Player Discussion Jeff Skinner

[joshjull]

I agree with prior posters that E. Kane likely set the floor for Skinner's next contract, but I don't think it will be Kucherov-like money.

Skinner, Ovechkin, Paternak, Landeskog, Matthews are all scoring goals at unsustainable shooting percentages.

Skinner is a 30-40 goal scorer with Eichel as a linemate once his shooting percentage drops back to earth. He's a 0.75ppg career scorer. He'll likely have his best NHL year to date (or close to it) if he and his linemates stay healthy. I project him to 41 goals this season, +4/-3, assuming all 82 games played.

I think the Sabres will have a good case to not overpay.

Wake me closer to the TDL. I just want to enjoy the ride for the winter months.

I’m very curious to see how this Skinner/Eichel combo plays out over the course of a season. We really don’t have a template to work off of to predict it. What I mean but that is Skinner has never played with a center of Jack’s caliber, not even close. Also Jack has never played with a winger like Skinner, who is a high end goal scorer who lives around the crease.

Prior to becoming a Sabre the bulk of Skinner’s goal production was driven primarily by him. That’s no longer the case with Jack as his center. I agree that Skinner’s current 5v5 shooting% of 19.05% is unsustainable. But how far “back to earth” does it fall? His career average before this season was 10% for a frame of reference. Does it drop to 15% his career high during his rookie season? Or maybe the 12.62% of of the 16-17 season?

They seem to mesh well in large part to jack’s ability to keep getting pucks on or near the net wth shot volume or passes. Skinner is almost always there to pounce on loose pucks or finish off a passing play.

I’m also curious to see how long Jack’s career low shooting% of 4.55% stays there. Just like Skinner’s coming back to earth Jack’s should head north at some point as well. Which should help that line sustain their production as things move to “normal” so to speak.

 

[1972]

I surprised how well Skinner and Eichel have adapted playing together. I don’t think it would work this seemlessly. I thought both would be to puck dominant.

 

[Chainshot]

Those four "no" votes are worth a chuckle at this point.

 

[UnleashRasmus]

To think Carolina gave this kid away for a 2nd, 3rd and Cliff Pu is astounding. He's been everything you could possibly want and more. This is the deal that will keep Botterill smiling all season. Along with the steady play of Sheary. I am still fine with the deal for O'Reilly because the team is doing better without him than with him.

 

[old kummelweck]

Those four "no" votes are worth a chuckle at this point.

I was shocked how overwhelmingly we all agreed. It's rare.

 

[Chainshot]

To think Carolina gave this kid away for a 2nd, 3rd and Cliff Pu is astounding. He's been everything you could possibly want and more. This is the deal that will keep Botterill smiling all season. Along with the steady play of Sheary. I am still fine with the deal for O'Reilly because the team is doing better without him than with him.

They were hurt by his no movement clause. He got to pick destination and that almost always suppresses value.

 

[joshjull]

They were hurt by his no movement clause. He got to pick destination and that almost always suppresses value.

True but you could still argue they gave him away by deciding they needed to move on from him. Its the arguement used by many to criticize the ROR Trade. It certainly applies here

 

[Chainshot]

True but you could still argue they gave him away by deciding they needed to move on from him. Its the arguement used by many to criticize the ROR Trade. It certainly applies here

O'Reilly had no such clause. There was not limiting factor to where he could go.

 

[Flash20]

Put a 48 on his jersey already

 

[Aladyyn]

They were hurt by his no movement clause. He got to pick destination and that almost always suppresses value.

Didn't Skinner say something about Buffalo being the only team they even asked him about wrt his NMC?

 

[SnuggaRUDE]

O'Reilly had no such clause. There was not limiting factor to where he could go.

I think he meant that Carolina culturally wanted to move Skinner out.

 

[joshjull]

O'Reilly had no such clause. There was not limiting factor to where he could go.

That’s not what I meant. The Canes didn’t have to trade Skinner but felt they needed to thus putting themselves in the situation of getting little for him.



But one could very much argue the Canes getting peanuts for him was a self inflicted wound due to their decision that they needed to move on from him. Which has some parallels to the ROR situation. Not that the situations are exactly the same.

 

[26CornerBlitz]

 

[Aladyyn]

Skinner has his 11th ESG. He is simply one of the best esg scorers in the entire league and that can not be valued enough.

11 ESG in 18 games. The guy that he pretty much directly replaced in the top 6 RoR scored 11,12 and 9 ESGs his 3 years in Buffalo. 32 ESG in 3 seasons. Jeff Skinner has 11 in 18 games. He has already surpassed RoRs 17-18 ESGs, matched his 16-17 esg totals and is a single goal away from his 15-16 ESG totals.

Ror is a great player but Skinner is an elite 5v5 scorer. Even strength scoring has been our Achilles heel for years. Skinner is the cure.

Skinner must be kept at all costs. The last time we had a 30 goal scorer it was 2011-2012 and it was Jeff's recent winger linemate who did it. If you go nearly 8 years in between 30 goal scorers then you quite simply have to do whatever it takes to keep Skinner. He is special. Skinner and Eichel can be our new Briere and Drury.

FYI, ROR has been more productive at 5on5 than Skinner this season.

 

[brian_griffin]

I’m very curious to see how this Skinner/Eichel combo plays out over the course of a season. We really don’t have a template to work off of to predict it. What I mean but that is Skinner has never played with a center of Jack’s caliber, not even close. Also Jack has never played with a winger like Skinner, who is a high end goal scorer who lives around the crease.

Prior to becoming a Sabre the bulk of Skinner’s goal production was driven primarily by him. That’s no longer the case with Jack as his center. I agree that Skinner’s current 5v5 shooting% of 19.05% is unsustainable. But how far “back to earth” does it fall? His career average before this season was 10% for a frame of reference. Does it drop to 15% his career high during his rookie season? Or maybe the 12.62% of of the 16-17 season?

They seem to mesh well in large part to jack’s ability to keep getting pucks on or near the net wth shot volume or passes. Skinner is almost always there to pounce on loose pucks or finish off a passing play.

I’m also curious to see how long Jack’s career low shooting% of 4.55% stays there. Just like Skinner’s coming back to earth Jack’s should head north at some point as well. Which should help that line sustain their production as things move to “normal” so to speak.

All fair points.

Jack's shooting % rising is a reasonable expectation too, but he's already being paid for that potential.

I'm just saying (I know you're not disagreeing) that many of the folks clamoring to "sign him now at any cost" are failing - perhaps willingly - to realize his shooting percentage is unsustainable for this season, let alone 7 or 8 years, and it is on the order of 2x his career average (as you note). Even sustaining a shooting percentage at 1.5x his career average with a quality caliber center like Eichel seems more than likely an exception, and not the norm.

By all means, re-sign / extend him if he truly wants to be in BUF. But doing so now could potentially be the textbook case of buying high.

<looks around for Jame to chime in, realizes that's not gonna happen>

 

[dotcommunism]

That’s not what I meant. The Canes didn’t have to trade Skinner but felt they needed to thus putting themselves in the situation of getting little for him.



But one could very much argue the Canes getting peanuts for him was a self inflicted wound due to their decision that they needed to move on from him. Which has some parallels to the ROR situation. Not that the situations are exactly the same.

The only real difference is that the Hurricanes were obligated to comply with Skinner's no-trade protection whereas the Sabres had no such obligation to have the acquiring team pay ROR's bonus.

 

[Doohickie]

I agree that Skinner’s current 5v5 shooting% of 19.05% is unsustainable. But how far “back to earth” does it fall?

Any drop-off in Skinner's shot% will likely be balanced by an increase in Eichel's as he recovers to his career 10% level from his current 5.8%.

Right now though, Jack is doing great at creating scoring chances that are finished by Skinner. It's something he hasn't had before. He used to try to do it all himself; he's not doing that now. I think as the season wears on if Skins drops off Jack will be more inclined to "play selfish" and take it to the net himself and his goal scoring rate will increase.

My real hope is that the two of them will be able to maximize their goal scoring as a pair... maybe 80 goals between them... maybe more eventually?

 

[Buffaloed]

Didn't Skinner say something about Buffalo being the only team they even asked him about wrt his NMC?

That's right.
You can revisit Waddell's reasoning here Carolina Hurricanes trade Jeff Skinner to Buffalo Sabres

While potential deals came and went over the offseason, none were close enough to take to Skinner for approval, and while the Hurricanes were holding out for a first-round pick, the Sabres are expected to struggle next season, which means their second-round pick is likely to come quickly after the first round.

I don't think they were going to get a better offer.

“The market was very slim as to places he could actually go, with the (salary) cap and everything else,” Waddell said.

There may have been a better offer at the trade deadline, but the return could have been less or even nothing. Skinner could have simply refused any trade.
Wasn't Regier criticized for dealing Vanek before the deadline?

 

[La Cosa Nostra]

FYI, ROR has been more productive at 5on5 than Skinner this season.

Uh huh, according to what /60? Skinner has 11 esg. Ror has 12 esp. One plays nearly 21 minutes a night, the other 17. One is on a current playoff squad the other a last place team. Sad that the Blues are so terrible wasting the best 20 game stretch of RoRs career.

 

[Howie Hodge]

Cliff Pu off to a slow start with The Charlotte Checkers, but is +2. Very early yet, so not reading too much into it....

23

*

Cliff Pu

RW

CHA

10

0

1

1

2

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[Reddawg]

Cliff Pu off to a slow start with The Charlotte Checkers, but is +2. Very early yet, so not reading too much into it....

23

*

Cliff Pu

RW

CHA

10

0

1

1

2

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

About the same situation as Asplund for us...I know I certainly expected more sooner.

 

[Howie Hodge]

About the same situation as Asplund for us...I know I certainly expected more sooner.

I have gone to a couple Amerks games. Asplund looks decent positionally, and seems to have hockey sense. He is not yet fully engaged in the games at the NA Pro level.

Until he does, I can't really gauge his potential, skill wise.

 

[26CornerBlitz]

11-15: Sabres' Forward Jeff Skinner on WGR with Howard and Jeremy (14:30)

 

[Flash20]

Man skinner is just a breath of fresh air so the question is who’s going to be our drury trade ? Lol we got Danny back

 

[old kummelweck]

Yet another ROR pissing match... lovely.