Player Discussion Jake DeBrusk II

[member 96824]

How about Charlie McAvoy for Auston Matthews? Or Pasta for Nylander?

I'll take McAvoy and Pasta every day but if you want to beat the Leafs on the ice, you need to beat them at the negotiating table. And not just the Leafs, every team in the league.

It starts right from draft day and the Bruins have been building around character for years and part of that character is taking a discount to be on a competitive team. I think that's what they expected when they drafted Jake.

The reality is you get paid for numbers.
Johnsson contract year: 73 games, 20 goals, 23 assists (0.58 ppg)
Debrusk contract year: 65 games, 19 goals, 16 assists (0.53 ppg)

Kapanen was also 0.56 ppg.

To be honest, I'll be disappointed with Sweeney if Debrusk isn't paid less than those two.

Good god you are a dancer.

So are you saying you value Jake DeBrusk less than Andreas Johnsson or do you agree with me?

 

[BruinsBtn]

Good god you are a dancer.

So are you saying you value Jake DeBrusk less than Andreas Johnsson or do you agree with me?

Good god you are thick.

So you are saying you value two $4.9m Charlie McAvoys at the same as one $11.6m Auston Matthews? Would you trade two McAvoys for one Matthews, or do you agree with me?

 

[ON3M4N]

His last two months of the season.

January 7th to February 8th
- 7 goals 7 assists 14 points in 13 GP

February 9th through March 10th
- 1 goal 1 point in 14 GP

Absolutely on fire, and then he disappears. I didn't really look back much further because when I went to his game log that slapped me right in the face... but he's definitely got streaks like that throughout his first 3 years.

That's kind of cherry pick stats, no? All you did his pick out his longest cold streak for goal scoring. Again (as a posted before) for the season he on average went 3.6 games between goals and 2.4 games between recording a point. You're point to 1 cold streak, which all players that are not superstars run into a season.

 

[member 96824]

Good god you are thick.

So you are saying you value two $4.9m Charlie McAvoys at the same as one $11.6m Auston Matthews? Would you trade two McAvoys for one Matthews?

No but I’m also not making the case that Matthews contract is the comparable for McAvoy’s.

I also didn’t even ask about any of them. I asked if you would swap DeBrusk for Johnsson.

 

[BruinsFanSince94]

No but I’m also not making the case that Matthews contract is the comparable for McAvoy’s.

I also didn’t even ask about any of them. I asked if you would swap DeBrusk for Johnsson.

I'll answer. Hell no.

 

[TwineTickler]

That's kind of cherry pick stats, no? All you did his pick out his longest cold streak for goal scoring. Again (as a posted before) for the season he on average went 3.6 games between goals and 2.4 games between recording a point. You're point to 1 cold streak, which all players that are not superstars run into a season.

I mean I fully admitted that I didn't look further... and then said he has had streaks like that over his 3 years. Obviously he's not consistently THAT streaky, but he's had his stretches. Yes, everyone is prone to slumps. I like JD, was just answering your question. 3.6 games between goals and 2.4 between points isn't that bad, never said otherwise.

--- Just did a quick run through of the rest of his year.. pretty consistent. So clearly if he didn't fall off the map at the end of the year... and who knows why he did, he would have most likely had his best year thus far

 

[Smitty93]

I guess one of the questions is what do we think makes sense based on contract length. Money is being thrown out in this thread where people are arguing about different contract lengths. Here's where I'd put it:

2 yrs - $3.75M
3 yrs - $4.125M
4 yrs - $4.5M
5 yrs - $5M
6 yrs - $5.5M

The 6 yr deal is based on Konecny's deal. Konecny signed for 6 yrs/$5.5M before last season. Their prior two seasons were similar, and considering DeBrusk stayed flat this year, I'd say he'd still be in-line for Konecny's deal, especially with a flat cap.

 

[BigBadBruins7708]

I give him a prove it bridge deal.

He's too inconsistent and his effort especially is too inconsistent for my liking.

He has talent but so far in his career is he isn't scoring a goal he brings nothing else to the table and is prone to long stretches of floating.

Plenty of time to turn it around, but I'd want to see him do it before going north of $5 mill a year

 

[ON3M4N]

I give him a prove it bridge deal.

He's too inconsistent and his effort especially is too inconsistent for my liking.

He has talent but so far in his career is he isn't scoring a goal he brings nothing else to the table and is prone to long stretches of floating.

Plenty of time to turn it around, but I'd want to see him do it before going north of $5 mill a year

I can see the effort inconsistency, but as mentioned earlier the kid this year had an average of 3.6 GP between goals and a 2.4 GP average between points. That doesn't scream inconsistent to me.

 

[MattFromFranklin]

I guess one of the questions is what do we think makes sense based on contract length. Money is being thrown out in this thread where people are arguing about different contract lengths. Here's where I'd put it:

2 yrs - $3.75M
3 yrs - $4.125M
4 yrs - $4.5M
5 yrs - $5M
6 yrs - $5.5M

The 6 yr deal is based on Konecny's deal. Konecny signed for 6 yrs/$5.5M before last season. Their prior two seasons were similar, and considering DeBrusk stayed flat this year, I'd say he'd still be in-line for Konecny's deal, especially with a flat cap.

If it's a 6 year deal I think that price would be an overpay. Konecny is a better player.

 

[Smitty93]

If it's a 6 year deal I think that price would be an overpay. Konecny is a better player.

2020 Konecny is a better player. 2017-18 & 2018-19 Konecny (i.e. the 2 season before his extension prior to this past season) is very similar to DeBrusk. Both at 1.1 5-on-5 Goals per 60 and 2.1-2.2 5-on-5 Points per 60.

 

[ON3M4N]

2020 Konecny is a better player. 2017-18 & 2018-19 Konecny (i.e. the 2 season before his extension prior to this past season) is very similar to DeBrusk. Both at 1.1 5-on-5 Goals per 60 and 2.1-2.2 5-on-5 Points per 60.

That's why I like to look at the 3yr numbers as it tends to snuff out those outlier years of performance (good or bad)

 

[BigBadBruins7708]

That's why I like to look at the 3yr numbers as it tends to snuff out those outlier years of performance (good or bad)

and hides the fact that 1 player was stagnant and had a production drop, while the other took the next step to a nearly PPG player (0.92 ppg).

DeBrusk is the 2nd coming of Michael Ryder.

 

[ON3M4N]

and hides the fact that 1 player was stagnant and had a production drop, while the other took the next step to a nearly PPG player (0.92 ppg).

DeBrusk is the 2nd coming of Michael Ryder.

and next year they could flip the other way, that's why looking at one year of production is a poor way to judge players. Players have down years and players have career years. Look at last year and all those people that had a hard on for Dzingel because he was playing at a 60+ point pace for OTT. People (here and other sites) wanted to give up a package including a 1st rounder for the guy and then sign him to extension because they thought he was 60+ point player suddenly. Funny thing the 3 years prior to that he was a 0.43 P/GP player (37pts over 82 games). Guess where Dzingel's production was this season? It was at 0.45 P/GP or right around his career average.

Give me a 3yrs of data vs 1yr of data everyday of the week when looking at a players production.

 

[BruinsNetwork]

If it’s a long-term deal, I think it’s probably closer to that of Colin White’s— 6 x $4.75m.

Will it be a two to four year deal? Or will it be four to six years? That’s a toss up, IMO.

 

[Colt.45Orr]

I like the player, but he's been too streaky so far. He reminds me of Ryder in a lot of ways. When he's on, he's impressive, but he has not shown the consistency needed from a top line winger. In my opinion, he was the same in the WHL.

 

[b in vancouver]

He seems like such a personality and team guy. If a team finds a guy like that with skill, keeping that player is crucial.

Hopefully someday he will be wearing an “A”, spreading positive team attitude, helping young players develop and take on that same positive work hard mentality.

Much like, in my eyes, what Chara and Bergeron do.

Long term 5 mill isn’t out of the question. He has a lot of room to grow as a player. We haven’t seen his best yet.

I have no idea money-wise as the financial landscape is changing by the day and I don't know how that will affect contracts...
However, I whole-heartedly agree with the sentiment. DeBrusk and Carlo are the kind of players that winning teams need. Probably toss Coyle in there also. These guys aren't going to get the press of their flashier teammates but you really want to hold onto these kind of players as they make the Team work.

IMO Landeskog is the gold-standard of this kind of player from this young generation. The Bruins don't have that player but our version are these guys and you need them.
I think Louie taught his son well and the kid, to all appearances, seems to be really well liked and understands what being on a Team is about.

 

[BruinsBtn]

No but I’m also not making the case that Matthews contract is the comparable for McAvoy’s.

I also didn’t even ask about any of them. I asked if you would swap DeBrusk for Johnsson.

Your point was that contract value is trade value. I gave you a perfect example of why it's not.

 

[ON3M4N]

DeBrusk avg GP between G and Pts from his rookie season to now.

	'17-'18​	'18-'19​	'19-'20​
Avg GP between G	4.5​	2.8​	3.6​
Avg GP between Pts	2.0​	2.2​	2.4​

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

His GP between G by season has been up and down with last season being his smallest gap and this season better than his rookie season. His GP between PTS has gone up for 3 seasons, but a very small amount. If you average these, his avg GP between goals is 3.6 and his average GP between PTS is 2.2 for his career.

Interesting to note that in his best season for assist, his top 3 linemates he assisted for were at 5v5 Krejci, Spooner and Heinen/Chara. Overall for his career its Krejci, Pastrnak and Cehlarik/Spooner. Be interesting to see if DeBrusk could pick up some more assist if he had another shooter to play with consistently. IDK if he just doesn't have the vision to set guys up or what, but outside of Pastrnak, none of the guys listed are know for goal scoring.

 

[Baddkarma]

Not sold on DeBrusk's consistency or durability. At this point it would be a 3.5x2 bridge or trade if he refuses to sign.

 

[ON3M4N]

Just for fun lets see who can guess player X (JD74 #'s are for comparison). I did the last two seasons as its kind of time consuming to calculate the averages

2018-2019 Season
GP between Goals
Player X = 5.7
DeBrusk = 2.8

GP between Points
Player X = 2.7
DeBrusk = 2.2

2019-2020 Season
GP between Goals
Player X = 4.3
DeBrusk = 3.6

GP between Points
Player X = 2.3
DeBrusk = 2.4

 

[Aussie Bruin]

It's not the goals that are streaky to me, it's his play. There was a stretch last season when he was a crazy puck hound, feet moving all the time, forcing turnovers. Then there were long stretches this year where he would take two strides and coast. I just want to see consistency in the hustle.

This is broadly my thinking too. Yes his production is steaky, but it’s only part of the story. Often when he’s not contributing on the scoreboard, to the eye it looks like he’s not as engaged in the game either, his effort drops a bit and he’s not doing the little things as well as he otherwise does. But the eye can be deceiving so I thought I’d do a little stat comparison. In 10 games between Jan 7 & Feb 1 this year DeBrusk was hot and logged 6 goals and 6 assists. Then he had a definite cold streak and in 10 games between 9-29 Feb he had no points. The Bruins went 7-2-1 in the first period and 7-3-0 in the second, so the overall team performance was much the same. Let’s look at a few of Jake’s numbers through each 10-game block:

Corsi CF% Average
Jan 7-Feb 1: 60.12. High of 79, two low games at 45.
Feb 9-29: 55.09. High of 71, two low games at 30 and 38.

Scoring/High Danger Scoring Chance % Average while on ice
Jan 7-Feb 1: SCF% 63.48%, HDCF% 72.37%
Feb 9-29: SCF% 55.58%, HDCF% 49.33%

Goals For/Against while on ice
Jan 7-Feb 1: 16 GF, 6 GA
Feb 9-20: 1 GF, 6 GA

Shots
Jan 7-Feb 1: 33
Feb 9-20: 19

Hits/Hits Taken
Jan 7-Feb 1: 2 hits, 15 taken
Feb 9-20: 13 hits, 9 taken

Blocks
Jan 7-Feb 1: 4
Feb 9-20: 2

TK/GV
Jan 7-Feb 1: 6/2
Feb 9-20: 3/1

Rebounds Created
Jan 7-Feb 1: 4
Feb 9-20: 5

There’s a definite difference across the board between the 2 blocks: in the first, not only is he producing, but he’s shooting more, blocking more and working harder/better to win the puck. He’s taking more hits, which suggests he’s on the puck or where the action is more often, and the team is scoring and creating quality chances when he’s on the ice a heap more – 16 goals verses just 1 in the second block, and a HDCF% of 72% verses 49%. However I certainly wouldn’t say he wasn’t trying or not making any impact at all in the cold patch and he doesn’t become irresponsible – interestingly, he hit a lot more during this time, and his giveaways don’t increase. The CF% average of 55 across those 10 games is still perfectly respectable, but it’s notable that there are 2 games where he was flat out bad, which doesn’t really happen at all in the first 10.

I’m sure there are other relevant metrics you could look at, and this is only a small sample and his linemates have to take their share of responsibility for some of the numbers. But I think what you can tentatively say is that when he’s in form and scoring he’s also doing other things well around contesting and winning the puck, creating good chances and helping the team put goals on the board, and really getting in the game, being in the right places and putting his body on the line. Conversely when he’s struggling and not producing he’s having reduced impact on most aspects of the game. He’s not a liability – the turnovers and goals/chances against don’t increase much at all, and there are definite indicators that he’s still trying to work his way into the contest – he’s just not offering a whole lot to create opportunities for his team to build pressure and score.

So IMO the difference in performance between the productive and unproductive patches isn’t massive but it does seem to be observable. Whether it comes down more to effort, touch, fitness or the way in which he’s reading the play is hard to say. He’s young and there’s plenty of time for improvement. Probably what he needs to do in the lean times, which everyone has, is just work on staying in the game more and finding more ways to impact it and make a positive contribution even if the production or touch aren’t quite there.

 

[MattFromFranklin]

Not sold on DeBrusk's consistency or durability. At this point it would be a 3.5x2 bridge or trade if he refuses to sign.

I don't think Debrusk's trade value is all that high and it would need to be for an upgrade in our top 6, and I don't see that happening. I'd be all for it if some team was willing to deal us an upgrade, though. I think DeBrusk stays on a bridge deal as I don't see an offer sheet happening.

 

[Jean_Jacket41]

He owns the Leafs and the Habs. That’s worth an extra 500k to me.

 

[kdog82]

DeBrusk for Boeser?