Player Discussion Jake DeBrusk II

[Mathews28]

Sweeney should go back to the well with Anaheim and propose a hockey trade: Jake Debrusk for Rickard Rakell.

Or to OTT for Brady Tkachuk.

 

[MattFromFranklin]

I don't think there's any realistic scenario in which DeBrusk gets dealt. It would be horrible PR for Sweeney to trade him or not match an offer sheet (if some team is dumb enough to extend one) unless we get an upgrade in our top 6, and I don't see that happening. Moving him for a D would create a 2nd hole in our 2nd line, and this is the 3rd straight season where there has been a big hole in our top 6. I don't think a lot of teams will be banging down Sweeney's door for a 40-43 point winger with consistency issues. Even if some team is stupid enough to extend an offer sheet for $5-6 million per, I don't see any way that Sweeney doesn't match it.

 

[Shroud of Orrin]

He just hasn't put it all together. Maybe he never will but that '14/'15 season in Swift Current showed he can. He killed it on a weak team. Would love to see 10 lbs of muscle and keep the wheels. Screams buy low to me. Another team guy. Go long and enjoy the future value. It makes no sense to me to deal him or not match (which is fantasy).

 

[JOKER 192]

If McAvoy only got 4.9M why does DeBrusk get more? McAvoy >>>DeBrusk . DeBrusk should get something in the 3's like 3.25AAV for 2 years. It's early to tell what DeBrusk will become. He also has zero leverage.

 

[Aussie Bruin]

Seems a touch high. Looking at production over the last 3 years:

Bridge = Jakbu Vrana - 2yr/$3.35 mil
Long Term = Alex Tuch - 7yr/$4.86 mil

I think the Vrana deal is particularly instructive. Last year he was the same age as DeBrusk and had just put together a couple of seasons that were decent but weren’t quite at Jake’s level. As you say he got $3.35 mil p.a. for 2 years. He then went and had his best season by a clear margin and well and truly outperformed DeBrusk, but that’s post-signing so not really relevant in terms of measuring their status at the point of negotiating a new deal. So I would say that DeBrusk’s in a slightly better position that Vrana was – he has a few more runs on the board, and he’s filling a role that the Bruins will find harder to fill than the Caps would have, which gives him some extra leverage. That probably puts him up into around $3.75-3.95 mil p.a. territory on a 2-3 year contract, which I’d consider reasonable. Go over 4 and you’re overpaying or hoping that DeBrusk follows up with the kind of year Vrana just had, which may or may not happen.

As for a long-term deal, well if Tuch can net himself $33 mil over 7 years then Jake’s in the ballpark for something around that mark or that even pushes up to $5 mil p.a. I wouldn’t pay it, but there may be 1 or 2 GMs that would. Again, if I’m Sweeney I’d be very reluctant to match that at this point. Personally I consider it bad business to pay a guy substantially more than you think he's worth just to stop someone else getting him. You flex a little, but not too much.

 

[ON3M4N]

I think the Vrana deal is particularly instructive. Last year he was the same age as DeBrusk and had just put together a couple of seasons that were decent but weren’t quite at Jake’s level. As you say he got $3.35 mil p.a. for 2 years. He then went and had his best season by a clear margin and well and truly outperformed DeBrusk, but that’s post-signing so not really relevant in terms of measuring their status at the point of negotiating a new deal. So I would say that DeBrusk’s in a slightly better position that Vrana was – he has a few more runs on the board, and he’s filling a role that the Bruins will find harder to fill than the Caps would have, which gives him some extra leverage. That probably puts him up into around $3.75-3.95 mil p.a. territory on a 2-3 year contract, which I’d consider reasonable. Go over 4 and you’re overpaying or hoping that DeBrusk follows up with the kind of year Vrana just had, which may or may not happen.

As for a long-term deal, well if Tuch can net himself $33 mil over 7 years then Jake’s in the ballpark for something around that mark or that even pushes up to $5 mil p.a. I wouldn’t pay it, but there may be 1 or 2 GMs that would. Again, if I’m Sweeney I’d be very reluctant to match that at this point. Personally I consider it bad business to pay a guy substantially more than you think he's worth just to stop someone else getting him. You flex a little, but not too much.

I'd have no issue with JD74 at $5m for 7yr. He ranks as one of the top 20 goal scoring LW since entering the league and he's only 23yr old

 

[Aussie Bruin]

I'd have no issue with JD74 at $5m for 7yr. He ranks as one of the top 20 goal scoring LW since entering the league and he's only 23yr old

I'm not quite there. 7 @ 4.5 sign him up, no hesitation. But 5+ and I start to factor in other things - what happens elsewhere on the roster and with the other free agents, and who else is out there that would be interested and able to come to Boston as a top 6 fwd and at what price? If those things fell in a way that it makes sense to give DeBrusk a more substantial long-term deal then fine, go ahead and do it. But I wouldn't if they don't, just for the sake of retaining him.

 

[member 96824]

I'd have no issue with JD74 at $5m for 7yr. He ranks as one of the top 20 goal scoring LW since entering the league and he's only 23yr old

$5M for 7 years would be a steal. Tough to imagine the DeBrusk camp going for it but I’d sign that no hesitation tonight.

 

[b in vancouver]

I'm not un-biased. He hasn't put it all together yet but I really liked DeBrusk in juniors and was happy The Bruins drafted him. I really like his skill-set, head for the game, work ethic and team focus... I think he'll be wearing a letter on his sweater in a few years. Easy to envision the day when him and Carlo are the under-rated heart and soul of this team. I'm sure he'll take a sweetheart deal that has people outside shaking their heads. I think this kid 'gets it' and is going to be a big part of the next generation of Bruins.

 

[ON3M4N]

I'm not quite there. 7 @ 4.5 sign him up, no hesitation. But 5+ and I start to factor in other things - what happens elsewhere on the roster and with the other free agents, and who else is out there that would be interested and able to come to Boston as a top 6 fwd and at what price? If those things fell in a way that it makes sense to give DeBrusk a more substantial long-term deal then fine, go ahead and do it. But I wouldn't if they don't, just for the sake of retaining him.

DeBrusk over 82 games averages out to a 25G/23A winger (and he's still developing). You'll be hard pressed to find a winger that can give you 25G and around 50 points for $4.5 million. There isn't much out there in the UFA market and the closest guy to DeBrusk that was going to be there was Kreider....and he signed for 7yr/$6.5 million. Maybe you could go with Toffoli who was making $4.6 in his old deal, but using the same CH% and factoring today's cap, that would be a roughly a $5.2 million cap hit.

As for the rest of the roster, Krug is kind of the linch pin in everything. If he's not returning then you have some extra room to make a bigger long term deal. If Krug is coming back then you probably have to bridge DeBrusk. What confuses me is your willing to basically pay $4 million for 2-3 years, but not willing to lock him up for 4 to 5 more years for an extra million a year. That $1 million difference is a 4th liner or 7th d-man.

 

[BruinsBtn]

DeBrusk over 82 games averages out to a 25G/23A winger (and he's still developing). You'll be hard pressed to find a winger that can give you 25G and around 50 points for $4.5 million. There isn't much out there in the UFA market and the closest guy to DeBrusk that was going to be there was Kreider....and he signed for 7yr/$6.5 million. Maybe you could go with Toffoli who was making $4.6 in his old deal, but using the same CH% and factoring today's cap, that would be a roughly a $5.2 million cap hit.

As for the rest of the roster, Krug is kind of the linch pin in everything. If he's not returning then you have some extra room to make a bigger long term deal. If Krug is coming back then you probably have to bridge DeBrusk. What confuses me is your willing to basically pay $4 million for 2-3 years, but not willing to lock him up for 4 to 5 more years for an extra million a year. That $1 million difference is a 4th liner or 7th d-man.

Why should he get more than Kapanen and Johnsson from the Leafs. Almost identical numbers in their contract years

 

[BruinsFanSince94]

DeBrusk over 82 games averages out to a 25G/23A winger (and he's still developing). You'll be hard pressed to find a winger that can give you 25G and around 50 points for $4.5 million. There isn't much out there in the UFA market and the closest guy to DeBrusk that was going to be there was Kreider....and he signed for 7yr/$6.5 million. Maybe you could go with Toffoli who was making $4.6 in his old deal, but using the same CH% and factoring today's cap, that would be a roughly a $5.2 million cap hit.

As for the rest of the roster, Krug is kind of the linch pin in everything. If he's not returning then you have some extra room to make a bigger long term deal. If Krug is coming back then you probably have to bridge DeBrusk. What confuses me is your willing to basically pay $4 million for 2-3 years, but not willing to lock him up for 4 to 5 more years for an extra million a year. That $1 million difference is a 4th liner or 7th d-man.

People are getting too hung up on his point total and not looking at his PPG production during each season. The kid shows he's can score 20-25+ and that's with some long stretches of zero production. Its a risk. Maybe he doesn't find the consistency but if he does, you have a kid who's capable of scoring 30+ goals. Hell, he scored 27 last season.

 

[Durnberg]

He seems like such a personality and team guy. If a team finds a guy like that with skill, keeping that player is crucial.

Hopefully someday he will be wearing an “A”, spreading positive team attitude, helping young players develop and take on that same positive work hard mentality.

Much like, in my eyes, what Chara and Bergeron do.

Long term 5 mill isn’t out of the question. He has a lot of room to grow as a player. We haven’t seen his best yet.

 

[DiggityDog]

I would be pretty surprised if he gets more than $3.75 per over 2 or 3 years. He has no leverage and is no different than any of these players coming off an ELC. I expect him to be a Bruin for a while, but he isn’t a $6 million player, at least he isn’t yet.

Do the bridge deal, simple NHL infrastructure and business

Haggerty is in the business of hot takes and crap reporting to get people riled up. You are better than that, if you don’t know that by now than there’s nothing I can do for you.

 

[DiggityDog]

He seems like such a personality and team guy. If a team finds a guy like that with skill, keeping that player is crucial.

Hopefully someday he will be wearing an “A”, spreading positive team attitude, helping young players develop and take on that same positive work hard mentality.

Much like, in my eyes, what Chara and Bergeron do.

Long term 5 mill isn’t out of the question. He has a lot of room to grow as a player. We haven’t seen his best yet.

I agree with you on the “Spark Plug” type. He definitely is a guy who can revitalize a team in a game with his exuberance

 

[Aussie Bruin]

DeBrusk over 82 games averages out to a 25G/23A winger (and he's still developing). You'll be hard pressed to find a winger that can give you 25G and around 50 points for $4.5 million. There isn't much out there in the UFA market and the closest guy to DeBrusk that was going to be there was Kreider....and he signed for 7yr/$6.5 million. Maybe you could go with Toffoli who was making $4.6 in his old deal, but using the same CH% and factoring today's cap, that would be a roughly a $5.2 million cap hit.

As for the rest of the roster, Krug is kind of the linch pin in everything. If he's not returning then you have some extra room to make a bigger long term deal. If Krug is coming back then you probably have to bridge DeBrusk. What confuses me is your willing to basically pay $4 million for 2-3 years, but not willing to lock him up for 4 to 5 more years for an extra million a year. That $1 million difference is a 4th liner or 7th d-man.

I don't like long term for a guy who still hasn't made fully clear what his ceiling is unless it's at a really really good price. I agree, he's still developing, he's definitely got a talent for scoring and I think he's more likely than not to cement himself as a genuine 2nd line winger who's regularly good for north of 50 points per season, but I'm just not convinced enough yet to be comfortable with him getting a long commitment. He's streaky, occasionally goes through patches where he doesn't do the one-percenters as much as he should, quite often doesn't contribute much else when he's not producing on the scoreboard, and, though you hate to say it, already has a slightly concerning concussion history. All these things can be improved on and hopefully will be, but IMO it's not a given.

Of course you can argue that if he did get a long-term deal and it didn't pan out then you could just trade him, but it's not always that simple. If his price is too high and he's not meeting his monetary value, whether through form or injury, then he may not be so easy to shift.

This is all largely immaterial anyway, as it's near certain that if he stays in Boston it'll be on a bridge deal and then we'll all get to see what the next step of his career progression is before we're back here debating his value again in 2-3 years' time.

 

[member 96824]

If I'm Jake's agent, I'm also pointing out that bringing up this season is a fair criticism, however every player goes through cold spells. It took 13 games for him to get his 2nd goal on the board. That was certainly a big deal. After that, he got back to his normal 27 goal pace with 18 goals in 53 seasons.

I'd be pointing to Brock Boeser getting 5.875, acknowledging that DeBrusk does get fewer assists than Brock but is put in lesser opportunities to score and has a revolving door at right wing and asking 5.25.

 

[ON3M4N]

Why should he get more than Kapanen and Johnsson from the Leafs. Almost identical numbers in their contract years

they signed 3 and 4 year deals, were talking about a 7 year deal here. No way does DeBrusk sign a 7yr deal for under $3.5 million. DeBrusk over the last 3 years also has a better G/GP and P/GP

 

[ON3M4N]

I don't like long term for a guy who still hasn't made fully clear what his ceiling is unless it's at a really really good price. I agree, he's still developing, he's definitely got a talent for scoring and I think he's more likely than not to cement himself as a genuine 2nd line winger who's regularly good for north of 50 points per season, but I'm just not convinced enough yet to be comfortable with him getting a long commitment. He's streaky, occasionally goes through patches where he doesn't do the one-percenters as much as he should, quite often doesn't contribute much else when he's not producing on the scoreboard, and, though you hate to say it, already has a slightly concerning concussion history. All these things can be improved on and hopefully will be, but IMO it's not a given.

Of course you can argue that if he did get a long-term deal and it didn't pan out then you could just trade him, but it's not always that simple. If his price is too high and he's not meeting his monetary value, whether through form or injury, then he may not be so easy to shift.

This is all largely immaterial anyway, as it's near certain that if he stays in Boston it'll be on a bridge deal and then we'll all get to see what the next step of his career progression is before we're back here debating his value again in 2-3 years' time.

I mean most guys at 23yr old are not going to give you a clear idea of their ceiling unless they are a superstar already. I'd also say that outside of the best of the best goal scorers, they are all streaky in that department. If you think about it, if a player scores 30 goals over an 82 games season (assuming he only scores 1 goal in a game), he'll have 52 games where he doesn't score a goal or roughly 63% of the games.

Sure you can wonder if it doesn't worth about, but you have to weigh what if it does. If DeBrusk takes that next jump and becomes a 30/30 guy, he'd be a steal at $5 million a year and when the cap starts to increase again it'd look even better for the team. Even at a 50pt winger a $5 million cap hit is market value now and will only look better if he keeps producing.

Personally I'm ok with either a bridge or long-term deal, but again I think a lot depends on what happens with Krug

 

[Smitty93]

If I'm Jake's agent, I'm also pointing out that bringing up this season is a fair criticism, however every player goes through cold spells. It took 13 games for him to get his 2nd goal on the board. That was certainly a big deal. After that, he got back to his normal 27 goal pace with 18 goals in 53 seasons.

I'd be pointing to Brock Boeser getting 5.875, acknowledging that DeBrusk does get fewer assists than Brock but is put in lesser opportunities to score and has a revolving door at right wing and asking 5.25.

The counter argument is that Boeser scores 32% more points per game (0.82 vs 0.62). Then, DeBrusk's agent counters that he's a proven-playoff performer.

I think if DeBrusk had shown more improvement from year-to-year, he could argue for more money. I think Boeser has shown more potential for stardom, while DeBrusk has shown he's a good, but inconsistent player. We've seen that teams will pay a premium for stars, or potential stars. You could also bring up the difference in taxes, but that's more complicated, and I don't know how much agents use it as an argument, unless they're comparing a Canadian team to one of the teams with no state income tax.

That Boeser contract is somewhat of an outlier, and DeBrusk is not an outlier here. He fits more with all of the other forwards who have gotten the standard 2 yr, $3-3.5M bridge deals, and then he gets a small bump up from that. He doesn't have much leverage if no one's going to offer sheet him, and I doubt anyone would.

 

[member 96824]

Why should he get more than Kapanen and Johnsson from the Leafs. Almost identical numbers in their contract years

Not comparable unless you think GMs, Agents, etc. only look at things in the scope of one year.

Let's look at the entire ELC. I'm not knocking Kapanen or Johnsson, they're fine players...but Jake DeBrusk does not represent the same risk that they did at the time of expiration. Jake's significantly more established and posting better numbers than they were at the time of signing.

Jake DeBrusk: 203 games, 62 goals, 120 points
Kasperi Kapanen: 133 games, 28 goals, 54 points
Andreas Johnsson: 82 games, 22 goals, 46 points

Why shouldn't Jake DeBrusk get more?

 

[BMC]

People are getting too hung up on his point total and not looking at his PPG production during each season. The kid shows he's can score 20-25+ and that's with some long stretches of zero production. Its a risk. Maybe he doesn't find the consistency but if he does, you have a kid who's capable of scoring 30+ goals. Hell, he scored 27 last season.

Yes, it is the lack of consistency that is holding him back IMO. Yup he can score 20- 25 goals a year. Great. But I'd much rather see that production spread out over 82 games than have him score 10 in 13 games and then do nothing the next 20. I realize players have cold stretches but with DeBrusk it seems a chronic issue so far in his career. If he can fix that fine, pay the man. Otherwise no.

 

[member 96824]

The counter argument is that Boeser scores 32% more points per game (0.82 vs 0.62). Then, DeBrusk's agent counters that he's a proven-playoff performer.

I think if DeBrusk had shown more improvement from year-to-year, he could argue for more money. I think Boeser has shown more potential for stardom, while DeBrusk has shown he's a good, but inconsistent player. We've seen that teams will pay a premium for stars, or potential stars. You could also bring up the difference in taxes, but that's more complicated, and I don't know how much agents use it as an argument, unless they're comparing a Canadian team to one of the teams with no state income tax.

That Boeser contract is somewhat of an outlier, and DeBrusk is not an outlier here. He fits more with all of the other forwards who have gotten the standard 2 yr, $3-3.5M bridge deals, and then he gets a small bump up from that. He doesn't have much leverage if no one's going to offer sheet him, and I doubt anyone would.

I don't think anyone looks at either for their play making ability and they're deadlocked in scoring for the last 2 years.
Jake DeBrusk's most common opposing wings by quarter this season according to Dobber: Brett Ritchie, Karson Kuhlman, Danton Heinen, Chris Wagner. Center bounces between Krejci and Coyle
Boeser: JT Miller, JT Miller, JT Miller, Tanner Pearson. Center is Elias Petterson.

DeBrusk's last 2 years: 46 goals in 113 games played
Brock Boeser last 2 years: 42 goals in 126 games played

Despite Brock Boeser playing 3 minutes a night more than DeBrusk. PP time alone, this past season, Brock plays 4 minutes a night on the power play, DeBrusk plays 2:34

Long way of saying, just using PPG is lazy and those assists don't discount DeBrusk by 2 million a year. Brock Boeser had a better rookie season than Jake DeBrusk, but since then, DeBrusk has been the better goal scorer.

 

[MattFromFranklin]

If I'm Jake's agent, I'm also pointing out that bringing up this season is a fair criticism, however every player goes through cold spells. It took 13 games for him to get his 2nd goal on the board. That was certainly a big deal. After that, he got back to his normal 27 goal pace with 18 goals in 53 seasons.

I'd be pointing to Brock Boeser getting 5.875, acknowledging that DeBrusk does get fewer assists than Brock but is put in lesser opportunities to score and has a revolving door at right wing and asking 5.25.

The issue is that DeBrusk has a track record of being inconsistent and going through dry spells. During those times, he doesn't contribute much of anything. For a guy who plays with someone of the caliber of David Krejci and gets top 6 minutes, let alone someone who was the 14th overall pick in one of the best drafts in NHL history, that is inexcusable. He needs to be more consistent and start putting together some 50-60 point seasons.

 

[ON3M4N]

Yes, it is the lack of consistency that is holding him back IMO. Yup he can score 20- 25 goals a year. Great. But I'd much rather see that production spread out over 82 games than have him score 10 in 13 games and then do nothing the next 20. I realize players have cold stretches but with DeBrusk it seems a chronic issue so far in his career. If he can fix that fine, pay the man. Otherwise no.

I did this quickly between meetings so some of the numbers might be off by a digit here or there. Below is a breakdown of his games between goals. Outside of the 7 games to start the season and the 10 games towards the end, he averaged about 3 games between goals.

7
4
3
2
3
2
3
1
4
2
10
3