Jake Allen 2018-19

[HighNote]

I've said it before, I'll say it again. I think Allen has done decent given the circumstances.

 

[GoldenSeal]

Doug Armstrong, you got us the players yet screwed up again and couldn't get us the plan? What gives, man?

 

[Ranksu]

I've said it before, I'll say it again. I think Allen has done decent given the circumstances.

I think Allen is good goaltender and starter in different team/system, but he just doesn't fit in our defensive system and that's one reason he hasn't reach his potential in here at stats wise. Worse goaltender who rely position play and good rebound control would record better stats compare to Allen in Blues. Currently it doesn't matter who is playing in net result wise, 'cus the whole 5 man unite is totally mess.

Blues needs time out and reset everything. New coach would be right move now. I don't believe Yeo can turn this ship anymore. Its shame, 'cus I believed in him.

 

[Ranksu]

I found something interesting about Blues worst goaltending.

Phil Myre at eliteprospects.com

1. 
   Phil Myre
   Years with Team: Two
   Worst Season: (1978-79): 39 GP, 9-22-8, 4.33 GAA
   It was the worst season in the history of the St. Louis Blues.
   Only 18 games won during the entire season, all of which were won by Phil Myre and Ed Staniowski. Myre had a horrible two years with the Blues. Blame it on just not being a perfect match because he had a better record with Philadelphia in his following two seasons, but either way, the Blues need someone to blame for the worst record in franchise history. It may as well be the goalies, and Myre took the most heat in his entire stay, so it is his why he was the worst goalie in St. Louis Blues history.

 

[varano]

I can understand where this is coming from, but we've seen Allen play at a higher level than this for extended stretches before. He was very solid three years ago, and at the very least serviceable two years ago, so I disagree that this is who he has always been.

If you're going to expect better play from everyone, and rightfully so, I don't think it's unfair to expect improvement from him as well. He might not have the same ceiling that other players on the team have, but that doesn't mean there isn't reasonable room for significant improvement.

This is my point. This stuff only happens to a goalie in a couple situations
A) Change in goalie coach screwing with mechanics
B)Drastic change in team system
C)Something going on in between the ears.

Literally...these are the three reasons.

 

[Ranksu]

This is my point. This stuff only happens to a goalie in a couple situations
A) Change in goalie coach screwing with mechanics
B)Drastic change in team system
C)Something going on in between the ears.

Literally...these are the three reasons.

A) we can confirm. Corsi and Brodeur were guys who choosed Allen vs. Elliott for long term and future #1. They both are gone now.
B) I don't see our defensive system has changed drasticly, but maybe something what refers to dmens taking charge/join in the rushes, but I don't see it affect our d-zone coverage, only at o-zone more breakaway changes which isn't anytime good thing for team no matter what kind of system team is playing.
C) Its possibility for sure. Allen does have some mental issue when he let one soft goal and it affect big time his pefrom level, Allen becomes 'shakey' and it affects also for dmens and forward too. They will collapse and play passive, it looks like everybody tries to block every shot which creates more space around and it make it worse and note that Allen is quite poor goaltender when he's screened + rebound control medicore = chaos.


I'm known as big Husso fan, but he has ability to shake out bad goal(s) and rebound while game is progressing and that also affect players too. Calm them down.

I Still view Allen not having success in Blues has mainly for reason his gamestyle isn't fitting for Blues system.

 

[carter333167]

The modern goaltender, with the size of the pads and the size of most goaltenders (6-1 to 6-4), is a position based on geometry, science and a bit of luck. Get in the proper position, stay quiet and, as Lundqvist has said in several interviews, hope the puck hits you.

Jake diverts from this fundamental style far too often so, in a sense, every aspect of his advanced stats are attributable to and a predictable result of his style. He gives up better chances to the initial shooters b/c he shows those shooters more net.

Put another way, while all goaltenders rely on a tad of luck, Jake's style makes him even more reliant on luck. He is like a Blackjack player who constantly hits on 15.....he'll have some hot streaks but, in the end, he won't be consistent and the odds will catch up to him.

 

[BadgersandBlues]

The modern goaltender, with the size of the pads and the size of most goaltenders (6-1 to 6-4), is a position based on geometry, science and a bit of luck. Get in the proper position, stay quiet and, as Lundqvist has said in several interviews, hope the puck hits you.

Jake diverts from this fundamental style far too often so, in a sense, every aspect of his advanced stats are attributable to and a predictable result of his style. He gives up better chances to the initial shooters b/c he shows those shooters more net.

Put another way, while all goaltenders rely on a tad of luck, Jake's style makes him even more reliant on luck. He is like a Blackjack player who constantly hits on 15.....he'll have some hot streaks but, in the end, he won't be consistent and the odds will catch up to him.

Yea, if you look at the still photos from last page, so many of those goals he's deeeep in the blue paint compared to a lot of other NHL goalies.

 

[Saint Loser]

Goalie

 

[KingBran]

The question is has Yeo changed the defensive system to try and shore up what he perceived as shortcomings to Jakes game, and as a result, he's messed up the entire situation? It wouldn't be the first time a coach has tried to alter the team's system to help out a goalie.

Man Allen just gets excuses from all over. It's the D's fault, its Yeo's fault... etc.

How about when the D was great in front of Allen and he was still letting in softies? I challenge you to think he is just exposed more because now that the D is playing bad, it's really exposing how bad Allen is too. He is not good - statistically. Yes, the D is bad in front of him but he isn't helping himself at all.

 

[67Blues]

Man Allen just gets excuses from all over. It's the D's fault, its Yeo's fault... etc.

How about when the D was great in front of Allen and he was still letting in softies? I challenge you to think he is just exposed more because now that the D is playing bad, it's really exposing how bad Allen is too. He is not good - statistically. Yes, the D is bad in front of him but he isn't helping himself at all.

You completely missed my point. Allen is not good, I think you won't find many to argue against that point. The issue I was bringing up is that is it possible that Yeo has tried to change the defensive system to try and shelter Allen even more than our defense has in the past? But, in doing that, he's created confusion and the results we see is a worse defensive scheme.

In no way am I making excuses for Allen at all. His position has always been horrible. He is a guess goalie at best, and I've never seen a goalie worse at tracking a puck through traffic than him.

 

[FMichael]

What would you guys give us in return if we sent Jimmy Howard your way?

 

[Evocable Manager]

What would you guys give us in return if we sent Jimmy Howard your way?

Jake Allen and Jay Bouwmeester

Have a nice day

 

[67Blues]

I checked Husso's stats. They aren't very impressive with a very Allen-eske sub .900 save percentage. Is he struggling or is the team just bad in front of him?

 

[542365]

Since Jake took over the starting gig in 15-16

.920/2.35
.915/2.42
.906/2.75
.886/3.64

He's gotten progressively worse each season. Granted the defensive structure of the team has gotten worse as well, but you should expect improvement from a goaltender in ages 25-28, not decline. That's an indictment on the coaching staff as much as it is on Jake.

The only time he really "figured it out" for an extended period of time was right after Marty talked with him and tried to help and early in his career before his childhood goaltending coach was brought back in. Maybe a competent coach and NOT the guy who has been his coach his entire life would be able to salvage his career? What could it possibly hurt?

I don't know that there is any salvaging his career at this point unless he pulls a Dubnyk, but we have to try something. We're stuck with him for the next couple years regardless. I contend that he's a lost cause and doesn't have the mental fortitude to be a high level NHL goalie, but if we're stuck with him we might as well try to make him as good as possible.

 

[TK 421]

I checked Husso's stats. They aren't very impressive with a very Allen-eske sub .900 save percentage. Is he struggling or is the team just bad in front of him?

It sure would be nice if Nate could give us some insight here.

 

[Oberyn]

I checked Husso's stats. They aren't very impressive with a very Allen-eske sub .900 save percentage. Is he struggling or is the team just bad in front of him?

SA is bad, no questions about that. I can't speak to how Husso is performing though.

 

[Majorityof1]

It sure would be nice if Nate could give us some insight here.

They do a weekly podcast. Last one was 6 days ago, so there should be another soon. I have no idea how regular they are though.

Link: Running With the Herd

 

[Stealth JD]

Somebody has to be the worst player on the team, or the worst player at their position in the league. Unfortunately the Blues have a couple of guys in the LVP running, and Yeo isn’t going to stop going to that well unless Army takes it away.

 

[KingBran]

You completely missed my point. Allen is not good, I think you won't find many to argue against that point. The issue I was bringing up is that is it possible that Yeo has tried to change the defensive system to try and shelter Allen even more than our defense has in the past? But, in doing that, he's created confusion and the results we see is a worse defensive scheme.

In no way am I making excuses for Allen at all. His position has always been horrible. He is a guess goalie at best, and I've never seen a goalie worse at tracking a puck through traffic than him.

I apologize. You are right, I did misunderstand what you were saying.

 

[BlueDream]

You can't really hold onto leads when your goalie is never going to bail you out.

This guy just isn't good enough.

 

[Brian39]

Where do you get your goalie stats? Corsica?

Just curious, because some of the sources don't always 100% agree on their shot classifications, and I prefer to talk apples to apples with people when I can.

I agree that Allen hasn't been the team's worst player (*cough* Bouwmeester *cough*), but I wouldn't say he's been helping the team.

As you pointed out, he has a 100% save percentage vs LDS per Corsica, but he's also ranked 22nd out of 25 qualifying goalies (min 200 minutes, all situations) in expected save percentage, 20th in MDS save percentage, 18th in HDS save percentage, and 23rd in goals saved above average (comparing league average save percentage to individual shot percentage for each of the shot danger types, then applying that difference to number of shots faced, and summing all the totals).

For those that prefer just looking at ES numbers, out of 18 qualified goalies with a minimum of 200 minutes, he's ranked 16th in expected save percentage, 14th in medium danger save percentage, 16th in high danger save percentage, and last in goals saved above average.

I'm not projecting anything for him based on a 5 game sample size, or even based on his numbers from last year. I just don't buy into the notion that he hasn't cost us some goals himself.

This is a bit of a tangent, but for those who are concerned about the rates that the Blues are giving up odd-man breaks and such, naturalstattrick tracks those for goalies.

According to them, Allen has faced the 10th most odd-man breaks/60 (out of 20 qualified at 200 minutes of 5v5) at 1.59 per 60 minutes. Smith has seen the most at 2.66/60, with the average at about 1.58 odd-man breaks/60.

With regards to rebounds, Allen has faced the 6th most out of 20 qualified at 4 rebounds/60 minutes at 5v5. Elliott has faced the most at 6.06 rebounds/60 minutes. Average is around 3.37 rebounds/60.

Far from great numbers, but I'll bet they are better than some would have guessed. At the very least, those two issues are clearly not the reason why Allen is facing so many high danger chances.

Where the defense has really been letting Allen down is average shot distance. Allen's 20th out of 20 in average shot distance faced at 29.52', with the average being around 36'. Not surprisingly he's also 20th out of 20 in high danger chances faced per 60 at 12.2, with the average being about 8.3-ish. All that confusion within the defensive zone are where the uncharacteristic number of high danger scoring chances are really coming from, not the odd-man breaks or the rebounds.

Sorry for the long delay in response. I was out of town for a wedding and have been super busy at work, so I'm well behind in this thread. Anyway, I use Corsica for pretty much any goalie-related stat. I have found them a bit more reliable than other good stat sites and I like their layout for the most part.

 

[Brockon]

I didn't want to be that guy and bring up that argument but it's a legit question. Until you've played in front of a horrible goalie who is prone to weak, back breaking goals, you don't know how different it is to playing with a goalie you have confidence in.

I'm not just blaming the goalie, I have never said the defense has been good. The defense has been good in the past and Allen was still struggling. He has always been a bad goalie and you can't say the same for the defense. Yeo is a bad coach and Allen is a bad goalie but I think we can both agree that the defense as individuals aren't bad.

Blues fans had high expectations coming into the season but we knew Allen had to be better. He hasn't been. He's still allowing the same bad goals game after game after game. Even if some of the goals could have been stopped by better defense, there are still bad goals going in. I believe the defense can rebound and better. I don't believe Allen can do the same. IMO, he is who he is at this point and he's not going to magically stop allowing those week goals.

Let's play devil's advocate briefly... If a poor goaltending performance can affect how defence plays, in that they alter their game slightly in an attempt to better compensate for said goaltender's faults, exposing exploitable tendancies for a good opposing team to take advantage of - could the opposite be true as well?

Could a good goaltender who has lost faith in his defence, question whether or not his defence has taken away the pass in a 2 on 1, hesistate a split second therefore exposing more net in attempt to cover both the pass and the shot?

Or for a defence that doesn't clear the crease, allow himself to shift slightly to better cover for deflections from the attacker that shouldn't be allowed to camp in the blue paint by a dcore, thereby exposing more openings for a shot from the puck carrier?

How about the default complaint against Allen - that he's constantly out of position... Could it be that he over commits, to take away space from the attackers, because his defence isn't doing it? The back door is left wide open, but if the defence was committed to taking away space, Allen wouldn't attempt to do so himself (however poorly and ill-advised said actions are)?

I'll admit seeing Allen swim/flail out of position attempting to make saves that would be routine had he been in position frustrates me - when he's on, he's absolutely incredible. So, what if it's not as one sided as most of us on the Board make it out to be? How many of you have stopped to consider the flipside of what a bad/poorly performing goalie does to his defence in front of him?

 

[Ranksu]

Is it right to hope Allen should get injured?

 

[EastonBlues22]

Is it right to hope Allen should get injured?

No.