His NTC becomes a 5 team list in his 3rd year. I agree he is a good one, but he's not particularly fast and any decline is going to be pretty bad. I expect two strong years out of him. Hopefully he's good through 3 of those years. 3 years would have been more idea. It is what it is. It's hard to gauge when players decline.
Player Discussion Jay Beagle
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His NTC becomes a 5 team list in his 3rd year. I agree he is a good one, but he's not particularly fast and any decline is going to be pretty bad. I expect two strong years out of him. Hopefully he's good through 3 of those years. 3 years would have been more idea. It is what it is. It's hard to gauge when players decline.
Pastor Of Muppetz
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Nick Lang
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It's completely possible, and I would say likely that a dedicated health nut with few injury concerns can still skate fast. It's 37, not 57. It just shows how quick your crowd is to be overly critcal. To the point where you don't even bother to fully read what you're replying to.
Do you think there is a limited amount of players that make the NHL that are 'Health Nuts'? This isn't the 1970's when players are hacking a dart in the locker room between periods.
PuckMunchkin
Very Nice, Very Evil!
Has nothing to do with "a crowd" or being "overlty critical." He loses a step and he is done in the league. Players of Beagles type have a lesser shelf life.
Shareefruck
Registered User
Everybody read what you wrote, you just didn't give very compelling reasoning for why you think that. "a dedicated health nut with few injury concerns can still skate fast"? That's seriously what you're basing your assessment off of and all you're going to give to back up the thought?
Not that it would be sufficient, but at an absolute bare minimum, at least give an example of someone comparable to Beagle's talent level who didn't decline at 37. Picking an outlier would at least be the start of a lazy argument, but this doesn't even have that.
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Dissonance Jr
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Here's one way to look at what to expect from Beagle.
In the last decade, there have only been 92 forwards who played at least 160 games after the age of 33. (Beagle will turn 33 in October and he’s signed for 328 games.)
Player Season Finder | Hockey-Reference.com
The vast majority of those players were either stars or scoring-line players in their prime. Guys like Jagr or the Sedins, but also guys like David Legwand or Craig Conroy. Those aren't great comparables so put them aside.
If we're solely looking at guys who were career 3rd/4th line players, like Beagle, then the list of guys who aged well basically shrinks to:
Jason Chimera (444 games as a 33+ y/o player)
Dominic Moore (367)
Craig Adams (362)
Jeff Halpern (327)
Jamal Myers (320)
Derek MacKenzie (303)
Vern Fiddler (297)
Chris Neil (295)
Scott Nichol (288)
John Madden (262)
Chris Kelly (242)
Matt Cooke (241)
Matt Hendricks (241)
Eric Boulton (236)
Jarkko Ruutu (233)
Ethan Moreau (218)
Mike Grier (208)
Kris Draper (207)
Jay Pandolfo (193)
Dan Cleary (192)
Eric Belanger (186)
Sami Pahlsson (162)
Only about 22 forwards total across a decade of hockey. I also tried to be generous with comparables here; many of the players on that list were much better in their primes than Beagle ever was (Chimera, Halpern, Draper, Madden, Pandolfo, Pahlsson, etc.)
So judging from recent history, an optimistic projection for Beagle is a late career along the lines of Derek MacKenzie or Dominic Moore or Matt Hendricks or Scott Nichol.
And that's probably closer to a best-case scenario than a most likely scenario. Even those guys listed are exceptions, not the rule. Most checking-line players just don't play very many games after the age of 33.
In the last decade, there have only been 92 forwards who played at least 160 games after the age of 33. (Beagle will turn 33 in October and he’s signed for 328 games.)
Player Season Finder | Hockey-Reference.com
The vast majority of those players were either stars or scoring-line players in their prime. Guys like Jagr or the Sedins, but also guys like David Legwand or Craig Conroy. Those aren't great comparables so put them aside.
If we're solely looking at guys who were career 3rd/4th line players, like Beagle, then the list of guys who aged well basically shrinks to:
Jason Chimera (444 games as a 33+ y/o player)
Dominic Moore (367)
Craig Adams (362)
Jeff Halpern (327)
Jamal Myers (320)
Derek MacKenzie (303)
Vern Fiddler (297)
Chris Neil (295)
Scott Nichol (288)
John Madden (262)
Chris Kelly (242)
Matt Cooke (241)
Matt Hendricks (241)
Eric Boulton (236)
Jarkko Ruutu (233)
Ethan Moreau (218)
Mike Grier (208)
Kris Draper (207)
Jay Pandolfo (193)
Dan Cleary (192)
Eric Belanger (186)
Sami Pahlsson (162)
Only about 22 forwards total across a decade of hockey. I also tried to be generous with comparables here; many of the players on that list were much better in their primes than Beagle ever was (Chimera, Halpern, Draper, Madden, Pandolfo, Pahlsson, etc.)
So judging from recent history, an optimistic projection for Beagle is a late career along the lines of Derek MacKenzie or Dominic Moore or Matt Hendricks or Scott Nichol.
And that's probably closer to a best-case scenario than a most likely scenario. Even those guys listed are exceptions, not the rule. Most checking-line players just don't play very many games after the age of 33.
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Nick Lang
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The comment I replied to was suggesting his speed would be an absolute joke. I completely disagree NHLers can no longer skate at 37 years of age, and I find it in bad taste for a supposed Canuck fan beaming a huge smile at how bad of a skater this player will be in 5 years.
Whatever guys, it just screams anti fan, obvious agenda to me. Carry on though. He'll be an absolute joke, just like the Canucks, cause of Benning. Got it.
WTG
December 5th
"Anti-fan" "agenda"
Think people who don't like Benning just all got together and decided to pass down an agenda that we all agreed to just to post here? Quit with this tribal nonsense, fans here are individuals, not a collective of groups.
When you paint lines in the sand like that you abandon objectivity. You just pick sides then attack the "other side".
RobertKron
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I’d suggest that if, upon signing to an absolutely terrible team with poor centre depth, you still refer to the player as a 4th liner, then there would be an argument as to his status as a high end 4th liner. Good 4th liners - especially at centre - are usually 3rd liners who have been pushed down the lineup.
Shareefruck
Registered User
His speed is overwhelmingly likely to be a joke at that age, not because of Benning, but because of his current speed and overwhelming precedence of what happens to speed at that age. People said similar things about Henrik Sedin's expected decline in speed, and were largely right-- only we expected that he could still be a serviceable player despite this drop-off due to his other qualities being elite and starting from a higher level to drop from.
Being upset that people aren't open to the idea of Beagle continuing to be a solid 4th liner at 37 is not much different from being upset that people aren't open to the idea of Henrik Sedin continuing to be a PPG+ franchise player at 37. Both are implausible expectations/possibilities to hold out hope for.
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It is possible. But it's unlikely.
Players decline. At that age, the decline is already happening/happening rapidly, on average.
And being that Beagle isn't starting from a place where he already is a particularly good player (has "room to fall"), the chances that he's a very significant liability one, two or three years into his contract are quite large.
Yah, it's possible. But it's a bad bet.
sting101
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Jay Beagle ona 1-2 yr max deal would have been palatable. 4yrs is just f***ing awful no matter how you slice it
ProstheticConscience
Check dein Limit
Megaterio Llamas
el rey del mambo
Pastor Of Muppetz
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Canucks weren't getting Beagle for 1 or 2 years,thats a pipe dream..There were other offers on the table..4 years is shitty though....I 'll say he'll be here for 2.75 years (traded at the TDL).
The Stig
Your hero.
VasilyHoglander
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sting101
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Then walk away.
There are players as good without the cache of a Stanley Cup price tag available every year.
Its absurd that a 4th liner would be so coveted that a GM would be willing to overpay by at least 6 million dollars and 2yrs term and complicate his roster and cap going forward.
Askel
By the way Benning should be fired.
Nick Lang
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Okay guys. Forget I said anything. I was merely shaking my head at the poster virtually rubbing his hands his hands together will glee at two geriatrics in Eriksson, and Beagle, and enjoyiing watching them make us a joke.
I don't disagree that age won't catch up with them, I just don't think they will be hilarios to watch. Also, Henrik was an absolutely horrible skater compared to Jay. Edler shouldn't even have been in the NHL according to that criteria.
Nick Lang
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It's not really shitty at all though. The thing with NHL contracts is that they can be traded or buried in the AHL. The owner may be on the hook for some cash but Canucks fans and the Cap won't be. We basically locked up this guy for 2 - 3 years if you want.
Comparing Beagle to Hank Sedin because of skating is classic Benning Bro's deflection.
This is incorrect. Sometimes its better to remain silent if you dont know what you are talking about...
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Melvin
21/12/05
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