I don't see how they get things in order for camp in less than a month. Never bet against Bettman but I definitely have my doubts.
I hope they start sooner than later but I also hope they start after the WJC so we get to see some serious talent in that tournament. The longer they delay though, the more Bettman will ask for a higher Escrow. I think Bettman and the owners are pushing for a flat cap for no more than two seasons so they can have a higher cap after that and teams are not so screwed in that department. NHLPA has to open their eyes on that. 50/50 revenue... pay me now or pay them later. If they get paid now with a lower escrow... that prolongs the flat cap!
Numbers I have gathered to try to dig into this situation to understand more... This article talks about a few things and it falls in line with the numbers I have been looking at. NHL is looking for an additional $300M in savings. NHL seeking additional deferment on player salaries, raise on escrow caps
* The $81.5M cap is based on $5.09B of revenue. The actual salaries for the next year is tracking to be $2.33B (min). Multiple that by two for the 50/50 split and we are around $4.66B. That's good news cause like I said, the $81.5M cap is based on $5.09B of revenue. That's about a $400M+ cushion but when you talk about ticket revenue/month... that cushion is gone in one month if there are no fans. If 50% of revenue is tickets that's about $391M/month (5.09B x 50% / 6.5 months). Another way to look at it is per/game. $5.09B x 50% / 2542 total games = $1M/game of ticket revenue (on average). So that's how much is at play for each game if no fans are in the seats
* If the Escrow is capped at 20% for next season and dropping to 6% in years 4, 5, 6 of the new CBA.... 20% escrow is about $500M.
* A quick calculation indicates this.... $400M of fluff between actual salaries vs AAV ($81.5M cap based on $5.09B of revenue) and an extra $500M in escrow brings the savings to about $1B. Fans in the seats for a normal season represents about $2.5B of revenue. So if that happens, I see the NHLPA having to defer $1.5B to future seasons where the cap does not grow or they mess with the escrow even more.
* NHLPA has to realize that the 50/50 revenue split formula can take 2 years or 4 years to even out... depending on what they agree on Escrow for this season and next. I say go high cause if they go low... the flat cap will be a nightmare for several seasons! Any player becoming UFA will get a huge pay cut. Those who already have contracts are fine but that's selfish if they let others drown due to timing of when they become UFA.