Player Discussion Jeff Skinner - Part II

[Jim Bob]

Now we’re going with....... well the league will probably go up in scoring, so a 30 goal scorer won’t mean as much.

If a player was able to establish himself as 30 goal scorer when it was harder to score. Why wouldn’t he be able to score more than that when it’s easier to score? Why wouldn’t his baseline go up as well? That’s some odd logic on your part.

No, my point is that goalscoring is up leaguewide.

So, it would be expected that a guy that averaged 30g prior to this year to get a few more than that.

Ergo, if the increase in scoring continues for the foreseeable future, Skinner being a guy that is a 35g/60pt guy would likely put him in the same realm leaguewide as he was as a 30g/55pt guy previously.

The 16/17 season, Skinner was 6th in goals and 32nd in points.

The 17/18 season, Skinner was T-68th in goals and T-119th in points.

Also, he has hit 30 goals in 4 out of 9 NHL seasons. And 60 points in 3 out of 9 NHL seasons (I am expecting him to get there this year).

So, expecting him to be a 35g/60pt guy is optimistic given his history. And last year those numbers would be t-15th in goals and t-72nd in points.

At the end of the day, it comes down to how much is a winger that will likely be top 15-20 in goals and top 75-ish in points worth as a UFA?

$9M+ per seems rich for that kind of player.

 

[joshjull]

I can live with Skinner in the $8.0-8.5M range.

Skinner at $9M+ when he is likely to 60 point or less player over the course of the extension is something that just looks to me to be a deal that will be quite the anchor long before it's over.

Overpaying a guy based on one outlier season rarely ends well for the team signing the contract.

You’re being utterly disingenuous by looking at just points. His goal scoring in and of itself will elevate his value. You should know that.

Then you ignore Jack’s potential impact on his production. I’m not talking about what he’s doing now with him. But the idea that he won’t get paid for that as well. If you think he will be nothing other than a 30g 60pt player even with Jack. Then you’re saying Jack isn’t going to have any impact on Skinner’s production. Which would be absurd. It probably won’t be the 50 goal pace
of right now. But it’s not hard to imagine him as a 35-40 goal scorer.

Save the Sam spin as well. I wanted to see him signed to a 8yr deal and didn't have an issue when someone proposed 7mil per for him.

It’s amazing to watch a few posters talk themselves out of paying to keep an established 30g scorer. On a team that sucks at scoring and struggles to acquire players that do no less. Being stubborn about the extra 1-2mil per year you don’t feel he should get is a classic cutting off your nose to spite your face mentality.

 

[DJN21]

Now we’re going with....... well the league will probably go up in scoring, so a 30 goal scorer won’t mean as much.

If a player was able to establish himself as 30 goal scorer when it was harder to score. Why wouldn’t he be able to score more than that when it’s easier to score? Why wouldn’t his baseline go up as well? That’s some odd logic on your part.

we are talking about a one dimensional scorer going into his 30's on a proposed 8 year contract...shouldnt be hard to see the skepticism here...if he's already a one trick pony playing wing going into that age range and seeking that many years while scoring is inflated, and is playing with one of the best players in the game putting up career numbers I can absolutely make a case for reducing his term...

 

[Sabresfansince1980]

Skinner probably is playing with an extra level of effort due to being a contract year. What is Buffalo supposed to do about that? They need scoring and the city would burn if Botterill came out and said they didn't think he was worth X dollars, so they traded him just as the team was about to get over the hump. Botterill will have to overpay, just how much is the question.

 

[Jim Bob]

You’re being utterly disingenuous by looking at just points. His goal scoring in and of itself will elevate his value. You should know that.

I'm not looking at just points.

I'm just not ignoring the fact that Skinner has historically been a more goals than assists guy and that should factor into player value.

Then you ignore Jack’s potential impact on his production. I’m not talking about what he’s doing now with him. But the idea that he won’t get paid for that as well. If you think he will be nothing other than a 30g 60pt player even with Jack. Then you’re saying Jack isn’t going to have any impact on Skinner’s production. Which would be absurd. It probably won’t be the 50 goal pace
of right now. But it’s not hard to imagine him as a 35-40 goal scorer.

If Jack is inflating his production, why is Skinner getting paid for that?

Skinner's numbers in the future could be elevated by leaguewide scoring being up and the benefit of playing with Eichel.

But, Eichel is getting paid to elevate linemates. So, why do you pay extra for a guy to be elevated by Jack?

It’s amazing to watch a few posters talk themselves out of paying to keep an established 30g scorer. On a team that sucks at scoring and struggles to acquire players that do no less. Being stubborn about the extra 1-2mil per year you don’t feel he should get is a classic cutting off your nose to spite your face mentality.

I am not talking myself out of extending Skinner.

I just don't believe that giving Skinner a blank check will lead to the contract looking good down the road is all.

I said that I would really like it if he signed for less than $8M per, I could live with it being in the $8-8.5M range, and I expect that if it is $9M+ that it has a high probably of being an anchor down the road.

 

[joshjull]

No, my point is that goalscoring is up leaguewide.

So, it would be expected that a guy that averaged 30g prior to this year to get a few more than that.

Ergo, if the increase in scoring continues for the foreseeable future, Skinner being a guy that is a 35g/60pt guy would likely put him in the same realm leaguewide as he was as a 30g/55pt guy previously.

The 16/17 season, Skinner was 6th in goals and 32nd in points.

The 17/18 season, Skinner was T-68th in goals and T-119th in points.

Also, he has hit 30 goals in 4 out of 9 NHL seasons. And 60 points in 3 out of 9 NHL seasons (I am expecting him to get there this year).

So, expecting him to be a 35g/60pt guy is optimistic given his history. And last year those numbers would be t-15th in goals and t-72nd in points.

At the end of the day, it comes down to how much is a winger that will likely be top 15-20 in goals and top 75-ish in points worth as a UFA?

$9M+ per seems rich for that kind of player.

You’re grasping at this point.

He got more than a few more goals than normal this year because league scoring up? He’s on pace for 50 goals not 38.

I’m staggered the most by your utter dismissal of Jack and his impact on Skinner. Essentially your aguement is Skinner (30 goal scorer ) is scoring at a 50 goal pace because league scoring is up and it’s a contract year. I guess Jack is just there to cheer him on.


Not to mention you’re being disingenuous yet again. Or maybe you simply don’t understand that when I mentioned him as a 30g 65 pt player. I’m referencing worst case scenario over the contract. Particularly to dismiss your asinine comparison of that type of season being on par with the Moulson/Okposo situations.

You seem to think it’s given Skinner will drop back down to being a 30g 65 point player with league scoring going up and him finally playing with an elite level center. Nevemidn that 30 goal scorer is still a very good player but in this alternate universe you’ve created it’s a negative.

 

[joshjull]

Skinner probably is playing with an extra level of effort due to being a contract year. What is Buffalo supposed to do about that? They need scoring and the city would burn if Botterill came out and said they didn't think he was worth X dollars, so they traded him just as the team was about to get over the hump. Botterill will have to overpay, just how much is the question.

No we will just sign or trade for those other 30 goal scorers who are clamoring to come here.

 

[Icicle]

The league scoring being up only accounts for 20% of Skinner's increased production. That's how Rsq values work. He still has a boosted production on-top of that, of the remaining 80%, likely all attributed to Eichel and 1st line minutes versus the 3rd line Rask center he had before.

You sign Skinner because that 1-2 punch of proven chemistry on the 1st line for 8 solid years, which it will be, means the GM can focus on all the secondary pieces instead for nearly a decade. Instead of trying to acquire top-line talent again, which is rare for any team to do outside of tanking and picking top-10 in the draft. Everything below those two, after the top-pairing defense (which we have), is much easier for any GM to find and acquire.

 

[joshjull]

I'm not looking at just points.

I'm just not ignoring the fact that Skinner has historically been a more goals than assists guy and that should factor into player value.



If Jack is inflating his production, why is Skinner getting paid for that?

Skinner's numbers in the future could be elevated by leaguewide scoring being up and the benefit of playing with Eichel.

But, Eichel is getting paid to elevate linemates. So, why do you pay extra for a guy to be elevated by Jack?

Has it occurred to you that they are elevating each other? Jack is also playing the best he ever has.

I am not talking myself out of extending Skinner.

I just don't believe that giving Skinner a blank check will lead to the contract looking good down the road is all.

I said that I would really like it if he signed for less than $8M per, I could live with it being in the $8-8.5M range, and I expect that if it is $9M+ that it has a high probably of being an anchor down the road.

You’re kind of talking yourself out of it if you think there is any meaningful difference between him getting 8.5mil and 9mil+ Both numbers would be anchor if he underperformed.

I’m not arguing a blank check. I’m arguing that the situation we are in requires we will have to pay more than we want for higher end talent to stay here. So don’t cut off you nose to spite your face nickel and diming a player like Skinner. It’s probably going to cost the extra 500k to 1.5mil per year you don’t want to spend to keep him. I would obviously be extremely happy if that wasn’t the case. But I can live with it if it happens.

 

[kirby11]

Buffalo is the only place where a newly acquired winger potting 30 goals by the all-star break and having strong chemistry with our captain/#1 center could somehow be construed as a problem

 

[Jim Bob]

Has it occurred to you that they are elevating each other? Jack is also playing the best he ever has.

I was told that ROR being removed from the roster would allow Eichel to flourish.

You’re kind of talking yourself out of it if you think there is any meaningful difference between him getting 8.5mil and 9mil+ Both numbers would be anchor if he underperformed.

I’m not arguing a blank check. I’m arguing that the situation we are in requires we will have to pay more than we want for higher end talent to stay here. So don’t cut off you nose to spite your face nickel and diming a player like Skinner. It’s probably going to cost the extra 500k to 1.5mil per year you don’t want to spend to keep him. I would obviously be extremely happy if that wasn’t the case. But I can live with it if it happens.

$8.5M per is nickle and diming Skinner.

That's interesting.

 

[K8fool]

I was told that ROR being removed from the roster would allow Eichel to flourish.



$8.5M per is nickle and diming Skinner.

That's interesting.

I wouldnt worry about it .. what was Nylander Brother contract? And he wont get paid more than Giroux .. I am thrilled we have the tough little rag doll with great skating , puck skills and an accurate shot.. One trick .. hilarious.. He is a little bastard , gives team much needed attitude, occupies the d to give jackie boy space and scores when they dont.. We need another finisher to elevate mitts and we might have something.. Oloffson , Nylander the reviled injured pre pubescent bust .. I would love a thachuk but would take a Simmonds ..but who wouldnt and for free with a bag of cash..
I think the kids might just have anorther streak in them. ( if they got laid chilled out recharged etc.) and i love our concussion project (shows we care and may pay off) w larry and girgs.. Standing pat may work with good goaltending and healthy Captain brown sugar mullet.
The grass is always greener here in forum land but maybe just maybe this group might prove they can do it on their own over thenext 9 games and earn a toy or no changes beside signing our young bachelor principle Skinner.
I am enjoying the discussions very knowlegeble and like whiny entitled comedy sometimes and Der Jaeger has sold me on staying the course drafting three players so one cracks the lineup by this time next year. I hope this group steps up and am excited to watch next 4 days of my favorite show besides True Detective.. Now Ill go back to reading some sanity with a large helping of doom and Kolbrin doom... fun! .

 

[Fezzy126]

I do believe that the fact that scoring is up league-wide is a fact that is being conveniently left out of this conversation.

As an example, Eichel is currently t-16th in the NHL in PPG (among players with at least 30gp) at 1.16 PPG.

Last season, Eichel was t-29th with 0.96 PPG. T-16th was at 1.05 PPG.

So, Eichel is really about 0.09 PPG better this year than last year. Even if you attribute all of that to Skinner, is that amazing chemistry?

This is an interesting interpolation, but I'll just say there is a much bigger disparity if you look at Jack's ES Points/60 and P1/60 between this season and the past few.

This season he is 17th in total Points/60, and top 30 in P1/60.
Last season he was ~70th & ~50th, respectively.

I'm not advocating for Skinner's contract terms to be affected by 'chemistry', this just doesn't happen around the league, but Skinner & Eichel absolutely have shown amazing chemistry in the first half of the season. The numbers above are just one of many examples.

 

[Jim Bob]

This is an interesting interpolation, but I'll just say there is a much bigger disparity if you look at Jack's ES Points/60 and P1/60 between this season and the past few.

This season he is 17th in total Points/60, and top 30 in P1/60.
Last season he was ~70th & ~50th, respectively.

I'm not advocating for Skinner's contract terms to be affected by 'chemistry', this just doesn't happen around the league, but Skinner & Eichel absolutely have shown amazing chemistry in the first half of the season. The numbers above are just one of many examples.

2017‑2018 NHL Scoring Leaders

He was 53rd last season in Pts/60 without filtering out all the players with less than 10 GP.

2018‑2019 NHL Scoring Leaders

He is 25th this season without filtering out all the players with less than 10 GP.

 

[Fezzy126]

2017‑2018 NHL Scoring Leaders

He was 53rd last season in Pts/60 without filtering out all the players with less than 10 GP.

2018‑2019 NHL Scoring Leaders

He is 25th this season without filtering out all the players with less than 10 GP.

Why not filter out small sample sizes? Unless you think Zac Dalpe is actually the 2nd best scoring forward in the league... And I think ESP/60 is more applicable to illustrating Skinner's affect on Jack and vice versa.

 

[WYFR]

bear with me here. my uncle's boss' daughter plays college hockey with Skinner's sister. He tells me that he's heard that a $8.73m/7yr deal is in place to be announced/signed after the deadline

 

[CatsforReinhart]

bear with me here. my uncle's boss' daughter plays college hockey with Skinner's sister. He tells me that he's heard that a $8.73m/7yr deal is in place to be announced/signed after the deadline

I love this stuff

 

[Snippit]

bear with me here. my uncle's boss' daughter plays college hockey with Skinner's sister. He tells me that he's heard that a $8.73m/7yr deal is in place to be announced/signed after the deadline

My brother's lab partner's second cousin is Skinner's mailman and he has heard the same thing

 

[WYFR]

My brother's lab partner's second cousin is Skinner's mailman and he has heard the same thing

lol it must be true then!

 

[Aladyyn]

bear with me here. my uncle's boss' daughter plays college hockey with Skinner's sister. He tells me that he's heard that a $8.73m/7yr deal is in place to be announced/signed after the deadline

I would be damn happy with that.

 

[dotcommunism]

bear with me here. my uncle's boss' daughter plays college hockey with Skinner's sister. He tells me that he's heard that a $8.73m/7yr deal is in place to be announced/signed after the deadline

If they have a 7 year deal in place, there's absolutely no reason to wait for the deadline.

 

[jucebox]

Skinner will get paid. The Skinner line is the reason we are even middle of the pack

 

[ValJames]

When does Skinner tell his agent lets just move on from this Sh*t show ?

 

[26CornerBlitz]

 

[OkimLom]

Flashback to Briere vs Montreal in 06-07 season...