Speculation: Jets General Rumour, Trade, Free Agent and Waiver Speculation 15-16 Part VIII

[Puckatron 3000]

Mort: the point of gathering assets is to win the SC, not to gather assets. If I were a team that felt I was close to winning, then assets be damned - I'll do what I need in order to push myself over the line to win the cup.

Someone will pay for Ladd, if Chevy is going to deal him.

Dunno Gin, I'm kinda buyin' what Mort's selling here. If a team has say a 3 year "win now" window, and Ladd helps more with 1 year as a rental, but the asset may help more with the following 2 years and beyond (cheap talent on ELC under a depressed cap), things start getting muddy. It probably makes it easier t pry picks, and harder to pry near-ready prospects as part of the trade.

Of course, I know almost nothing about the NHL, and just kinda make it up as I go along.

Regarding Raffl - tough to know how things would have worked out if he didn't get injured. It was a weird move, but I was rooting for Raffl to make an impact. Thought he looked at least kinda promising at the beginning of the year.

 

[YWGinYYZ]

Puckatron: what's the ultimate goal of putting yourself in a position of being a contender by gathering the appropriate assets? To stay a contender, or to win? You may not want to be a one and done team, but if you think it's your time, do you pass up the opportunity to latch onto someone like Ladd for that final push?

Someone will "pay" for him, IMO.

 

[supersonic jet]

Puckatron: what's the ultimate goal of putting yourself in a position of being a contender by gathering the appropriate assets? To stay a contender, or to win? You may not want to be a one and done team, but if you think it's your time, do you pass up the opportunity to latch onto someone like Ladd for that final push?

Someone will "pay" for him, IMO.

If you are so close to winning you go all out, your core gets older you may not get another chance because injuries happen every year, things have to line up perfectly.

In baseball they get it, they give up more than any other sport to make a run.

Whatever they give up now can be replenished when they are not in that situation and they can trade for a pick and prospects for their ufa,s.

 

[ps241]

Dunno Gin, I'm kinda buyin' what Mort's selling here. If a team has say a 3 year "win now" window, and Ladd helps more with 1 year as a rental, but the asset may help more with the following 2 years and beyond (cheap talent on ELC under a depressed cap), things start getting muddy. It probably makes it easier t pry picks, and harder to pry near-ready prospects as part of the trade.

Of course, I know almost nothing about the NHL, and just kinda make it up as I go along.

Regarding Raffl - tough to know how things would have worked out if he didn't get injured. It was a weird move, but I was rooting for Raffl to make an impact. Thought he looked at least kinda promising at the beginning of the year.

Hard for me as a Jets fan to fully understand win now. Also hard for me as a Jets fan to understand a GM who might need to win to save his job. Every spring there is an arms race to try to get close teams over the top and this spring will be no different IMO.

One example. I don't know how secure Murray's job is with the Ducks but "if" they win a cup it will be this season or maybe next. Getz and Perry both turn 32 next spring and Kesler will be almost 33. When those guys age out the cup era is dead and gone. They were close enough to taste it last season and if they want to beat LA or Chicago this spring they might need to add that "get us over the top" rental asset. They have a gaping hole in their top 6 left wing.

Now the Ducks are a budget team that have drafted well so maybe Murray's job is secure and he can afford to play this out as is but I would go nuts if the Jets were this close and we didn't pull the trigger to try to get us over the top.

So that is one of maybe 6 teams that all probably think they have a legit shot......not to mention the GM's who might feel like they need to do well now or be gone.

Ladd in this snapshot in time may be on the outs with allot of our fan base but that is situational. Tough season on the cusp of a long extension. Fans wanting change from our older core etc etc. Ladd as a rental to a team that is already there but only needs an edge will be impossible to turn away from. I would use Marion Gaborik as example A. He was struggling in Columbus but joined the Kings as a talented rental and was placed on a great line, went on a run, and LA got the cup magic. It is one thing to carry a team like the Jets, it is entirely different venture to be an add on guy to get an already great team over the top.

Ladd will be a hot commodity at the TD and I would bet the farm on it.

 

[Puckatron 3000]

Puckatron: what's the ultimate goal of putting yourself in a position of being a contender by gathering the appropriate assets? To stay a contender, or to win? You may not want to be a one and done team, but if you think it's your time, do you pass up the opportunity to latch onto someone like Ladd for that final push?

Someone will "pay" for him, IMO.

Yeah, I'm sure there will be buyers. I just don't know what they'll offer.

I look at a team like the Hawks having to shed a guy like Saad due to cap concerns. That in itself is nothing new. But now the cap starts falling, and they're already pressed right to the edge, already giving up key guys. I dunno, I just see it could shake up the usual rules on near-ready prospects. Having a guy like Teravainen around to slot in becomes pretty damn important. He's able to contribute now, and does it cheaply enough to hold on to the rest of your ultra-super-expensive-super-awesome-roster (tm).

Teravainen is probably a terrible example of any sort of expected return for Ladd - he was an 18th overall draft pick. But it's just the best example I could think of with the Hawks and a key new prospect making the team.

So yeah, I definitely agree there will still be teams who are buyers. But they may want to shoot their far-future self in the foot (picks, undeveloped prospects) more than near-future self (near ready prospects) because that near-term wound is gonna bleed out especially hard given the dire cap situation.

But I would agree that a team right at the end of their "win now" window wouldn't care either way.

Really just spitballin' here. But it seems all proper mathilogical to me.

 

[YWGinYYZ]

@Puckatron: if Ladd is on the market, name another player that could have the type of impact he'd have for a team that considers itself a true contender. There really aren't many, if any.

Ladd would end up on the 1st or 2nd line on the Hawks, pushing their wingers down the depth chart, and adding immeasurably to their strength up front.

The Hawks aren't the only team that would be in the bidding either - strange things can happen when more than one team is looking for an asset of the level of Ladd. Depressed market or not, in my opinion there'd be a bit of a bidding war for one of the strongest available wingers at the TD.

 

[KingBogo]

Hard for me as a Jets fan to fully understand win now. Also hard for me as a Jets fan to understand a GM who might need to win to save his job. Every spring there is an arms race to try to get close teams over the top and this spring will be no different IMO.

One example. I don't know how secure Murray's job is with the Ducks but "if" they win a cup it will be this season or maybe next. Getz and Perry both turn 32 next spring and Kesler will be almost 33. When those guys age out the cup era is dead and gone. They were close enough to taste it last season and if they want to beat LA or Chicago this spring they might need to add that "get us over the top" rental asset. They have a gaping hole in their top 6 left wing.

Now the Ducks are a budget team that have drafted well so maybe Murray's job is secure and he can afford to play this out as is but I would go nuts if the Jets were this close and we didn't pull the trigger to try to get us over the top.

So that is one of maybe 6 teams that all probably think they have a legit shot......not to mention the GM's who might feel like they need to do well now or be gone.

Ladd in this snapshot in time may be on the outs with allot of our fan base but that is situational. Tough season on the cusp of a long extension. Fans wanting change from our older core etc etc. Ladd as a rental to a team that is already there but only needs an edge will be impossible to turn away from. I would use Marion Gaborik as example A. He was struggling in Columbus but joined the Kings as a talented rental and was placed on a great line, went on a run, and LA got the cup magic. It is one thing to carry a team like the Jets, it is entirely different venture to be an add on guy to get an already great team over the top.

Ladd will be a hot commodity at the TD and I would bet the farm on it.

Agreed, that Ladd will be sought after at the TD. But there is a lot of interesting speculation on what that adds up to. The point about teams being very reluctant to deal near ready prospects is valid, but IMO that reluctance will also be dependent on the potential of the prospect. Either way it will be interesting how this plays out, but the right thing is for Chevy to try to get as many teams in on the discussions as possible. Only 2 weeks to go.

 

[ps241]

@Puckatron: if Ladd is on the market, name another player that could have the type of impact he'd have for a team that considers itself a true contender. There really aren't many, if any.

Ladd would end up on the 1st or 2nd line on the Hawks, pushing their wingers down the depth chart, and adding immeasurably to their strength up front.

The Hawks aren't the only team that would be in the bidding either - strange things happen when more that one team is looking for an asset of the level of Ladd. Depressed market or not, in my opinion there'd be a bit of a bidding war for one of the strongest available wingers at the TD.

The thing is he could actually be the difference for a team because that is how dam thin the margins are.

 

[Puckatron 3000]

No doubt, Ladd is huge to any team's playoff/cup chances. Not disputing that at all.

Depressed market or not, in my opinion there'd be a bit of a bidding war for one of the strongest available wingers at the TD.

I hope you're right.

If Chevy does end up resigning Ladd instead of trading him, it's going to kill me not knowing what kind of offers he got.

 

[KingBogo]

No doubt, Ladd is huge to any team's playoff/cup chances. Not disputing that at all.



I hope you're right.

If Chevy does end up resigning Ladd instead of trading him, it's going to kill me not knowing what kind of offers he got.

Agreed. But I think it is also very possible we move Ladd at the TD and are back in the long term contract discussions with him come July 1st.

 

[Puckatron 3000]

Agreed. But I think it is also very possible we move Ladd at the TD and are back in the long term contract discussions with him come July 1st.

Yeah, that's one place where the current cap projections work in our favour. Less competition to resign Ladd, lower market value for aging vets. Kinda changes "rental" to "rent and return". For sure an ideal scenario.

 

[Channelcat]

Agreed. But I think it is also very possible we move Ladd at the TD and are back in the long term contract discussions with him come July 1st.

Well, Chevy better get to work on his RFA's because we don't have a whole of money coming off the books.

 

[KingBogo]

Yeah, that's one place where the current cap projections work in our favour. Less competition to resign Ladd, lower market value for aging vets. Kinda changes "rental" to "rent and return". For sure an ideal scenario.

You add in that his wife has her own established career and they have set roots in Winnipeg. I just think it is a very possible outcome.

 

[KingBogo]

Well, Chevy better get to work on his RFA's because we don't have a whole of money coming off the books.

Agreed that scenario would require at least one of Scheif or Trouba signing a bridge deal.

 

[CorgisPer60]

It was mentioned on Saturday that Chevy is consulting with the budget people to see where they stand as far as money relative to the cap is concerned. Whatever the case may be, 2 weeks are all that remains. I want to see him traded; we have other LW assets that can step in. In fact, I think that's why Ehlers stepped into that role and Ladd was moved to the 3rd line. I love the scoring balance that top 9 brings, but I wonder who will replace Ladd on it if he's traded. Oh, wait - no I don't. Thorburn...

Also, I see Chef signing a bridge but Trouba getting a long-term deal.

 

[Gm0ney]

Agreed that scenario would require at least one of Scheif or Trouba signing a bridge deal.

I think they will sign both to bridge deals. A falling cap is a good leverage point for the Jets. A) Team (arguably) can't afford cap hit of long term deals now - but skies will be brighter in a couple of years. B) Fewer teams have the room to sign one of these guys to an offer sheet (and there weren't a ton to begin with). It's basically my-way-or-the-highway. No one's making an offer, so sign on the dotted line or have fun in Siberia.

 

[Puckatron 3000]

Also, I see Chef signing a bridge but Trouba getting a long-term deal.

I'm going to call opposites on this.
We'll consider it an informal bet, with absolutely zero stakes involved - just to make it all exciting.

 

[Stej]

If the cap rumours are true, Chevy needs to trim as much dead weight as possible. Ladd should for sure be traded for picks and/or younger players (not that he quite qualifies as "dead weight"); all of Stuart, Pavelec, Peluso, and Thorburn should be dealt for ANYTHING that another team will give, including future considerations; and bridge deals should be a strong consideration for Scheifele and Trouba.

The name of the game this offseason will be flexibility. There will be ample opportunity for big upgrades at reasonable prices. Dammit, if I wasn't so busy these days I'd throw together some analysis looking at how much cap space will be available around the league compared to all the UFAs and RFAs that need deals. I'm sure that type of analysis would show that there won't be enough cap space to go around.

Granted it's probably impossible to dump the 4 players I mentioned so...

 

[Puckatron 3000]

@ps241 - just felt like I should give a hat-tip to your post. Well said. Ducks are a great example of a "win now, like really right ****ing now" team.

And for sure, the desperation level of the GM is an important factor. Exploit it! Do it, Chevy! Exploit desperation!!! <-- (ok, what's goin on with that smilie?)

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I think this was their hopes or goal, they still hoped to be competitive and squeak into playoffs this season, But was prepared and knew that a step back may be a big possibility with giving these positions to the kids. They are looking at the long term picture and I still believe that (yes with some mistakes along the way) they still have a good plan and are executing it fairly well.

If all it took for every team was 5 years to be a contender, wouldn't the league be full of contenders? Not an easy road to get there. This year was a minor step back, but that's ok cause the long term goal is still in full effect.

The Jets were not an expansion team. They did not start from zero. They started with Ladd, Little, Wheeler, Kane, Burmi, Enstrom, Buff, Oduya, Hainsey, Bogo. That's 5 years worth of building there so we are in year 10.

 

[Aavco Cup]

Well, Chevy better get to work on his RFA's because we don't have a whole of money coming off the books.

Historically RFA deals usually take time. Many are done just before TC opens. It happens with all teams, it's not a Chevy thing. I don't expect anything to happen too quickly

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

The Raffl one was the strangest, why did we try to get so cute? A one way deal for a 29 year old career Euro league player when we could have other more proven NHL talent (not even going to mention the name) for similar cash? Not like he came into camp and lit it up or anything?

Raffl looked good in camp. He might have been useful as a depth player if he hadn't been injured.

The Jets had decided to go younger. Raffl was only 29. OK, you're right. That was was strange, even bizarre.

 

[truck]

The Jets were not an expansion team. They did not start from zero. They started with Ladd, Little, Wheeler, Kane, Burmi, Enstrom, Buff, Oduya, Hainsey, Bogo. That's 5 years worth of building there so we are in year 10.

That's 5 quality top 4 D men.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Dunno Gin, I'm kinda buyin' what Mort's selling here. If a team has say a 3 year "win now" window, and Ladd helps more with 1 year as a rental, but the asset may help more with the following 2 years and beyond (cheap talent on ELC under a depressed cap), things start getting muddy. It probably makes it easier t pry picks, and harder to pry near-ready prospects as part of the trade.

Of course, I know almost nothing about the NHL, and just kinda make it up as I go along.

Regarding Raffl - tough to know how things would have worked out if he didn't get injured. It was a weird move, but I was rooting for Raffl to make an impact. Thought he looked at least kinda promising at the beginning of the year.

Puckatron: what's the ultimate goal of putting yourself in a position of being a contender by gathering the appropriate assets? To stay a contender, or to win? You may not want to be a one and done team, but if you think it's your time, do you pass up the opportunity to latch onto someone like Ladd for that final push?

Someone will "pay" for him, IMO.

If you are so close to winning you go all out, your core gets older you may not get another chance because injuries happen every year, things have to line up perfectly.

In baseball they get it, they give up more than any other sport to make a run.

Whatever they give up now can be replenished when they are not in that situation and they can trade for a pick and prospects for their ufa,s.

I'm not trying to sell a depressed TD market as something that will happen. We are looking at a pretty dynamic little marketplace and something new is happening to it. It will almost certainly have some effect but that effect may be large or small and it may go either one way or another. Markets adapt. Some team may decide that they are going to have to shed some of their best players to get compliant and this year is their last, best shot. I'm not predicting that either but who knows? It could happen.

I agree with those emphasizing win now. For some teams that will be the biggest factor. There will be a market and Ladd will be one of the most sought after players. There may be fewer teams in that market though. The assets they offer may come from a different basket. What effect the threat of a shrinking cap will have remains to be seen. A somewhat depressed market is just one possibility.

 

[YWGinYYZ]

@Mort: all it takes is one of the 4-6 or so teams that are contenders to "blink". If one of them thinks they may miss out, they'll cave. Happens every time - when faced with a core that may be one year further along (or UFAs that may walk after the season is over), some may see their window closing, and go for it.

If it were only one team that was in the running for someone like Ladd? Sure, then I could see it.