Player Discussion Jeff Skinner - Part II

[Jim Bob]

The thresholds we place on somebody's projected contract are likely already obsolete given that the cap continues to grow and that better players who signed at the top of the salary structure a few years ago have been outpaced by it. (I.e.; MacKinnon)

Yeah, mistakes are made. And the Sabres offers have been near disastrous in this category (KO, Moulson, Ville, etc.) but folks who say "they'd never pay that for player x" usually find out that somebody will and does. And that simply establishes a new threshold standard.

I'm less worried about the dollar amount being discussed for Skinner than I am the term. That's where boat anchors get attached get attached to franchises. (Evidence = Okposo's and Moulson's contracts.)

Term and a likely NMC are the two things that concern me the most.

Big money plus 7 or 8 years and a NMC is a nightmare waiting to happen. Especially if he falls back to the 25-30 goals per year he had in Carolina.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Term and a likely NMC are the two things that concern me the most.

Big money plus 7 or 8 years and a NMC is a nightmare waiting to happen. Especially if he falls back to the 25-30 goals per year he had in Carolina.

He had 37 just two seasons ago in Carolina. You can't count on 40 every year from Skinner IMO, but he's going to at least average 30+ goals / 82 games for the foreseeable future IMO. He works his ass off in the off-season and he's just too good of a goal scorer not to. Look across his career and you'll conclude that this 40G season really isn't that much of an anomaly.

His 4 worst years were 3 in which he sustained a concussion during the season and last year, where to me, it looked like he checked out and he's been very healthy the last 4 seasons. He averages 30G/82G for his career and 33/82G for years where he didn't sustain a concussion. His 82G pace was 38+ in 3 seasons. A lot of that was 5v5 scoring in Carolina as well.

He was one of my favorite players in Carolina, but I'm not upset they moved on (and wasn't upset at the time of the trade if you go back and look). Even though as a Canes fan, I don't want more competition in the East, I hope the Sabres re-sign him. He was a good fit there and I still like to watch him play. My wife was born in Buffalo and most of her family lives in Rochester or the Finger lakes region and are Sabres fans.

	GP	Goals	82G pace
2010-11	82	31	31.0
2011-12	64	20	25.6	Concussion
2012-13	42	13	25.4	Concussion
2013-14	71	33	38.1
2014-15	77	18	19.2	Concussion
2015-16	82	28	28.0
2016-17	79	37	38.4
2017-18	82	24	24.0
2018-19	82	40	40.0
Career	661	244	30.3
w/o Conc	478	193	33.1

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[Jim Bob]

He had 37 just two seasons ago in Carolina. You can't count on 40 every year from Skinner IMO, but he's going to at least average 30+ goals / 82 games for the foreseeable future IMO. He works his ass off in the off-season and he's just too good of a goal scorer not to. Look across his career and you'll conclude that this 40G season really isn't that much of an anomaly.

His 4 worst years were 3 in which he sustained a concussion during the season and last year, where to me, it looked like he checked out and he's been very healthy the last 4 seasons. He averages 30G/82G for his career and 33/82G for years where he didn't sustain a concussion. His 82G pace was 38+ in 3 seasons. A lot of that was 5v5 scoring in Carolina as well.

He was one of my favorite players in Carolina, but I'm not upset they moved on (and wasn't upset at the time of the trade if you go back and look). Even though as a Canes fan, I don't want more competition in the East, I hope the Sabres re-sign him. He was a good fit there and I still like to watch him play. My wife was born in Buffalo and most of her family lives in Rochester or the Finger lakes region and are Sabres fans.

	GP	Goals	82G pace
2010-11	82	31	31.0
2011-12	64	20	25.6	Concussion
2012-13	42	13	25.4	Concussion
2013-14	71	33	38.1
2014-15	77	18	19.2	Concussion
2015-16	82	28	28.0
2016-17	79	37	38.4
2017-18	82	24	24.0
2018-19	82	40	40.0
Career	661	244	30.3
w/o Conc	478	193	33.1

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Jeff Skinner Stats | Hockey-Reference.com

Skinner has averaged 0.37 g/gp, 0.30 a/gp, and 0.67 pts/gp over the course of his 9 year NHL career.

That averages out to an average 82 game season of 30 goals, 25 assists, and 55 pts.

So, for every 35 goal season, he is likely to have a 25 goal season.

I am concerned that people will see the 40 goal year that Skinner had this past season and believe that that is his new normal and that his future performance won't regress to the mean that he has had over the course of his entire career.

Add in the fact that Skinner set a new career high in Shooting % (14.9%) and that is another warning sign that paying him like that is a new normal will lead to him being overpaid in the future.

I get why people say that the Sabres have to sign Skinner and that if it happens, it will take giving him a contract that will have him be overpaid for the production he will bring in the future.

I just believe that Skinner will score at roughly 30g/82 gp and maybe a little below that over the course of his next contract. So, I would prefer that he gets paid more like a guy that will produce 30g & 55pts per 82 gp and not like a guy who will score 40g/82 gp or the guys that produce 70-80 pts/gp and people like to use as comparables because Skinner has similar 5 on 5 goalscoring numbers to those other players.

 

[GOALOFSSON]

Jeff Skinner Stats | Hockey-Reference.com

Skinner has averaged 0.37 g/gp, 0.30 a/gp, and 0.67 pts/gp over the course of his 9 year NHL career.

That averages out to an average 82 game season of 30 goals, 25 assists, and 55 pts.

So, for every 35 goal season, he is likely to have a 25 goal season.

I am concerned that people will see the 40 goal year that Skinner had this past season and believe that that is his new normal and that his future performance won't regress to the mean that he has had over the course of his entire career.

Add in the fact that Skinner set a new career high in Shooting % (14.9%) and that is another warning sign that paying him like that is a new normal will lead to him being overpaid in the future.

I get why people say that the Sabres have to sign Skinner and that if it happens, it will take giving him a contract that will have him be overpaid for the production he will bring in the future.

I just believe that Skinner will score at roughly 30g/82 gp and maybe a little below that over the course of his next contract. So, I would prefer that he gets paid more like a guy that will produce 30g & 55pts per 82 gp and not like a guy who will score 40g/82 gp or the guys that produce 70-80 pts/gp and people like to use as comparables because Skinner has similar 5 on 5 goalscoring numbers to those other players.

I'm concerned you're just lumping all the numbers together and ignoring context, primarily his former team (inb4 conference finals)

 

[Aladyyn]

I consider per game stats to be barely more useful than season totals (aka not very useful at all) so let's see how his one Buffalo stacks up against his career in terms of even strength rates.

G/60: 1.37, 2nd best of his career right after 2016-17 when he had 1.38

oops accidentally pressed post lemme finish this

P/60: 2.1, 3rd best in his career. Hardly an outlier when he's been between 1.8 and 2.2 for most of his career (10/11, 12/13, 14/15 being the outliers, with the low ones being concussion seasons as said above).

iCF/60: 16.05, lowest of his career. Do we put this on his linemate quality? Doesn't need to shoot as much since he's played with other offensive creators? Maybe wishful thinking.

ixG/60: 0.95, lowest of his career. I guess the narrative that Eichel helped him by creating better chances dies here. Then again, up until this season he was always between 1 and 1.15, remarkable consistency.

Sh%: 14.07, 2nd highest of his career. This has been all over the place for Skinner, not sure what we can surmise from that. He definitely outperformed expectations this year and we shouldn't bank on him being a 40 goal guy every year, that I agree with.

 

[Aladyyn]

I'm 99% sure there is a way to extract a lot more PP production from Skinner than he has put up over his career. That's one area where we can squeeze out some more value. Wish we still had Bob Woods...

 

[Fezzy126]

I'm 99% sure there is a way to extract a lot more PP production from Skinner than he has put up over his career. That's one area where we can squeeze out some more value. Wish we still had Bob Woods...

Hire Paul McFarland

 

[Jim Bob]

I'm concerned you're just lumping all the numbers together and ignoring context, primarily his former team (inb4 conference finals)

What context am I ignoring?

 

[UnleashRasmus]

It looks and feels like he's going to test the market. I have not ever seen someone so passive on getting a deal done from after the trade deadline (February 28th, through May 10th.). I'm not going to be surprised if he leaves completely.

 

[Heretic]

It looks and feels like he's going to test the market. I have not ever seen someone so passive on getting a deal done from after the trade deadline (February 28th, through May 10th.). I'm not going to be surprised if he leaves completely.

I'm going to assume he's waiting to see who the coach is too.

 

[OkimLom]

I'm going to assume he's waiting to see who the coach is too.

Unless he signs a 2 year deal, with the way the Sabres have had luck and operated, waiting for knowing who the coach is seems to be an unrewarding venture and one that doesnt seem "permanent". He waived his NMC to come to a team coached by Housley. I don't think the coach has ANYTHING to do with it.

 

[truthbluth]

5:15 ish

 

[MayDayMayDay]

This has taken too long for me to have any faith anymore that he's re-signing.

 

[HogtownSabresfan]

This has taken too long for me to have any faith anymore that he's re-signing.

It’s 99% sure that even if Sabres sign it will be after the window during which he can talk to other teams.

The Sabres have no leverage at this point unless they convince the offer from Buffalo could disappear as team chases other players.

With game injury risk gone, I’m waiting to talk to other teams if I’m Skinner. No brainer

 

[Heretic]

Unless he signs a 2 year deal, with the way the Sabres have had luck and operated, waiting for knowing who the coach is seems to be an unrewarding venture and one that doesnt seem "permanent". He waived his NMC to come to a team coached by Housley. I don't think the coach has ANYTHING to do with it.

I mean, yeah, he's primarily waiting to weigh the options in free agency, but I'm sure coach is something he wants to know too. Going to free agency is all a control thing. These guys probably don't care but the agents want them to do it and make them feel special and tell them to do it and sometimes it works and sometimes it's a waste of everybodys time. Who knows what'll happen.

 

[TehDoak]

Skinner would be silly not to go to market (at least go to the woo-ing period) at this point. He has zero to gain with signing with the sabres now.

What stinks from a Buffalo POV is that it's hard to make big moves at the draft when there's potential for a 7-8M contract being added. J-Botts will essentially need a Plan A and Plan B, based on what Skinner is doing.

I still think he signs here (probably 8 year, 7.5-8M deal).....but I do think he at least goes and sees who is interested.

 

[Fezzy126]

Skinner would be silly not to go to market (at least go to the woo-ing period) at this point. He has zero to gain with signing with the sabres now.

What stinks from a Buffalo POV is that it's hard to make big moves at the draft when there's potential for a 7-8M contract being added. J-Botts will essentially need a Plan A and Plan B, based on what Skinner is doing.

I still think he signs here (probably 8 year, 7.5-8M deal).....but I do think he at least goes and sees who is interested.

You kind of responded to your own statement. By waiting until free agency, Skinner is risking that the Sabres won't go with plan B and pull their offer off the table. If the Sabres pull their offer and the market proves to only be lukewarm, he's risking losing money and potentially the extra year of financial security.

I don't think that would happen and based on everything we're hearing I think he re-signs with the Sabres at some point, but there is some risk associated with waiting.

 

[Hellinator]

I believe Jack Eichel shut him down mid season and affected his goal production. One of two things happened. 1.) People were suggesting that he should shoot more because his own goal production was low at the time 2.) He was about to put Skinner's goal production to such high levels that a contract situation would be astronomical.

What we do know is that Jack started carrying the play and shooting more which his own goal production went up and Skinner's goal production went down. Whether he did that on his own or was asked to do it is anyone's guess, but I found it interesting at the end of the season when they wanted Skinner to get his 40 goal mark they certainly made an effort for him to get it and it seemed a bit easy.

In past years I would say don't believe career highs in a contract year for a player but it certainly seemed that he could have had even better production than he did. They need to sign him even if it's based on higher production than his career average.

 

[itwasaforwardpass]

You kind of responded to your own statement. By waiting until free agency, Skinner is risking that the Sabres won't go with plan B and pull their offer off the table. If the Sabres pull their offer and the market proves to only be lukewarm, he's risking losing money and potentially the extra year of financial security.

I don't think that would happen and based on everything we're hearing I think he re-signs with the Sabres at some point, but there is some risk associated with waiting.

Skinner is going to get paid a whole lot by some team, whether it's by the Sabres or not.

The Sabres don't have a plausible plan B to acquire a talent like Skinner that wouldn't cost them giving up a lot of assets. Panarin or Duchene aren't coming here. We're a team that has been bottom of the league for years and hire and fire bad coaches every two years. It's only unique situations like Skinner that a guy of that talent with options would want to sign with a bad team.

I'm not trying to be completely negative. It's the same situation with any bad team, not just ours.

And I think theres a better than 50/50 chance he still signs here. It just may be more money, term, NMC than we'd like. Skinner has all the leverage.

 

[Fezzy126]

Skinner is going to get paid a whole lot by some team, whether it's by the Sabres or not.

The Sabres don't have a plausible plan B to acquire a talent like Skinner that wouldn't cost them giving up a lot of assets. Panarin or Duchene aren't coming here. We're a team that has been bottom of the league for years and hire and fire bad coaches every two years. It's only unique situations like Skinner that a guy of that talent with options would want to sign with a bad team.

I'm not trying to be completely negative. It's the same situation with any bad team, not just ours.

And I think theres a better than 50/50 chance he still signs here. It just may be more money, term, NMC than we'd like. Skinner has all the leverage.

Sure, that's possible. But what if he has a strong desire to sign here but his agent told him that this was the best way to maximize the offer from us? Then Botts stumbles across cheap trades for Zucker and Krieder at the draft, and signs Ferland in UFA. What if everyone is overestimating Skinner's market value, including his agent?

Of course this a TON of speculation, but my point is there is a a great deal of depth to this situation and it is a negotiation where both sides have things to gain and lose. It may not be as black and white as many are painting it. And bringing up our history is has nothing to do with anything here, the franchise's poor reputation only exists among our fans, I see no issues attracting talent here.

 

[itwasaforwardpass]

Sure, that's possible. But what if he has a strong desire to sign here but his agent told him that this was the best way to maximize the offer from us? Then Botts stumbles across cheap trades for Zucker and Krieder at the draft, and signs Ferland in UFA. What if everyone is overestimating Skinner's market value, including his agent?

Of course this a TON of speculation, but my point is there is a a great deal of depth to this situation and it is a negotiation where both sides have things to gain and lose. It may not be as black and white as many are painting it. And bringing up our history is has nothing to do with anything here, the franchise's poor reputation only exists among our fans, I see no issues attracting talent here.

Botterill should be looking for those kinds of moves in addition to signing Skinner, not one or the other. There's also dead weight that needs to be trades, waived or bought out if Botts is interested in improving this team.

I agree that many fans may have a lower opinion of our teams due to a Buffalo inferiority complex, but it's not hard for any player/person from the outside to see this organization has a lot to fix in roster and management. The results speak for themselves.

 

[wnysupport]

I believe Jack Eichel shut him down mid season and affected his goal production. One of two things happened. 1.) People were suggesting that he should shoot more because his own goal production was low at the time 2.) He was about to put Skinner's goal production to such high levels that a contract situation would be astronomical.

What we do know is that Jack started carrying the play and shooting more which his own goal production went up and Skinner's goal production went down. Whether he did that on his own or was asked to do it is anyone's guess, but I found it interesting at the end of the season when they wanted Skinner to get his 40 goal mark they certainly made an effort for him to get it and it seemed a bit easy.

In past years I would say don't believe career highs in a contract year for a player but it certainly seemed that he could have had even better production than he did. They need to sign him even if it's based on higher production than his career average.

Did you just say Eichel purposely (or was informed to by management/ownership) stunted Skinners goal scoring.......

Unless it was sarcasm

 

[Hellinator]

Yes, I implied a conspiracy theory or it was just the fact that Jack concentrated on scoring more and passing less which ultimately affected Skinner. Whether it was unintended consequences or not, Jack did change his game half way through the season. Even if you can't remember how that evolved throughout the season, you can still look at the results for both players. First half vs second half.

 

[hizzoner]

Overpaying for free agents is the only thing that Sabres have excelled at. Let him test the market. If someone wants to give him $8m plus nmv Clause for 7 years I suggest Sabres pass rather than up the ante.

 

[DatGuy]

It’s 99% sure that even if Sabres sign it will be after the window during which he can talk to other teams.

The Sabres have no leverage at this point unless they convince the offer from Buffalo could disappear as team chases other players.

With game injury risk gone, I’m waiting to talk to other teams if I’m Skinner. No brainer

You are correct, unless the sabres offer him something crazy, that no other team is willing to do, it would be silly for him not to get to free agency and test the market.