was the 28th selection. By that point in most drafts, you're reaching in terms of true, legitimate 1st round talent. Complete crap shoot and the asset at that point is labeled a "1st round pick" but overrated in terms of true value in my opinion, you might as well label it a 2nd round pick.

...

I could be wrong, but I think Coyle was pretty highly thought of at the time of the trade.

 

[Grind]

I could be wrong, but I think Coyle was pretty highly thought of at the time of the trade.

your right huff.

in a previous discussion ia ctually waybackmachined a listing of prospects, i believe he was the #17 prospect in the NHL.

He had a very good post draft season and had rocketed up the charts.

It might be farther back then that, but he was definitly in the top 30 for NHL prospects.

edit: the list is the first list put out in the 11-12 season, so the first list since the trade. He was listed as the 18th overall prospect in the NHL on Hockeys Future.

http://web.archive.org/web/20120525035045/http://www.hockeysfuture.com/prospect-rankings/prospect-rankings-2011-2012/2

 

[Guerzy]

I could be wrong, but I think Coyle was pretty highly thought of at the time of the trade.

Certainly possible, Huffer. He had just finished a year at Boston University.

I think my main point is reaching for this asset or that type of asset, or package, while it can turn out, can also be quite dangerous.

My post wasn't directed at your points Huffer, I see all your views and certainly see your side of the argument. There was another post stating I was "so far off it wasn't even funny" and "If Chevy lets Buff go for a measley return like Schenn that that will be robbery after what Minny got for a similar player who didn't even have as many years under contract as Buff does."

... as I've said I'd do B. Schenn for Byfuglien, straight up. Compare the Burns trade and what Minnesota has to show for it, and compare what I am saying here re; Schenn for Byfuglien straight up.

Just give me quality, I don't care for quantity. I want the legit piece that stands a great chance at being 'the guy' here in Winnipeg. That's Brayden Schenn, in my opinion. He isn't no "measly return" as JetsFan815 claims he would be.

Will we get B. Schenn + 1st + blue chip prospect? No way, in my opinion. So instead of missing out on B. Schenn and opting for a package of quantity like the Burns trade... I say pass. I want the quality, prized piece.

 

[Grind]

Certainly possible, Huffer. He had just finished a year at Boston University.

I think my main point is reaching for this asset or that type of asset, or package, while it can turn out, can also be quite dangerous.

My post wasn't directed at your points Huffer, I see all your views and certainly see your side of the argument. There was another post stating I was "so far off it wasn't even funny" and "If Chevy lets Buff go for a measley return like Schenn that that will be robbery after what Minny got for a similar player who didn't even have as many years under contract as Buff does."

... as I've said I'd do B. Schenn for Byfuglien, straight up. Compare the Burns trade and what Minnesota has to show for it, and compare what I am saying here re; Schenn for Byfuglien straight up.

Just give me quality, I don't care for quantity. I want the legit piece that stands a great chance at being 'the guy' here in Winnipeg. That's Brayden Schenn, in my opinion. He isn't no "measly return" as JetsFan815 claims he would be.

Will we get B. Schenn + 1st + blue chip prospect? No way, in my opinion. So instead of missing out on B. Schenn and opting for a package of quantity like the Burns trade... I say pass. I want the quality, prized piece.

sure would be nice though......

Schenn + Cousins + 1st... i'd do that deal every day.

 

[Guerzy]

sure would be nice though......

Schenn + Cousins + 1st... i'd do that deal every day.

I'd love it if it happens especially if we get a 1st out of it from Philly plus a solid prospect on top of B.Schenn, I just have my doubts... Like I said though, I would be more than happy to be wrong here.

 

[Huffer]

Certainly possible, Huffer. He had just finished a year at Boston University.

I think my main point is reaching for this asset or that type of asset, or package, while it can turn out, can also be quite dangerous.

My post wasn't directed at your points Huffer, I see all your views and certainly see your side of the argument. There was another post stating I was "so far off it wasn't even funny" and "If Chevy lets Buff go for a measley return like Schenn that that will be robbery after what Minny got for a similar player who didn't even have as many years under contract as Buff does."

... as I've said I'd do B. Schenn for Byfuglien, straight up. Compare the Burns trade and what Minnesota has to show for it, and compare what I am saying here re; Schenn for Byfuglien straight up.

Just give me quality, I don't care for quantity. I want the legit piece that stands a great chance at being 'the guy' here in Winnipeg. That's Brayden Schenn, in my opinion. He isn't no "measly return" as JetsFan815 claims he would be.

Will we get B. Schenn + 1st + blue chip prospect? No way, in my opinion. So instead of missing out on B. Schenn and opting for a package of quantity like the Burns trade... I say pass. I want the quality, prized piece.

I hear ya. In a situation where it was L + B Schenn or nothing, than ya, I wouldn't want to lose out on some potential good pieces either.

sure would be nice though......

Schenn + Cousins + 1st... i'd do that deal every day.

For sure. Maybe we don't get that much, I just wanted to float out there, that MAYBE the Jets shouldn't just solely look at the Schenns as a package deal.

 

[truck]

sure would be nice though......

Schenn + Cousins + 1st... i'd do that deal every day.

I know the charges were dropped, but the fact that Cousins was arrested and charged with sexual assault might be enough for TNSE to say "No".

 

[Grind]

I know the charges were dropped, but the fact that Cousins was arrested and charged with sexual assault might be enough for TNSE to say "No".

Oh right.. i forgot he was that guy.


well.... (spins the wheel)....nevermind. the rest of their prospects look like they suck or would be untouchable (morin, whose IMO kind of a weird combo of both/ and laughton)....

 

[Huffer]

Hagg is pretty interesting though no?

Oh right.. i forgot he was that guy.


well.... (spins the wheel)....nevermind. the rest of their prospects look like they suck or would be untouchable (morin, whose IMO kind of a weird combo of both/ and laughton)....

 

[JetsFan815]

A lot of this discussion is looking at Schenn with rose colored glasses. Some of posters here obessession with Schenn is approaching a certain another poster's obsession with Matt Duchene.

All kidding aside, fact is that Schenn has proven very little at the NHL level to warrent even being in a convo in a straight up trade with Buff. Here are Schenn's point totals over the last 2 seasons 18 and 23. I see Schenn as a Tyler Bozak, Brian Little style player, someone who will put up 50-60 points and be a solid 2nd line center. Trading him straight up for Buff (or with Luke thrown in) boggles my mind. Lets think about the offensive production of each player. Most people here will agree that Schenn will put up around 50-60 points this season and in the near future. Well, with Buff you are already guaranteed atleast 50-55 points with potential to go upto ~65 points. I see no offensive upgrade here. That combined with the fact that Buff is gonna put up these points as a Defenseman makes him even more impressive and useful to the team. Brayden Schenn fans here have admitted that in the best case he tops out as 70 point center during his peak years. I don't see how even in his best case that's such a big upgrade over Buff's ~60 points.

I'd love that return for Buff but i don't think it reasonable.

1. I think schenn holds more value then seto did then for 3 reasons.
1. Seto was fairly one dimensional at the time of that trade, he was ok in his own zone but it was all about the points

2. Seto was two years older then Schenn is now (24 not 22).

3. Seto's a winger, not a center and i'm also not sure if he was expected to be much mor then he already was at the time.

I'll give you point 2. But the rest is once again looking at Schenn with rose-colored glasses. Seto had proven a lot more in the NHL at that point that Schenn has by now. He'd already had a 30+ goal season and 30 goal scorers are by no means cheap value in the NHL esp when he was only 2 seasons out of that 30 goal season

3. I know folks are hypothetically saying they'd do it for just B Schenn but we've mostly been discussing the return included L schenn or Matt read. I'd argue either are probably pretty close in value to first round pick. Reads good value and a solid middle sixer. Luke schenn on a bad contract but a every bit an NHL dman and i would still guess he has considerable upside (unless you believe bogo has no upside....)

I don't even consider Luke to be an attractive part of the deal. He looks more like a capdump by the flyers than adding reasonable value trade. B.Schenn with Luke thrown in pretty B.Schenn deal.

And finally I don't understand the Schenn hype compared to what he has delivered on the ice. If people want a young Center there are other young Centers in the league who have a similar production to that of Schenn. Ryan Johansen (and dare I say Alex Burmistrov ) comes to mind off the top of my head and I doubt anyone here would trade Buff for Ryan Johansen(+a DMan like Luke thrown in)

 

[Sweech]

Let's not confuse Bryan Little and Tyler Bozak with one another.

 

[jetkarma*]

Hagg is pretty interesting though no?

Very interesting to me , quite liked what I have seen of him .

 

[JetsFan815]

Devin Setoguchi, Charlie Coyle, 1st Round pick for Brent Burns + 2nd round pick.

- Setoguchi was coming off of back-to-back seasons of just 36 and 41 points after his big year in 08-09, the flame was flickering on Setoguchi and many were wondering if he was a 20 goal, 40-45 point winger and not the 30 goal, 60 point winger.

- Charlie Coyle was a year removed from his draft, still very young, unproven. And let's remember here, while he was a 1st round pick, he was the 28th selection. By that point in most drafts, you're reaching in terms of true, legitimate 1st round talent. Complete crap shoot and the asset at that point is labeled a "1st round pick" but overrated in terms of true value in my opinion, you might as well label it a 2nd round pick.

- And the 1st round draft pick Minnesota got was destined to be a late one given where SJ had/has finished in the standings in recent time. That 1st round pick ended up being 28th overall, Zack Phillips. Who knows if or what he turns out to be.

That trade was more quantity than quality, in my opinion. Not a great benchmark in my opinion if that's what you want for Dustin Byfuglien. And if you look at what Minnesota has left from that Burns deal, it's Coyle, and they got a 2nd round pick out of us on Setoguchi and the 1st round pick ended up being Zack Phillips. Meh. I will still take Brayden Schenn over that entire package.

Burns, who at the time was the hulking, minute eating, 45-50 point defenseman, just like Buff. And let's remember here to, Brent Burns, like Byfuglien today, was also mentioned as a potential Canadian Olympian for 2010. He ended up with a concussion and missed 29 games and any hopes of the Olympics.

Like I said, give me Brayden Schenn as the main piece in return, or even straight up, and I will be happy because I think in a year or two Schenn will be a stud.


Those pieces Minnesota got tend to look nice at the time of the trade, but when it boils down to the nitty gritty, a lot of the time it ends up as quantity rather than quality.

Give me Brayden Schenn, because I think he's quality. Legit quality.

Again you are ignoring Seto's 30 goal season, he had produced more offensively than Schenn has by now. Charlie Coyle by all accounts is going to be a top6 player in the NHL. Players like him are first rounders for a reason. And as for the pick while it looks like it didn't do much for Minny, a different scouting team could have drafted one of Rattie, Jenner, Saad with that pick. Point is a 1st round draft pick no matter how low is never useless.

If we are not getting market value for Buff which is:

A solid roster player + Good Prospect + 1st Round Pick (can be replaced with a set of lower round picks if necessary with Jets maybe throwing in a pick)

Then I'd rather just Buff play here, until someone is willing to pay that price it's not like Buff is a pending UFA and we're in a hurry to move him. Or just try to resign Buff and make sure Buff ends his hockey career as a Winnipeg Jet, nothing wrong with that

My main objection to Buff for B.Schenn/L.Schenn trade is that you are giving up an elite proven player for someone who may or maynot make that jump to being #1 center. Jets take all the risk in this trade. I just can't accept that risk when you're losing a player as talented as dynamic as Buff.

This is why I'm more in favour of Bogo for Schenn trades since in that trade both sides are taking some risk. Bogo and Schenn as similar as they are built a lot on hype and future potential. Flyers take the risk that Bogo may never make that jump to #1-2 Dman but are atleast guaranteed a 3-4 defenceman and the Jets take the risk that B.Schenn never jumps to being a #1C but is most likely going to be atleast a #2C. Jets take slghtly more risk so Philly adds a little bit but it's in the ballpart and a fair trade offer

 

[jetkarma*]

Bogo has a no move clause though , so he would have to agree to any deal .

 

[JetsFan815]

Bogo has a no move clause though , so he would have to agree to any deal .

I've read that NMC only starts next year. He can be freely moved this year

 

[garret9]

Little >> Schenn >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Bozak

Not sure I have enough > between Schenn and Bozak yet...

 

[Jet]

There is allot to like about landing B Schenn. I do have one sizable concern though and that is what if his chemistry with Kane sucks and we are once again trapped with a disfunctional 2nd line? Obviously I am getting away ahead of myself but Kane is just so tough to play with....oh well it is still decent asset Managment and sooner or later Buff is going to need a new deal and he won't be cheap.

I have the solution!! Put Kane on the 3rd AND 4th lines!! He doesn't need teammates to produce. That way, he gets his ice time AND you scare the **** out of the opposition teams. Just tell Fro, Tanger, Peluso and Slates to stand in front of the net and wait for rebounds. (half joking)

 

[jetkarma*]

I've read that NMC only starts next year. He can be freely moved this year

Is that confirmed?

 

[Sixty Minute Man]

This is a fascinating discussion and an exciting rumour. I'm big on B. Schenn myself and although I enjoy watching Buff as a Jet, I think moving him is the best move the Jets can make.

BUT! To stoke the fire, what if the Flyer's are asking about Evander Kane's availability? I'm not very good at making up trade deals, but lets say we started with Buff for the Schenns, then we added Kane. What would Philly add? Could this be a blockbuster deal involving Voracek or Simmonds + 1st round pick?

In any case it would really shake up both teams and both would get quality returns. Not to mention the fact that finding Kane linemates would no longer be our problem.

 

[Aavco Cup]

sure would be nice though......

Schenn + Cousins + 1st... i'd do that deal every day.

Philly is not trading their 2014 1st rd pick unless the acquire another one in a trade. They are hosting the draft and imagine trying to sell tickets to the prime time first round event if the Flyers are not making a pick?

 

[Aavco Cup]

Is that confirmed?

A player needs to have achieved UFA status before he can have a NTC. That's what happened to Carter & Richards in Philly. Holmgren traded them between their 6th & 7th year before their NTC was valid. Bogo's NMC will be in effect July 1 2015, when he would have been a UFA.

 

[ps241]

Philly is not trading their 2014 1st rd pick unless the acquire another one in a trade. They are hosting the draft and imagine trying to sell tickets to the prime time first round event if the Flyers are not making a pick?

And the New Jersey Devils trade their first round pick for Cory Schneider

Ok ok I know they had the pick going into draft day to drive ticket sales which is why they held on until the day of to pull off the deal

I do agree though they would need a 1st back