Speculation: Jets - General Rumour, Trade, Free Agent and Waiver Speculation (12-13 Part XIII)

[Aela*]

Would you guys trade Pavelic for Fleury straight up?

Probably I would. He's still a good regular season goalie and right now that's what we need.

 

[Mathmew Purrrr Oh]

Would you guys trade Pavelic for Fleury straight up?

in a heartbeat

 

[Huffer]

I'm assuming he gets signed to a 3-4m deal in PHX, because of all the teams I think that's the only place he signs for that kind of deal.

I also like Yandle because he's a real good OFD and gives us more options to move Buff since he's a LHD.

Some stats:

Yandle is #3 in Dman assists and points in the past 3 seasons, #6 in goal scoring, and is +21 throughout that time.

Byfuglien is #2 in points, goals, and #6 in assists over the past 3 seasons with a -6 rating.

I'd also love to see Ribeiro come to the Jets, we should theoretically be able to afford him when he comes to UFA.

So the scenario is Smith resigns in Phoenix and then Maloney ships him out?

It's not a question about Yandle's offensive production to me, it's trying to figure out how the pieces would then fit pairing and role wise. As Garret mentions, Yandle and Buff would be great offensively, but we would then need Enstrom to handle tough minutes with Bogo.

 

[Aela*]

So the scenario is Smith resigns in Phoenix and then Maloney ships him out?

It's not a question about Yandle's offensive production to me, it's trying to figure out how the pieces would then fit pairing and role wise. As Garret mentions, Yandle and Buff would be great offensively, but we would then need Enstrom to handle tough minutes with Bogo.

Enstrom is a two way player anyways. Personally I'd rather spread my shutdown around on a couple of pairings, but I can definitely see the merits of having a shutdown line and an offensive line. Eventually we could replace Buff with Trouba and a good offensive forward coming back, and put Bogo/Trouba out there playing the tough minutes.

I'd also love to pry Brodin out of MIN to pair him with Bogo/Buff. He's looking like a great shutdown dman, and he plays as a LHD which would be perfect for us.

 

[garret9]

Enstrom is a two way player anyways. Personally I'd rather spread my shutdown around on a couple of pairings, but I can definitely see the merits of having a shutdown line and an offensive line. Eventually we could replace Buff with Trouba and a good offensive forward coming back, and put Bogo/Trouba out there playing the tough minutes.

I'd also love to pry Brodin out of MIN to pair him with Bogo/Buff. He's looking like a great shutdown dman, and he plays as a LHD which would be perfect for us.

Problem is... in many ways Yandle needs sheltering more so than Buff
Buff at least beats tough matchups when with Enstrom, Yandle hasn't faced toughs in his career yet (although 2010-11 is pretty close)

Brodin is pretty amazing... should of been Calder winner IMO

 

[ps241]

Ya Yandle get's softer minutes and severely pushed into OZS more than any in our top 4. He is basically treated how Postma was for us... just given a lot more minutes.
If we had Yandle it would probably be to pair up with Byfuglien, and we'd still need a tough minute person to go with Bogosian (I guess Enstrom could work?)...
That be a lot of $$$ in our top 4 D next season, although it be interesting having a core like:
Enstrom-Bogosian
Yandle-Byfuglien

It's OEL and whoever is with him (usually this season Zbynek) who take the tough minutes.
Speaking of OEL... he's ****ing awesome in those said tough mins.

On the Phoenix board (and Yandle trade threads) some Yotes posters seem to feel that Yandle gets the O zone starts because he is so good offensively and they don't need him to play the toughs. Less sheltering that maximizing his talents if that makes sense. Not saying they are correct but it sounds like they don't feel Yandle is a problem defensively they just feel Phoenix have better options for the shut downs rolls and it frees up Yandle to be Yandle.......thoughts?

 

[allan5oh]

I'd also love to pry Brodin out of MIN to pair him with Bogo/Buff. He's looking like a great shutdown dman, and he plays as a LHD which would be perfect for us.

Fat chance of that happening. Think Bogo +.

 

[sully1410]

Fat chance of that happening. Think Bogo +.

Bogo+? That's a bit steep ain't it?

 

[Huffer]

Fat chance of that happening. Think Bogo +.

That's ridiculous.

 

[allan5oh]

His stock is extremely high. How many kids come into the league and immediately slot into the 1st pairing and play a solid shut down role? Out of 5 season, Bogosian has only played one with more minutes/gm than Brodin this year. His trade value is tremendously high. Most of his points are at ES, and his pace is a bit below Bogosians. How many 19 year olds pull that kind of season off?

He's an absolute stud, and if Trouba has a similar year in the fall I'd be ecstatic.

 

[ps241]

His stock is extremely high. How many kids come into the league and immediately slot into the 1st pairing and play a solid shut down role? Out of 5 season, Bogosian has only played one with more minutes/gm than Brodin this year. His trade value is tremendously high. Most of his points are at ES, and his pace is a bit below Bogosians. How many 19 year olds pull that kind of season off?

He's an absolute stud, and if Trouba has a similar year in the fall I'd be ecstatic.

I love Brodin but he is playing with Suter so who can make people look pretty good. "IF" we had the Suter and paired him with Trouba this year I believe Jacob has what it takes to rise to that occasion based on what I have seen.

 

[truck]

I love Brodin but he is playing with Suter so who can make people look pretty good. "IF" we had the Suter and paired him with Trouba this year I believe Jacob has what it takes to rise to that occasion based on what I have seen.

The nerd stats suggest Brodin was the one lifting that pairing.


Could (legitimately) also be that everybody else there is so terrible that they dragged Suter down.

 

[garret9]

On the Phoenix board (and Yandle trade threads) some Yotes posters seem to feel that Yandle gets the O zone starts because he is so good offensively and they don't need him to play the toughs. Less sheltering that maximizing his talents if that makes sense. Not saying they are correct but it sounds like they don't feel Yandle is a problem defensively they just feel Phoenix have better options for the shut downs rolls and it frees up Yandle to be Yandle.......thoughts?

Well his numbers took a huge dip when in 2010-11 he wasn't used as offensively.
In 2010-11 he was given similar usage to Byfuglien this season... so let's compare:

Yandle|Stat|Byfuglien
0.637|RelQoC|0.608
51.8|OZS|50.1
1.7|RelCorsi|4.7
-2.0|(SF-SA)/60|-0.8
59.89|Shot Attempts Against (per 60)|55.40
51.4|ZS Adj GF%*|55.1
1.175|SV% Adj GA/20**|0.806

*ZS Adj GF% is essentially +/- but placed as a percentage and it's only looking when game is close (score is within 2 goals) and adjusted for zone starts (ignores first 10s after OZS/DZS puck drop)
**SV% Adj GA/20 is just what their goals against per 20 mins would be if they had the same goaltending

Looks like when he was used similarly to Buff, he defensively had similar/worse results than Buff this season... and that's under Tippett and a more defensive system according to most...

Whether that's good or bad defensively depends on your opinion of Buff's results. I personally think it's hyperbolized although I don't think it's all that great.

But, it shows my point, that both would be best optimized in the same way, being pushed to high OZS and not facing the toughest of toughs although they can take some match-ups...

 

[garret9]

I had to look at that again...

Wow if you remove the first 10s of play after a puck drop and any goals when the game has gotten carried away (more than 2 goals apart), Byfuglien goes from negative +/- (46.7%) to a positive (55.1%)

Crazy....


EDIT:
NM it's 46.7 => 55.1
That's a RIDICULOUSLY huge jump
I know Buff had some positive puckluck when he was with Clitsome but wow so weird...

 

[Huffer]

His stock is extremely high. How many kids come into the league and immediately slot into the 1st pairing and play a solid shut down role? Out of 5 season, Bogosian has only played one with more minutes/gm than Brodin this year. His trade value is tremendously high. Most of his points are at ES, and his pace is a bit below Bogosians. How many 19 year olds pull that kind of season off?

He's an absolute stud, and if Trouba has a similar year in the fall I'd be ecstatic.

Never said that he wasn't good or that his stock wasn't high. But he's not worth Bogosian + right now.

 

[ps241]

The nerd stats suggest Brodin was the one lifting that pairing.


Could (legitimately) also be that everybody else there is so terrible that they dragged Suter down.

That is indeed impressive Truck!

Edit: also good work on the comp breakdown between Buff and Yandle garret.

 

[Bob E]

Never said that he wasn't good or that his stock wasn't high. But he's not worth Bogosian + right now.

Absolutely, Huffer.

Brodin might be a smooth skating, puck moving dman, that can help get the puck out of the zone during the regular season. But he had a tougher time during the playoffs, iirc, when the play gets a bit more gritty, and more obstruction is let go. Btw, that also goes for another smooth skating Swedish dman in Ottawa.

Now, Brodin doesn't have Karlsson's offensive game, but the comparison was... in the playoffs, you need to have more to your game than being a smooth skating, puck-moving dman. I worry about Enstrom for the same reason.

Now Bogo has a big-time physical side to his game, plus he has an offensive game every bit of what Brodin has shown so far, imo.

That, imo, makes Bogo's value higher.

 

[truck]

Absolutely, Huffer.

Brodin might be a smooth skating, puck moving dman, that can help get the puck out of the zone during the regular season. But he had a tougher time during the playoffs, iirc, when the play gets a bit more gritty, and more obstruction is let go. Btw, that also goes for another smooth skating Swedish dman in Ottawa.

Now, Brodin doesn't have Karlsson's offensive game, but the comparison was... in the playoffs, you need to have more to your game than being a smooth skating, puck-moving dman. I worry about Enstrom for the same reason.

Now Bogo has a big-time physical side to his game, plus he has an offensive game every bit of what Brodin has shown so far, imo.

That, imo, makes Bogo's value higher.

There is another smooth skating Swedish D man that is having one heck of a post-season in Chicago.

 

[garret9]

There is another smooth skating Swedish D man that is having one heck of a post-season in Chicago.

Timonen is Fin but did pretty well in helping PHI get to the finals

 

[Sweech]

I'm fairly certain that Philadelphia will use their comliance buyout on Danny Briere (and possibly Bryz) Briere isn't young any more, but I think he's got enough juice left to slot in that 2nd line RW or C role.

 

[Flair Hay]

Never said that he wasn't good or that his stock wasn't high. But he's not worth Bogosian + right now.

I think the point was he is going NOWHERE

 

[Flair Hay]

I wouldn't be too worried about Toby in the playoffs provided he's in the right role.

Wouldnt want him shutting down the opponents' best every night, but as a two way guy he'd contribute for sure.

Dan Boyle is another smooth skater that isn't big or physical that can be effective.

 

[Flair Hay]

I'm fairly certain that Philadelphia will use their comliance buyout on Danny Briere (and possibly Bryz) Briere isn't young any more, but I think he's got enough juice left to slot in that 2nd line RW or C role.

God willing we actually make the post season it would be unbelievable to have this guy around. One of a few little men that actually excel more in the playoffs.

 

[Bob E]

There is another smooth skating Swedish D man that is having one heck of a post-season in Chicago.

Hjalmarsson? I like his solid shut-down game, too.

 

[garret9]

God willing we actually make the post season it would be unbelievable to have this guy around. One of a few little men that actually excel more in the playoffs.

Debatable but might be true.


We've had the clutch debate here before but he's still within zone where it could just be luck/variance in the difference:

We have 215 forwards whose talent and usage lead to an expectation of at least 10 playoff points. If variance were the only factor in play, we would expect about 5% of them -- about 11 players -- to be more than two standard errors away from their regular season scoring rate. We actually see 13 people outside that envelope, which is in quite good agreement.