Player Discussion Jesperi Kotkaniemi - Part 13

[The Great Weal]

Don't think he's been bad, in fact, I think he's been good, but very simple. Nothing that makes me say "damn this kid can be a great 1c". Still young, but the linemates excuse is crap because he's not head and shoulders better than a guy like Armia. Suzuki worked his way up by playing incredibly in the bottom 6, I haven't seen KK do that. KK also hasn't been playing as well as he did in the playoffs. I expected more from him. 8 goals and a 37 point pace is just not good enough for a 3rd overall pick in his 3rd season. I mean he's had a career average of like 11.5 goals a season which is the same as Philip Danault, the guy who has a career high of 13 goals a year and hasn't scored on a goalie in like 50 games.

 

[MasterD]

Don't think he's been bad, in fact, I think he's been good, but very simple. Nothing that makes me say "damn this kid can be a great 1c". Still young, but the linemates excuse is crap because he's not head and shoulders better than a guy like Armia. Suzuki worked his way up by playing incredibly in the bottom 6, I haven't seen KK do that. KK also hasn't been playing as well as he did in the playoffs. I expected more from him. 8 goals and a 37 point pace is just not good enough for a 3rd overall pick in his 3rd season. I mean he's had a career average of like 11.5 goals a season which is the same as Philip Danault, the guy with a horrendous shot.

Context is everything. One is 20 and playing. 13 mins a game, the other is in his prime and has been playing on our first line with the best wingers for 3 years.

 

[The Great Weal]

Context is everything. One is 20 and playing. 13 mins a game, the other is in his prime and has been playing on our first line with the best wingers for 3 years.

Why are you even comparing a defensive 3rd line center to a recent 3rd overall pick? The expectations shouldn't be the same. Also you are just dead wrong because Danault is averaging 2 and a half minutes more than KK, not 7. Tatar and Gallagher are not our best wingers this year, far from it. KK has played better in the playoffs with similar ice time, that's a crap excuse.

The guy should be compared to other top prospects/young players in the league because that's what he is supposed to be. What's the excuse when Suzuki had to play with Nate f***ing Thompson and he still performed like how he should? KK should be compared to Suzuki rather than Danault.

 

[Canadiens98]

Kotkaniemi should be on the 2nd line with Gally and Toffoli.

 

[morhilane]

Don't think he's been bad, in fact, I think he's been good, but very simple. Nothing that makes me say "damn this kid can be a great 1c". Still young, but the linemates excuse is crap because he's not head and shoulders better than a guy like Armia. Suzuki worked his way up by playing incredibly in the bottom 6, I haven't seen KK do that. KK also hasn't been playing as well as he did in the playoffs. I expected more from him. 8 goals and a 37 point pace is just not good enough for a 3rd overall pick in his 3rd season. I mean he's had a career average of like 11.5 goals a season which is the same as Philip Danault, the guy who has a career high of 13 goals a year and hasn't scored on a goalie in like 50 games.

Julien has been telling him to simplify his game since his first year. That coach is allergic to offensive creativity and his solution to slumping confidence is "simplify your game, don't do anything fancy, don't make mistakes or I'll bench you" which I'm pretty sure never helped anyone get their confidence back.

Saying that, KK started the year super well. It took 3 games for things to gel, then he went to have 7 pts in 7 games until that faithful Ottawa game where the entire team confidence died, KK's included. That 7 in 7 production was excellent with borderline 4th line and PP2 minutes (11-13 minutes a night). Until last game, he had the best pts/60 minutes of all the centers too, Suzuki is now slightly ahead of him.

He would have more goals if is shooting % wasn't half his normal average too (slowly coming back up along his confidence).

He probably would have more stable production if his wingers didn't rotate constantly as well. KK always take a few games to get adjusted to new linemates (spending less than 10 minutes a game with them is probably a factor) and he changed wingers 5 times in 20 games (Armia-> Perry, Perry-> Armia, Tiffoli->Tatar, Tatar /Armia-> Tiffoli/Perry, Tiffoli/Perry-> Lekh/Armia).

In other words, if Julien wasn't a pro at destroying kid's confidence (see Romanov for another example this year) and with better TOI, KK would have better production with the same linemates...linemates who all spent a turn on the 4th line except for Tiffoli and Tatar (who was benched instead).

Unless you are a generational talent, if your coach wants you to be a 3rd liner, set you up to be a 3rd liner and ask you to be a 3rd liner. You'll end-up a 3rd liner. Danault is a natural 3rd liner, KK was being turned/nerfed into one by the coach.

 

[MasterD]

Don't think he's been bad, in fact, I think he's been good, but very simple. Nothing that makes me say "damn this kid can be a great 1c". Still young, but the linemates excuse is crap because he's not head and shoulders better than a guy like Armia. Suzuki worked his way up by playing incredibly in the bottom 6, I haven't seen KK do that. KK also hasn't been playing as well as he did in the playoffs. I expected more from him. 8 goals and a 37 point pace is just not good enough for a 3rd overall pick in his 3rd season. I mean he's had a career average of like 11.5 goals a season which is the same as Philip Danault, the guy who has a career high of 13 goals a year and hasn't scored on a goalie in like 50 games.

Context is everything. One is 20 and playing. 13 mins a game, the other is in his prime and has been playing on our first line with the best wingers for 3 years.

Why are you even comparing a defensive 3rd line center to a recent 3rd overall pick? The expectations shouldn't be the same. Also you are just dead wrong because Danault is averaging 2 and a half minutes more than KK, not 7. Tatar and Gallagher are not our best wingers this year, far from it. KK has played better in the playoffs with similar ice time, that's a crap excuse.

The guy should be compared to other top prospects/young players in the league because that's what he is supposed to be. What's the excuse when Suzuki had to play with Nate f***ing Thompson and he still performed like how he should? KK should be compared to Suzuki rather than Danault.

YOU compared them, and I answered to that. And you compare their goals/season averages, a stat which talks about previous years. So you're comparing Danault's years at 24-25 when playing on the top line with our top wingers to KK's years at 18 and 19 playing with Armia and Lehkonen 12 minutes a game. I don't know how you can bitch at my post when I'm simply answering YOUR arguments.

 

[le_sean]

People mentioning Couturier developing into a special player quite late. Another player that has recently done the same, who I think KK resembles more, is Pavel Zacha. What has changed for Zacha is he’s finally shooting more and it’s going in, this is opening up options for him.

 

[DramaticGloveSave]

I think folks are mostly disappointed because he showed signs of taking it up a notch in the play-in. We saw the same from Suzuki as well. The difference is Suzuki looks like he actually has elevated his game, while KK is pretty much the exact same he’s always been.

 

[Tyson]

Odds are against Kotkaniemi reaching his potential because of the asinine decision to bring him up at 18. 2 3rd overall picks within 6 years of each other and neither will bring value to this organization.

 

[le_sean]

I think folks are mostly disappointed because he showed signs of taking it up a notch in the play-in. We saw the same from Suzuki as well. The difference is Suzuki looks like he actually has elevated his game, while KK is pretty much the exact same he’s always been.

Let’s be honest, all he showed in the playoffs was a physical side where he wanted to destroy everyone. But offensively there was nothing special. 2 goals in a 5-0 win. 1 goal with 2 mins left in what was a 2-0 game. I mean it’s not like he had chance after chance and set up glorious opportunities for his teammates. It simply caught people off guard since he was so bad he had to be sent to the AHL just a few months before. In the end 4 points in 10 games isn’t much to write home about.

 

[Toene]

You think Danault has been better then Kotkaniemi this year?

He hasn't scored a goal, the line he centers had been dismantled cause it was so bad and he hasn't been as solid defensively.

So basically...for Kotkaniemi to get more of an opportunity, he has to be a PPG player, averaging 13 mins a game?

Seems about right with how the Habs have operated the last 25yrs.

Young players have to be perfect

Veterans can shit the bed every night and it's ok.

Your post is so right I had a half-chub

 

[shamrun]

People mentioning Couturier developing into a special player quite late. Another player that has recently done the same, who I think KK resembles more, is Pavel Zacha. What has changed for Zacha is he’s finally shooting more and it’s going in, this is opening up options for him.

Seems to me when kotkaniemi enters the offensive zone with the puck he is missing that extra step or stick handle to give himself space to shoot. If he can solve that or if the coaching team can find a easy play he can resort to and find his shooting opportunities then i think KK could be a real threat.

 

[BushFireRecordsRedux]

Let’s be honest, all he showed in the playoffs was a physical side where he wanted to destroy everyone. But offensively there was nothing special. 2 goals in a 5-0 win. 1 goal with 2 mins left in what was a 2-0 game. I mean it’s not like he had chance after chance and set up glorious opportunities for his teammates. It simply caught people off guard since he was so bad he had to be sent to the AHL just a few months before. In the end 4 points in 10 games isn’t much to write home about.

Fans are going to be happy with anyone shooting 40% lol. Jesperi looked a lot more like a man in the playoffs, played heavy but you're right, he wasn't any different in there than he has been this season. A solid player who needs to learn his shot is good and take more than 1 shot per game.

 

[DramaticGloveSave]

Let’s be honest, all he showed in the playoffs was a physical side where he wanted to destroy everyone. But offensively there was nothing special. 2 goals in a 5-0 win. 1 goal with 2 mins left in what was a 2-0 game. I mean it’s not like he had chance after chance and set up glorious opportunities for his teammates. It simply caught people off guard since he was so bad he had to be sent to the AHL just a few months before. In the end 4 points in 10 games isn’t much to write home about.

He looked bigger and faster and was going to the net, but you are correct it wasn’t like he was showing a ton of skill and IQ like Suzuki was.

not sure what it is, but something in his game is broken. Either the stick is too long, or the game is still to fast for him, but he’s just not able to create much consistently at the moment.

 

[The Great Weal]

Julien has been telling him to simplify his game since his first year. That coach is allergic to offensive creativity and his solution to slumping confidence is "simplify your game, don't do anything fancy, don't make mistakes or I'll bench you" which I'm pretty sure never helped anyone get their confidence back.

Saying that, KK started the year super well. It took 3 games for things to gel, then he went to have 7 pts in 7 games until that faithful Ottawa game where the entire team confidence died, KK's included. That 7 in 7 production was excellent with borderline 4th line and PP2 minutes (11-13 minutes a night). Until last game, he had the best pts/60 minutes of all the centers too, Suzuki is now slightly ahead of him.

He would have more goals if is shooting % wasn't half his normal average too (slowly coming back up along his confidence).

He probably would have more stable production if his wingers didn't rotate constantly as well. KK always take a few games to get adjusted to new linemates (spending less than 10 minutes a game with them is probably a factor) and he changed wingers 5 times in 20 games (Armia-> Perry, Perry-> Armia, Tiffoli->Tatar, Tatar /Armia-> Tiffoli/Perry, Tiffoli/Perry-> Lekh/Armia).

In other words, if Julien wasn't a pro at destroying kid's confidence (see Romanov for another example this year) and with better TOI, KK would have better production with the same linemates...linemates who all spent a turn on the 4th line except for Tiffoli and Tatar (who was benched instead).

Unless you are a generational talent, if your coach wants you to be a 3rd liner, set you up to be a 3rd liner and ask you to be a 3rd liner. You'll end-up a 3rd liner. Danault is a natural 3rd liner, KK was being turned/nerfed into one by the coach.

Nice to see we are already blaming Julien entirely on KK. If that's the case, I don't want anyone to say "oh he's still so young" because you made it seem like he's already ruined. Also Suzuki was oozing offensive talent last year, and he didn't simplify his game or whatever, he just got better and better. Suzuki made tons of mistakes last year and he didn't get benched immediately like you are claiming, so that's just pure nonsense.

He started the year super well because Toffoli looked like Ovechkin against the Canucks, Armia played the game of his life, and Perry came out playing great. Of course KK helped those guys out too, but it was clear as day that those guys were boosting his totals more than he was. KK was also getting close to 14 min a night on average. You are also kind of contradicting yourself. If Julien basically threatened him and forced him to simplify his game, then how do you explain his playoff performance and great start to the year? p/60 is not a good stat at all because it claims that players could perform better with more ice time without taking into consideration the tougher competition they face.

His shooting percentage is on him, he takes forever to get his shot off.

That's a poor excuse. If Suzuki can be much better than anyone in the bottom 6 last year, so can KK. KK isn't even the best player on his line. Those guys aren't holding KK back. Many young players in the league have their linemates changed and it doesn't excuse their performance either.

So CJ wanted Suzuki to be a 3rd liner too right? In fact, Suzuki showed more offensive creativity than KK, but he's getting rewarded for it, not benched like how you are claiming. I don't consider Suzuki a generational talent by any means.

YOU compared them, and I answered to that. And you compare their goals/season averages, a stat which talks about previous years. So you're comparing Danault's years at 24-25 when playing on the top line with our top wingers to KK's years at 18 and 19 playing with Armia and Lehkonen 12 minutes a game. I don't know how you can bitch at my post when I'm simply answering YOUR arguments.

KK shouldn't be compared to Danault, but he is because his production isn't good. I'm not asking why you specifically are comparing him to Danault because you aren't, I'm saying that KK and Danault's production shouldn't even be as similar as it is right now therefore they shouldn't even be compared. Which is why in my last sentence I said he should be compared to Suzuki rather than Danault, I know you didn't bring up either player... Unless you think what Danault has done in his career offensively is so incredible, that a 3rd overall pick putting up similar numbers means they are doing great. KK needs to be blowing Danault's pathetic goal totals out of the water at the very least.

Seems to be that you are the one bitching about KK because you are providing such bullshit and nonsense as to why he's not producing. KK is NOT playing 12 minutes a game. Danault is playing 2 and a half minutes more than KK. KK is NOT playing with Armia and Lehkonen consistently, he played with the hottest players on the team to start the year and barely played with Armia and Lehkonen this year. KK is getting the same ice timer right now as he did in the playoffs and he was playing great then, he can play great now too.

 

[Ozmodiar]

He looked bigger and faster and was going to the net, but you are correct it wasn’t like he was showing a ton of skill and IQ like Suzuki was.

not sure what it is, but something in his game is broken. Either the stick is too long, or the game is still to fast for him, but he’s just not able to create much consistently at the moment.

I think it’s mostly this.
OTOH, a player like Suzuki always seems to play with a purpose. Knows what to do next, and doesn’t hesitate. If he’s back-checking, he knows which player to pick up. If he gets the puck, he has an idea of where he wants to go with it .... which is important because often it’s a one-touch pass. You never get the sense that he’s undecided. You don’t hear the gears grinding upstairs.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

I think folks are mostly disappointed because he showed signs of taking it up a notch in the play-in. We saw the same from Suzuki as well. The difference is Suzuki looks like he actually has elevated his game, while KK is pretty much the exact same he’s always been.

He gets limited minutes no matter how he plays.

We keep doing the same thing over and over and expect different results. It's stupid.

 

[Mrb1p]

People mentioning Couturier developing into a special player quite late. Another player that has recently done the same, who I think KK resembles more, is Pavel Zacha. What has changed for Zacha is he’s finally shooting more and it’s going in, this is opening up options for him.

Eh, Zacha's playing wing and shooting 8% over his career average and KKs ten time the player he is defensively and in transition.

With that said though, theres something about him playing a career high in minutes at ES and on the PP and playing with Hischier and Bratt instead of being deployed as a matchup 3C that resonates with me... but I don't know where i heard this, really.


*COUGH*f***ING GIVE HIM ICE-TIME AND STEADY OFFENSIVE LINE MATES ALREADY*COUGH*

 

[Mrb1p]

He gets limited minutes no matter how he plays.

We keep doing the same thing over and over and expect different results. It's stupid.

It should be the opposite too, regardless of how he plays feed him minutes, you wanted him in the NHL, youre f***ing mistake. Bergevin should call his coach and tell him to play the man, because everyones job is on his shoulders, literally.

I don't understand this shit, theyre all getting canned if they keep playing to not to lose, the only chance they have is to go with the kids and hope they explode, if they don't they get canned, if they do they might survive, if they go with the vets, they get canned either way.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

It should be the opposite too, regardless of how he plays feed him minutes, you wanted him in the NHL, youre f***ing mistake. Bergevin should call his coach and tell him to play the man, because everyones job is on his shoulders, literally.

I don't understand this shit, theyre all getting canned if they keep playing to not to lose, the only chance they have is to go with the kids and hope they explode, if they don't they get canned, if they do they might survive, if they go with the vets, they get canned either way.

It was the same thing with Chuck. If you don't want to develop the guy then trade him now. At least get the trade value rather than squandering the talent. This shit is just so f***ing dumb.

 

[Cole Caulifield]

To me he looks a lot like Lars Eller. Something is missing for him to become something more and I'm not even sure what. Will he find that something ? We will see, but I'm not confident.

 

[schnapshot]

To me he looks a lot like Lars Eller. Something is missing for him to become something more and I'm not even sure what. Will he find that something ? We will see, but I'm not confident.

He worries me to be honest.

 

[Mrb1p]

To me he looks a lot like Lars Eller. Something is missing for him to become something more and I'm not even sure what. Will he find that something ? We will see, but I'm not confident.

When you can't figure out what a player is missing to become something maybe you should try and find that something, if you can't maybe he's not actually missing anything.

 

[morhilane]

He started the year super well because Toffoli looked like Ovechkin against the Canucks, Armia played the game of his life, and Perry came out playing great. Of course KK helped those guys out too, but it was clear as day that those guys were boosting his totals more than he was. KK was also getting close to 14 min a night on average. You are also kind of contradicting yourself. If Julien basically threatened him and forced him to simplify his game, then how do you explain his playoff performance and great start to the year? p/60 is not a good stat at all because it claims that players could perform better with more ice time without taking into consideration the tougher competition they face.

Only two of KK's points are tied to Toffoli. A lots of Toffoli's production against the Canucks comes from shorthanded goals and the PP where he doesn't play with KK. Toffoli had awesome chemistry with Armia when both were hot (they played together in the PK), not so much with KK in 5v5 where they only managed elite possession stats and not much else. KK has better chemistry with Armia in 5v5. Just like KK had better chemistry with Perry. I'm not saying Toffoli is bad, his style just works better with Drouin/Suzuki types I think.

KK avg TOI in the first 10 games was 13:43, but that's boasted by the first two games being above 15 minutes + another 15 minutes game. The 7 other games were all below 14 minutes, lowest TOI was 11:45. Maybe I should have rounded up and written 12-14 minutes instead. After the Ottawa game, he played 10:34 minutes...but I think someone warned Julien because since that game, he's been getting above 13 minutes constantly.

Julien asked KK's to simplify his game to play multiple times, he mentioned in in media scrums over the years. A few weeks ago, Julien said to the media he told the entire team to simplify their games. KK did a few fancy things early in this season, he stopped after a few games. The timeframe match with his TOI going down....

KK wasn't playing a complex game in the Bubble. Danault called the game of Lekh and Byron simple after he was put with them for a bit. Those two (Lekh/Byron) were the linemates KK played the most with.

KK's success in the Bubble is based on him being a bulldozer who managed to keep possession of the puck, denied zone entries high in the d-zone/neutral zone and entered the o-zone via controlled entries instead of dumping. That looks like Ducharme's playstyle going by the style changes these last two games. Julien "safe" playstyle is passing the puck to the wingers who enter the zone near the board which force them to dump&chase when pressured. KK is better when he does the controlled entry into the 0-zone (and feel confident, confidence is super important for KK). The Bulldozer part was tamed by the refs, Habs are denied physicality, he's not the only one in the team affected by that.

I find the opposition excuse for the pts/60 stats to not reflect how teams are made and on ice events. The bottom 6 is usually more defensive than the top lines. Some coaches still use shutdown 3rd line you now.

His shooting percentage is on him, he takes forever to get his shot off.

And why do you think his shot take forever to take off? It's all confidence. His shooting percentage was at 10% last year and 40% in the Bubble. He was at 4% a few games ago when he clearly had no confidence.

KK gets confidence by playing lots of minutes and feeling he has the coach's confidence. Julien gave him neither.

That's a poor excuse. If Suzuki can be much better than anyone in the bottom 6 last year, so can KK. KK isn't even the best player on his line. Those guys aren't holding KK back. Many young players in the league have their linemates changed and it doesn't excuse their performance either.

So CJ wanted Suzuki to be a 3rd liner too right? In fact, Suzuki showed more offensive creativity than KK, but he's getting rewarded for it, not benched like how you are claiming. I don't consider Suzuki a generational talent by any means.

Suzuki ended up in the team because he was better than the scraps we had to make a 4th line. He rose in the line-up because of injuries and showing he made a better center than Domi. Then Julien started to trust him and his confidence rose and that's it.

KK has the same production in the bottom 6 this year than Suzuki had last year in the same time frame, while playing a harder position and being better defensively. If you think Suzuki was playing better last year when he was on the bottom 6, you are wrong. You just like his playstyle better.

 

[Cole Caulifield]

When you can't figure out what a player is missing to become something maybe you should try and find that something, if you can't maybe he's not actually missing anything.

I don't pretend to be a genius mastermind able to fix hockey players with a quick look. It's actually hard sometimes to tell why a player can't become a star player. It can be multiple factors not adding up to the sum total of what is needed to be a star player. And it can be stuff that is not immediately visible such as consistency, desire to be the best, character issues, etc. Not saying that those are problematic with Kotkaniemi, just giving an example.

What I do know is that the longer it takes for a player to breakout.. the less likely it becomes for that player to become a star. Late bloomers exist but they're not common. Kotkaniemi was very very young in his first season. And perhaps not training properly in between the first and second season gave him some problems in his sophomore season. But I was really expecting to see more progress in his 3rd season. I'm not throwing the towel but ... it's worrying for sure.