Prospect Info: Jayden Struble, LD, St. Sebastians, Pick 46

[Habs Halifax]

5 pts in 14 games with 2 goals now. Seems to be getting very comfortable with the transition to NCAA hockey. 4 game points streak going right now.

 

[AlexGretzchenvid]

I have a bias for homerun picks. I rank a prospect not on how likely he is to fulfill his potential, but on how high that potential is.

I know you can't just pick homeruns else you run the risk of having a cemetery of busts, but you only need one or two homeruns and it changes everything for your team. If Subban busted, we don't have Weber today, nor do we have a #1 when Subban was there. It changed everything for our team.

Chicago lucked out on the homerun pick Duncan Keith. It changed everything for them. Without him there is no mini-dynasty. Maybe they don't even win a single cup.

It only takes one or two. That's my reasoning for prefering homerun picks. The fate of a team is largely determined by such Black Swans.

Another example was Larry Robinson for us in 1971. Probably we still win many cups without him anyway, because we got Guy Lafleur which we had no business getting (thanks Sam Pollocks for the stolen 1st overall), but Robinson still dramatically increased our talent level and gave us the Big Three.

What determines a homerun pick. What qualities do you see or look for or find when determining that the player is a "homerun" pick instead of the opposite .. ( safe pick? )

 

[BenchBrawl]

What determines a homerun pick. What qualities do you see or look for or find when determining that the player is a "homerun" pick instead of the opposite .. ( safe pick? )

Homerun pick is a player whose ceiling of potential is very high, but due to some uncertainty or weaknesses, is not picked as high as his talent(s) would ask for.

Something like that.

Someone who can become an impact player in the NHL if he fulfills his potential.

A safe pick would be a guy who's almost a lock to make the NHL, because he's been consistent over a long period of time against "well-established" competition, and who has the usual things you look for from a NHLer (skating, height, reasonable IQ, responsible, etc), but who doesn't have any particular pronounced talent that would enabled him to dominate if he paufined the rest of his game. He doesn't have great hands. He doesn't have a great shot. He's not remarkably tall and big (6 ft 4+). He doesn't have remarkable agility or mobility, so on and so on.

Cole Caufield is a homerun pick because he has that pronounced talent, his shot is very natural and impossible to teach. I hesitate to call mid-1st rounders "homerun picks" though, but it's just an example.

Likewise, Struble has the natural abilities to potentially become a dominant #1 defenseman someday. Chances are it won't happen, fair enough. But he could. That's not true of most defensive prospects.

If you score 2 or 3 homerun picks it dramatically changes the landscape of your team. I don't care about the % of our prospects that ends up being NHLers, I care about how many "black swan" homerun type draft picks we can make, leading to impact players. If you draft and develop a #4 defenseman, then allright, good. But those guys are a dime a dozen. You can trade for them, you can sign them. But you cannot trade for a #1 center or #1 defenseman, nor can you easily sign them.

Of course this all assume your goal is to win championships, not have the "best average" performance. This isn't a strategy for the loss averse. In poker, it's easy to spot a player who is loss averse. Those players rarely win anything. The Montreal Canadiens have been loss averse for a long time now, with the results we know. "In Montreal, you cannot miss the playoffs". Well guess what, no guts no glory.

 

[AlexGretzchenvid]

Homerun pick is a player whose ceiling of potential is very high, but due to some uncertainty or weaknesses, is not picked as high as his talent(s) would ask for.

Something like that.

Someone who can become an impact player in the NHL if he fulfills his potential.

A safe pick would be a guy who's almost a lock to make the NHL, because he's been consistent over a long period of time against "well-established" competition, and who has the usual things you look for from a NHLer (skating, height, reasonable IQ, responsible, etc), but who doesn't have any particular pronounced talent that would enabled him to dominate if he paufined the rest of his game. He doesn't have great hands. He doesn't have a great shot. He's not remarkably tall and big (6 ft 4+). He doesn't have remarkable agility or mobility, so on and so on.

Cole Caufield is a homerun pick because he has that pronounced talent, his shot is very natural and impossible to teach. I hesitate to call mid-1st rounders "homerun picks" though, but it's just an example.

Likewise, Struble has the natural abilities to potentially become a dominant #1 defenseman someday. Chances are it won't happen, fair enough. But he could. That's not true of most defensive prospects.

If you score 2 or 3 homerun picks it dramatically changes the landscape of your team. I don't care about the % of our prospects that ends up being NHLers, I care about how many "black swan" homerun type draft picks we can make, leading to impact players. If you draft and develop a #4 defenseman, then allright, good. But those guys are a dime a dozen. You can trade for them, you can sign them. But you cannot trade for a #1 center or #1 defenseman, nor can you easily sign them.

Of course this all assume your goal is to win championships, not have the "best average" performance. This isn't a strategy for the loss averse. In poker, it's easy to spot a player who is loss averse. Those players rarely win anything. The Montreal Canadiens have been loss averse for a long time now, with the results we know. "In Montreal, you cannot miss the playoffs". Well guess what, no guts no glory.

First, thank you for your time and thoughts. Alot more than I asked for but that's great!

Do you have an opinion on what struble lacks other than the obvious which would be playing highschool so far. His parents may not have been able to afford DEV camp?

How many other established NHLERS today came out if high school like him?

 

[BenchBrawl]

First, thank you for your time and thoughts. Alot more than I asked for but that's great!

Do you have an opinion on what struble lacks other than the obvious which would be playing highschool so far. His parents may not have been able to afford DEV camp?

How many other established NHLERS today came out if high school like him?

I'm noy knowledgable enough about all the prospects to go that deep. I'm not a scout nor do I watch prospects very often. This was more a first impression thing by watching some videos.

 

[Habs Halifax]

First, thank you for your time and thoughts. Alot more than I asked for but that's great!

Do you have an opinion on what struble lacks other than the obvious which would be playing highschool so far. His parents may not have been able to afford DEV camp?

How many other established NHLERS today came out if high school like him?

Not many even play NCAA at 18. He's a very interesting prospect but like Harris, we will have more of a better idea in his age 19 season. Regardless, he's clearly gaining momentum with his 4 game points streak playing in a sheltered role to some degree. If he continues to improve this season like he has shown lately, it's bonus.

What I like the most is that the physical strength is already there at 18 and he skates very well for a big guy on D. A very confident kid

 

[Habs4Life]

Not many even play NCAA at 18. He's a very interesting prospect but like Harris, we will have more of a better idea in his age 19 season. Regardless, he's clearly gaining momentum with his 4 game points streak playing in a sheltered role to some degree.

If he continues to improve this season, it's bonus.

What I like the most is that the physical strength is already there at 18 and he skates very well for a big guy on D. A very confident kid

Yeah he finished like 1st in 5 out of 15 physical tests at the combine. He killed the bench press compared to all the other players! He's a beast in physical strength!

 

[Habs Halifax]

Yeah he finished like 1st in 5 out of 15 physical tests at the combine. He killed the bench press compared to all the other players! He's a beast in physical strength!

Imagine that... a guy who is strong and has size but also can SKATE very well! I love players like this and we lack them! He's got a long road ahead of him but certainly on the right track. A lot of steps and challenges coming for him moving forward but this age 18 season is a warm-up or transition year from HS.

Becoming a trusted top 4D option on D in the NHL is very difficult. Habs need to keep stock piling options and giving Timmins extra darts for the draft

 

[Habs]

Homerun pick is a player whose ceiling of potential is very high, but due to some uncertainty or weaknesses, is not picked as high as his talent(s) would ask for.

Something like that.

Someone who can become an impact player in the NHL if he fulfills his potential.

A safe pick would be a guy who's almost a lock to make the NHL, because he's been consistent over a long period of time against "well-established" competition, and who has the usual things you look for from a NHLer (skating, height, reasonable IQ, responsible, etc), but who doesn't have any particular pronounced talent that would enabled him to dominate if he paufined the rest of his game. He doesn't have great hands. He doesn't have a great shot. He's not remarkably tall and big (6 ft 4+). He doesn't have remarkable agility or mobility, so on and so on.

Cole Caufield is a homerun pick because he has that pronounced talent, his shot is very natural and impossible to teach. I hesitate to call mid-1st rounders "homerun picks" though, but it's just an example.

Likewise, Struble has the natural abilities to potentially become a dominant #1 defenseman someday. Chances are it won't happen, fair enough. But he could. That's not true of most defensive prospects.

If you score 2 or 3 homerun picks it dramatically changes the landscape of your team. I don't care about the % of our prospects that ends up being NHLers, I care about how many "black swan" homerun type draft picks we can make, leading to impact players. If you draft and develop a #4 defenseman, then allright, good. But those guys are a dime a dozen. You can trade for them, you can sign them. But you cannot trade for a #1 center or #1 defenseman, nor can you easily sign them.

Of course this all assume your goal is to win championships, not have the "best average" performance. This isn't a strategy for the loss averse. In poker, it's easy to spot a player who is loss averse. Those players rarely win anything. The Montreal Canadiens have been loss averse for a long time now, with the results we know. "In Montreal, you cannot miss the playoffs". Well guess what, no guts no glory.

These are the reasons why we should have taken Tkachuk without any hesitation, and not have gambled on JK.

 

[Roadhouse]

These are the reasons why we should have taken Tkachuk without any hesitation, and not have gambled on JK.

Watched the game vs. Boston... I mean, imagine Tkachuk-Domi-Gallagher for a second. There's no words.

 

[Habs Halifax]

These are the reasons why we should have taken Tkachuk without any hesitation, and not have gambled on JK.

But we didn't gamble on Kotkaniemi. BPA at the 3rd pick was a group of players.

However, think about what happened after the draft (see below)? Knowing what I know today about how the center of the ice looks in terms of potential, I would of taken Tkachuk but more about addressing a LW power forward need. We could of taken anyone of Kotkaneimi, Tkachuk, Hughes, Dobson, Boqvist. All were consider similar in terms of "BPA" picks. It's way to early to be pessimistic with Kotkaniemi. Lets say we have Tkachuk instead? Does he look as good playing on a team with more pressure? Hard to predict

- We acquired Suzuki
- Domi proved he can handle the center role
- Poehling had a great age 19/20 season
- Danault took a step forward

 

[Habs]

But we didn't gamble on Kotkaniemi. BPA at the 3rd pick was a group of players.

However, think about what happened after the draft (see below)? Knowing what I know today about how the center of the ice looks in terms of potential, I would of taken Tkachuk but more about addressing a LW power forward need. We could of taken anyone of Kotkaneimi, Tkachuk, Hughes, Dobson, Boqvist. All were consider similar in terms of "BPA" picks. It's way to early to pessimistic with Kotkaniemi. Lets say we have Tkachuk instead? Does he look as good playing on a team with more pressure? Hard to predict

- We acquired Suzuki
- Domi proved he can handle the center role
- Poehling had a great age 19/20 season
- Danault took a step forward

We are a better team with Tkachuk, or a few others such as Hughes, Dobson etc. It was a botched first round, yet again, by the wonderful crew at the CH.

 

[Habs Halifax]

We are a better team with Tkachuk, or a few others such as Hughes, Dobson etc. It was a botched first round, yet again, by the wonderful crew at the CH.

Yes, knowing what we know today, I do think Tkachuk fits our needs better. I have full confidence in Suzuki, Danault, Domi, Poehling being our center options. A power forward LW might be our biggest need at the moment.

With all due respect though... BPA with the 3rd pick was a few guys, not one. At that point in time, we needed a center and I still believe he is a long term prospect. We even talked about that near the Draft... Tkachuk is more NHL ready

 

[AlexGretzchenvid]

Yeah he finished like 1st in 5 out of 15 physical tests at the combine. He killed the bench press compared to all the other players! He's a beast in physical strength!

Physical strength conditioning can be a bad thing when in comes to length of performance. Endurance and strength built on your skates is really important I would assume.

 

[AlexGretzchenvid]

These are the reasons why we should have taken Tkachuk without any hesitation, and not have gambled on JK.

I often think like this. Montreal seems to love projects. It's like the mental hospital for hockey players lol.

 

[Habs]

Yes, knowing what we know today, I do think Tkachuk fits our needs better. I have full confidence in Suzuki, Danault, Domi, Poehling being our center options. A power forward LW might be our biggest need at the moment.

With all due respect though... BPA with the 3rd pick was a few guys, not one. At that point in time, we needed a center and I still believe he is a long term prospect. We even talked about that near the Draft... Tkachuk is more NHL ready

If that Center was a consensus 3rd overall pick, I would agree. A lot of people had JK at 8-11, he was a reach at 3 except from a couple of Hab homers who celebrate every pick in the media. It was a known fact he was sheltered his final year of hockey, his dad made sure he wasn't exposed. Maybe he pans out to a 3rd line C, but that's an awful way to rebuild your club when all that top notch talent was sitting there on the blueline and the wing.

I think people will be disappointed with Caufield if this team remains the same build. He will not flourish on this small team, he will get beaten to oblivion.

As for Struble, he has some legit tools, but finding some depth in the later rounds has never been that much of an issue compared to the first round.

 

[Habs Halifax]

If that Center was a consensus 3rd overall pick, I would agree. A lot of people had JK at 8-11, he was a reach at 3 except from a couple of Hab homers who celebrate every pick in the media. It was a known fact he was sheltered his final year of hockey, his dad made sure he wasn't exposed. Maybe he pans out to a 3rd line C, but that's an awful way to rebuild your club when all that top notch talent was sitting there on the blueline and the wing.

I think people will be disappointed with Caufield if this team remains the same build. He will not flourish on this small team, he will get beaten to oblivion.

As for Struble, he has some legit tools, but finding some depth in the later rounds has never been that much of an issue compared to the first round.

The most respected ranking (Bob's ranking) had him 5th and he actually interviews NHL scouts! But I repeat, the gap between 3-7 was minuscule and a personal preference. Pretending there was only one BPA is thinking you know more than Timmins and his scouts and that's foolish cause they have a heck of a lot more info than fans do! Kotkaniemi was drafted as a long term prospect. Keep reminding yourself that each time you want him to break out at a earlier age. He's not Pettersson or Svechnikov. It's going to take a while for him to fill into that body and skill/IQ is not an issue at all! I don't expect him to be a elite level skater but he does need better lower body strength and better edge work so he can use his frame to his advantage more.

Caufield will be a PP specialist and decent 5/5. Look at the bigger picture which is the long game, not the sort game or short span. We have more growing pains that goes past this year believe it or not. I do see your issues with lack of grit/strength but that can be addressed in the next year or 2.

Not sure what you mean about Struble and late round hits? He was a 2nd round pick.

 

[Habs]

The most respected ranking (Bob's ranking) had him 5th and he actually interviews NHL scouts! But I repeat, the gap between 3-7 was minuscule and a personal preference. Pretending there was only one BPA is thinking you know more than Timmins and his scouts and that's foolish cause they have a heck of a lot more info than fans do! Kotkaniemi was drafted as a long term prospect. Keep reminding yourself that each time you want him to break out at a earlier age. He's not Pettersson or Svechnikov. It's going to take a while for him to fill into that body and skill/IQ is not an issue at all! I don't expect him to be a elite level skater but he does need better lower body strength and better edge work so he can use his frame to his advantage more.

Caufield will be a PP specialist and decent 5/5. Look at the bigger picture which is the long game, not the sort game or short span. We have more growing pains that goes past this year believe it or not. I do see your issues with lack of grit/strength but that can be addressed in the next year or 2.

Not sure what you mean about Struble and late round hits? He was a 2nd round pick.

Caufield will not succeed unless this team gets bigger, he will not get any space out there. Kotkaniemi is also suffering the effects of being a rookie on a small team. They are relying on him to retrieve pucks, and he is just a kid still, not a man's build yet. This team is 3 moves away from providing an environment for young players to develop, and it requires size up front, especially down the middle.

Management has failed on so many levels, its just a sad joke now.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Caufield will not succeed unless this team gets bigger, he will not get any space out there. Kotkaniemi is also suffering the effects of being a rookie on a small team. They are relying on him to retrieve pucks, and he is just a kid still, not a man's build yet. This team is 3 moves away from providing an environment for young players to develop, and it requires size up front, especially down the middle.

Management has failed on so many levels, its just a sad joke now.

You are too focused on the short span and fell like management needs to make desperate moves cause our GM has been on the job for 8 years. That's a recipe for mistakes so set aside your Management frustration and don't take it out on the prospects.

The holes for the long game don't have to be filled overnight. If our GM is fired today, I still see our future potential the same.

 

[Habs]

You are too focused on the short span and fell like management needs to make desperate moves cause our GM has been on the job for 8 years. That's a recipe for mistakes so set aside your Management frustration and don't take it out on the prospects.

The holes for the long game don't have to be filled overnight. If our GM is fired today, I still see our future potential the same.

Quite the opposite actually. They panic'd when never filling the void down the middle, and went overboard drafting in the C position that year, instead of PBA. If the team had a real 5 year plan, they would have filled those future voids, and wouldn't be making panic moves the last few years to fill gaps. You can't run into a season after years on the job looking for a C, or a LD. Bergy and Timmins need to GTFO and let management with a real plan come into place and deal with the shortcomings this team has.

Struble could be a step in the right direction, but imagine having Webs and Hughes in the Pipeline for Struble to watch?

 

[AlexGretzchenvid]

If that Center was a consensus 3rd overall pick, I would agree. A lot of people had JK at 8-11, he was a reach at 3 except from a couple of Hab homers who celebrate every pick in the media. It was a known fact he was sheltered his final year of hockey, his dad made sure he wasn't exposed. Maybe he pans out to a 3rd line C, but that's an awful way to rebuild your club when all that top notch talent was sitting there on the blueline and the wing.

I think people will be disappointed with Caufield if this team remains the same build. He will not flourish on this small team, he will get beaten to oblivion.

As for Struble, he has some legit tools, but finding some depth in the later rounds has never been that much of an issue compared to the first round.

Mediocrity with better hot dogs is a winning recipe in molsons eyes. The reason I bring this up is because someone needs to be fired. You can't have the last 15 years of first round picks produce.......... who exactly. I've watched for 20 years and haven't seen 1 of Montreal's picks ( sorry price ) in the first round become anything more than a great 2nd liner or great top 4 ( or traded away ).

You could argue that every other team ,minus a few teams presumably newer to the NHL than the Canadiens, has drafted and developed a legit 1st line player selected in the first round. 80+ point years on consecutive basis that we drafted, don't have one.

 

[Habs]

Mediocrity with better hot dogs is a winning recipe in molsons eyes. The reason I bring this up is because someone needs to be fired. You can't have the last 15 years of first round picks produce.......... who exactly. I've watched for 20 years and haven't seen 1 of Montreal's picks ( sorry price ) in the first round become anything more than a great 2nd liner or great top 4 ( or traded away ).

You could argue that every other team ,minus a few teams presumably newer to the NHL than the Canadiens, has drafted and developed a legit 1st line player selected in the first round. 80+ point years on consecutive basis that we drafted, don't have one.

Yup, we have nothing to show in the first round since Price. Am I missing someone?

 

[AlexGretzchenvid]

Yup, we have nothing to show in the first round since Price. Am I missing someone?

As far as legit 1st round talent.. price is questionable lol. He's had 10 years as "The world's best goalie" to get us to at least the conference finals. Price is the guy the team says is our best player so shouldn't he at least get us somewhere with the actually not to bad supporting cast the last 2 GMS have given him?We've barely made it to the 2nd round with him as our sole goalie.

 

[JoelWarlord]

Mediocrity with better hot dogs is a winning recipe in molsons eyes. The reason I bring this up is because someone needs to be fired. You can't have the last 15 years of first round picks produce.......... who exactly. I've watched for 20 years and haven't seen 1 of Montreal's picks ( sorry price ) in the first round become anything more than a great 2nd liner or great top 4 ( or traded away ).

Max Pacioretty is 14th in the league in goals in the last 10 seasons. During his 11-12 to 16-17 goal scoring prime he was 4th in the league with 189 goals. I get that people don't like him for various reasons but he was absolutely a 1st liner and a very good one at that. McDonagh/Sergachev are obvious, and we would have had John Carlson too if they didn't trade a 1st for Tanguay and then let him walk. Timmins also apparently wanted Kreider in 2009 but was forced to take Leblanc with the draft in Montreal.

That's not to say there's not room for criticism with the Canadiens' first-rounders and drafting/development in general. McCarron and Tinordi were unwise reactionary picks and Fischer is one of the worst 1st rounders I can think off off the top of my head, but dismissing guys like Pacioretty as 2nd liners is just setting up an impossible standard.

 

[Habs]

As far as legit 1st round talent.. price is questionable lol. He's had 10 years as "The world's best goalie" to get us to at least the conference finals. Price is the guy the team says is our best player so shouldn't he at least get us somewhere with the actually not to bad supporting cast the last 2 GMS have given him?We've barely made it to the 2nd round with him as our sole goalie.

Yes but put him on a capable team (team canada etc) and he's golden. He's a world class goalie, a franchise 1st round pick, can't complain about that one lol

He has always been on a low scoring team.