Speculation: Jets - General Rumour, Trade, Free Agent and Waiver Speculation 14-15 Part XII

[YWGinYYZ]

Continued from here: http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1854153

Click to read more...

 

[YWGinYYZ]

Some posts from the last thread:

i think an overpayment (salary &/or term) on Stafford is a bigger fear to me than what we do with Frolik frankly. if for 'space' reasons, we had to pick only two of stafford, frolik, burmistrov, it's not even close, and i drop stafford. I think the 'hey look how well he did at the end of the season with a non terrible team, he must be worth a lot' mentality is going to cause a problem for whatever team signs him.

Now if his value doesn't get inflated, maybe I change my mind, but I have a feeling he'll be looking to be paid way more than he should be.

I don't think we will. I just see the way that this team has been built and the path it has walked up until now. Two more years will be more then enough time for one of Ehlers or Petan or whoever the **** to step and play Fro's role. That is just the way I see it.

Maybe i'm cheap...but I don't see Frolik as a long term 4.5mil player...in fact there is really no universe in which I would be ok with him signing a long term deal for that much, unless there is an alternate universe in which I have been kicked in the head by a horse and have been rendered mentally incapable. I don't think he's worth much more then 3.5...but we all know he's probably going to get much more then that on the open market and then before you know it we have a Nathan Horton/David Clarkson situation on our hands with a guy that is hella over paid for what he brings to the table and we are stuck with him.

Give him more money, on a short term deal until our prospects can step in and replace him. Best possible solution.

Agree that Frolic is the most essential UFA to bring back -- can't overpay him at anywhere under 5/yr IMO.

But I'd be real reluctant to give up on Burmi & not give him a decent shot particularly because I think he'll come pretty cheap, is phenomenal insurance (when guys inevitably go down with iunjuries), and is supremely underrated for his defensive and offensive production (less so the latter but I think he has good potential).

For instance, if you had to pay Burmi 2.5/yr and Staff >3.75/yr -- is there any question who you'd rather have going forward for the next 2-4 years?

 

[Jetabre]

Trade:


Ondrej Pavelec



Carey Price

Thoughts?

 

[Evil Little]

Trade:


Ondrej Pavelec



Carey Price

Thoughts?

Habs get much-needed cap relief and Carey Price is from Western Canada, so... perfect for both sides!

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Some posts from the last thread:

I don't think we will. I just see the way that this team has been built and the path it has walked up until now. Two more years will be more then enough time for one of Ehlers or Petan or whoever the **** to step and play Fro's role. That is just the way I see it.

Maybe i'm cheap...but I don't see Frolik as a long term 4.5mil player...in fact there is really no universe in which I would be ok with him signing a long term deal for that much, unless there is an alternate universe in which I have been kicked in the head by a horse and have been rendered mentally incapable. I don't think he's worth much more then 3.5...but we all know he's probably going to get much more then that on the open market and then before you know it we have a Nathan Horton/David Clarkson situation on our hands with a guy that is hella over paid for what he brings to the table and we are stuck with him.

Give him more money, on a short term deal until our prospects can step in and replace him. Best possible solution.

Regardless of the cost or term to retain Frolik we have more openings than promising prospects. None of our promising prospects appears likely to fill the role that Frolik has filled for us. Just ignoring budgets, caps and market values for a moment there is no way we don't have an important place on the team for Frolik for the next 4-5 years.

Now to consider financial aspects, he is worth what he will bring on an open market. Just like your house and your car and your stock portfolio. There is a narrow range of plus/minus where we can say he is worth x to that team but x-y to us or x+y to us but that should be quite a narrow range since all teams have the same roster size and cap limit. Are we better off with him and without the money or without him and with the money? Keep in mind that one way or another, that money is going to be spent anyway. Or at least most of it is and as we approach being a cap team all of it will. Also keep in mind his potential to help generate the money which he does first by helping to sell expensive tickets and secondly by getting into the POs and generating more revenue.

I'm not ready to pay him as much as some here would but i would pay him more that you would. I would go north of 4mil. Stafford signed for 4mil per yr, 4 years ago. Frolik is clearly a better player than Stafford and contracts have risen over the last 4 years. You could argue that Staff never lived up to that contract but that would be more than accounted for by the increase of the last 4 years.

What will really P me off is if we sign Stafford for 4mil and Frolik signs somewhere else for 4.25 mil.

 

[sully1410]

I super hate you Gin. I really do. I had this super long post that compared Frolik and Burmi and how their development is actually quite similar...it had numbers and everything.

Now its gone since I tried to post it and you closed the thread. I'm not posting it again...so you guys can all look it up.

 

[YWGinYYZ]

I super hate you Gin. I really do. I had this super long post that compared Frolik and Burmi and how their development is actually quite similar...it had numbers and everything.

Now its gone since I tried to post it and you closed the thread. I'm not posting it again...so you guys can all look it up.

Hit the back button a couple of times, copy, paste, submit. Voila.

We can't win - we go over the post count limit, we get it from silver and romang (not that I care ), or we dutifully shut the thread down, and ...

 

[sully1410]

Hit the back button a couple of times, copy, paste, submit. Voila.

We can't win - we go over the post count limit, we get it from silver and romang (not that I care ), or we dutifully shut the thread down, and ...

I tried that...other wise I wouldn't have been angry. But yea it was gone. I'll write it again in a minute.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I super hate you Gin. I really do. I had this super long post that compared Frolik and Burmi and how their development is actually quite similar...it had numbers and everything.

Now its gone since I tried to post it and you closed the thread. I'm not posting it again...so you guys can all look it up.

I tried that...other wise I wouldn't have been angry. But yea it was gone. I'll write it again in a minute.

Go ahead. Prove to me that Burmi is just as good as Frolik or even a reasonable facsimile thereof. That will make me want Burmi more. It won't make me want Frolik less. I'd have 1 Frolik clone on every line (have to pay the 4th line one less ).

 

[sully1410]

Ok...so round two. Fight!

This was originally written in response to i think Hammer? Or maybe Hank that wrote that they didn't have confidence that Burmi was going to play for us or that he would be a decent replacement for Fro.

I disagree on both counts. This is what we know about the Burmistrov situation. 1.) his KHL contract is up. 2.) the coach that he took issue with is no longer here. 3.) He always wanted to play in the NHL. 4.) the Russian Ruble is ****. This is what I suspect about Burmistrov. He was sent to the KHL, mostly because we didn't have cap space to actually sign him. I'm not sure how any of that adds up to him not playing for the Jets again. He has to sign with us, or he can walk his russian ass back over to Russia to play there for pennies on the proverbial and literal dollar. That is a fact. He belongs to us, no one else. He can't just sign with whoever the **** he wants and be on his way. No. He's Jet property until he hits 27 or 7 years in the league. The only possible scenario is that Chevy trades him...but this is doubtful. Burmi now has an extra two years of development under him in the second strongest league in the world. Chances are he will never completely find his offensive game like we want him too...but he will continue to be elite offensively. My point here is that there is no way to tell how good Alex will actually be until you see for yourself.

I mean hey...Pavel Datsyuk didn't hit the league until four years after he was drafted...and went undrafted for 2 years before that.

So my guess is that Alex Burmistrov will at least be a Jet next year if not beyond. Now as for him not being able to replace Frolik in terms of offense production, well that remains to be seen. Its not like Fro is a 60pt beast...he has put up a very respectable 42 points in each of his seasons with the Jets with a sustainable SH% in between 7-9% each year.

Disclaimer: Due to laziness...a lot of these numbers are going to be rounded up or down.

However it wasn't always that way. During his formative Chicago years, he posted SH% that ranged between 3-5%. For those that don't know...he was in Chicago for two and a half years before being traded to the Jets. In the years previous he posted a 9% and a 13% in his first two seasons in Florida.

Burmistrov's totals were in between 6-10 for his whole career. 8.5% average.

So I decided that i was going to look into this a bit further. Enter behind the net and my greatest and best Garret impression. The first thing I looked at were zone starts.

This past season, Frolik's best, He started a total of 53.4% of his starts in the Offensive Zone, while finishing 51.8% in the offensive zone. In seasons past, he didn't start nearly as many. In Winnipeg last year he started 51.5% in the Off Zone, and had a Off Zone Finish of 46.9%. His last year in Chicago he had a Off Zone start of 50.4% and an Off Zone finish of 54%...but this year he only posted 10pts in 45 games. This would equal approximately 18pts for a full schedule. In the years previous he had an Off Zone start 50.1, 44.6 with Off Zone finishes of 49.5 and 47.9 respectively.

In Alex Burmistrov's third year he had a Off Zone start of 52% and a Off Zone finish of 56%, which are better numbers then Frolik has ever had while in a Winnipeg Jets or Chicago Black Hawks uniform. They were even better then his best years with the Panthers.

One of the biggest knocks against Alex is his offensive production...so lets explore that shall we?

In Burmi's third year here...he posted a whopping ten points. You know who else did that? Michael Frolik...but this is the difference. Sh%. Burmistrov's may have been a bit low at 7.3, thats 3.2% off of his career best of 10.5%, Fro's was only 3.1%. The big difference? Shots taken. Frolik took almost as many shot in one season as Burmistrov has in his whole career. In Fro's best year in Florida, he took 219 shots...Burmi has only taken 244 for his whole career in the NHL. You may be asking yourself...whats the point sully?

Well I'll tell you...Frolik has a higher on ice sh% at 8.68%, while Burmi has only a 6.43%. What does this prove? If i had to guess, it means that Fro had better line mates and Burmi is a better playmaker then an actual scorer. Another interesting note is that In Frolik's third year in the league, his on ice sh% was eerily similar to Burmi's at 6.85%. Now for the biggest difference. the Corsi. Now i only include this to not be considered to be cherry picking stats to prove my point...and frankly outside of knowing that a negative number is bad and positive number is good...I have no idea what it means or how to apply it in context.It is just there for your reading enjoyment.

I only did each of their third pro year, because thats the last year for Burmi and I didn't think it to be fair to use Fro now as opposed to when he was 23.



Corsi Rel QoC Corsi QoC Corsi Relative Corsi on Ice

......... CRQ .................CQ ................CR....................COI
Frolik:....0.088...............-0.443...............5.7...................12.33

Burmi:....0.043................0.052...............6.54...................3.44


Now, once again...not a ****ing clue what that means. But beat in mind, that Frolik generally had better line mates then Burmi did and he played on a much stronger Blackhawks team that had won the cup the year before. If I was forced to come to a conclusion...Its not as far off as anyone thinks and I would give Burmi pretty decent odds to being a half decent offensive player with a strong defensive game...just like Frolik.

Come at me.

 

[Romang67]

Is there any way a mod can make the above comment disappear?

 

[Jetabre]

Is there any way a mod can make the above comment disappear?

My attention span doesn't allow me the time to actually read through it, so I just keep seeing a huge blur as I quickly scroll over it.

 

[sully1410]

Is there any way a mod can make the above comment disappear?

Why? Because I'm right?

 

[YWGinYYZ]

Why? Because I'm right?

No, because he wants to see you burst a blood vessel over the post disappearing again, methinks.

Personally, I think Burmi could work extremely well in Maurice's system - it's mostly N-S, but not exclusively. It also favours gaining the o-zone with control. Will he ever light up the scoreboard? Unlikely, but he can contribute in many other ways.

Speaking to your SH% comments: if I had one complaint about Burmi, it was his lack of shot attempts.

 

[sully1410]

No, because he wants to see you burst a blood vessel over the post disappearing again, methinks.

Personally, I think Burmi could work extremely well in Maurice's system - it's mostly N-S, but not exclusively. It also favours gaining the o-zone with control. Will he ever light up the scoreboard? Unlikely, but he can contribute in many other ways.

Speaking to your SH% comments: if I had one complaint about Burmi, it was his lack of shot attempts.

I agree. If he shot the puck more he could easily be a 50pt player, if paired with decent line mates.

 

[pegjets]

Trade:


Ondrej Pavelec



Carey Price

Thoughts?

I see nothing wrong with this trade

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Why? Because I'm right?

I read it. It isn't that long. I'm not sure you were able to completely support your argument. For example, using Froliks Corsi data from his 1st season in Chicago when his usage was pretty bad. Yes, it was the third year in the league for both but it is still taking a snapshot that tends to favour Burmi. I'm not sure what you are trying to prove with all the talk about SH%.

I think this sentence is telling. "In Fro's best year in Florida, he took 219 shots...Burmi has only taken 244 for his whole career in the NHL. You may be asking yourself...whats the point sully?" What I take from that is Burmi doesn't shoot enough.

Frolik's offense is less than stellar although his strong possession game seems to add to the offense of his linemates. I suspect he could produce more offense if he set out to do that but his overall game might suffer. He also might do better if he had more consistent linemates but he keeps getting moved around to try to get struggling lines going. The result is that Frolik is a 1st/2nd/3rd line left/right winger.

Burmi's offense is quite a bit less than Frolik's. It hasn't been much better in the K so I think we can expect it to continue to be less than was hoped for when he was drafted. His defensive/possession play is very good though. Like Frolik he has a knack for making his linemates better (my subjective opinion). The result is that Burmi is a 3rd line LW/C who won't really excel at that but will be adequate. Being sound defensively he would be safe to move up if necessary.

Bottom line, Burmi can fill the roster spot vacated by Frolik. He cannot replace Frolik.

 

[sully1410]

I read it. It isn't that long. I'm not sure you were able to completely support your argument. For example, using Froliks Corsi data from his 1st season in Chicago when his usage was pretty bad. Yes, it was the third year in the league for both but it is still taking a snapshot that tends to favour Burmi. I'm not sure what you are trying to prove with all the talk about SH%.

I think this sentence is telling. "In Fro's best year in Florida, he took 219 shots...Burmi has only taken 244 for his whole career in the NHL. You may be asking yourself...whats the point sully?" What I take from that is Burmi doesn't shoot enough.

Frolik's offense is less than stellar although his strong possession game seems to add to the offense of his linemates. I suspect he could produce more offense if he set out to do that but his overall game might suffer. He also might do better if he had more consistent linemates but he keeps getting moved around to try to get struggling lines going. The result is that Frolik is a 1st/2nd/3rd line left/right winger.

Burmi's offense is quite a bit less than Frolik's. It hasn't been much better in the K so I think we can expect it to continue to be less than was hoped for when he was drafted. His defensive/possession play is very good though. Like Frolik he has a knack for making his linemates better (my subjective opinion). The result is that Burmi is a 3rd line LW/C who won't really excel at that but will be adequate. Being sound defensively he would be safe to move up if necessary.

Bottom line, Burmi can fill the roster spot vacated by Frolik. He cannot replace Frolik.

Their usage was much the same, except Burmi was better at it. I only compared their corsi for their thord season...and i actually think I effed up, I did 2012-2013 both. I'll look later.

And even at a time where they were both ised similarly Burmi still ended up in the offensive zone more often then Frolik did with starting there less and terrible line mates. Even in Fro's best offensive season, Burmi was more effectively pushing play forward to the offensive zone then Fro was.

And you're right. Burmi does need to shoot more. A lot more. If Maurice can get him to do that, he'll be a more effective player then Frolik is.

Just my observation, I could very well be wrong.


Edit: in terms of his K production he was awesome year one, but the whole team wasn't scoring much come year two and it affected his points. As I stated I think he is more of a play maker then a goal scorer.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Their usage was much the same, except Burmi was better at it. I only compared their corsi for their thord season...and i actually think I effed up, I did 2012-2013 both. I'll look later.

And even at a time where they were both ised similarly Burmi still ended up in the offensive zone more often then Frolik did with starting there less and terrible line mates. Even in Fro's best offensive season, Burmi was more effectively pushing play forward to the offensive zone then Fro was.

And you're right. Burmi does need to shoot more. A lot more. If Maurice can get him to do that, he'll be a more effective player then Frolik is.

Just my observation, I could very well be wrong.

Well, I'm not going to agree with that. It will take a lot more than just shooting more. If your argument was just that Burmi can be a lot better than what many here expect I think you have made a case but that is about as far as I would go.

I think we will get the chance to see for ourselves because I think our top 9 is going to have more vacancies than what Maurice will want filled with rookies. It has to be either play or trade and I really don't think it will be trade unless Chevy signs more FAs than I expect.

 

[sully1410]

Well, I'm not going to agree with that. It will take a lot more than just shooting more. If your argument was just that Burmi can be a lot better than what many here expect I think you have made a case but that is about as far as I would go.

I think we will get the chance to see for ourselves because I think our top 9 is going to have more vacancies than what Maurice will want filled with rookies. It has to be either play or trade and I really don't think it will be trade unless Chevy signs more FAs than I expect.

The argument was that Burmistrov wouldn't be a suitable replacement for Frolik should he not re-sign...I think I've proven here that the possibility is not only there but very likely.

You also need to consider that at a much younger age, Burmistrov proved to be a more effective player then Fro in a number of areas, and almost identical in others. I don't think its a stretch to say Burmi could be MORE effective.

Dude is only 23, so it would be incredibly foolish to say that he is done developing now. It stand to reason that his numbers will blow Fro's out of the water once he hots his prime years.

Or the KHL could have ruined him. Either or.

 

[JetsHomer]

I found Burmi's biggest deficit as a player was his shot. Nothing special or even particularly good about it. He'll never be a big goal scorer imo

 

[sully1410]

I found Burmi's biggest deficit as a player was his shot. Nothing special or even particularly good about it. He'll never be a big goal scorer imo

I agree. He doesn't shoot enough, and maybe that's because it isn't that effective...but if he has decent line mates he could very well be a decent playmaker.

 

[Gil Fisher]

Frolik doesn't have much of a shot either. All his goals are from in tight.

 

[Royale With Cheese]

Trade:


Ondrej Pavelec



Carey Price

Thoughts?

We may need to tweak this by adding a 4th round pick, but it's close.

 

[Mr Sakich]

oiler fan here. Is there any way a schultz for buff trade can make sense.

Schultz regressed this year but it was in large part due to playing with a rookie and an over the hill guy (Ference). When paired with Petry, he was successful. He played big minutes, more than he should. His 5/5 production was good but his pp production was down. That may be due to Eakins' terrible pp.

What he needs is a veteran partner and a 2nd pairing role, something the Jets can provide. In that circumstance, he can succeed.

The oilers are going to get bigger and tougher as per our new GM and Buff is a logical target. Schutlz does not fit that mold and I think he will be dealt. IMO, the Jets give him a very good chance to become a decent player.