Player Discussion Jeff Skinner

[TehDoak]

Ya, he actually should.

Kane: 595 GP, 193 G, 176 A
Skinner: 599 GP 218 G, 182 A

Over an 82 game season for their career, on average:

Kane scores 26 goals, 24 Assists, 50 pts
Skinner scores 30 goals, 25 assists, 55 pts

Kane provides a physical presence and kill penalties. Skinner does not.

I won't argue that Skinner is a better offensive player than Kane, he is. But, if we are only looking on the ice, Kane is a much more well rounded player and brings a lot more to the table. Sure there are off ice issues as well, which is why we moved Kane rather than sign him.

But the idea of paying Skinner more than:

Stone, Taresenko, Kunetzov, Johansen, or Kessel is sheer lunacy. Skinner has never been an elite level player. Not only would be we overpaying him for whatever peak years he has left, he'd be a bobby ryan level albatross contract when he slows down.

 

[Yatzhee]

Skinner is more likely to be a 30g/50pt per season guy over the long term and not the 57g/86pt guy that his current rate projects to over an entire season.

How much is a 30g/50pt winger worth to you on a UFA deal?

This is actually subjective, as is the rumored want from Skinner. But I do lean to a similar line of thinking.
The core of his future projection comes down to 3 facets, to me in any event.

1. Can he keep 75% or better of his speed in years 5 thru 8? Barring injury, I believe he can.
2. He is primarily an eye / hand coordination scorer. I see no reason for that skill set to diminish.
3. Most important of all, the chemistry with Jack. Actually, I don't think it's entirely chemistry, Skinner is an excellent finisher, Jack is an excellent feeder.
This Is critical, can Eichel continue to feed Skinner 5 to 8 years from now when Eichel will be 26 to 28 yrs old and Skinner will be 33 to 35? Once again, I'm in the yes category.

Given the salary cap, 3 to 4 years may be at or near 84 to 86 million a season, 8.5 for a top line winger seems very reasonable.

 

[5 Minute Major]

Kane: 595 GP, 193 G, 176 A
Skinner: 599 GP 218 G, 182 A

Over an 82 game season for their career, on average:

Kane scores 26 goals, 24 Assists, 50 pts
Skinner scores 30 goals, 25 assists, 55 pts

Kane provides a physical presence and kill penalties. Skinner does not.

I won't argue that Skinner is a better offensive player than Kane, he is. But, if we are only looking on the ice, Kane is a much more well rounded player and brings a lot more to the table. Sure there are off ice issues as well, which is why we moved Kane rather than sign him.

But the idea of paying Skinner more than:

Stone, Taresenko, Kunetzov, Johansen, or Kessel is sheer lunacy. Skinner has never been an elite level player. Not only would be we overpaying him for whatever peak years he has left, he'd be a bobby ryan level albatross contract when he slows down.

Will he slow down?

He has a lot of Briere to him if you ask me and I can see his game translating into his early to mid 30’s.

 

[old kummelweck]

At least the price is set.

Botterill must be very pleased, but I wonder if he expected this production? This gives him options, but whether it fits into the budget of a team that will need to sign Dahlin, Mittelstadt, and possibly another high-end offensive player in the next few years remains to be seen.

 

[Beerz]

Whites secret Twitter source is pretty horrible so I'm not worried too much

 

[Jim Bob]

Kane: 595 GP, 193 G, 176 A
Skinner: 599 GP 218 G, 182 A

Over an 82 game season for their career, on average:

Kane scores 26 goals, 24 Assists, 50 pts
Skinner scores 30 goals, 25 assists, 55 pts

Kane provides a physical presence and kill penalties. Skinner does not.

I won't argue that Skinner is a better offensive player than Kane, he is. But, if we are only looking on the ice, Kane is a much more well rounded player and brings a lot more to the table. Sure there are off ice issues as well, which is why we moved Kane rather than sign him.

But the idea of paying Skinner more than:

Stone, Taresenko, Kunetzov, Johansen, or Kessel is sheer lunacy. Skinner has never been an elite level player. Not only would be we overpaying him for whatever peak years he has left, he'd be a bobby ryan level albatross contract when he slows down.

The JvR and EKane deals from this past summer should be the comparables for Skinner, IMO.

Another interesting twist is what if the Sabres acquire Stone at the TDL...

 

[Beerz]

The JvR and EKane deals from this past summer should be the comparables for Skinner, IMO.

Another interesting twist is what if the Sabres acquire Stone at the TDL...

Pretty unlikely Sens will move a player of that caliber in divison

 

[Jim Bob]

Pretty unlikely Sens will move a player of that caliber in divison

If they are sellers at the deadline, I doubt they care where Stone and Duchene go as rentals.

 

[Sabre the Win]

It’s begins.

This is how negotiating works, Skinner starts high, Sabres start low and they meet in the middle... usually.

If Skinner wants to be close to Toronto then he will come down in price. If we are contenders and not pretenders that will also sweeten the deal.

I see Skinner at 7.5 to 8 million, more than your average 50 point winger and deservedly so, hes way better than Kane.

 

[Sabre the Win]

If they are sellers at the deadline, I doubt they care where Stone and Duchene go as rentals.

They cared enough to throw a clause into the Karlsson trade to help keep him from coming back to the East.

 

[dasaybz]

Kane: 595 GP, 193 G, 176 A
Skinner: 599 GP 218 G, 182 A

Over an 82 game season for their career, on average:

Kane scores 26 goals, 24 Assists, 50 pts
Skinner scores 30 goals, 25 assists, 55 pts

Kane provides a physical presence and kill penalties. Skinner does not.

I won't argue that Skinner is a better offensive player than Kane, he is. But, if we are only looking on the ice, Kane is a much more well rounded player and brings a lot more to the table. Sure there are off ice issues as well, which is why we moved Kane rather than sign him.

But the idea of paying Skinner more than:

Stone, Taresenko, Kunetzov, Johansen, or Kessel is sheer lunacy. Skinner has never been an elite level player. Not only would be we overpaying him for whatever peak years he has left, he'd be a bobby ryan level albatross contract when he slows down.

Kane is a complete bonehead and has an extremely low IQ. Skinner has shown more in 20 games, than Kane ever showed here. Sure, numbers are very similar, but I take Skinner over Kane any day of the week. I think anything over 8 is pushing it though. I'll do 8x7 before the deadline, but not more than that ... I think.
Here's the thing though, we haven't really seen Skinner without Eichel, so is this a product of just Jack? I would hate to sign a guy when he's going through such a torrid streak without seeing what he's like when he cools off. He's a notoriously streaky player, and I kinda want to see him on a cold streak first ... hope that makes some sense?

 

[HaNotsri]

So if Skinner isn’t signing for 8 million and we’re approaching the deadline what would you do?
Assuming we are in the 1st wildcard slot with a two point margin from missing the playoffs.

 

[Jim Bob]

They cared enough to throw a clause into the Karlsson trade to help keep him from coming back to the East.

That was for an entire season and not a TDL rental situation.

 

[dortt]

So if Skinner isn’t signing for 8 million and we’re approaching the deadline what would you do?
Assuming we are in the 1st wildcard slot with a two point margin from missing the playoffs.

depends upon our situation

If we are leading the division, you keep Skinner. Even if we lose him for nothing after the season. The year becomes a go for it year in that scenario

If we're battling for a wildcard or have fallen out of the playoffs, you would dump him

 

[Jim Bob]

So if Skinner isn’t signing for 8 million and we’re approaching the deadline what would you do?
Assuming we are in the 1st wildcard slot with a two point margin from missing the playoffs.

Keep him and deal with it after the season.

If they are in a playoff spot and sell him at the deadline...

 

[TehDoak]

So if Skinner isn’t signing for 8 million and we’re approaching the deadline what would you do?
Assuming we are in the 1st wildcard slot with a two point margin from missing the playoffs.

Unless it comes at a severe discount (let's say he'd be willing to sign on a short term deal for under 7M per), going to go into the offseason and see where we are at.

Out of playoffs (let's say 5+ points) Trade him

In the playoffs or within striking distance, keep him and try to get this team some playoff experience. Revisit the contract situation in the summer.

 

[Critical13]

Would you guys be happy with something around 8 million?

 

[CaptPantalones]

If it takes going close to 9, get it done. The chemistry with Jack is there and it's time to show a serious commitment. You have the kids and future picks to fill holes if need be

 

[CaptPantalones]

Would you guys be happy with something around 8 million?

We get him at 8 I'm doing naked backflips down chippewa

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

Would you guys be happy with something around 8 million?

That would be an absolute maximum

 

[Sabre the Win]

That was for an entire season and not a TDL rental situation.

What does it matter what the situation was? It clearly shows that Ottawa doesnt trade within division let alone the conference.

 

[Sabre Dance]

If it takes going close to 9, get it done. The chemistry with Jack is there and it's time to show a serious commitment. You have the kids and future picks to fill holes if need be

We're talking 1 million difference which is a solid 4th line player. Sure those players are important but I would rather lock Skinner up and worry about filling the 4th line later.

Ultimately he'll get somewhere around 8-8.5 million.

 

[Jim Bob]

Would you guys be happy with something around 8 million?

My reactions at the various AAVs:

Less than $7M per:

$7M-$8M per:

$8M-9M per:

$9M+ per:

 

[Jim Bob]

What does it matter what the situation was? It clearly shows that Ottawa doesnt trade within division let alone the conference.

History of NHL trades by the Ottawa Senators - NHL Trade Tracker

Did you see what they did at the deadline last season?

 

[old kummelweck]

So if Skinner isn’t signing for 8 million and we’re approaching the deadline what would you do?
Assuming we are in the 1st wildcard slot with a two point margin from missing the playoffs.

Firmly in playoffs? You keep him with the expectation you lose him.
Wildcard hunt with 4 or 5 teams? You move him, but don't expect top return due to his NMC.