Player Discussion Jeff Skinner - Part II

[BuzzKillington90]

I would give Botts a ton of kudos if he could get Skinner to sign a 4 year / 38 million / 9.5 per deal with a full NMC.

Assumption is that Skinner REALLY wants to stay and the "close to home" narrative is a huge factor.

Skinner gets Stone per year money, but Buffalo gets protection from the scary back end of a long term deal.

So assume, that 7 year / 7.0 per is on the table from numerous teams, this is the Evander Kane deal, the 4 year deal here is only 11 million less in guaranteed money, and he'd have a crack at free agency at 30 to easily make up that 11 million (and likely significantly more).

Even if there is a 7 year / 8.5 deal out there... for 59.5 million. He' be leaving 21.5 million on table with 3 years to make it up. Is it realistic to expect that in 4 years, at 30 years old, he could pull down a 3 yr / 7.o per contract?

Let's do this cap genius!

So youll give botterill credit for a situation that wont happen based on what we know skinner wants....

Makes sense!

 

[Jame]

So youll give botterill credit for a situation that wont happen based on what we know skinner wants....

Makes sense!

Yes, I would give him credit for negotiating skills. You know, where skinner gets the location he wants and most of the money, and Buffalo gets some protection via term.

 

[TehDoak]

I still think the most likely scenario is Skinner goes to market before July 1, and loops back and signs with Buffalo when he's underwhelmed by his market value.

Unless Buffalo is willing to get into stupid money with him (aka give him the Stone deal), its stupid for him NOT to go to market at this point. See if there is a team he'd both be interested in playing for AND be willing to overpay him. He isn't going to suffer a long term injury off the ice. If Buffalo has a 8 year, 56M-60M deal on the table for him, I doubt he's going to see a better deal than that. I'd personally rather get Nyqvist on a 6 year, 36-39M deal and see if you can get Johansson on a 4 year, 16-18M deal.

 

[sabremike]

I still think the most likely scenario is Skinner goes to market before July 1, and loops back and signs with Buffalo when he's underwhelmed by his market value.

Unless Buffalo is willing to get into stupid money with him (aka give him the Stone deal), its stupid for him NOT to go to market at this point. See if there is a team he'd both be interested in playing for AND be willing to overpay him. He isn't going to suffer a long term injury off the ice. If Buffalo has a 8 year, 56M-60M deal on the table for him, I doubt he's going to see a better deal than that. I'd personally rather get Nyqvist on a 6 year, 36-39M deal and see if you can get Johansson on a 4 year, 16-18M deal.

Some guy on Twitter who does this every year did a list of what they expect every UFA to end up getting and let's just say if you think we are getting Jeff at a discount you may not want to look at that.

 

[Der Jaeger]

Some guy on Twitter who does this every year did a list of what they expect every UFA to end up getting and let's just say if you think we are getting Jeff at a discount you may not want to look at that.

link?

 

[sabremike]

link?

The Tweet was on the Flyers board and I'll be damned if I can find it. Had Jeff at a 9.2 million cap hit.

 

[Royal Thunder]

There's no way he's a 9 million dollar player. Not even close frankly, that's Stone money. I wouldn't pay him that. He's much closer to Evander Kane who got 7.

 

[Havok89]

The Tweet was on the Flyers board and I'll be damned if I can find it. Had Jeff at a 9.2 million cap hit.

8 years???

 

[Goathead]

The Tweet was on the Flyers board and I'll be damned if I can find it. Had Jeff at a 9.2 million cap hit.

If 9.2 is even rumoured Botts should be fired.

 

[sabremike]

8 years???

IIRC yes.

 

[Snippit]

If it's 9 I'll take 5 years lol

 

[MagnumForce2]

If 9.2 is even rumoured Botts should be fired.

If thats whatall it takes to get Botts fired...write Skinner the check

 

[Aladyyn]

There's no way he's a 9 million dollar player. Not even close frankly, that's Stone money. I wouldn't pay him that. He's much closer to Evander Kane who got 7.

He's closer to Stone than Kane.

 

[Royal Thunder]

He's closer to Stone than Kane.

Based on what? These one line quips speaking in absoluteisms don't make it true...

Career PPG
Stone .84
Skinner .67
Kane .63

Single season peak PPG
Stone 1.07
Skinner .80
Kane .75

Good defensively?
Stone Yes
Skinner No
Kane No

 

[Samsonite23]

Based on what? These one line quips speaking in absoluteisms don't make it true...

Career PPG
Stone .84
Skinner .67
Kane .63

Single season peak PPG
Stone 1.07
Skinner .80
Kane .75

Good defensively?
Stone Yes
Skinner No
Kane No

Goals. Specifically ES goals.

And when compared to Kane, lack of boneheaded plays on a regular basis.

 

[Member 308457]

Fantasy take from Dobberhockey.com:

Jeff Skinner (Sell): Skinner managed to hit his ceiling again this season, matching his career high of 63 points. However, the sell-high window has closed, as entering free-agency, Skinner will get a raise, and it will be almost impossible for him to find a slot next to a better centre than Eichel. There’s nowhere to go but down after this productive season. Pass.

 

[1point21Gigawatts]

Fantasy take from Dobberhockey.com:

Jeff Skinner (Sell): Skinner managed to hit his ceiling again this season, matching his career high of 63 points. However, the sell-high window has closed, as entering free-agency, Skinner will get a raise, and it will be almost impossible for him to find a slot next to a better centre than Eichel. There’s nowhere to go but down after this productive season. Pass.

Yeah the last thing this team needs is to sign a 30+ goal scorer.

 

[debaser66]

He's closer to Stone than Kane.

He s a bit more worth than Kane
But nowhere near Stone

 

[itwasaforwardpass]

Yeah the last thing this team needs is to sign a 30+ goal scorer.

I don't see how the quote is relevant but it was from a fantasy hockey owners perspective, not the Sabres.

 

[1point21Gigawatts]

I don't see how the quote is relevant but it was from a fantasy hockey owners perspective, not the Sabres.

Yeah, even from a fantasy stand pint, it’s a silly concept.

 

[26CornerBlitz]

 

[Jim Bob]

Two months left...

 

[Montag DP]

Yeah, I don't see it happening. What incentive does Skinner have to sign before July 1?

 

[slip]

Yeah, I don't see it happening. What incentive does Skinner have to sign before July 1?

Other than a desperate GM willing to overpay to keep his job beyond next season, I'd say none.

 

[Chainshot]

I don’t know why I remain hopeful that both sides see the mutual benefit and get something done that is beneficial to both. I know that’s probably crazy talk coming from me, but my gut reaction remains that he’ll be signed and it won’t be completely terrible as a contract.

Edit: there are no metrics to back this up, no information from anyone, just a gut reaction.