Player Discussion Jeff Skinner - Part II

[La Cosa Nostra]

Half of Skinners contract is finished before he even turns 31.

Those first 4 years I expect 140-160 goals. The last 4 80-100.

People need to stop thinking we deserve a discount. We are paying open market price and are pretty much forced to because we suck, haven't been in the playoffs in almost a decade and because Skinner would get this contract easily in free agency.

How many guys in their mid 20s coming off a 40 goal season even hit free agency? Next to none. Pay him. Front load it and leave the last few years with less $ then AAV to make it tradeable to a floor team.

 

[toomuchsauce]

If we figure out the PP stuff... (this is even strength)

got dam, pay this dude

 

[AustonsNostrils]

 

[joshjull]

 

[CatsforReinhart]

This is where I stand. Don't want to pay 9m but letting him walk is worse.

 

[Goathead]

It’s sounds like he’s getting paid and it’s gonna be by us so...

A) he better be stapled to Eichel
B) Botts needs to go get a puck retrieval guy for that line

If we’re gonna be paying him 9+ we better be maximizing his usage.

 

[mouser]

Skinner is already in elite goal scoring lists, so it's not like he's not capable. Isn't he top 3 in ES goals the last 3 years, top 7 in like the last 6 years?

And a lot of those names I listed who haven’t achieved 3x 40 goal seasons are elite goal scorers as well. My point remains I think you’re being overly optimistic.

 

[HogtownSabresfan]

Nah, I stopped reading Harrington.

Get a Buffalo News subscription to read stuff rehashed from TSN and other outlets and to get trolled by Harrington.

 

[mouser]

Half of Skinners contract is finished before he even turns 31.

Those first 4 years I expect 140-160 goals. The last 4 80-100.

People need to stop thinking we deserve a discount. We are paying open market price and are pretty much forced to because we suck, haven't been in the playoffs in almost a decade and because Skinner would get this contract easily in free agency.

How many guys in their mid 20s coming off a 40 goal season even hit free agency? Next to none. Pay him. Front load it and leave the last few years with less $ then AAV to make it tradeable to a floor team.

Skinner’s career average is 30 goals per 82 games. He just had the highest shooting % in his career this past season. And you expect him to average 35-40 goals for the next four seasons? Again seems overly optimistic to me.

 

[toomuchsauce]

Skinner’s career average is 30 goals per 82 games. He just had the highest shooting % in his career this past season. And you expect him to average 35-40 goals for the next four seasons? Again seems overly optimistic to me.

Are you...are you trying to suggest that is bad?

 

[AustonsNostrils]

Skinner’s career average is 30 goals per 82 games. He just had the highest shooting % in his career this past season. And you expect him to average 35-40 goals for the next four seasons? Again seems overly optimistic to me.

Goal scoring in the league is markedly up and Skinner is playing with an elite playmaker in Eichel so yes it's reasonable to expect he'll better his historical average.

 

[mouser]

Are you...are you trying to suggest that is bad?

Is there anywhere in my post I said that was bad? I questioned using 35-40 goals as a expectation for him going forward.

Honestly I think a more fair expectation is Skinner averaging 30 goals over the first half of the contract.

 

[Chainshot]

Is there anywhere in my post I said that was bad? I questioned using 35-40 goals as a expectation for him going forward.

Indeed. It seems to be a self-fulfilling prophecy to be upset at possible production that falls outside the norms for a player. I'd be happy with him hitting his career average for 4-ish years of this deal before the pain begins. And there will be pain.

 

[Fezzy126]

Definitely maybe I think today ........ or maybe end of the week....... or maybe push back?

It was the same crap a year ago with Sam: "Super Secret Sabres Guy says it's either a long term deal or a short term bridge, I'm told today could be the day! (but if not some time in the next few weeks probably)"

 

[toomuchsauce]

Is there anywhere in my post I said that was bad? I questioned using 35-40 goals as a expectation for him going forward.

Fair. But, would you not pay the reported price tag for an average of 30 goals per 82 games?

 

[mouser]

Fair. But, would you not pay the reported price tag for an average of 30 goals per 82 games?

If Skinner was also putting up ~40 assists and had some respectable 2-way play I’d feel much better about the rumored 8x $9m.

 

[Willgamesh]

Please just sign this guy. He's an animal.

 

[GOALOFSSON]

Skinner’s career average is 30 goals per 82 games. He just had the highest shooting % in his career this past season. And you expect him to average 35-40 goals for the next four seasons? Again seems overly optimistic to me.

His career totals (including shooting%) are tainted by his injury seasons. That still doesn't address the lack of offense on the teams he played for.

 

[vcv]

Ok, I think I got accurate data here.

I took a look at all wingers (there's a few in here that may primarily play center, but have played wing) who signed contracts for 6 years or longer since 2007 whose cap hit in year 1 was 8.5% of the cap or more.

A bit of a mixed bag. Some obvious ones to just ignore because of sheer stupidity (Kovalchuk, Hossa, Parise), or because they're too fresh (Nylander, Kane).

I think for the next few years Skinner could produce on a similar path as Voracek, Tarasenko.

Hope he doesn't produce like Bobby Ryan, Jordan Eberle, Ales Hemsky.

 

[toomuchsauce]

If Skinner was also putting up ~40 assists and had some respectable 2-way play I’d feel much better about the rumored 8x $9m.

Okay, fair enough. I am firmly in the "pay for the 5v5 goal scoring" camp.

 

[vcv]

A look at all players since 2005 who signed 5+ year contracts and scored 35+ goals the year before the contract went into effect. I'm using some fuzzy math on when the contract went into effect and all that, but should be close.

That's some better company. Heatley, Marchard, Vanek, Benn, Gagne...

- Rick Nash's first 3 years after his contract were 33g 34a, 32g 34a, 30g 29a
- Hartnell and Eriksson were < 8% of cap when signed, but Eriksson did follow up with 71, 73, 71 points in following 3 years.
- Cammalleri did drop off a bit but also seemed to have some injuries. James Neal as well.
- Phil Kessel's following 3 years were 30gg 25a, 32g 32a, 37g 45a
- JvR's contract is too new.
- Bobby Ryan did follow up with 34g 37a, 31g 26a

I think generally we should expect to see 3-4 good years of production unless there are injuries getting in the way. After that, who knows.

DO IT.

 

[gallagt01]

Thanks for bringing this data to the table, @vcv

 

[vcv]

Thanks for bringing this data to the table, @vcv

I wanted to do more legitimate data analysis with visualizations, but I got lazy and I suck at the viz part. But it's at least a rough look at comparable signings in terms of cap hit and goals.

 

[La Cosa Nostra]

Skinner’s career average is 30 goals per 82 games. He just had the highest shooting % in his career this past season. And you expect him to average 35-40 goals for the next four seasons? Again seems overly optimistic to me.

He had 40 goals yet also had a severe ankle injury which was a huge factor for his 1 in 22 stretch.

And yes I do expect him to score 35-40 the next 4. These are the rest of his 20s and age 30 season. He should not experience any skating drop off whatsoever in these 4 years. His whole game is using his speed and skating about being in the right place at the right time. If he plays with Eichel 35-40 is a lock. Especially with the 18+ mins he'll get.

If it wasn't for his mediocrity on the PP he would be a perennial 40+ goal scorer. If we can ever return to having a great PP who knows he could threaten 50 in a season.

Lastly, for a guy who scored 40 goals this past year and should have had far more, who has hit 30+ multiple times playing with terrible linemates and never having a true 1C to play with expecting 35-40 is farfetched? That is only 5-10 above his career average. If the Sabres didn't think he was capable of 35-40 per I doubt they would even bother extending him.

The Sabres are not paying Jeff Skinner to score 30 goals a season. They expect him to continue the ~40 goals per. It will just be more spread out now instead of 30 by the all star break.

If Skinner was also putting up ~40 assists and had some respectable 2-way play I’d feel much better about the rumored 8x $9m.

If Skinner was a 30-40 goal, 70-80 point winger with a 2 way game he would be getting 9.5 mil. Because that is describing Mark Stone.

Stone is obviously a better player but Skinner is a better goal scorer. Which is what the Sabres need. We already have 2 forwards capable of 40+ assists a season. We have not had a 30 goal scorer before Skinner since 2011-2012.

 

[Goathead]

I was in the camp of 7.5 - 8 or let him walk. That was because I was thinking about cap and a cup. But I will take a couple playoffs at this point. Sign him to the 9 f*** it. Drop our deadweight contracts and we’ll have plenty of cap to fill out the roster. I don’t care about the cup anymore just get to the f***ing playoffs.