Speculation: Jets General Rumour, Trade, Free Agent and Waiver Speculation 17-18 Part XVIX

[Bob E]

I don't mind the term 4th line but it seems like it sparks debate especially if we get Lowry anywhere near it . I think the problem started with GST and then it became a place where PMo actually thought Thor was too good for one season meaning he made our 3rd line a 4th line and our 4th line must have been AHL level? The 4th line has always had Thor on it so it was usually a fighters line and has never really been looked at as a hockey line in Winnipeg or at least that is my take. I think a few seasons from now if PMo can move out of the cave and into the light it won't be swear word but for now it seems to be an insult to many.

I can remember national broadcasts of Jets games where announcers referred to GST as our 4th line. Little did they know Claude was using them as a 3rd line. But 'outsiders' were right. They were a 4th line and a marginal one at that.

It's taken 6 years, but we may have the depth to finally move away from this type of lineup and usage.

 

[csk]

I can remember national broadcasts of Jets games where announcers referred to GST as our 4th line. Little did they know Claude was using them as a 3rd line. But 'outsiders' were right. They were a 4th line and a marginal one at that.

It's taken 6 years, but we may have the depth to finally move away from this type of lineup and usage.

IIRC they were deployed as a 3rd line in our first season and as a 4th line in our second season

 

[puck stoppa]

Tatar signed for 4 years at 5.3 million per year. I know he's younger and plays wing but his numbers are close to Littles. Little would have better numbers if healthy plus he plays centre. So what's the best guess for Little, similar contract cause he's a bit older? Maybe 5.5 million per?

 

[Holden Caulfield]

Tatar signed for 4 years at 5.3 million per year. I know he's younger and plays wing but his numbers are close to Littles. Little would have better numbers if healthy plus he plays centre. So what's the best guess for Little, similar contract cause he's a bit older? Maybe 5.5 million per?

Remember at least one of those years is an RFA year. Little will get at least 6 on his next contract, IMO. For 4-6 years.

 

[puck stoppa]

Remember at least one of those years is an RFA year. Little will get at least 6 on his next contract, IMO. For 4-6 years.

That's right. 6 years, wow. I was thinking they would give him 4 years. He is a consistent goal scorer and very valuable, let's hope he stays healthy. Last year that's where it all went downhill right at the start when he got hurt, he could not be replaced.

 

[Holden Caulfield]

That's right. 6 years, wow. I was thinking they would give him 4 years. He is a consistent goal scorer and very valuable, let's hope he stays healthy. Last year that's where it all went downhill right at the start when he got hurt, he could not be replaced.

Could be 4yx6mil. I could see them agreeing on that deal. I think Little will be in the 6-7 million range for sure. Question will be term and how much he wants to explore the market. That I can't know at all obviously.

 

[scelaton]

Little will be almost 31 when he starts the first season of his next contract. This will be his last big deal and nothing is guaranteed after age 35, so he might prefer length over AAV.
For example, 6 yrs @ $5.5M is a lot more guaranteed money than 4 yrs @ 6.5M

 

[Holden Caulfield]

Little will be almost 31 when he starts the first season of his next contract. This will be his last big deal and nothing is guaranteed after age 35, so he might prefer length over AAV.
For example, 6 yrs @ $5.5M is a lot more guaranteed money than 4 yrs @ 6.5M

Agreed. That's certainly why I am a bit concerned about Little's next contract. It really is his last chance to cash in. I think he will want term over dollar amount, but I think he will still get at least 6 million over his deal. Again the most important factor will be if he wants to stay in Winnipeg or not. He may take a friendly deal of 5y, 30 million dollar deal, or may explore the market. What would he get in open market is hard to gauge. In open market I think will get at least 6x6 to be honest.

 

[10Ducky10]

5 x 5.25m.

 

[Holden Caulfield]

5 x 5.25m.

For Little? That would be a great steal contract. I doubt that happens.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Agreed. That's certainly why I am a bit concerned about Little's next contract. It really is his last chance to cash in. I think he will want term over dollar amount, but I think he will still get at least 6 million over his deal. Again the most important factor will be if he wants to stay in Winnipeg or not. He may take a friendly deal of 5y, 30 million dollar deal, or may explore the market. What would he get in open market is hard to gauge. In open market I think will get at least 6x6 to be honest.

I think you just need to look at the total number. 6yx5M is the same as 5yx6M. I'm not sure what number will be acceptable to both him and the team.

I'd like to see a 4 year term but I don't know if that is possible with the other large contracts looming. Does it make sense to go with a longer term to keep the AAV down? Maybe, but that is quite a risk.

I think you negotiate that number, say it is 30M and then negotiate a term. If you front load the contract and have the trade protection expire after 3 or 4 years the contract is movable if that becomes necessary. Or if you consider that he is likely (hopefully) playing 3C after a few years it is easier to swallow a 3C earning 3.5M than one earning 5M, even if the cap hits are the same.

 

[Whileee]

Any Little contract will overlap with extensions for Laine, Ehlers, Trouba and Morrissey.

Therefore, I think the Jets would need to keep the AAV down, and might give a bit on the length. I'd expect at least 6 years and hope for $5M or so, with some lockout protection.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Any Little contract will overlap with extensions for Laine, Ehlers, Trouba and Morrissey.

Therefore, I think the Jets would need to keep the AAV down, and might give a bit on the length. I'd expect at least 6 years and hope for $5M or so, with some lockout protection.

Yes, I think we have to give him too long in order to keep the AAV down.

We have to hope that he can stay healthier going forward than he has over the last 2-3 years. He has missed 12, 28 and 26 games. You have to hope that has just been a string of bad luck and that he will lose fewer games in the future.

I believe that each of these major injuries takes a cumulative toll on the body. I don't mean in the sense that you are seldom 100% recovered. That is, you are playing with a patched up joint or whatever it was that was injured. I mean in the sense that the whole process of the injury and the surgery traumatizes the body. It becomes a part of the aging process. The result is that frequently injured players will tend to age out faster because of cumulative wear and tear. How many of these will Little take before he loses the ability to play at an NHL level?

Chevy is faced with a tough decision here. He has a quality player who wants to finish his career here but the best option might be to trade him while his value is still high. And yes, I know that we don't have a replacement ready. But if the option is a couple of more injury disruptive seasons followed by having 4 more years of a high cost player who can't keep up any more you have to go with the trade.

I'm not advocating trading Little. I'm just saying that Chevy has to consider all the probable scenarios and make a difficult decision.

 

[Weezeric]

Yes, I think we have to give him too long in order to keep the AAV down.

We have to hope that he can stay healthier going forward than he has over the last 2-3 years. He has missed 12, 28 and 26 games. You have to hope that has just been a string of bad luck and that he will lose fewer games in the future.

I believe that each of these major injuries takes a cumulative toll on the body. I don't mean in the sense that you are seldom 100% recovered. That is, you are playing with a patched up joint or whatever it was that was injured. I mean in the sense that the whole process of the injury and the surgery traumatizes the body. It becomes a part of the aging process. The result is that frequently injured players will tend to age out faster because of cumulative wear and tear. How many of these will Little take before he loses the ability to play at an NHL level?

Chevy is faced with a tough decision here. He has a quality player who wants to finish his career here but the best option might be to trade him while his value is still high. And yes, I know that we don't have a replacement ready. But if the option is a couple of more injury disruptive seasons followed by having 4 more years of a high cost player who can't keep up any more you have to go with the trade.

I'm not advocating trading Little. I'm just saying that Chevy has to consider all the probable scenarios and make a difficult decision.

I think the jets are at the point as a franchise where they can no longer worry about 4 years down the road. Teams always find a way out of cap problems at the end of long contracts. Who knows what the cap will be like, or what the new cba will be. I would rather be in that position with a contending team than never reach that level by always making moves with 5 years from now in mind.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I think the jets are at the point as a franchise where they can no longer worry about 4 years down the road. Teams always find a way out of cap problems at the end of long contracts. Who knows what the cap will be like, or what the new cba will be. I would rather be in that position with a contending team than never reach that level by always making moves with 5 years from now in mind.

I agree but I'm not sure that applies here. You never get to a position where it is acceptable to commit to bad, long term contracts. That is how you close your window prematurely.

I think the situation here is just that it is getting hard to predict what happens next with a player like Little. You could go either way and be either right or wrong. That's what make it such a tough decision. It is a big gamble no matter what Chevy does.

 

[Weezeric]

I agree but I'm not sure that applies here. You never get to a position where it is acceptable to commit to bad, long term contracts. That is how you close your window prematurely.

I think the situation here is just that it is getting hard to predict what happens next with a player like Little. You could go either way and be either right or wrong. That's what make it such a tough decision. It is a big gamble no matter what Chevy does.

Maybe.

I would say the kesler contract is a bad contract. They had just barely enough cap space to sign lindholm, but they got it done. Would they have made it to the conference finals the last few years without him? He's a pretty key part of their team. It may be bad during the last few years, or maybe there is a get out of jail free card with the new CBA and it will be no problem.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Maybe.

I would say the kesler contract is a bad contract. They had just barely enough cap space to sign lindholm, but they got it done. Would they have made it to the conference finals the last few years without him? He's a pretty key part of their team. It may be bad during the last few years, or maybe there is a get out of jail free card with the new CBA and it will be no problem.

I don't even see a maybe there.

I think your point is that you do what you have to do with contracts and then find/make ways to deal with the consequences. If so, I agree - up to a point.

Look at LAK with Richards and Brown, 2 players whose play just deteriorated very quickly at about the age Little is now. They got lucky with the way they were able to worm out of the Richards contract but they are still going to be paying something on it for 7 more years. I don't think you want to aim for their situation.

Like I said before I am not advocating trading Little. I am just pointing out that there is a lot of uncertainty attached to all of the options and the decisions will be difficult. The right way, or the best way to go is not clear and obvious. Your opinion may be that the decision is obvious but that may not be the right decision. Little and Wheeler are both going to cost Chevy some sleep.

 

[mcpw]

Any Little contract will overlap with extensions for Laine, Ehlers, Trouba and Morrissey.

Therefore, I think the Jets would need to keep the AAV down, and might give a bit on the length. I'd expect at least 6 years and hope for $5M or so, with some lockout protection.

Hope is fine, but that's just completely unrealistic.

 

[surixon]

Hope is fine, but that's just completely unrealistic.

If it's over 6 years 5 to 5.5 million doesn't seem that unrealistic as it takes Little until age 37.

With regards to Little it will be interesting to see how he ages through his 30's. If he ages like Mikko Koivu who has been a mis 50 point player through his early to kid 30's it won't be an issue. It will be interesting to see what both sides come to.

 

[Weezeric]

I don't even see a maybe there.

I think your point is that you do what you have to do with contracts and then find/make ways to deal with the consequences. If so, I agree - up to a point.

Look at LAK with Richards and Brown, 2 players whose play just deteriorated very quickly at about the age Little is now. They got lucky with the way they were able to worm out of the Richards contract but they are still going to be paying something on it for 7 more years. I don't think you want to aim for their situation.

Like I said before I am not advocating trading Little. I am just pointing out that there is a lot of uncertainty attached to all of the options and the decisions will be difficult. The right way, or the best way to go is not clear and obvious. Your opinion may be that the decision is obvious but that may not be the right decision. Little and Wheeler are both going to cost Chevy some sleep.

I think we're on the same page here. It's not an easy decision. Bryan little is a great player though. He's not slowing down. If anything last year was the best year of his career. He's scored at a 60 pt pace for the last 4 seasons and is a terrific 2 way player. If you can get him signed for anything that starts with a 5, you do it imo.

 

[Whileee]

Hope is fine, but that's just completely unrealistic.

Probably, but contract values have been moderating somewhat with the flat cap.

The point is that the Jets should probably give extra term to get a lower AAV from Little at this point.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Hope is fine, but that's just completely unrealistic.

5M is definitely low but 6 years is definitely long. The question is, does it take 24-28M, 28-32M or 32-36M? JMO but I think that 30+-2 range is about right. Does 5yx6M sound more reasonable to you? Especially when a player is looking at what is likely his last contract I think the total $$$ is the most important thing. 6x5 will take him to 37 YO. Is Little likely to be a player who is still competitive past 35 years old? 5M will be a bargain for the first couple of years, about right for a couple and way more than he is worth the last couple. Probably.

 

[ps241]

Probably, but contract values have been moderating somewhat with the flat cap.

The point is that the Jets should probably give extra term to get a lower AAV from Little at this point.

Not a bad point then back dive it to make it more portable in the last couple of years. Different than Buff where they went high AAV but low term with movement after 3 years. With BLitts having a lower AAV it makes it more cap friendly in the next 3 years.

 

[mcpw]

Probably, but contract values have been moderating somewhat with the flat cap.

The point is that the Jets should probably give extra term to get a lower AAV from Little at this point.

They should, which should result in the AAV being comparable to Oshie's.

5M is definitely low but 6 years is definitely long. The question is, does it take 24-28M, 28-32M or 32-36M? JMO but I think that 30+-2 range is about right. Does 5yx6M sound more reasonable to you? Especially when a player is looking at what is likely his last contract I think the total $$$ is the most important thing. 6x5 will take him to 37 YO. Is Little likely to be a player who is still competitive past 35 years old? 5M will be a bargain for the first couple of years, about right for a couple and way more than he is worth the last couple. Probably.

6 years is not long in this context. Oshie (46M), Ladd (38.5M), Eriksson (36M), Lucic (42M), Okposo (42M), Dubinsky (35.1M) all got over 35M, none of them signed for less than 6 years. 30M is what was given to a 32yo Backes coming off a 45-point season, on a 5-year contract for ages 32-37 worth 6M AAV. 31yo Radulov came in at 31.25M, on a 5 year contract for ages 31-36 worth 6.25M AAV.

Assuming that he plays a "normal" season, if Little hits the free market, he'll definitely receive offers north of 35M. There is no evidence to suggest otherwise. The market will be there. Henrik Sedin and Joe Thornton will be free agents, and really old ones. Calgary has Backlund expiring, St. Louis has Stastny expiring, Minnesota Koivu. Montreal hasn't found their guy yet. Columbus could use another guy. Nashville is trying Bonino right now. Rangers' situation down the middle isn't clear. I'm sure there's more.

So, if Little doesn't give us a big "hometown" discount, the numbers are pretty clear. A five-year deal under 6.25M AAV just doesn't happen without a discount. On an 8-year deal, the AAV might become as low as 5.25-5.5M. But that also means that he's locked up until the age of 38. That's what the market tells us. We can complain about the facts, we can post "I would sign him 5 years, 5 million" on this board, won't change anything about the market.

5 years, 6.25 - 6.75M AAV
6 years, 5.75 - 6.25M AAV
8 years, 5.25 - 5.75M AAV

These are the interesting contracts. We shouldn't discuss whether they are fair - they are in line with everything we've seen in the past, there are lots of comparables, these offers are market value (or at least close). We can discuss whether it's the right move to offer one of those, and which one.

 

[portamoral]

don't think we can keep both little and wheeler. i'd probably rather keep wheeler since players of his caliber decline slower