Speculation: Jets General Rumour, Trade, Free Agent and Waiver Speculation 17-18 Part XVIX

[Whileee]

Who is this 'everyone' of whom you speak?

My bad. It was a rhetorical flourish in response to further reference to Lowry's 4th line production. I was noting that Dano's primary point production hasn't been much better. At least one prominent statistical analyst in the Twittersphere refers to secondary assists as "noise".

Some have indicated that Dano can be a top 6 performer, though not on this roster.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I guess it depends on what you think the team needs the most right now? Simple approach would be if they need offense you pick Dano and defense you pick Lowry. Personally I would pick Lowry with the added benefit of him being a C.

Edit: overall I think they are close in terms of value.

1 unit of defense is worth precisely the same as 1 unit of offense. It may be harder to see the units of D. But I don't think you can answer the question by choosing between O and D.

 

[garret9]

I guess my point is why compare apples to oranges? One isn't keeping another from the lineup

A better comparison would be Lowry,Copp and Petan and who should be 3rd/4th line centers and why

Copp vs Lowry is a fun argument.

Arguments for Copp:
Copp has been the better point producer.
Copp is better at penalties taken.

Arguments for Lowry:
Lowry promotes xgoals for better.
Lowry prevents xgoals against better.
Lowry better on FOs.
Lowry better on PP, but Copp really hasn't been given much usage there.
Lowry is better at penalties drawn (or really less worse).

Lowry is definitely better at more, but Copp is also younger so he has more room to grow. That and the things that Copp is better at, the gap is larger, than the things Lowry is better at.

Petan is pretty much very theoretical and projection, partially because he is younger and partially because his performance is so black and white depending on his deployment.

 

[DashingDane]

1 unit of defense is worth precisely the same as 1 unit of offense. It may be harder to see the units of D. But I don't think you can answer the question by choosing between O and D.

I completely agree. I was trying to elude to team need I guess. I'm not really worried about the Jets not scoring and creating offense. I am however worried about team defense and PK specifically. So for me it comes down to set players toolset vs what I think the teams greatest needs are. If Dano was a great PKer I would have likely preferred him.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

My bad. It was a rhetorical flourish in response to further reference to Lowry's 4th line production. I was noting that Dano's primary point production hasn't been much better. At least one prominent statistical analyst in the Twittersphere refers to secondary assists as "noise".

Some have indicated that Dano can be a top 6 performer, though not on this roster.

I think far too much is made of deprecating second assists. None of the three scoring points is a perfect '1' in value. Often the goal scorer just taps in a perfect setup, or has it bounce in off his ass. Often it is the second assist that is the crucial move in the scoring sequence.

One day, when every muscle twitch is digitized and analyzed to death we may get definitive ratios of the relative merits of the 3 parts of the scoring play. When that happens we may find that in a large sample size the first assist is the most valuable and 2nd A's are tied with goal scoring. Or not. Until then I will stick to 1 point each (knowing that 'primary points' are worth slightly more than second A's).

 

[Whileee]

I think far too much is made of deprecating second assists. None of the three scoring points is a perfect '1' in value. Often the goal scorer just taps in a perfect setup, or has it bounce in off his ass. Often it is the second assist that is the crucial move in the scoring sequence.

One day, when every muscle twitch is digitized and analyzed to death we may get definitive ratios of the relative merits of the 3 parts of the scoring play. When that happens we may find that in a large sample size the first assist is the most valuable and 2nd A's are tied with goal scoring. Or not. Until then I will stick to 1 point each (knowing that 'primary points' are worth slightly more than second A's).

Well, one observation might be useful... secondary assists are much less repeatable year to year than goals or primary assists, suggesting that talent is less related to secondary assists.

Here's one article. I'm sure there are others.

https://www.broadstreethockey.com/2011/3/15/2046512/simplify-scoring-drop-secondary-assists

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I completely agree. I was trying to elude to team need I guess. I'm not really worried about the Jets not scoring and creating offense. I am however worried about team defense and PK specifically. So for me it comes down to set players toolset vs what I think the teams greatest needs are. If Dano was a great PKer I would have likely preferred him.

If we just say that special teams give Lowry an advantage, like being a C does, I think we are more accurate. He does have value on both ST's. I'm still a little skeptical of his PP production but if he can keep it up I will have to concede that he is a plus on the PP.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Well, one observation might be useful... secondary assists are much less repeatable year to year than goals or primary assists, suggesting that talent is less related to secondary assists.

Here's one article. I'm sure there are others.

https://www.broadstreethockey.com/2011/3/15/2046512/simplify-scoring-drop-secondary-assists

I'm not sure that repeatability is the right way to judge. The first A relies on someone to finish the play. The 2nd A relies on 2 players to finish. I think it is to be expected that they will be less repeatable. If a large enough sample is used the repeatability might disappear as an issue. The sample might need to be extremely large though.

 

[garret9]

Hence why A2s are worth less in OBPM and not worthless. The value given to them is meaningful and purposeful in BPM.

 

[Whileee]

Hence why A2s are worth less in OBPM and not worthless. The value given to them is meaningful and purposeful in BPM.

Is there an article that explains the BPM formula and how it is applied? Has there been extensive testing, and if so, has it been published? The details are scanty in the Hockey-Graphs series.

 

[Joe Hallenback]

Copp vs Lowry is a fun argument.

Arguments for Copp:
Copp has been the better point producer.
Copp is better at penalties taken.

Arguments for Lowry:
Lowry promotes xgoals for better.
Lowry prevents xgoals against better.
Lowry better on FOs.
Lowry better on PP, but Copp really hasn't been given much usage there.
Lowry is better at penalties drawn (or really less worse).

Lowry is definitely better at more, but Copp is also younger so he has more room to grow. That and the things that Copp is better at, the gap is larger, than the things Lowry is better at.

Petan is pretty much very theoretical and projection, partially because he is younger and partially because his performance is so black and white depending on his deployment.

Maybe you can't answer this because of your new job but how would you suggest to the Jets should they run the bottom centers then. Lowry/Copp as 3/4 and Petan in the minors centering one of the top 2 lines to see how his production goes?

 

[Weezeric]

Copp vs Lowry is a fun argument.

Arguments for Copp:
Copp has been the better point producer.
Copp is better at penalties taken.

Arguments for Lowry:
Lowry promotes xgoals for better.
Lowry prevents xgoals against better.
Lowry better on FOs.
Lowry better on PP, but Copp really hasn't been given much usage there.
Lowry is better at penalties drawn (or really less worse).

Lowry is definitely better at more, but Copp is also younger so he has more room to grow. That and the things that Copp is better at, the gap is larger, than the things Lowry is better at.

Petan is pretty much very theoretical and projection, partially because he is younger and partially because his performance is so black and white depending on his deployment.

Wouldn't you think that copps production is propped up by his time with scheifele? 7 points in 156 mins 5v5 with scheifele vs 8 points in 511 mins without.

 

[portamoral]

Maybe you can't answer this because of your new job but how would you suggest to the Jets should they run the bottom centers then. Lowry/Copp as 3/4 and Petan in the minors centering one of the top 2 lines to see how his production goes?

 

[Joe Hallenback]

Thats not really an answer. If hes not centering a line where is Petan going to play then? Wing. Who sits then. No one in the top 6 is going to sit. Connor,Matthais and Dano both are left side wingers although I think Dano can play both. Petan probably needs to play left wing. Armia is in on the Right.

I would rather he play a lot in the minors then sit in the Pressbox. That is why they signed Tanev. The only other option is Connor goes down to start the season for Petan.

I don't like Petan's chances to start the year with the Jets. Even a guy like Scarbossa they brought in seems like more likely press box fodder then Petan

 

[portamoral]

Thats not really an answer. If hes not centering a line where is Petan going to play then? Wing. Who sits then. No one in the top 6 is going to sit. Connor,Matthais and Dano both are left side wingers although I think Dano can play both. Petan probably needs to play left wing. Armia is in on the Right.

I would rather he play a lot in the minors then sit in the Pressbox. That is why they signed Tanev. The only other option is Connor goes down to start the season for Petan.

I don't like Petan's chances to start the year with the Jets. Even a guy like Scarbossa they brought in seems like more likely press box fodder then Petan

lot of ways you can get him into the lineup. i realized we don't need every good player to be in the top6, can always balance the lines throughout

MP-scheif-laine
connor-petan-wheeler
ehlers-little-dano
copp-lowry-armia

something like this. could switch petan to wing also as long as he's playing with someone good

 

[puck stoppa]

Maybe you can't answer this because of your new job but how would you suggest to the Jets should they run the bottom centers then. Lowry/Copp as 3/4 and Petan in the minors centering one of the top 2 lines to see how his production goes?

I think Connor starts with Litts and Wheels. That gives us MP Petan Dano and Matthias Lowry Armia as our bottom six. Copp first man in? I doubt that happens though.

 

[Bob E]

lot of ways you can get him into the lineup. i realized we don't need every good player to be in the top6, can always balance the lines throughout

MP-scheif-laine
connor-petan-wheeler
ehlers-little-dano
copp-lowry-armia

something like this. could switch petan to wing also as long as he's playing with someone good

Petan will not start the season in the 2 hole, with Little in the 3 hole.

Petan has a lot to prove to make the Jets, let alone play in the 2 hole with Wheeler.

My money is on him being moved at some point this season.

 

[portamoral]

Petan will not start the season in the 2 hole, with Little in the 3 hole.

Petan has a lot to prove, to make the Jets let alone play in the 2 hole with Wheeler.

My money is on him being moved at some point this season.

why does it even matter? build 3 strong lines and play play them similarly

petan really doesn't have much to prove. he's already proved that when he plays with good players, he does very well. he's even increased wheeler's numbers when they were together. the line of connor-petan-wheeler was dominate last year.

 

[MyNHLPearlsOfWisdom*]

why does it even matter? build 3 strong lines and play play them similarly

petan really doesn't have much to prove. he's already proved that when he plays with good players, he does very well. he's even increased wheeler's numbers when they were together. the line of connor-petan-wheeler was dominate last year.

I agree , it would be a huge disappointment if Petan didn't make it this year

 

[MyNHLPearlsOfWisdom*]

Did a little something on the Jets actually .Tell me what you think. https://youtu.be/o433d2nRtoE

 

[Weezeric]

why does it even matter? build 3 strong lines and play play them similarly

petan really doesn't have much to prove. he's already proved that when he plays with good players, he does very well. he's even increased wheeler's numbers when they were together. the line of connor-petan-wheeler was dominate last year.

So, you want to take away mins from scheifele to give to petan? Because the 4th line already plays next to nothing.

 

[ffh]

Will petan even be the 2nd line centre on the moose.

 

[portamoral]

So, you want to take away mins from scheifele to give to petan? Because the 4th line already plays next to nothing.

well if petan plays with wheeler you're giving minutes to wheeler too

 

[Weezeric]

well if petan plays with wheeler you're giving minutes to wheeler too

And taking from Laine.....

 

[surixon]

Petan will be in a battle just to make the team. While I wouldn't be opposed to playing him on a sheltered offensive minded third line Maurice isn't going to move him from being a healthy scratch to over Lowry just based on how he performs in camp. If he wants a higher role he will have to beat our someone on camp and then work his way up.