Speculation: Jets General Rumour, Trade, Free Agent and Waiver Speculation 17-18 Part XVIX

[KingBogo]

roslovic isn't ready to play in nhl this year and playing him on the second line would be cruel to him and wheeler. sgarbossa has a better chance of playing on this team next year then petan . also a couple of healthy scratches are not sending mathias to the press box.

I think you and I are writing pretty much the same thing. Assuming Connor is ready which I think he is. I see it our top 9 is almost written in stone.

C - Scheifele, Little, Lowry
W - Wheeler, Ehlers, Laine, MP, Armia & Connor

The 4th line will be some combination of Matthias-Copp-Dano with Tanev and Sgarbossa as PB guys. Then I'd let the more skilled guys on ELC's (Petan & Roslovic) get top 6 minutes on the Moose and be called up to plug for injuries in the Jets middle 6 as needed.

 

[garret9]

Barf

 

[Saidin]

I want Lowry on our 4th line. Whatever it takes to do that. 3 scoring lines, and a checking/defensive (with Lowry on it) line.

 

[puck stoppa]

I want Lowry on our 4th line. Whatever it takes to do that. 3 scoring lines, and a checking/defensive (with Lowry on it) line.

Am I the only one that thinks Perreault Petan and whoever between Armia/Dano/Copp is a good third line that will score? That leaves Lowry between Matthias and the winger who doesn't stick there on our fourth line.

 

[ffh]

I want Lowry on our 4th line. Whatever it takes to do that. 3 scoring lines, and a checking/defensive (with Lowry on it) line.

By getting Lowry instead of petan on the 3rd line you are getting a scoring line.

 

[surixon]

It's interesting that people don't believe Lowry can be a part of a line that can contribute at a strong level offensively. For the record I think we are putting too much emphasis on a the term third scoring line. What I want is 4 strong outscoring lines. A third scoring line is useless to me if they get outscored when on the ice.

Id rub something like this:
Connor (offensive driver) Lowry (Faceoffs, defensive rock with physicality) - Dano (good play finisher with some defense)

Copp (Physical defensive player with a plus shot) Petan (Skilled plaumaker) Armia (Strong defensive player and forechecker with untapped offense)

I feel that gives the re two balanced bottom 6 lines that can outscore the opposition.

 

[Weezeric]

It's interesting that people don't believe Lowry can be a part of a line that can contribute at a strong level offensively. For the record I think we are putting too much emphasis on a the term third scoring line. What I want is 4 strong outscoring lines. A third scoring line is useless to me if they get outscored when on the ice.

Id rub something like this:
Connor (offensive driver) Lowry (Faceoffs, defensive rock with physicality) - Dano (good play finisher with some defense)

Copp (Physical defensive player with a plus shot) Petan (Skilled plaumaker) Armia (Strong defensive player and forechecker with untapped offense)

I feel that gives the re two balanced bottom 6 lines that can outscore the opposition.

I like this. IIRC petan-copp-armia played together at the end of the year two seasons ago and looked good.

 

[sipowicz]

So apparently Shane Doan would be a good fit for the Winnipeg Jets!


http://www.espn.com/nhl/story/_/id/...ining-unrestricted-free-agents-where-fit-best

 

[Gm0ney]

So apparently Shane Doan would be a good fit for the Winnipeg Jets!


http://www.espn.com/nhl/story/_/id/...ining-unrestricted-free-agents-where-fit-best

What this team needs is a slow, 40-something, 6-goal-scorer who badmouthed Winnipeg when the Coyotes were rumored to be moving here! Maybe we should sign Bryzgalov to backup Mason, too...

 

[lanky]

Doan didn't bad mouth Winnipeg. Ever.

Bryzgalov did. Belanger did. Doan didn't.

 

[surixon]

Doan can't play any more so no point bringing him in.

 

[nobody important]

So apparently Shane Doan would be a good fit for the Winnipeg Jets!


http://www.espn.com/nhl/story/_/id/...ining-unrestricted-free-agents-where-fit-best

I knew it all along! You all laughed at me and slapped me down in the poll, but now a major sports network is saying the same thing. I feel vindicated.

 

[surixon]

I knew it all along! You all laughed at me and slapped me down in the poll, but now a major sports network is saying the same thing. I feel vindicated.

ESPN is the same network that apparently thought Atlanta moved to Nashville....

 

[garret9]

By getting Lowry instead of petan on the 3rd line you are getting a scoring line.

Neither Lowry nor Petan has scored at evens above average for a fourth line player, but there is definitely more offensive potential in Petan than Lowry.

D+0
Petan (WHL): 1.79 p/gp
Lowry (WHL): 0.68 p/gp (mono)

D+1
Petan (WHL): 1.65 p/gp
Lowry (WHL): 10.3 p/gp

D+2
Petan (WHL): 1.65 p/gp
Lowry (WHL): 1.22 p/gp

D+3
Petan (AHL): 0.68 p/gp, 26 NHL GP with 6 points
Lowry (AHL): 0.52 p/gp, 0 NHL GP

D+4
Petan (NHL): 0.24 p/gp, split between 4th and middle six
Lowry (NHL): 0.29 p/gp, mainstay on 3rd line

 

[Weezeric]

Neither Lowry nor Petan has scored at evens above average for a fourth line player, but there is definitely more offensive potential in Petan than Lowry.

D+0
Petan (WHL): 1.79 p/gp
Lowry (WHL): 0.68 p/gp (mono)

D+1
Petan (WHL): 1.65 p/gp
Lowry (WHL): 10.3 p/gp

D+2
Petan (WHL): 1.65 p/gp
Lowry (WHL): 1.22 p/gp

D+3
Petan (AHL): 0.68 p/gp, 26 NHL GP with 6 points
Lowry (AHL): 0.52 p/gp, 0 NHL GP

D+4
Petan (NHL): 0.24 p/gp, split between 4th and middle six
Lowry (NHL): 0.29 p/gp, mainstay on 3rd line

When he played half of his time with one of the best wingers in the NHL can you really call that middle six usage? Lowry has never played with as good of players as petan.

 

[Evil Little]

Am I the only one that thinks Perreault Petan and whoever between Armia/Dano/Copp is a good third line that will score?

Am I the only one who thinks they'd score more playing the same minutes against 4th line competition?

 

[garret9]

When he played half of his time with one of the best wingers in the NHL can you really call that middle six usage? Lowry has never played with as good of players as petan.

Marco Dano, Kyle Connor, Drew Stafford, Brendan Tanev, and Andrew Copp.
10/19 games in the middle-six were with two of these players as his two major linemates.
17/19 games were with one of these players as his two major linemates.
2/19 games Petan spent with Ehlers and Wheeler.

Lowry spent a great chunk in 2014-15 with Ladd, Perreault, Stempniak, Frolik, and Kane.
EDIT: He did spend some significant time with Halischuk and Thorburn too. Not saying his usage was peachy, but it wasn't like he didn't have major time with players that were producing, some very well.

 

[garret9]

Am I the only one who thinks they'd score more playing the same minutes against 4th line competition?

If you are suggesting we limit Perreault's minutes...

 

[ecolad]

It's interesting that people don't believe Lowry can be a part of a line that can contribute at a strong level offensively. For the record I think we are putting too much emphasis on a the term third scoring line. What I want is 4 strong outscoring lines. A third scoring line is useless to me if they get outscored when on the ice.

Id rub something like this:
Connor (offensive driver) Lowry (Faceoffs, defensive rock with physicality) - Dano (good play finisher with some defense)

Copp (Physical defensive player with a plus shot) Petan (Skilled plaumaker) Armia (Strong defensive player and forechecker with untapped offense)

I feel that gives the re two balanced bottom 6 lines that can outscore the opposition.

I really like that you`re looking in-depth at what each player brings to the table and then making the lines accordingly. Good start that I wish more would follow instead of just throwing up names indiscriminately,

In terms of your analysis, I`d suggest that there may be a problem with your proposed third line... that being that Connor has not shown thus far in his young career, to be a "driver" of the play. All through his NCAA career, he was an elite finisher. And as you imply, neither Lowry nor Dano can drive the play either. I think that this line would perform somewhat poorer than most expect - but I surely hope Maurice at least gives it a trial early this year.

 

[puck stoppa]

If you are suggesting we limit Perreault's minutes...

Exactly, and only reason I gave Connor second line duty over Perreault is I can't see Pmo putting Connor and Petan on same line. But if they go MP second line and Connor with Lowry and Armia you got Matthias Copp Dano. Would they play Petan there at centre? I'm not sure. He needs to move to wing on this club.

 

[garret9]

Marco Dano, Kyle Connor, Drew Stafford, Brendan Tanev, and Andrew Copp.
10/19 games in the middle-six were with two of these players as his two major linemates.
17/19 games were with one of these players as his two major linemates.
2/19 games Petan spent with Ehlers and Wheeler.

Lowry spent a great chunk in 2014-15 with Ladd, Perreault, Stempniak, Frolik, and Kane.

In those 19 games, Petan put up 1 goal, 7 primary assists, and 2 secondary assists. A 0.52 point per game pace.

In the remaining stretch he put up 2 primary assists and 2 secondary assists, with 27 of those games with Thorburn and 12 of those 27 with Tanev in addition.

Petan has played with good linemates, and he's done well as expected, but interestingly they have done even better with him. Petan has also played with weaker linemates, and has been a Thorburn-type black hole there.
Lowry has played with good linemates, and he's done well as expected, but not nearly as well as Petan. Lowry has also played with weaker linemates, and has pulled them up a bit while there.

There is definitely some evidence that Petan could be considered a much better point producer than his point production from last season.

How much better is a bit of guess work by anyone.

 

[Weezeric]

Marco Dano, Kyle Connor, Drew Stafford, Brendan Tanev, and Andrew Copp.
10/19 games in the middle-six were with two of these players as his two major linemates.
17/19 games were with one of these players as his two major linemates.
2/19 games Petan spent with Ehlers and Wheeler.

Lowry spent a great chunk in 2014-15 with Ladd, Perreault, Stempniak, Frolik, and Kane.

Two of his top 3 wingers were thorburn and halischuk. He also put up a 54.5% corsi that year. He even dragged thorburn to a 53.7% when they were together.

Im a petan fan, but excluding when he was with wheeler he only put up 2 5v5 points the whole season. Including lowrys defensive impact there was no reason he should've played above Lowry last year.

I still think a 3a/3b bottom six is the way to go. A defensive line and an offensive one.

 

[garret9]

More fun with numbers:
Petan's linemates score 0.26 5v5 goals more per hour with him than away over his NHL career.
Lowry's linemates score 0.25 5v5 goals fewer per hour with him than away over his NHL career.

At the same age, the 2014-15 season, Lowry's impact on linemates was exactly the same, -0.25 goals per hour, but his goal against prevention was weaker than it is now.

These players are what we thought they were.

Petan has been the better scorer pretty much every level for their first 5 seasons in the Jets organization.
Lowry though has value as being a very good defensive player.

Who is better? I'm not certain. But, I say with a lot of confidence that some people are taking way to much of a surface level look in limiting Petan's upside.

 

[surixon]

I really like that you`re looking in-depth at what each player brings to the table and then making the lines accordingly. Good start that I wish more would follow instead of just throwing up names indiscriminately,

In terms of your analysis, I`d suggest that there may be a problem with your proposed third line... that being that Connor has not shown thus far in his young career, to be a "driver" of the play. All through his NCAA career, he was an elite finisher. And as you imply, neither Lowry nor Dano can drive the play either. I think that this line would perform somewhat poorer than most expect - but I surely hope Maurice at least gives it a trial early this year.

I'm not so sure i agree on your assessment on Connor. I think that may have been true about his play in college but he was absolutely driving the play and offensive results on the Moose in his AHL stint. He was over a ppg and responsible for all the offense while playing on a line with Cormier and Lipon. Go back and watch the last game of the year when he was with Lowry and Armia and he created numerous offensive chances.

 

[ffh]

More fun with numbers:
Petan's linemates score 0.26 5v5 goals more per hour with him than away over his NHL career.
Lowry's linemates score 0.25 5v5 goals fewer per hour with him than away over his NHL career.

At the same age, the 2014-15 season, Lowry's impact on linemates was exactly the same, -0.25 goals per hour, but his goal against prevention was weaker than it is now.

These players are what we thought they were.

Petan has been the better scorer pretty much every level for their first 5 seasons in the Jets organization.
Lowry though has value as being a very good defensive player.

Who is better? I'm not certain. But, I say with a lot of confidence that some people are taking way to much of a surface level look in limiting Petan's upside.

Look petan is playing on the moose next year. There is so many players like petan playing in europe. Small players who lit up the chl and cant transfer that to the nhl. He should go to the moose and start playing like pageau because if he keeps trying to play like gaudreau he will be in europe pretty soon.