Player Discussion Jeff Skinner - Part II

[Jim Bob]

Agree.

I’ve said for awhile now that I think he’ll want and get ...
1. NMC/NTC of some sort
2. Full term of 7-8 years
3. 8-9 mil. per

Aaaand I can also picture after 4-5 years ... we regret giving him that contract

I think he will want $9-10M since he is on a 50 goal pace.

And I am expecting that he will get in the $8.5-9.5M range per on a 7 or 8 year deal.

 

[Icicle]

Can he sign an 8 year deal the day after the deadline, or does he have to wait until the end of the season, or June 1st? Or is he unable to sign for 8 after June 1st? I forget how these rules work.

 

[blackrock]

He can sign an 8-year deal any time after the deadline and before June 1:

"[A] Club may sign a Player to an SPC with a term of up to eight (8) years if that Player was on such Club's Reserve List as of and since the most recent Trade Deadline. With respect to potential Unrestricted Free
Agents only, the ability to re-sign a Player to an SPC of eight (8) years expires when the Player becomes an Unrestricted Free Agent."

NHL CBA § 50.8(b)(iv).

 

[old kummelweck]

So if they don't deal him and don't sign him, what would be peoples view of the trade?

 

[Tatanka]

So if they don't deal him and don't sign him, what would be peoples view of the trade?

Served its purpose for this year. Minimal price. Sub par asset management, but trading him sends the wrong signal.

 

[sufferer]

So if they don't deal him and don't sign him, what would be peoples view of the trade?

I'd still like the trade just for what he contributed during the winning streak alone. I doubt Pu and those late picks could ever provide that amount of enjoyment.

 

[OkimLom]

So if they don't deal him and don't sign him, what would be peoples view of the trade?

That it was a win of a trade for short term excitement, that it feels like a waste of a season for the longer term, and that Botts, not being able to move him or sign him, couldn't capitalize on a solid asset for the organization and let it go to waste.

 

[Reddawg]

So if they don't deal him and don't sign him, what would be peoples view of the trade?

I can't even calculate how unlikely this is.

 

[brian_griffin]

So if they don't deal him and don't sign him, what would be peoples view of the trade?

Five possible outcomes:
1. No trade, no re-sign, Sabres don't make 2019 playoffs.
2. No trade, no re-sign, make 2019 playoffs.
3. Trade (likely for top value), don't make 2019 playoffs. [May or may not re-sign in offseason.]
4. No trade, does re-sign, Sabres don't make 2019 playoffs.
5. No trade, does re-sign, Sabres make 2019 playoffs.

I eliminate the option where Skinner is traded at the deadline and the Sabres still make the 2019 playoffs, because that seems unlikely as of today. What team trades for Skinner at the deadline and sends BUF a package that helps the Sabres in the final 6 weeks to make the playoffs? Any playoff-sniffing team would keep those players and send picks / futures / roster filler back to BUF instead.

You posit Option #1, the worst outcome; all the others are miles better.
Skinner trade had far greater upside risk than downside risk. You make those every time you get the chance.

 

[truthbluth]

I used to think they were waiting for the deadline to do an 8 year deal, but since the Matthews contract, I wonder if Skinner’s camp is trying to figure out a shorter term so he can get 1 more payday. 4 years x $9, puts him at a 30, coming off 4 years in Jack’s wing, maybe he cashes in again? I don’t know and I think maybe neither do they.

 

[Sabresfansince1980]

Skinner is too old to hope for a second new contract in the future, that will pay him the same AAV as what he'll get now. I just hope a bunch of fans don't flood the board with panic posts when nothing happens with him before the TDL. That's a good sign that an 8 year deal is about to be announced within a few days/weeks.

 

[debaser66]

So if they don't deal him and don't sign him, what would be peoples view of the trade?

If he isnt signed he should be traded.
You can get more assets back than you invested.
Also I think he is not worth more than 9mil.

 

[Jim Bob]

Skinner is too old to hope for a second new contract in the future, that will pay him the same AAV as what he'll get now. I just hope a bunch of fans don't flood the board with panic posts when nothing happens with him before the TDL. That's a good sign that an 8 year deal is about to be announced within a few days/weeks.

I don't think age is as big a factor as the odds not being in his favor of having another 50 goal season in a contract year due to a shooting% that is far beyond his career average.

 

[old kummelweck]

I don't think age is as big a factor as the odds not being in his favor of having another 50 goal season in a contract year due to a shooting% that is far beyond his career average.

You think his season is an anomaly? 5 goals at nearly 20% shooting percentage is an outlier... but 35?

 

[Jim Bob]

You think his season is an anomaly? 5 goals at nearly 20% shooting percentage is an outlier... but 35?

Skinner's shooting% this season is 18.5%.

His career shooting% is 11.4%.

Prior to this season, his career best was 14.4% his rookie season.

Just like it has been a historically bad idea to trade a guy after a bad shooting season (like Skinner had last year at 8.7%), it is also been a historically bad idea to sign a guy to a long contract after a good shooting season and expecting it to be sustainable over the long term.

Just chart Skinner's shooting% by season:

10-11	14.4
11-12	9.5
12-13	8.2
13-14	12.0
14-15	7.7
15-16	10.9
16-17	13.2
17-18	8.7
18-19	18.5

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[Sabresfansince1980]

Skinner is in his try-hard season, so I certainly don't expect 50 goals to be the norm, but playing with Eichel is going to increase your HD chances for sure, hence a better sh%.

 

[Icicle]

Skinner's shooting% this season is 18.5%.

His career shooting% is 11.4%.

Prior to this season, his career best was 14.4% his rookie season.

Just like it has been a historically bad idea to trade a guy after a bad shooting season (like Skinner had last year at 8.7%), it is also been a historically bad idea to sign a guy to a long contract after a good shooting season and expecting it to be sustainable over the long term.

Just chart Skinner's shooting% by season:

10-11	14.4
11-12	9.5
12-13	8.2
13-14	12.0
14-15	7.7
15-16	10.9
16-17	13.2
17-18	8.7
18-19	18.5

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

We've been over this already. It's no surprise for a player like Skinner to have a statistical increase in shooting percentage when his center is upgraded from a 3rd liner who never scores to the elite Jack Eichel

 

[ZZamboni]

 

[tsujimoto74]

You think his season is an anomaly? 5 goals at nearly 20% shooting percentage is an outlier... but 35?

I don't think it a huge anomaly so much as it's Eichel. I remember seeing one of those shot heat maps showing that Skinner is shooting significantly more from premium scoring areas this season than in past ones. He never even had a good center in Carolina, much less an elite one.

Even ignoring the Eichel/shooting % bump, the guy is still a 26-year-old 4x 30G scorer. Those are never cheap.

 

[Willgamesh]

Skinner is in his try-hard season, so I certainly don't expect 50 goals to be the norm, but playing with Eichel is going to increase your HD chances for sure, hence a better sh%.

Shhh dont tell Jim Bob, Skinner would have the same sh% if he played with Sobotka as he does with Eichel.

 

[Duddy]

Shhh dont tell Jim Bob, Skinner would have the same sh% if he played with Sobotka as he does with Eichel.

Wtf do linemates have to do with Tage not scoring goals? His shots aren't blocked by his teammates or do Sobotkas psychic powers make his shots not go in? He just isn't good and has a lot of developing left to do.

 

[Willgamesh]

Wtf do linemates have to do with Tage not scoring goals? His shots aren't blocked by his teammates or do Sobotkas psychic powers make his shots not go in? He just isn't good and has a lot of developing left to do.

uhhhh you get more production playing with good players is it really that hard to accept? you have better scoring chances from jack eichel then you do from Sobotka or any other black hole on offense.
you come off really stupid trying to defend it. I never said anything about his development or that hes good.
Compare pommer with jack and skinner and without if you still cant see it idk what to tell you.

 

[GameMisconduct]

uhhhh you get more production playing with good players is it really that hard to accept? you have better scoring chances from jack eichel then you do from Sobotka or any other black hole on offense.
you come off really stupid trying to defend it. I never said anything about his development or that hes good.
Compare pommer with jack and skinner and without if you still cant see it idk what to tell you.

Tage and Poms don't play remotely similar games or score similar goals.

 

[Willgamesh]

Tage and Poms don't play remotely similar games or score similar goals.

Never said they did? Youre reaching for something. You cant just put words in my mouth. You really think Lalime was a better overall goalie then Hasek?

 

[26CornerBlitz]