Speculation: Jets - General Rumour, Trade, Free Agent and Waiver Speculation 14-15 Part XII

[Mortimer Snerd]

Detroit has so many good pieces.

Darren Helm
Danny DeKeyser
Tomas Tatar/Gustav Nyquist
Tomas Jurco/Teemu Pulkkinen
Anthony Mantha/Xavier Ouellet/#19
(Brendan Smith)

I want them all!
If we can somehow get one of DeKeyser/Nyquist/Tatar, awesome.

DeKeyser + Helm for Buff. Might need some tinkering with picks to make everybody happy but it would be the basis of a deal.

Smith + Helm + 19 for Buff. Same caveat.

Apparently they want a big, physical D with a mean streak. If Buff isn't that then no one is. We want a 2LHD (doesn't have to be an all-star, just legit 2nd pair) and all the GOOD wingers we can get. Neither Smith nor Helm is a premium player but both are good enough, therefore #19.

Should be able to make it work.

 

[mcpw]

I'll stop making proposals with Byfuglien in it. Value's too hard to judge.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I'll stop making proposals with Byfuglien in it. Value's too hard to judge.

Can't argue with that. Even looking at it as, are we better with trade X or better with Buff is hard to judge.

It is also hard to stop considering the possibilities.

TBH, I don't really think a Buff trade is more than about 1 chance in 4-5 of happening. My gut feeling is that Chevy prefers to extend him and will pay a lot to do it.

 

[sully1410]

DeKeyser + Helm for Buff. Might need some tinkering with picks to make everybody happy but it would be the basis of a deal.

Smith + Helm + 19 for Buff. Same caveat.

Apparently they want a big, physical D with a mean streak. If Buff isn't that then no one is. We want a 2LHD (doesn't have to be an all-star, just legit 2nd pair) and all the GOOD wingers we can get. Neither Smith nor Helm is a premium player but both are good enough, therefore #19.

Should be able to make it work.

Dude, you make no sense. In the other thread to get a similar package we had to add Burmistrov and the 25th pick.

 

[mcpw]

What have we learned this year?
In the end, there will be a blockbuster of epic proportions and HF will argue ad infinitum who won the trade.
Byfuglien+Burmistrov+Kosmachuk+#25+#17
for
Nyquist+Helm+Mantha+Ouellet+#19
You get the picture.

 

[EpicGingy]

HF gets even more up in arms if a player has perceived character issues.

 

[Huffer]

Obviously anyone can get traded, but I don't think there is much chance that Dekeyser is even remotely available.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Dude, you make no sense. In the other thread to get a similar package we had to add Burmistrov and the 25th pick.

Smith and Helm are far short of Bailey and CDH. Not even close. I'm not the one who isn't making sense here. Draft order doesn't trump later performance but there is a reason that these 2 were a late 1st and a 5th compared to an early and a mid 1st. Helm is way exceeding expectations but he is still not up to Bailey. Smith is doing OK but he doesn't match CDH either. The 2 Detroit players are older. Just being older alone reduces their value slightly. They can also be assumed to have peaked. The 2 Isles players are already better and are younger and have possibly not yet peaked.

Apples and oranges.

 

[mcpw]

Obviously anyone can get traded, but I don't think there is much chance that Dekeyser is even remotely available.

My feeling as well.

 

[jiho]

There is quite a bit of speculation of resigning or trading Buff this summer. What are the odds Chevy does neither (does not want to pay what Buff is asking and can't get value wanted in a trade). I would not at all be surprised if this is what ends up happening in the short term. We might have to wait until the trade deadline.

 

[KingBogo]

There is quite a bit of speculation of resigning or trading Buff this summer. What are the odds Chevy does neither (does not want to pay what Buff is asking and can't get value wanted in a trade). I would not at all be surprised if this is what ends up happening in the short term. We might have to wait until the trade deadline.

If we get to next year's TD and Buff has not been re-signed or traded Chevy should be fired. And I'm probably as big a Chevy fan there is around here. What happens at the TD if we are in a playoff position? You still trade Buff for some futures. Or worse Buff is hurt and you get nothing. Way too much risk. Chevy has to act decisively this summer. You either re-sign or you make a trade. Sitting on your hands and dithering isn't an option IMO.

 

[mcpw]

At the deadline, something must happen, latest. I agree.
See: Mats Zuccarello this year. That's how it could turn out.
Let's not forget that we won't win the cup next year.

 

[sully1410]

Smith and Helm are far short of Bailey and CDH. Not even close. I'm not the one who isn't making sense here. Draft order doesn't trump later performance but there is a reason that these 2 were a late 1st and a 5th compared to an early and a mid 1st. Helm is way exceeding expectations but he is still not up to Bailey. Smith is doing OK but he doesn't match CDH either. The 2 Detroit players are older. Just being older alone reduces their value slightly. They can also be assumed to have peaked. The 2 Isles players are already better and are younger and have possibly not yet peaked.

Apples and oranges.

Forward forward.

Defenseman defensman

Hardly apples and oranges.

And to be fair, you said Dekeyser and Helm for Buff which is a deal I could get behindm The other deal was Smith, Helm and their first. Which I could also get behind.

The difference between those two packages and the Isles one that you suggested IS NOT a first round draft pick and Alex Burmistrov.

 

[meedle]

If we get to next year's TD and Buff has not been re-signed or traded Chevy should be fired. And I'm probably as big a Chevy fan there is around here. What happens at the TD if we are in a playoff position? You still trade Buff for some futures. Or worse Buff is hurt and you get nothing. Way too much risk. Chevy has to act decisively this summer. You either re-sign or you make a trade. Sitting on your hands and dithering isn't an option IMO.

I don't think he should be fired but I feel it will be a big mistake as you have stated. I'm a big fan of trading him at the draft.

 

[mcpw]

I don't think he should be fired but I feel it will be a big mistake as you have stated. I'm a big fan of trading him at the draft.

He should be fired if Thorburn plays on the third line and Stuart plays on the second pairing at the same time

 

[KingBogo]

I don't think he should be fired but I feel it will be a big mistake as you have stated. I'm a big fan of trading him at the draft.

Agreed. Fired is a bit far. But I could no longer be Chevy supporter if he bungles the Buff situation. Also agreed a trade at the draft might be the most opportune time to make a move.

 

[Bob E]

My belief is Chevy will try to sign both Ladd and Buff to extensions this off-season. We have cap space, especially if Frolik and Stafford are not resigned.

Though, I think Chevy tries very hard to sign Frolik and Stafford, too. I think there's a better chance that Stafford is resigned.


Edit:
So I'll put Frolik's signing at 10/90 - or a no.
Stafford - 50/50
Buff - 60/40
Ladd - 75/25

Burmi being traded, maybe at draft, 95/5 - or a yes.

 

[KingBogo]

My belief is Chevy will try to sign both Ladd and Buff to extensions this off-season. We have cap space, especially if Frolik and Stafford are not resigned.

Though, I think Chevy tries very hard to sign Frolik and Stafford, too. I think there's a better chance that Stafford is resigned.


Edit:
So I'll put Frolik's signing at 10/90 - or a no.
Stafford - 50/50
Buff - 60/40
Ladd - 75/25

Burmi being traded, maybe at draft, 95/5 - or a yes.

I've been moving that way as well. A month ago I'd put a Buff trade at 80-20, now the odds of signing him at 60-40 sounds close to me. Ladd might even be greater then 75-25. The question becomes if the Jets sign both Buff and Ladd are they now in win now mode instead of draft and develop. Of course you continue to draft and develop your picks, but now you have moved into paying premium prices for vets at the peak of their prime. Doesn't make sense to waste that with a slow and steady approach. This is likely the last draft year that there is any chance of our picks being able to mesh with the older and soon to be highly paid core of players.

 

[jetkarma*]

My belief is Chevy will try to sign both Ladd and Buff to extensions this off-season. We have cap space, especially if Frolik and Stafford are not resigned.

Though, I think Chevy tries very hard to sign Frolik and Stafford, too. I think there's a better chance that Stafford is resigned.


Edit:
So I'll put Frolik's signing at 10/90 - or a no.
Stafford - 50/50
Buff - 60/40
Ladd - 75/25

Burmi being traded, maybe at draft, 95/5 - or a yes.

Frolik 25 % he resigns .

Stafford 65 % he resigns .

Buff 80 % he reups .

Ladd 90 % he reups .

Burmistrov 75 % he gets traded .

My take on this .

 

[meedle]

Agreed. Fired is a bit far. But I could no longer be Chevy supporter if he bungles the Buff situation. Also agreed a trade at the draft might be the most opportune time to make a move.

I think it is bigger than just the cap situation and declining asset although that is bad enough. IMO if you play Trouba as a 5th Dman behind Buff and Myers, he will ask for a trade at some point even if you sign him 7 years in his next contract. I think he is way too competitive to not have a bigger role on a team.

 

[mcpw]

I think it is bigger than just the cap situation and declining asset although that is bad enough. IMO if you play Trouba as a 5th Dman behind Buff and Myers, he will ask for a trade at some point even if you sign him 7 years in his next contract. I think he is way too competitive to not have a bigger role on a team.

I wouldn't be to worried.
TOI/game, all situations
(includes Buffalo and Carolina minutes, includes Byfuglien at forward, includes overtime)
Myers 24.7
Trouba 23.6
Bogosian 23.5
Enstrom 23.1
Byfuglien 22.4
Stuart 19.4
Chiarot 16.8
Clitsome 16.6
Harrison 16.0
Pardy 15.1
Postma 14.4

 

[supersonic jet]

I think it is bigger than just the cap situation and declining asset although that is bad enough. IMO if you play Trouba as a 5th Dman behind Buff and Myers, he will ask for a trade at some point even if you sign him 7 years in his next contract. I think he is way too competitive to not have a bigger role on a team.

If he can adjust to playing on left side he could play 30 min a game.

 

[jetkarma*]

Seems like Mantha is on the outs in Detroit so I am a bit leary of trading for other teams failed prospects. He is young still and maybe he just needs a change of orgs but I didn't like it when Detroit went public last season calling out Mantha, that feels like a last ditch effort at lighting a fire under a kid.

Seeing your avatar made me think of my favourite Tom Waits story .

A fellow musician years back was telling Tom Waits the way he got through customs and security with his preferred contraband.

He said he got a Snickers bar , let it get warm and mushy and then put it in some underwear which he then placed at the top of his pile of things in his suitcase .

Tom Waits , paused for a bit and then said " why waste a good Snickers bar ? " .

 

[CorgisPer60]

I see Chevy is trying to retain Stafford. I know he sucks with his 2-way play, so all I hope for is that he doesn't get overpaid.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Forward forward.

Defenseman defensman

Hardly apples and oranges.

And to be fair, you said Dekeyser and Helm for Buff which is a deal I could get behindm The other deal was Smith, Helm and their first. Which I could also get behind.

The difference between those two packages and the Isles one that you suggested IS NOT a first round draft pick and Alex Burmistrov.

You persist on not liking Bailey and CDH. You have given no argument of any kind to explain your position. I'll call DeKeyser and CDH a sawoff. Bailey is way ahead of Helm. Thus the difference. You don't like the 2 Isles players. I do. We disagree. I can't discuss something with someone who merely insists on a position without giving any supporting argument. We will just have to agree to disagree.