Player Discussion Jeff Skinner - Part II

[Chainshot]

That really sounds like something you should get checked out, tbh.

Nah, I stopped reading Harrington.

 

[Genny Screamer]

I'm perfectly fine/comfortable with this expected outcome:

Goals:
Year 1/27: 40-45
Year 2/28: 40-45
Year 3/29 35-40
Year 4/30: 30-35
Year 5/31: 20-25
Year 6/32: 15-20
Year 7/33: 10-15
Year 8:/34 10-15

200-240 goals over the course of the contract
Average: 25-30 goals per year over contract

I would be ok with this output too. I'm just curious, but in years 6-8 what role do you see Skinner playing? Do you see him as a 2nd or 3rd line complementary player? I actually think his production can be higher. It's interesting to note that Brad Marchand just turned 31 and had the best year of his career with 36 goals and 100 points.

 

[joshjull]

Definitely maybe I think today ........ or maybe end of the week....... or maybe push back?

 

[Zman5778]

I would be ok with this output too. I'm just curious, but in years 6-8 what role do you see Skinner playing?

Veteran leader, PP specialist....able to fill top 6 role if necessary. Think Pommers this year.

 

[Zman5778]

Expecting a player to best his career high 2x past the age of 27?

I think it's eminently possible. This year he actually played with top talent and produced top results. Maybe the next two years the entire team doesn't tank the bed for 6 weeks.

And Skinner is the type of player who should age very well, possibly even get better into his year 30/31 season.

 

[Jame]

I would be ok with this output too. I'm just curious, but in years 6-8 what role do you see Skinner playing? Do you see him as a 2nd or 3rd line complementary player? I actually think his production can be higher. It's interesting to note that Brad Marchand just turned 31 and had the best year of his career with 36 goals and 100 points.

I haven't a clue.... he could go full Marty St Louis and still be scoring. I'm not betting on anything that far down the line, since there are too many factors.

I just intended the breakdown to be conservative in goal production on the back half. I have him averaging under 20 goals per year over the course of the back half of the contract. I think that's ultra conservative.

 

[Aladyyn]

I'm perfectly fine/comfortable with this expected outcome:

Goals:
Year 1/27: 40-45
Year 2/28: 40-45
Year 3/29 35-40
Year 4/30: 30-35
Year 5/31: 20-25
Year 6/32: 15-20
Year 7/33: 10-15
Year 8:/34 10-15

200-240 goals over the course of the contract
Average: 25-30 goals per year over contract

It's crazy that we're talking about a guy who could realistically end the contract with 500 career goals and debating whether he's worth it.

 

[Aladyyn]

Expecting a player to best his career high 2x past the age of 27?

Jeff Skinner's average ice-time in Carolina: 17:06
Jeff Skinner's average ice-time in Buffalo: 18:31

 

[Jame]

Expecting a player to best his career high 2x past the age of 27?

Do you think Eichel has peaked?
Do you think Coaching matters?

Kane just went from 34 and 27 goals in the last 2 years, to 44 this year at 30 years old....
Tavares just scored 47.... career high... at 28
Crosby scored the 2nd highest of his career (44)... at 29
Marchand career high 39, at 29

Should I look for more examples for you to dismiss?

I don't think it's crazy to expect the next 2-3 years to be the best of Skinner's career (goals/points wise).

 

[Jame]

Veteran leader, PP specialist....able to fill top 6 role if necessary. Think Pommers this year.

And that's like the worst case scenario too... Pommer was 36 years old this year.... 36!!!
We are worried about Skinner's performance in his age 32-33 year old seasons...

 

[Aladyyn]

Do you think Eichel has peaked?
Do you think Coaching matters?

Kane just went from 34 and 27 goals in the last 2 years, to 44 this year at 30 years old....
Tavares just scored 47.... career high... at 28
Crosby scored the 2nd highest of his career (44)... at 29
Marchand career high 39, at 29

Should I look for more examples for you to dismiss?

I don't think it's crazy to expect the next 2-3 years to be the best of Skinner's career (goals/points wise).

Patrice Bergeron just randomly figured out he can score more at 32. Totally what happened. Nothing to do with a change in role and linemates. Nope. Those things have no impact on season totals.

 

[valet]

Skinner screams one of those players that gets better w age to me. I really wouldn't mind giving him 9 x 8 if that's what it took

 

[GameMisconduct]

The fiery anus is every day.

That really sounds like something you should get checked out, tbh.

Nah, I stopped reading Harrington.

Learning about this result makes me really happy I've generally always avoided Harrington as much as possible.

 

[Yatzhee]

Am hearing what Jeremy White is hearing, done deal, announced soon.

 

[sabregoat]

Am hearing what Jeremy White is hearing, done deal, announced soon.

That’s because you are listening to Jeremy white

 

[Sabre Dance]

I'm perfectly fine/comfortable with this expected outcome:

Goals:
Year 1/27: 40-45
Year 2/28: 40-45
Year 3/29 35-40
Year 4/30: 30-35
Year 5/31: 20-25
Year 6/32: 15-20
Year 7/33: 10-15
Year 8:/34 10-15

200-240 goals over the course of the contract
Average: 25-30 goals per year over contract

The hope is we win in the 1st 5 years of the contract and develop well enough to replace his goals with much cheaper young players the final 3.

 

[SabresSharks]

I'm just baffled how a guy that was traded for Pu, 2nd, 3rd and 6th round pick turns into a 72 million dollar player one year later.

I'm sorry, it just doesn't add up. If he is so valuable around the league, he would have fetched a lot more in a trade. 3 month rentals got more in a trade than Skinner did.

During the trade negotiations, it was widely known how picky Skinner was with the team he would have accepted to go to for one stupid year. Now he is looking at committing somewhere for 7 years and that pickiness is just gone and he will go to any team that offers him the most?

I know the narrative is out there that we have no leverage, but what leverage does Skinner have? The dude seems to value being close to home a lot and there aren't that many teams that can offer the proximity and has the cap space.

Skinner wanting to be close to home in TO limited his options and trade value. Leafs aren't looking for that type of player. Buffalo is less than a 2 hour drive, Detroit 5 hours, Montreal and Ottawa 6.

That gives Botts leverage, but not enough to lowball the guy. 40-goal scorers in their prime don't come cheap these days.

 

[EichHart]

8.5 and I'm happy.

 

[EichHart]

Expecting a player to best his career high 2x past the age of 27?

With an actual NHL coach I expect 40-45 next year from skinner, 40 the next.

 

[jc17]

Skinner's goal production could easily go either way the next couple years.

Saying he could decline because of his age isn't a ridiculous statement. It's a valid point. Saying his career high production could sustain because of better coaching and teammates is also valid.

Can we stop acting like every counter-argument to our own opinions are the stupidest thing ever?

 

[mouser]

With an actual NHL coach I expect 40-45 next year from skinner, 40 the next.

That still seems like a lot to ask. Since the 2005 lockout the players who have scored 40+ goals three or more seasons:
Marian Gaborik (3)
Danny Heatley (3)
Ilya Kovalchuk (5)
Evgeni Malkin (3)
Alex Ovechkin (10)
Eric Staal (3)
Steven Stamkos (5)

Some notable players without three+ 40 goal seasons over that period:
Daniel Alfredsson
Sidney Crosby
Marian Hossa
Jarome Iginla
Patrick Kane
Vinny Lecavalier
Rick Nash
Corey Perry
Teemu Selanne
Martin St Louis
John Tavares

 

[GellMann]

That still seems like a lot to ask. Since the 2005 lockout the players who have scored 40+ goals three or more seasons:
Marian Gaborik (3)
Danny Heatley (3)
Ilya Kovalchuk (5)
Evgeni Malkin (3)
Alex Ovechkin (10)
Eric Staal (3)
Steven Stamkos (5)

Some notable players without three+ 40 goal seasons over that period:
Daniel Alfredsson
Sidney Crosby
Marian Hossa
Jarome Iginla
Patrick Kane
Vinny Lecavalier
Rick Nash
Corey Perry
Teemu Selanne
Martin St Louis
John Tavares

Skinner is already in elite goal scoring lists, so it's not like he's not capable. Isn't he top 3 in ES goals the last 3 years, top 7 in like the last 6 years?

 

[Aladyyn]

If we figure out the PP stuff... (this is even strength)

 

[old kummelweck]

If we figure out the PP stuff... (this is even strength)

What are you showing us? This is since the lockout?

 

[Aladyyn]

What are you showing us? This is since the lockout?

Even strength goal rates since we have the data (2007-08 season)