Speculation: Jake Gardiner’s UFA contract

[Fatass]

I can't wait till next year when the Leaves are even worse on the defensive end, who the fans are going to blame for being so terrible. Reilly, Muzzin, Sandin? They will be substantialy worse once Gardiner leaves, see last last 13 games. They have gone 7-5-1 while allowing 48 goals against and scoring 47.

Maybe the Leafs replace Gardiner with a UFA who costs a lot less?

 

[mouser]

6 years x $6.25m to $6.5m

 

[Dog]

Going to be good amount probably 7 to 8 million.

 

[Marner]

depends on if he is healthy or not.

 

[Srsly]

I can't wait till next year when the Leaves are even worse on the defensive end, who the fans are going to blame for being so terrible. Reilly, Muzzin, Sandin? They will be substantialy worse once Gardiner leaves, see last last 13 games. They have gone 7-5-1 while allowing 48 goals against and scoring 47.

Even without Gardiner they'll be better than they've been the last 13 games. It's commonly believed that Dermott is going to see time anchoring the second pair next season. He's not as good as Gardiner but he's better than some of the players we've been giving ice time with both of them out. I hope we somehow find a way to keep him as he makes us a stronger team. I just don't think there's a way for it to work without shedding some other less desirable contracts. He might take a discount but even then, I doubt he'll sign for much less than 6million.

I think Gardiner either signs with the leafs for 5.5-6mil or gets picked up by a team like Vancouver or Montreal for 6.8mil for 5 years using Shattenkirk as a comparable.

 

[hizzoner]

Maybe the Leafs replace Gardiner with a UFA who costs a lot less?

For sure. There are a lot of RD out there that will be top 4 in the NHL that Leafs can get cheap. I will just check my list.....

 

[mitchthemitch]

7x7 mil. 50 point dman is getting paid. Horrible defenseman but some team will pay him.

He's an excellent defenseman. A solid #3 on any team.

 

[Fatass]

Even without Gardiner they'll be better than they've been the last 13 games. It's commonly believed that Dermott is going to see time anchoring the second pair next season. He's not as good as Gardiner but he's better than some of the players we've been giving ice time with both of them out. I hope we somehow find a way to keep him as he makes us a stronger team. I just don't think there's a way for it to work without shedding some other less desirable contracts. He might take a discount but even then, I doubt he'll sign for much less than 6million.

I think Gardiner either signs with the leafs for 5.5-6mil or gets picked up by a team like Vancouver or Montreal for 6.8mil for 5 years using Shattenkirk as a comparable.

Why would the Habs or Canucks have to pay more than
TO? Likely Gardiner heads south anyway, so he can play in anonymity. I still see him getting 7 from a US team.

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

$5.5-6. Brady Skjei signed a deal last year for $5.25. They compare straight across the board.

Past 3 years Gardiner is 22nd overall in points and 9th in +/- and despite what your eyes might tell you, advanced stats love him.

Gardiner

124 PTS 224 GP +50

Skjei

85 PTS 231 GP -25

On points alone almost 50% more in less GP. Obviously one is older than the other and different contract status. Based on comparables he could easily command $7 but he isn't worth it IMO.

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

I can't wait till next year when the Leaves are even worse on the defensive end, who the fans are going to blame for being so terrible. Reilly, Muzzin, Sandin? They will be substantialy worse once Gardiner leaves, see last last 13 games. They have gone 7-5-1 while allowing 48 goals against and scoring 47.

They've also been without Dermott, Kadri, Kapanen, Hyman and others over chunks of that stretch.

 

[PhoenyX]

The Leafs have struggled immensely without Gardiner in the lineup. In my opinion, this will sway the Leafs brass to re-sign Gardiner in the off-season for 6 years / $36 million.

 

[Canada4Gold]

In the 6-7 million range. I don't think the back injury will affect the AAV too much, but I think it could lower the term a little bit. Not sure anyone will want to hand out a 7x7 to him with that concern now added on.

 

[Nothingbutglass]

The Leafs have struggled immensely without Gardiner in the lineup. In my opinion, this will sway the Leafs brass to re-sign Gardiner in the off-season for 6 years / $36 million.

With what money?

 

[Martin Skoula]

He's going to want a retirement contract. I think he'll take a lower AAV for guaranteed term. Unlikely it's with the Leafs though. Something around 7x6.5 seems right.

 

[HogtownSabresfan]

The Leafs have struggled immensely without Gardiner in the lineup. In my opinion, this will sway the Leafs brass to re-sign Gardiner in the off-season for 6 years / $36 million.

$6???

LOL. I'd go $7.5 M to get him in Buffalo and maybe seven years. The abuse this guy gets in TO is absurd. Great #3 D man, maybe a #2

 

[Magic Man]

5 years at 6.35M

 

[TheKrebsCycle]

I wouldn't be surprised at near 7 million for term. He's an analytical hero, even if his reputation amongst Leafs fans indicates otherwise.

For all the hype around his (lack of) defensive play, he has a very good goals against rate over the past 3 seasons. Much lower than guys like Rielly and Zaitsev.

He's +50 over 3 years, and is good for 40+ points per year.

xGF of 61, xGA of 46.8.

He has the lowest goals against/60 on the Leafs this year at 2.02 (even strength) while starting more often in the defensive zone than the offensive zone.

Someone will give him the dough.

This is a great post. Basically taking some of the things I alluded to and running w it. Gardiner is an excellent dman 97 percent of the time. The other 3 percent can be an absolute adventure tho.. Zone exists, possession, offensive instincts are A plus.

 

[Michel Beauchamp]

What will Gardiner get as a UFA? I’m guessing he’s a 7 million dollar guy. Is that too much, or is it about term?

$5.2-5.5M on a 4- or 5-year deal is the max he SHOULD get.

What he WILL get is probably $6-6.5M.

 

[Michel Beauchamp]

I wouldn't be surprised at near 7 million for term. He's an analytical hero, even if his reputation amongst Leafs fans indicates otherwise.

For all the hype around his (lack of) defensive play, he has a very good goals against rate over the past 3 seasons. Much lower than guys like Rielly and Zaitsev.

He's +50 over 3 years, and is good for 40+ points per year.

xGF of 61, xGA of 46.8.

He has the lowest goals against/60 on the Leafs this year at 2.02 (even strength) while starting more often in the defensive zone than the offensive zone.

Someone will give him the dough.

Another example of why the so-called "advanced stats" are the Emperor New Clothes.

Remember Franson ?

 

[sharks9]

I'd be willing to give him 6.5 from MTL, but I know I wouldn't like the term he'd want. 4 years? Great! 7 years? Hell no!

 

[Rabid Ranger]

How can so many posters be so wrong about a player?

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

I don't think his contract will be bad, unless his injury is more severe than I realize. He's an excellent skater and should age well

 

[Namikaze Minato]

How can so many posters be so wrong about a player?

HF is full of posters who think they know more about hockey than anybody else, except they don’t.

 

[96]

People here are tossing around figures like $7million.

As a Leafs fan all I can say is that I hope one of the other 30 teams in the NHL are the ones offering him that. He is a good offensive defensman, but that kind of money would be much better spent elsewhere (eg. being put towards signing Marner, Kapanen and Johnsson). Frankly with Toronto getting another LHD recently in Muzzin who is both cheaper (for one more year after this season) and overall better we can afford to let Gardiner walk.

Beaides, behind Morgan Rielly (and his stupidly good $5million contract), Muzzin and Zaitsev (whose contract is...less good), the Leafs have Dermott who looks ready for full-time second pairing duty and Liljegren who has been solidly developing in the AHL and should be ready for 3rd pairing time next season.

Lol. Which Liljegren are you pretending you’re watching? Timmy ain’t ready for the show.

 

[Torontoborn]

I can't wait till next year when the Leaves are even worse on the defensive end, who the fans are going to blame for being so terrible. Reilly, Muzzin, Sandin? They will be substantialy worse once Gardiner leaves, see last last 13 games. They have gone 7-5-1 while allowing 48 goals against and scoring 47.

Clearly with a comment like that shows that you are just a stat watcher and haven't actually watched any games if you think the reason the Leafs haven't been playing well is because Gardiner isn't in the line up.