Speculation: Jets General Rumour, Trade, Free Agent and Waiver Speculation 15-16 Part VIII

[Mortimer Snerd]

I was just thinking about this. You're right that as a pure rental, future cap changes (up or down) don't matter at all. The only way I could see a falling cap matter is that if the market suddenly becomes more flooded with rentals this season as teams are forced or more inclined to start shedding some expensive vets.

The other way I could see it having an impact on Ladd's return is if there are teams interested in Ladd as both a rental and a future signing. But the falling cap now looks to prevent that future signing. This won't change Ladd's value as a rental, but it does remove the "added bonus" of potentially signing Ladd for future seasons. Of course I know that signing is not guaranteed anyway. But I'd say the team which picks up Ladd for a cup run probably has a slight leg up over other teams.

Both good points Puck. I think we see a lot of players available in the off-season as teams try to shed cap. GMs will be trying to anticipate even now. That might also increase the value of some of the futures. Some teams may plan on dumping some expensive players and replacing them with their near ready prospects. The teams most likely in cap trouble are the same ones who are usually buyers at the TD, the contenders.

While these kinds of factors might reduce the return we get for Ladd (and any other player we might be inclined to sell) they increase the value of retaining the flexibility of some available cap space. That could also make bridge deals for Scheif and Trouba more likely and smaller at the same time.

Interesting times.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

With the falling cap I don't think there will be many teams looking at him as more than a rental. At this point Ladd is looking for too much term and salary to plan that you will sign him. It will be interesting what the summer brings but the Jets might be positioned well to re-sign him come UFA time. And at a lesser amount than what he would have cost last summer.

Yup. The trade and then re-sign scenario might be more likely than usual.

This has to be affecting Stamkos and any other pending FAs as well.

 

[YWGinYYZ]

Both good points Puck. I think we see a lot of players available in the off-season as teams try to shed cap. GMs will be trying to anticipate even now. That might also increase the value of some of the futures. Some teams may plan on dumping some expensive players and replacing them with their near ready prospects. The teams most likely in cap trouble are the same ones who are usually buyers at the TD, the contenders.

While these kinds of factors might reduce the return we get for Ladd (and any other player we might be inclined to sell) they increase the value of retaining the flexibility of some available cap space. That could also make bridge deals for Scheif and Trouba more likely and smaller at the same time.

Interesting times.

I don't think it'll affect TD moves at all, unless the player has term. Players that are UFA at the end of this year should be fine to move to contenders - they'll be off their books at the end of the year, and their salaries will be pro-rated for this year, and easier to fit under the cap.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I don't think it'll affect TD moves at all, unless the player has term. Players that are UFA at the end of this year should be fine to move to contenders - they'll be off their books at the end of the year, and their salaries will be pro-rated for this year, and easier to fit under the cap.

If the buyers are planning to retain their cost controlled assets to replace cap dumps then they will be less willing to exchange those assets for rentals. A shrinking cap will have ripple effects. GMs will be trying to anticipate those ripples. No one knows exactly what will happen. We have an unstable free market. Anything can happen.

 

[almostawake]

If the buyers are planning to retain their cost controlled assets to replace cap dumps then they will be less willing to exchange those assets for rentals. A shrinking cap will have ripple effects. GMs will be trying to anticipate those ripples. No one knows exactly what will happen. We have an unstable free market. Anything can happen.

Teams that consider themselves legit contenders (Washington, Chicago, St. Louis, LA, etc) all know that they're on the market for a rental and only a rental.

The bump in value the Jets could hope to get from a team thinking of signing Ladd long term is really low. The general, reasonable, bench marks that people have been throwing around for a return on Ladd are the two big deals from last year. Chicago had no intentions of retaining Vermette and LA had none of retaining Sekera.

 

[Guardian17]

Does anyone think Ladd may resign with the Jets on July 1 if he is traded at the trade deadline?

Similar to Keith Tkachuk who St. Louis traded to Atlanta then resigned with the Blues.

 

[Winnipeg Jets]

Does anyone think Ladd may resign with the Jets on July 1 if he is traded at the trade deadline?

Similar to Keith Tkachuk who St. Louis traded to Atlanta then resigned with the Blues.

I doubt it, it doesn't happen very often as it is. It'd be a nice story but I think once he leaves he leaves for good.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Teams that consider themselves legit contenders (Washington, Chicago, St. Louis, LA, etc) all know that they're on the market for a rental and only a rental.

The bump in value the Jets could hope to get from a team thinking of signing Ladd long term is really low. The general, reasonable, bench marks that people have been throwing around for a return on Ladd are the two big deals from last year. Chicago had no intentions of retaining Vermette and LA had none of retaining Sekera.

I think you are misunderstanding my point. I'm only talking rental value. If you are one of those contending teams, I'll just use LAK for example. You now value your cost controlled assets higher than normally. In a more typical year we would trade Ladd for their first and Kempe, just for the sake of discussion. This year LAK know they are going to be in cap trouble so they plan on letting Lucic walk without even trying to retain him. Kempe will replace him on the roster next year for over a 2 mil saving. Therefore Kempe is not available to acquire Ladd. Kempe's value has risen. If this same scenario plays out among all the contending teams the rental market is depressed. If you add to that some additional sellers among non-contenders with big cap hits the market is further depressed.

This is all based on the assumption that GMs are anticipating the cap shrinking. There was an estimate a short time ago of it going up to about 74. That sounds like someone blowing smoke to me but what do I know? FWIW my best guess is that the cap will come in around 69-70 but that is a seat of the pants guess. I thought it would have been about 70 this year instead of 71.4. If Gms are anticipating the cap will be the same to slightly higher next year there will be much less reaction.

 

[YWGinYYZ]

Mort: the point of gathering assets is to win the SC, not to gather assets. If I were a team that felt I was close to winning, then assets be damned - I'll do what I need in order to push myself over the line to win the cup.

Someone will pay for Ladd, if Chevy is going to deal him.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Does anyone think Ladd may resign with the Jets on July 1 if he is traded at the trade deadline?

Similar to Keith Tkachuk who St. Louis traded to Atlanta then resigned with the Blues.

I doubt it, it doesn't happen very often as it is. It'd be a nice story but I think once he leaves he leaves for good.

Normally I would agree with this. Trading then re-signing your player is pretty much a pipe dream. But if the cap stagnates/shrinks UFAs may find the offers are much lower than they hoped. In that case returning to their previous teams might become more likely. Just a possibility I think.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Mort: the point of gathering assets is to win the SC, not to gather assets. If I were a team that felt I was close to winning, then assets be damned - I'll do what I need in order to push myself over the line to win the cup.

Someone will pay for Ladd, if Chevy is going to deal him.

I suspect that is true even under these conditions. At least the top few teams, the real contenders will be inclined to go all in for it. But there is the possibility that the market is somewhat depressed. I don't think we can rule it out. If I am Chevy I definitely dangle Ladd out there and gauge the offers before deciding what to do.

I still like Anaheim for Ladd. They still don't have a proper 1st line LW. They still have the assets that should suit our needs well. Those assets are surplus to their current or short term future needs. And although they can anticipate demands on their cap space they have a lot more flexibility than most contenders.

However I never hear any buzz about them being interested. Maybe they were hoping to get Drouin. Maybe they weren't sure they would be able to contend. Whatever, I hope their interest develops as the TD gets nearer.

 

[KingBogo]

Does anyone think Ladd may resign with the Jets on July 1 if he is traded at the trade deadline?

Similar to Keith Tkachuk who St. Louis traded to Atlanta then resigned with the Blues.

I think it is very possible, and for less than 6 X 6. If the cap actually drops by $3-4 M there will be a lot of downward pressure on salaries. And in a cap depressed world 30 y/o wingers with signs of regression are not at the top of most teams wish list.

 

[Channelcat]

Does anyone think Ladd may resign with the Jets on July 1 if he is traded at the trade deadline?

Similar to Keith Tkachuk who St. Louis traded to Atlanta then resigned with the Blues.

I think it might kill me to watch Ladd gutting it out hardcore for 3 months only to see him back here collecting a paycheck. They really need to sever ties.

 

[BigZ65]

There are a few teams who might go for broke feeling that this is their year, Capitals would be one IMO, but on the whole I think teams are going to be loathe to move young, cheap NHL-worthy assets for the next couple seasons for rentals.

Most teams are building for many good years, not one. Less cap space to work with gives them less opportunity to recover assets lost in trades for rentals. They need more guys on ELCs.

 

[YWGinYYZ]

There are a few teams who might go for broke feeling that this is their year, Capitals would be one IMO, but on the whole I think teams are going to be loathe to move young, cheap NHL-worthy assets for the next couple seasons for rentals.

Most teams are building for many good years, not one. Less cap space to work with gives them less opportunity to recover assets lost in trades for rentals. They need more guys on ELCs.

...and some of them are built to win now, and have a distinct window. There will be a market at the TD, just like every other year. JMO.

 

[truck]

I don't know if I like the notion that Chevy is still working to sign Ladd.

All off-season it was "Ladd firts, then Byfuglien."
They weren't even talking to Byfuglien's people.
Then they were talking to both and hadn't decided what to do with either.
Then Buff signed.
Did his play change their tune?
Is Ladd still an option?
What's the plan here?

The team is bad abd it wasn't planned this way. Does Chevy think this is an aberration and that returning everyone could work? Is there actually going to be a shift towards youth? I still don't know where the plot of this movie is headed.

 

[pucka lucka]

I don't know if I like the notion that Chevy is still working to sign Ladd.

All off-season it was "Ladd firts, then Byfuglien."
They weren't even talking to Byfuglien's people.
Then they were talking to both and hadn't decided what to do with either.
Then Buff signed.
Did his play change their tune?
Is Ladd still an option?
What's the plan here?

The team is bad abd it wasn't planned this way. Does Chevy think this is an aberration and that returning everyone could work? Is there actually going to be a shift towards youth? I still don't know where the plot of this movie is headed.

However it ends up, it was always the plan.

 

[sully1410]

I don't know if I like the notion that Chevy is still working to sign Ladd.

All off-season it was "Ladd firts, then Byfuglien."
They weren't even talking to Byfuglien's people.
Then they were talking to both and hadn't decided what to do with either.
Then Buff signed.
Did his play change their tune?
Is Ladd still an option?
What's the plan here?

The team is bad abd it wasn't planned this way. Does Chevy think this is an aberration and that returning everyone could work? Is there actually going to be a shift towards youth? I still don't know where the plot of this movie is headed.

I don't really buy that they didn't anticipate that this season was going to be a step back. They lost a lot of key players and they were replaced with down grades and I think to imply that the management staff had NO idea that this could happen would be to imply that they are stupid. Which is possible, but given how long some of them have been in the business of hockey...I think it's pretty unlikely.

 

[Bob E]

Not sure I buy into the thought that Jets were thinking they would take a step back.

Losses from last year's playoff team are Frolik, Stempniak, Tlusty and Slater. Who were replaced with Burmistrov, Ehlers, Armia and Copp. I think the Jets thought they would maintain their position while young players gained experience.

Disappointing play from the goalies early on and then Ladd, Burmistrov, Stuart and Lowry. Then, the special team personnel and coaching played a big part in their slide in the standings, Imo.

Positives are Hellebuyck and Ehlers gaining NHL experience. Emergence of Connor is next. Maybe Morrissey, too. Looking forward to 2016 draft.

 

[pucka lucka]

I don't really buy that they didn't anticipate that this season was going to be a step back. They lost a lot of key players and they were replaced with down grades and I think to imply that the management staff had NO idea that this could happen would be to imply that they are stupid. Which is possible, but given how long some of them have been in the business of hockey...I think it's pretty unlikely.

Why was it necessary to take a step back? keep stemp, inject Ehlers, make another couple of small moneypuck moves to take up some Frolik stack, ease in Helle, get Stuart down to 60 press box minutes a night. Oh look, almost the same outlay and similar team. No we go all in on Peluso, Copp, Thor, Ehlers and ****ing Raffl. bizarro.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I don't really buy that they didn't anticipate that this season was going to be a step back. They lost a lot of key players and they were replaced with down grades and I think to imply that the management staff had NO idea that this could happen would be to imply that they are stupid. Which is possible, but given how long some of them have been in the business of hockey...I think it's pretty unlikely.

A step back yes but I don't think they expected to plunge to the bottom of the pool.

 

[truck]

A step back yes but I don't think they expected to plunge to the bottom of the pool.

This.

They were the best possesion team in the league over the 2nd half of last year - a step back wasn't necessarily supposed to land them here.

 

[pateramus]

Not sure I buy into the thought that Jets were thinking they would take a step back.

Losses from last year's playoff team are Frolik, Stempniak, Tlusty and Slater. Who were replaced with Burmistrov, Ehlers, Armia and Copp. I think the Jets thought they would maintain their position while young players gained experience.

Disappointing play from the goalies early on and then Ladd, Burmistrov, Stuart and Lowry. Then, the special team personnel and coaching played a big part in their slide in the standings, Imo.

Positives are Hellebuyck and Ehlers gaining NHL experience. Emergence of Connor is next. Maybe Morrissey, too. Looking forward to 2016 draft.

I think this was their hopes or goal, they still hoped to be competitive and squeak into playoffs this season, But was prepared and knew that a step back may be a big possibility with giving these positions to the kids. They are looking at the long term picture and I still believe that (yes with some mistakes along the way) they still have a good plan and are executing it fairly well.

If all it took for every team was 5 years to be a contender, wouldn't the league be full of contenders? Not an easy road to get there. This year was a minor step back, but that's ok cause the long term goal is still in full effect.

 

[ps241]

A step back yes but I don't think they expected to plunge to the bottom of the pool.

This.

They were the best possesion team in the league over the 2nd half of last year - a step back wasn't necessarily supposed to land them here.

Yea they are too risk averse to fall off the cliff like they have intentionally. Now that it has happened I think Chevy and co will ride it out but free fall was not the plan IMO.

 

[ps241]

Why was it necessary to take a step back? keep stemp, inject Ehlers, make another couple of small moneypuck moves to take up some Frolik stack, ease in Helle, get Stuart down to 60 press box minutes a night. Oh look, almost the same outlay and similar team. No we go all in on Peluso, Copp, Thor, Ehlers and ****ing Raffl. bizarro.

The Raffl one was the strangest, why did we try to get so cute? A one way deal for a 29 year old career Euro league player when we could have other more proven NHL talent (not even going to mention the name) for similar cash? Not like he came into camp and lit it up or anything?