Player Discussion Jeff Skinner - Part II

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Reddawg

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“We might have hard decisions in six years so we shouldn’t make an easy one now”

That’s what half this thread is.
And it’s all the same people who would be screaming about Botterill’s ineffectiveness if he allowed Skinner to walk rather than inking the deal.
 

Archie Lee

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Apr 13, 2018
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Every team in the league has at least one or two bad contracts; some have a lot more. One thing you can say about the two teams in the final is that they have limited the damage when it comes to bad deals. On balance, they have a lot of team-friendly contracts.

The Sabres are coming out of a period where they had a lot of bad contracts. They still have 3 or 4 but as of now only have Okposo after the coming season.

There are good examples from this past year of teams who on the surface looked to have taken a step backward from a player personnel perspective only to actually improve.

The world is not black and white to me. Getting Skinner signed will be a win for this off-season and most likely for the next few years. I'll be happy if he is signed.

Skinner at anything above $7.5-8 million is an overpayment though and good teams generally avoid overpaying players.
 
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Rasmus CacOlainen

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Every team in the league has at least one or two bad contracts; some have a lot more. One thing you can say about the two teams in the final is that they have limited the damage when it comes to bad deals. On balance, they have a lot of team-friendly contracts.

The Sabres are coming out of a period where they had a lot of bad contracts. They still have 3 or 4 but as of now only have Okposo after the coming season.

There are good examples from this past year of teams who on the surface looked to have taken a step backward from a player personnel perspective only to actually improve.

The world is not black and white to me. Getting Skinner signed will be a win for this off-season and most likely for the next few years. I'll be happy if he is signed.

Skinner at anything above $7.5-8 million is an overpayment though and good teams generally avoid overpaying players.
What were the bad contracts at the time the recent cup winners became cup winners?
 

Archie Lee

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I believe he's questioning your statement that every team has one or two bad contracts.

I'll moderate it slightly: Every team has one or two bad contracts or, at least, one or two they would prefer not to have.

Either way, the point is to avoid bad contracts and not to accumulate them.
 

GameMisconduct

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That's basically adding +8 to his +/-. A very real skill that has very real impact on games.
I'm with you on +/- not being a particularly meaningful stat, but I'm pretty sure the takeaway there is that Skinner is pretty damn good at drawing penalities, thus generating power plays, which I think most would consider as having a real impact on games.
 

GellMann

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I'm with you on +/- not being a particularly meaningful stat, but I'm pretty sure the takeaway there is that Skinner is pretty damn good at drawing penalities, thus generating power plays, which I think most would consider as having a real impact on games.
I think you missed what I'm saying - he doesn't only generate goals by scoring, he does by being a net positive in penalty differential by a huge margin. Assuming a 20% power play, he creates 8 goals for his team by simply drawing penalties, whereas some players who are negative in this regard will cost their team goals in ways that don't show up in counting stats. So if you wanted to put that number into a counting stat, you could add +8 to his plus-minus.

Of course, you'd need to subtract the penalties taken from it, not sure how many he takes. But a guy like Evander Kane, if he had identical stats, would probably be a net negative in that regard. Or Kyle Okposo haha
 
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GameMisconduct

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I think you missed what I'm saying - he doesn't only generate goals by scoring, he does by being a net positive in penalty differential by a huge margin. Assuming a 20% power play, he creates 8 goals for his team by simply drawing penalties, whereas some players who are negative in this regard will cost their team goals in ways that don't show up in counting stats. So if you wanted to put that number into a counting stat, you could add +8 to his plus-minus.

Of course, you'd need to subtract the penalties taken from it, not sure how many he takes. But a guy like Evander Kane, if he had identical stats, would probably be a net negative in that regard. Or Kyle Okposo haha
We're on the same page with respect to the impact, it's the use of +/- to capture it that's throwing me. Usually when people talk about +/- using and talk about it as meaningful there's an implied sarcasm.

I think plus/minus is not an ideal way to describe the impact we're talking about here (vs penalties drawn--can't cite penalty differential without the missing stats you mention, though it's pretty reasonable to assume it looks good) as +/- reflects individual outcomes when the player is on the ice relative to team scoring outcomes, and doesn't really have anything to do directly with how many penalties a player draws or his differential.
 
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tsujimoto74

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What were the bad contracts on the teams that won a cup in the last 6-7 years in the years they won the cup?

2017-18: Brooks Orpik
2016-17: Chris Kunitz, Carl Hagelin, Mark Streit
2015-16: Hagelin and Kunitz (again) + Pascal Dupuis
2014-15: Brad Richards, Bryan Bickell, Johnny Oduya
2013-14: Marian Gabroik, Dustin Brown

Every team has some ugly contracts.
 

Rasmus CacOlainen

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2017-18: Brooks Orpik
2016-17: Chris Kunitz, Carl Hagelin, Mark Streit
2015-16: Hagelin and Kunitz (again) + Pascal Dupuis
2014-15: Brad Richards, Bryan Bickell, Johnny Oduya
2013-14: Marian Gabroik, Dustin Brown

Every team has some ugly contracts.
2017-2018 - Orpik - agree
2016-17: Kunitz is nowhere near the scale we are talking about here (4mil vs 9 mil); Hagelin was a useful player on again 4 mil contract; Streit - I agree;
2015-16: See above on Hagelin; Kunitz was fine that season, especially for his contract; Dupuis - agree
2014-15: Richards was fine at the time; Bickell was fine at the time on a 4 mil contract; Oduya was fine and on under 4mil;
2013-14: Gaborik was fine at the time and so was Brown

So a grand total of 1 per year in 17/18, 16/17, 15/16 and none in 14/15 and 13/14. Tell me more how we can have 2 bad contracts and still be cup winners when this proposed contract turns on its face and becomes ugly in 4-5 years time. Do people here really trust this franchise to not have any other bad contracts? lol.
 

Sabre the Win

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Why dont owners owners make deals with certain players over payment/team AAV?

Example, Skinner wanted 9 million a season for 8 years, yet you want to limit that AAV so you say we will pay you 7.5 yearly and pay you a signing bonus of 12 million which equals his net pay, he gets 12 million up front and then 7.5 for the rest of the season or is that illegal?

I mean if I was a billionaire and committed to winning I would be doing this to all my star players so Eichels cap hit would be 8 and Skinner 7.5 and then continue to make a stacked team all fitting under the salary cap.
 

Rasmus CacOlainen

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Why dont owners owners make deals with certain players over payment/team AAV?

Example, Skinner wanted 9 million a season for 8 years, yet you want to limit that AAV so you say we will pay you 7.5 yearly and pay you a signing bonus of 12 million which equals his net pay, he gets 12 million up front and then 7.5 for the rest of the season or is that illegal?

I mean if I was a billionaire and committed to winning I would be doing this to all my star players so Eichels cap hit would be 8 and Skinner 7.5 and then continue to make a stacked team all fitting under the salary cap.
Of course its illegal. Thats why
 

sabremike

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2017-2018 - Orpik - agree
2016-17: Kunitz is nowhere near the scale we are talking about here (4mil vs 9 mil); Hagelin was a useful player on again 4 mil contract; Streit - I agree;
2015-16: See above on Hagelin; Kunitz was fine that season, especially for his contract; Dupuis - agree
2014-15: Richards was fine at the time; Bickell was fine at the time on a 4 mil contract; Oduya was fine and on under 4mil;
2013-14: Gaborik was fine at the time and so was Brown

So a grand total of 1 per year in 17/18, 16/17, 15/16 and none in 14/15 and 13/14. Tell me more how we can have 2 bad contracts and still be cup winners when this proposed contract turns on its face and becomes ugly in 4-5 years time. Do people here really trust this franchise to not have any other bad contracts? lol.
If you let Jeff leave we have a grand total of TWO real NHL quality forwards on our entire roster. We are very likely looking at a 60 point season and a bottom 3 finish. If in the season after that we had a 20 point improvement we would still fail to make to make the playoffs by close to 20 points. Then those two forwards who will have completely wasted 6-7 years of their careers will look to force their way out of town. Our organization is hemorrhaging blood and the wound needs to be fixed NOW. We need to become a credible NHL team again, that is the priority. I'm sick of every season wondering why I should even care because the team is such a total abomination that even the idea of just competing for a playoff spot is a total fantasy. The BS needs to stop.
 

GameMisconduct

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We look really shouldn't look at overpayment in raw dollars and especially not in terms of the total/yearly contract amount.

How much of Skinner's new contract ends up being overpayment? It obviously depends on the final $$, but let's say his 'correctly paid' amount based on performance is 7m but he gets 9m. The raw amount of the contract, isn't the overpayment. 2m of what we pay him is overpayment (less than 25%).

Compare that with what we paid players like Sobotka, Bogo, Hunwick, Scandella, Moulson, etc. How much of their salaries are overpayment relative to their performance? More than 25% and in several cases more than the raw dollar amount. In aggregate, far, far more than whatever we might overpay Skinner.

Also, how much do the contributions of those players really drive/contribute to team success?

We waste a lot more $$ in salary inefficiency at the bottom and periphery of the roster. And it's when the total amount of relative overpayment vs performance on a team gets unbalanced that matters, not any one player.

Overpaying a moderate amount relative to performance for your elite players that drive your team is far less harmful than overpaying the dross/borderline players on your roster.

I'm not saying pay whatever someone wants without trying to be as smart as possible and using leverage (on that point though, consider Sam's bridge), but a small overpayment in relative terms to keep your best/elite players is not how you get yourself in the danger zone. Especially given how few of those players we have.
 

tsujimoto74

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May 28, 2012
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2017-2018 - Orpik - agree
2016-17: Kunitz is nowhere near the scale we are talking about here (4mil vs 9 mil); Hagelin was a useful player on again 4 mil contract; Streit - I agree;
2015-16: See above on Hagelin; Kunitz was fine that season, especially for his contract; Dupuis - agree
2014-15: Richards was fine at the time; Bickell was fine at the time on a 4 mil contract; Oduya was fine and on under 4mil;
2013-14: Gaborik was fine at the time and so was Brown

So a grand total of 1 per year in 17/18, 16/17, 15/16 and none in 14/15 and 13/14. Tell me more how we can have 2 bad contracts and still be cup winners when this proposed contract turns on its face and becomes ugly in 4-5 years time. Do people here really trust this franchise to not have any other bad contracts? lol.

Brown scored 27 points and had a $5.875 AAV. Richards had 37 points on a $6.66M cap hit. That is definitely not "fine." Both were being paid like top 6 producers but not producing like them. Hagelin was overpaid for his role, even if the role wasn't as big as the one we're expecting Skinner to fill.

More importantly, the time frame we're worrying about on Skinner's contract is the back end of it, which is years away. Lots of things can change between then and now that would help Buffalo manage that portion of the deal. In the mean time, having a guy we can count on to score 30-40 goals would be a big help to our team, and the goal should be to make the most of the prime years he has left (especially with Eichel likely entering his prime years and Dahlin on an ELC).
 

Jame

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Sep 4, 2002
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We look really shouldn't look at overpayment in raw dollars and especially not in terms of the total/yearly contract amount.

How much of Skinner's new contract ends up being overpayment? It obviously depends on the final $$, but let's say his 'correctly paid' amount based on performance is 7m but he gets 9m. The raw amount of the contract, isn't the overpayment. 2m of what we pay him is overpayment (less than 25%).

Compare that with what we paid players like Sobotka, Bogo, Hunwick, Scandella, Moulson, etc. How much of their salaries are overpayment relative to their performance? More than 25% and in several cases more than the raw dollar amount. In aggregate, far, far more than whatever we might overpay Skinner.

Also, how much do the contributions of those players really drive/contribute to team success?

We waste a lot more $$ in salary inefficiency at the bottom and periphery of the roster. And it's when the total amount of relative overpayment vs performance on a team gets unbalanced that matters, not any one player.

Overpaying a moderate amount relative to performance for your elite players that drive your team is far less harmful than overpaying the dross/borderline players on your roster.

I'm not saying pay whatever someone wants without trying to be as smart as possible and using leverage (on that point though, consider Sam's bridge), but a small overpayment in relative terms to keep your best/elite players is not how you get yourself in the danger zone. Especially given how few of those players we have.

Exactly.
If Skinner costs 9 per then we have to get better at not wasting space on Hunwicks and Sobotkas... and it will be infnitely easier to NOT sign Hunwick/Sobotka contracts, then it will be to replace 40 f***ing goals...
 
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