Jake Allen 2018-19

Discussion in 'St. Louis Blues' started by Spektre, Oct 18, 2018.

  1. Spektre

    Spektre Registered User

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    I completely understand that Armstrong was in a rough situation concerning Allen this past offseason. Nobody knows if Army actually tried to trade Allen and couldn’t find any suitors. Saying that, this yet another of Armstrong’s own mistakes. Allen signed his 4 year contract on July 1st 2016. He’s played 5 games so far. He has a 3.91 gaa to go along .877 save percentage. He’s simply not a starting goalie in the NHL. He’s a decent to good backup but overpaid.

    We all knew the Blues needed changes at forward in the offseason. With the way last year ended, and that goal in the Chicago game, I was surprised Army didn’t find a way to ship Allen out. I get he’s not the easiest asset to move but neither was Lehtera. It’s just a little hard believing that Army went into this season confident in Allen.

    I don’t have some full proof answer but Jake Allen is by far the Blues weakest link on the ice. It’s extremely hard for any hockey team to be successful when your goalie is the worst player.
     
  2. Brian39

    Brian39 Registered User

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    Jake Allen has been pretty damn far from our worst player to start the year. We're allowing tons of high danger chances, which has led to Allen's expected 5 on 5 save percentage to be 31st of the 37 goalies with 100+ minutes at 5 on 5. In all situations, his expected save percentage is 38th of 43 goalies with 100+ minutes played. Only 3 goalies in the league have faced more high danger shots than Allen and one of those guys has an extra game played. That is basically the definition of hanging your goalie out to dry.

    For the record, Allen has allowed zero goals from low danger areas. He has had a couple softies, but to say he's been the team's worst player is absurd. I have a hard time believing that you have watched the first 6 games of the year if you honestly believe that he has been the worst player on the team in 2018/19.

    If you don't believe that and want to point to past play of Allen, then I'm not quite sure why you titled a new thread "Jake Allen 2018-19" instead of posting in either of the other two threads titled Jake Allen currently on the 1st page of this message board. Seems redundant.
     
    Last edited: Oct 18, 2018
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  3. Spektre

    Spektre Registered User

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    He’s the team’s weakest link because he’s counted on as a #1 goalie.

    You honestly think he’s only let in 2 soft goals? I’d say that opinion is what’s absurd.
     
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  4. BraydenSchenn

    BraydenSchenn Registered User

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    The entire team in and of its structure is the most glaring problem at the moment, which is sad considering Allen seems to leak goals in every game.

    But until the team structure improves (be it Yeo or another coach), it doesn't matter who's in goal, were going the lose.

    The team has shown an ability to score in spite of Yeo's inept offensive schemes and horrendous possession system. The potential of the team is very easy to see.
     
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  5. Ranksu

    Ranksu Crotch Academy ftw Sponsor

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    @Brian39 its cool you bring all those stats, but you have been maybe one the biggest fan boy of Allen. Always defended and searched reason not to blame him. There has been always excuse why not believe Allen doesn't suck when reality is he sucks. Shouldn't be #1 goaltender.

    Btw interesting read old Jake Allen threads and look what people have been thinking of Allen.
     
  6. HighNote

    HighNote Just one cup

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    Allen has been pretty good this year based on my expectations. He's given up a couple of soft goals, but besides those mistakes, he's been solid in between.

    If you replace Allen with a top 15 goalie, that in no way affects our horrid defensive scheme. If we fix our defensive scheme, Allen's numbers will improve. Let's start with the defense first.

    And just a disclaimer, I don't think Allen is great, I just think he's 2nd on the list of my concerns, the first of which being defense. If you fix that #1 on the list, #2 improves and we go from there.
     
  7. Stealth JD

    Stealth JD Get some beer...and some...cleaning products. Sponsor

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    Saturday could be ugly.
     
  8. Spektre

    Spektre Registered User

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    Toronto was shutout by Pittsburgh today so they’ll score 9 Saturday to keep their average around 4.5.
     
  9. HighNote

    HighNote Just one cup

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    I am ready. My liver is not.
     
  10. 67Blues

    67Blues Stay off my lawn

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    Wait a minute! Isn't Stillman involved with a beer distributorship? I'm beginning to see a conspiracy theory in the works that the worse the Blues play, the more drinking occurs, and the more profits the beer industry makes.

    Makes me go...hmmmmm.

    [​IMG]
     
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  11. Stupendous Yappi

    Stupendous Yappi Lead Hockey Lackey

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    I just don’t know if the team structure suffers because players aren’t confident (maybe subconsciously) in Allen. Are they trying to compensate and not embracing the team ?

    Or is Allen just getting a bunch of high quality shots to deal with that would make any goalie look mediocre?

    I think there is a relationship between Allen’s play and the play of the team as a whole. I’m just not that certain what’s the chicken and what’s the egg right now. Based on last season, I felt the team looked better in front of Hutton. More energetic and confident. But it’s just an impression and could have been my projections onto wha to was watching.

    I’d like to see Allen play behind this team playing well for a couple games and seen how he looks.

    I think finding a way to move Bouwmeester is a bigger problem right now. They could really use that cap space, amd the roster spot for a contributing player. I fear Bouwmeester is just done.
     
  12. Falco Lombardi

    Falco Lombardi AKA Dolph Ziggler

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    Jake Allen has nothing to do with the fact that the Blues give up more high danger scoring chances than any other team in the league. Has absolutely 0 to do with him.

    And if you’re someone that says “but the team plays bad because they don’t have confidence in him”, then understand that you are saying you have a team full of mentally fragile losers that we should never expect anything from because there will always be something. It’s the toughest sport to win and adversity is guaranteed.

    Has Jake been good? No, not really. He’s been below average to average.

    He’s not the reason or even the biggest part of the reason they’re 1-5
     
  13. EastonBlues22

    EastonBlues22 Administrator

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    Replacing Allen with a top 15 goalie might not affect the defensive scheme, but it would certainly decrease the number of goals the team is giving up...just like fixing the defensive scheme.

    What's more, there's no reason why the team can't work at "fixing" both simultaneously.
     
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  14. EastonBlues22

    EastonBlues22 Administrator

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    Where do you get your goalie stats? Corsica?

    Just curious, because some of the sources don't always 100% agree on their shot classifications, and I prefer to talk apples to apples with people when I can.

    I agree that Allen hasn't been the team's worst player (*cough* Bouwmeester *cough*), but I wouldn't say he's been helping the team.

    As you pointed out, he has a 100% save percentage vs LDS per Corsica, but he's also ranked 22nd out of 25 qualifying goalies (min 200 minutes, all situations) in expected save percentage, 20th in MDS save percentage, 18th in HDS save percentage, and 23rd in goals saved above average (comparing league average save percentage to individual shot percentage for each of the shot danger types, then applying that difference to number of shots faced, and summing all the totals).

    For those that prefer just looking at ES numbers, out of 18 qualified goalies with a minimum of 200 minutes, he's ranked 16th in expected save percentage, 14th in medium danger save percentage, 16th in high danger save percentage, and last in goals saved above average.

    I'm not projecting anything for him based on a 5 game sample size, or even based on his numbers from last year. I just don't buy into the notion that he hasn't cost us some goals himself.

    This is a bit of a tangent, but for those who are concerned about the rates that the Blues are giving up odd-man breaks and such, naturalstattrick tracks those for goalies.

    According to them, Allen has faced the 10th most odd-man breaks/60 (out of 20 qualified at 200 minutes of 5v5) at 1.59 per 60 minutes. Smith has seen the most at 2.66/60, with the average at about 1.58 odd-man breaks/60.

    With regards to rebounds, Allen has faced the 6th most out of 20 qualified at 4 rebounds/60 minutes at 5v5. Elliott has faced the most at 6.06 rebounds/60 minutes. Average is around 3.37 rebounds/60.

    Far from great numbers, but I'll bet they are better than some would have guessed. At the very least, those two issues are clearly not the reason why Allen is facing so many high danger chances.

    Where the defense has really been letting Allen down is average shot distance. Allen's 20th out of 20 in average shot distance faced at 29.52', with the average being around 36'. Not surprisingly he's also 20th out of 20 in high danger chances faced per 60 at 12.2, with the average being about 8.3-ish. All that confusion within the defensive zone are where the uncharacteristic number of high danger scoring chances are really coming from, not the odd-man breaks or the rebounds.
     
  15. HighNote

    HighNote Just one cup

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    I think we should try to fix both, I was just trying to make the point that the defense being garbage is a bigger issue that has more impact on the rest of the team. Having good team defense can make an average goalie look great (we've seen this before), but having a bad defensive system impacts many more aspects of the game than having a bad goalie (more defensive zone time, less clean breakouts, less offense, more turnovers, etc.). I'd rather decrease goals against and get the other positives that come with strong defense than decrease goals against and still get all those negative effects of a bad defense. I'm actually interested to see how our offense looks when we can transition the puck better and get more offensive zone time. Our offense has looked good, but it could be even better, just don't know.

    I hope we can upgrade our goaltending and fix our defensive system at the same time, but I have little faith that's going to happen.
     
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  16. Averman11

    Averman11 Registered User

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    No. You just don't get it do you? Have you ever played hockey?

    If you don't trust your goalie you have to change the way you think the game and play the game. Even if subconsciously they don't trust him, which I'm sure they don't, that quarter of a second makes huge difference in a speed game like hockey.
     
  17. varano

    varano Registered User

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    I think you're both right... It sucks having a crappy goalie but if you're not giving your goalie a chance to succeed and he's getting a ton of high danger zone shots, then theres more than one issue aside from goaltending.

    Signed,
    A goalie.
     
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  18. Falco Lombardi

    Falco Lombardi AKA Dolph Ziggler

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    Oh good lord. The “have you even played bro?” argument? Come on dude, that’s second only to personal attacks when it comes to low level IQ debating.

    Not that it matters in the slightest for this, but yes, I’ve played hockey. However, it’s not a prerequisite to know that the way the Blues are defending, it frankly doesn’t who is in net. It could be a fusion of Dominik Hasek and Patrick Roy and this team would still be giving up an unacceptable number of goals.

    There’s not one thing wrong with the team. It’s not the goalie is failing them or the team is hanging the goalie out to dry. It’s multiple things in every game.

    It’s easy (read: lazy) to scapegoat the goalie but it doesn’t solve all the problems. Honestly, firing Mike Yeo (something I’m in favor of) won’t solve all the problems.

    I’ll buy that part of the problem is a lack of chemistry (thanks of course to my superior intellect since I played) but that too isn't a catch all.

    It's a collective thing. And if you're just going to blame the goalie, you're letting 95% of the problem off the hook.
     
  19. Averman11

    Averman11 Registered User

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    I didn't want to be that guy and bring up that argument but it's a legit question. Until you've played in front of a horrible goalie who is prone to weak, back breaking goals, you don't know how different it is to playing with a goalie you have confidence in.

    I'm not just blaming the goalie, I have never said the defense has been good. The defense has been good in the past and Allen was still struggling. He has always been a bad goalie and you can't say the same for the defense. Yeo is a bad coach and Allen is a bad goalie but I think we can both agree that the defense as individuals aren't bad.

    Blues fans had high expectations coming into the season but we knew Allen had to be better. He hasn't been. He's still allowing the same bad goals game after game after game. Even if some of the goals could have been stopped by better defense, there are still bad goals going in. I believe the defense can rebound and better. I don't believe Allen can do the same. IMO, he is who he is at this point and he's not going to magically stop allowing those week goals.
     
  20. Celtic Note

    Celtic Note Living the dream

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    On the matter of trusting your goalie, I am a bit on the fence. As a former defenseman, the goalies didn’t impact my play. I was only focused on my play while on the ice. There also isn’t much time for anything other than simple thinking while on the ice. It’s mostly just “mantras”, instincts and muscle/choreographic memory. If you are thinking you are either one of the fastest thinkers around or you are chasing the play. So to that end, a goalie doesn’t impact your play.

    The converse of that is the emotional component. When a goal gets scored that is deflating, then there is a negative emotional connection. That can cloud your focus and reduce your energy. Maybe that happens with Allen in net. Maybe guys feel more stressed when he is in net and feel they have to play a mistake free game. I could buy that if I didn’t see so many errant mistakes I might be inclined to agree. But it looks like our mentality is let’s go score. It doesn’t seem to be the let’s not make a mistake thinking. Otherwise, why so many mistakes (structure discussion aside)?
     
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  21. varano

    varano Registered User

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    Ok Then lets ask this.... When allen was good, what was different? (Maybe two seasons ago?)

    I don't watch enough blues games to know if theres a glaring reason and I highly highly doubt shattenkirk was the reason.

    Is it a different system of play? Different goalie coach?
     
  22. Falco Lombardi

    Falco Lombardi AKA Dolph Ziggler

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    I would agree more if we hadn't seen a higher level. The goalie who stole the Minnesota series is in there. Now ironically, part of that was an incredible job by the defense.

    I don't understand why we aren't seeing that system now.
     
  23. DeuceNine

    DeuceNine Wall of Shame

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    He's the team's weakest link because it's easy for lazy ass Blues fans to point to a goal against in a position they do not understand, rather than attempting to analyze what led up to that goal. Every year, it's the same thing. Is he perfect? Of course not, and there's room for improvement. But if you rely on your goalie to steal you games the team is poorly constructed.
     
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  24. Falco Lombardi

    Falco Lombardi AKA Dolph Ziggler

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    Exactly and the Blues have not been reliant on a goalie stealing games at all in any point in recent memory. In fact, its largely been the opposite. It's probably part of the reason Ryan Miller failed and Brian Elliott succeeded.

    It's why I lean towards removing the coach and his failing system.
     
  25. Lancer

    Lancer Lord

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    Exactly.

    Also, I have been a HUGE Allen supporter over the years. About halfway through last season I was done. I just couldn't justify his great play before last season. It's not just blaming the goalie. What people don't get is that when someone criticizes Allen it doesn't mean they think Allen is the ONLY reason the Blues are so bad or that they need a perfect goalie in net or that you think they rely on the goalie to "steal" every game or some garbage like that.

    Allen is average to below average. I think most people would agree with that. So pointing it out as a weak spot on the team doesn't mean we are just some ranting-and-raving-goalie-hating-lazy-ass-blues-fan who doesn't understand the position. It means we have been watching (Blues) hockey for as long as we have been alive and want a damn cup. Allen is absolutely part of the problem. Would having a better team / system in front of Allen be helpful for the team? You betcha. Just like having a better goalie would be better for the team. I don't understand why people have to take it to one extreme or the other.

    ...Or pretend like people are saying there is some weird conspiracy with foil hat pictures on un-talented narfs just to get a few likes on their post.
     

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