Player Discussion Jay Beagle

[Bojack Horvatman]

This. Panarin and Karlsson wouldn't sign here for all the tea in China, nor would most top flight players. Thus we consistently have to overpay players and give them excessive term time and time again...

The Canucks are under no obligation to sign bad contracts. Especially when there were much cheaper alternatives available( Richardson, Dowd, Gaunce) that fill the same role.

 

[ProstheticConscience]

This. Panarin and Karlsson wouldn't sign here for all the tea in China, nor would most top flight players. Thus we consistently have to overpay players and give them excessive term time and time again...

No we don't. We really, really don't.

 

[mathonwy]

The Canucks are under no obligation to sign bad contracts. Especially when there were much cheaper alternatives available( Richardson, Dowd, Gaunce) that fill the same role.

Just being Devil's advocate here, maybe they are and we the fans don't know it.

I really don't see any other rational way to explain our current situation.

 

[sting101]

Perhaps Is it possible that Jay Beagle is related to Colin Campbell. Maybe he will be worth every penny

 

[ProstheticConscience]

Perhaps Is it possible that Jay Beagle is related to Colin Campbell. Maybe he will be worth every penny

Maybe monkeys will be flying out of my ass at the home opener.

 

[vanuck]

The Canucks are under no obligation to sign bad contracts. Especially when there were much cheaper alternatives available( Richardson, Dowd, Gaunce) that fill the same role.

Yeah I touched on this in the Gaudette thread earlier with Expected Goals Against (xGA), but looking at the centers we've had and their shorthanded xGA/60 over the last 3 years is really illuminating:

Player	PK xGA/60
McCann	4.87
Dowd	5.16
Chaput	6.42
Gaunce	7.09
Beagle	7.13
Richardson	7.30

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

(all data pulled from Corsica)

The funny thing is that even if you were to plug in someone like Richardson into Beagle's PK minutes last year and prorate to 82 games you'd only expect to give up about 0.6 goals more on the PK over the course of the season. However you'd expect to score about 4.4 more goals and give up about 2.8 fewer goals at 5v5 with Beagle's minutes given to Richardson, so you end up gaining about 6.5 extra goals in total. Adding +6.5 to your goal differential is not insignificant at all, especially for a team slated to be on the playoff bubble at best.

Richardson also costs 1.25M against the cap, while you're paying Beagle 2.4x more for a worse goal differential overall which is why this is so s***ty.

You'd draw a similar conclusion if you compared Richardson to Sutter too for instance.

If you compared Beagle to Sutter, they're really not all that different in terms of driving possession at 5v5 while the latter is better on the PK. Neither, however, are worth their contracts and that's really what matters most when it comes to the evaluation of these 2 players.

 

[Duodenum]

Yeah I touched on this in the Gaudette thread earlier with Expected Goals Against (xGA), but looking at the centers we've had and their shorthanded xGA/60 over the last 3 years is really illuminating:

Player	PK xGA/60
McCann	4.87
Dowd	5.16
Chaput	6.42
Gaunce	7.09
Beagle	7.13
Richardson	7.30

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

(all data pulled from Corsica)

The funny thing is that even if you were to plug in someone like Richardson into Beagle's PK minutes last year and prorate to 82 games you'd only expect to give up about 0.6 goals more on the PK over the course of the season. However you'd expect to score about 4.4 more goals and give up about 2.8 fewer goals at 5v5 with Beagle's minutes given to Richardson, so you end up gaining about 6.5 extra goals in total. Adding +6.5 to your goal differential is not insignificant at all, especially for a team slated to be on the playoff bubble at best.

Richardson also costs 1.25M against the cap, while you're paying Beagle 2.4x more for a worse goal differential overall which is why this is so s***ty.

You'd draw a similar conclusion if you compared Richardson to Sutter too for instance.

If you compared Beagle to Sutter, they're really not all that different in terms of driving possession at 5v5 while the latter is better on the PK. Neither, however, are worth their contracts and that's really what matters most when it comes to the evaluation of these 2 players.

Does that take into account the opposition they are facing? As I'd think Beagle is out first against the top unit while most of the others are not.

 

[Hit the post]

Does that take into account the opposition they are facing? As I'd think Beagle is out first against the top unit while most of the others are not.

When Sutter is in the lineup, I think he’s Green’s ‘go to guy’ on the PK, so I don’t think he’s even the first guy (C) out against the top unit for the Canucks. He is what he is. An expensive 4C with a NTC.

 

[Pastor Of Muppetz]

When Sutter is in the lineup, I think he’s Green’s ‘go to guy’ on the PK, so I don’t think he’s even the first guy (C) out against the top unit for the Canucks. He is what he is. An expensive 4C with a NTC.

Modified NTC starting this season..He has a list of 15 teams that he cannot be traded to.

 

[Pip]

Modified NTC starting this season..He has a list of 15 teams that he cannot be traded to.

I guess his notified NTC doesn’t matter too much since nobody would trade for him with his contract.

 

[Pastor Of Muppetz]

I guess his notified NTC doesn’t matter too much since nobody would trade for him with his contract.

Not necessarily...Last year was a complete write off for Sutter (separated shoulder,chronic groin issues)..If he can stay healthy,there could be trade interest by the TDL

Most likely be trading for another substantial contract that expires after next season.

REPORT: Canucks have received multiple trade calls on Brandon Sutter

 

[VanJack]

For whatever reason, some guys when they get into their 30's just fall off the cliff....maybe it's the cumulative effect of all the injuries or the grind of long playoff hockey runs, which Beagle has undoubtedly experienced throughout his career.

Obviously the Canucks are praying he can stabilize his performance for at least the remainder of his contract. But the results down the stretch last season and so far early in this one, are not encouraging. I smell another expensive and debilitating buy-out coming.

 

[vanuck]

Does that take into account the opposition they are facing? As I'd think Beagle is out first against the top unit while most of the others are not.

Good question - it's hard to say if they were facing top PP units though probably not as they weren't up there in minutes, except for Richardson who has been the Coyote's go-to guy since the 2017-18 season.

But it would absolutely be worth a shot. Some guys have the right traits needed to be successful on the PK, whether skating (McCann) or smarts/instincts (Gaunce). With the advantage in terms of 5v5 impact, either way you still come out ahead overall in goal differential.

 

[David71]

I look forward to this guy getting worse every single year for the duration of his contract. Good times.

well he keeps on getting worse even with the injuries he's have endured this season. his line is always stuck in the Dzone. and getting scoring chances by the
opposition. him and sutter same type of player. 4 yrs is too long..

 

[F A N]

well he keeps on getting worse even with the injuries he's have endured this season. his line is always stuck in the Dzone. and getting scoring chances by the
opposition. him and sutter same type of player. 4 yrs is too long..

That tends to happen when you overwhelming start in the "Dzone."

 

[geebaan]

That tends to happen when you overwhelming start in the "Dzone."

 

[Hit the post]

But it would absolutely be worth a shot. Some guys have the right traits needed to be successful on the PK, whether skating (McCann) or smarts/instincts (Gaunce). With the advantage in terms of 5v5 impact, either way you still come out ahead overall in goal differential.

Or just dang cheap (contract) so that you can actually spend more on depth guys for your D. Tell me that Stecher has ever looked any good (for any lengthy period of time) since Hutton was shown the door.

 

[MS]

That tends to happen when you overwhelming start in the "Dzone."

Every team has checking lines that start overwhelmingly in the d-zone.

No other team has a checking line that plays ~12-13 minutes/game and hasn't scored a goal in 30 games while getting mutilated in terms of territory and scoring chances to this extent.

Beagle is one of the worst players in the NHL and we aren't even half-way through his $12 million deal.

 

[Melvin]

Wonder if we can trade him back to Washington for Dowd.

 

[Peter10]

Wonder if we can trade him back to Washington for Dowd.

Maybe if 50% are retained.

 

[Horse McHindu]

The Canucks are under no obligation to sign bad contracts. Especially when there were much cheaper alternatives available( Richardson, Dowd, Gaunce) that fill the same role.

Unfortunately, signing those contracts were the lesser of two evils. The far worse “evil” in this case, would have been playing or promoting the young players within our system that wouldn’t have been ready for said roles. Gaunce himself wasn’t ready for NHL duty (I’m assuming that you’re referring to the time when we traded for Prust?).

Guys like Richardson and Dowd wouldn’t have been able to fill the void of the 2nd line C (which is why we had originally traded for Bonino, and which is why we had moved Bonino for Sutter...the Canucks wanted a guy that could fill the temporary void of 2nd line C, while allowing Horvat to grow his game a little more in lesser roles (ie 3rd line C). Obviously, things didn’t work out that way (ie Sutter got injured right away, Horvat took on the tougher match-ups, and Sutter himself wasn’t good enough to be a 2nd line C).

Benning’s Pro Scouting moves, pre-2017, were terrible for the most part, but the logic behind those decisions was the correct logic.

Anyways - getting back to the topic: Jay Beagle. If the Canucks are in a cap crunch during and Beagle has one year left on his contract, he’ll be easily moved with retention (and yes, I realize that he has a modified NTC).

 

[4Twenty]

He’s a bad NHLer but the way Green runs the bench makes him appear even worse to the detriment of the team.

 

[MS]

Unfortunately, signing those contracts were the lesser of two evils. The far worse “evil” in this case, would have been playing or promoting the young players within our system that wouldn’t have been ready for said roles. Gaunce himself wasn’t ready for NHL duty (I’m assuming that you’re referring to the time when we traded for Prust?).

Guys like Richardson and Dowd wouldn’t have been able to fill the void of the 2nd line C (which is why we had originally traded for Bonino, and which is why we had moved Bonino for Sutter...the Canucks wanted a guy that could fill the temporary void of 2nd line C, while allowing Horvat to grow his game a little more in lesser roles (ie 3rd line C). Obviously, things didn’t work out that way (ie Sutter got injured right away, Horvat took on the tougher match-ups, and Sutter himself wasn’t good enough to be a 2nd line C).

Benning’s Pro Scouting moves, pre-2017, were terrible for the most part, but the logic behind those decisions was the correct logic.

You could put literally anything on the ice and it would be churning out a better result than our 4th line has in the last 30 games.

Again, Beagle and Schaller combined : 53-0-0-0 -26.

That line is the worst line in the NHL. They are so, so, so bad.

 

[F A N]

Every team has checking lines that start overwhelmingly in the d-zone.

No other team has a checking line that plays ~12-13 minutes/game and hasn't scored a goal in 30 games while getting mutilated in terms of territory and scoring chances to this extent.

Beagle is one of the worst players in the NHL and we aren't even half-way through his $12 million deal.

Name some 4th lines that have started in the D zone more often and faced a higher level of competition than the Canucks' 4th line.

 

[Horse McHindu]

You could put literally anything on the ice and it would be churning out a better result than our 4th line has in the last 30 games.

Again, Beagle and Schaller combined : 53-0-0-0 -26.

That line is the worst line in the NHL. They are so, so, so bad.

I’m not really sure what happened. Schaller-Beagle-Motte were getting high praise for quite awhile there. Was Motte really the guy driving that line to a significant degree? I’m not sure how that line went to receiving such high praise to being such a terrible line.

I think our 4th line will improve once Sutter (and hopefully a healthy Ferland) return to the line-up.