Jack Hughes on pace to have worst rookie season by a 1st overall forward since Patrik Stefan in 1999

[AfroThunder396]

Should probably just put him on waivers tbh

 

[The Pale King]

LA will take him as a reclamation project. We'll give you Lewis and Toffoli.

 

[Auto Pilot]

Let’s see how he does away from John Hynes.

 

[Albatros]

This year Jack's rocking an ATOI of 16:02. Hall's was 18:13 his rookie year, Stammer's was 14:56 and Mackinnon packed a 17:21. Not really an accurate explanation except for Stammer.

It's highly misleading to talk about points after the first 24 games and then take TOI for the entire season. Stamkos was a PPG player by the end of the season once he got the ice time.

 

[The Ultimate Pielord]

It's highly misleading to talk about points after the first 24 games and then take TOI for the entire season. Stamkos was a PPG player by the end of the season once he got the ice time.

Do you have a source for TOI in the first 24 games of those seasons?

 

[unicornpig]

devils starting to be the oilers of the east.

 

[Leafs87]

Total bust!



Is he not the smallest 1st overall pick in almost forever? Kid will be fine once he gets bigger and stronger.

Patrick Kane player right away and he was very similar stature but had exact opposite stats. There was always questions about Jack. Hope he figures it out though cause he is very skilled

 

[Sam Spade]

He's a dwarf, the only thing I've seen him do that has impressed me is make a few nice passes. He will be fine though, too much talent there.

 

[ElysiumAB]

Give me a break. He isn't 65 lbs.

Source?

 

[Albatros]

Do you have a source for TOI in the first 24 games of those seasons?

According to HR he averaged exactly 11:00 in his first 17 games (2+2=4).

Around then Melrose got fired and he played 16:56 in the next seven (1+6=7).

So I think it's safe to say that instead of becoming a better player overnight he just needed a fair opportunity to prove himself.

 

[tsujimoto74]

Just for reference... anyone know historically what the best rookie seasons for an 18 year old out of the usntdp are?

I can't even recall another time that's happened. Nobody jumps from that league straight to the NHL. Eichel accelerated his high school education to play his draft year in the NCAA. Matthews went to Europe to play against men in a pro league. Patrick Kane played his draft year in the OHL. Every other American player I can think of who came up through the NTDP played in the NCAA or AHL or both between being drafted and playing in the NHL.

 

[These Are The Days]

He's physically under developed. I'd be much more concerned if he were 6' 3" and 220lbs. and struggling. Give him a year or two to fill out and get stronger and he'll be fine.

Someone sticky this at the top of the thread.

 

[goonybird]

Kick his ass out of hockey

 

[KevinRedkey]

None of those guys meet the criteria because they either played in the OHL, NCAA, or Swiss league before making the NHL not the USNTDP/USHL.

They all meet the criteria. You're just changing the criteria. lol

Problems with points:

1. Purely offensive metric, which can miss a fair bit. In Jack's case, it misses his fairly solid defense and excellent penalty differential, which have given him 2.4 Goals above average (he's +8 on penalties for the year in just 24 games, that's really good, tied for 10th in the league!)
2. Very luck-dependant. Jack's underperformed his expected fenwick shooting% by about 2.3 percentage points, good for about an extra goal if he shoots at a league average number (his individual expected goals is a little over 5, too). More notably, his team's scoring 0.7 fewer goals than expected goals with him on the ice at 5v5, which is not helping his assist numbers. He also only has 2 secondary assists on the season (10th on the devils, tied for 312th in the league). It's been long determined that secondary assists are mostly luck, especially for forwards. If his secondary assists and primary assists were equal and he had that extra goal, he'd be rocking a respectable 15 points, tied with MacKinnon and ahead of Stammer and Hall. The only difference is crappy luck.
3. Very usage-dependent. This one doesn't super apply to Jack, but it is worth noting that some of the biggest factors in point totals are powerplay time, overall icetime, and quality of teammates, none of which a player can control. Jack's seen some decent usage so it's not a big factor dropping his point totals, but it is worth noting.

Hughes hasn't been great, but he's not been terrible either. There's a solid argument that his rookie year's been better than Stammer, JT or Hall, and they all turned out just fine.

A question was asked and I answered it. I don't share the 'Hughes is a bust' opinion (just FYI).

 

[Motte and Bailey]

I think a lot of people misunderstood and thought I don’t like Jack Hughes as a player. He’s a fantastic player obviously he went #1 overall and will be a star just like almost every other #1 pick has been. Stamkos is a good example of a guy who took half a season to get it going in the NHL and let’s hope that Jack Hughes can bounce back in the remaining half of the season. One thing you have to worry about though is if he’s not physically ready for the NHL it’s a big risk to play him anyway. He could easily get hurt - look at Kotkaniemi right now - and you do not want a major injury with all the lost time rehabbing when he should be developing on the ice.

 

[Lumpy Grits]

They all meet the criteria. You're just changing the criteria. lol

Criteria was 18 year old nhl rookie, making the jump straight from the usntdp to the nhl.

 

[Puckstop40]

Imagine if his nightmare didn’t become a reality and if the Avs didn’t get screwed in the lottery again.

Hughes next to MacKinnon/Rantanen or Kadri/Landeskog.

Poor kid.

Getting screwed in 2017 helped us more than anything.

 

[GreatSaveLuongo]

Nucks will gladly trade a 2nd round pick to unite the Hughes brothers.

 

[Neutrinos]

Former 1st overall pick, Joe Thornton - who is 14th all-time in career points - had just 7 points in 55 games as a rookie

 

[Chips]

I’m not going to say it means anything for sure long term, but I thought it’d make more sense to start him against men, but less talented men. Give the guy some time in the minors.

 

[T REX]

He looked really skinny at the draft...I mean I was thinking...he's going to get killed. He needs to put on serious weight. He may turn out fine but he doesn't look physically ready to play in the NHL. Just mho

 

[McSpecial DraiBlend]

Kid has looked ok in the couple times I've watched. He will figure it out and be fine. Talent is there.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

Former 1st overall pick, Joe Thornton - who is 14th all-time in career points - had just 7 points in 55 games as a rookie

I'm sure we can count on the same kind of development happening.

 

[KevinRedkey]

Just for reference... anyone know historically what the best rookie seasons for an 18 year old out of the usntdp are?

Criteria was 18 year old nhl rookie, making the jump straight from the usntdp to the nhl.

In your first post it's players out of the usntdp. I answered.
Now you're saying straight from the usntdp to the NHL.
That's a different question, even though that's probably what you meant the first time.

Your 2nd question is harder to answer. It's a U-18 league, so most guys have to play elsewhere in their draft year. That means it's a somewhat obscure stat, and I definitely don't want to look a hundreds of individuals in depth enough to find it.

Edit: I've skimmed a ltttle out of curiosity. None of the big name players anbd/or high draft picks played in the NHL directly out of the usntdp or ushl immediately after being drafted. It's unlikely lower draft picks would go directly to the NHL, so Hughes is likely one of a very small number of players to make the jump at all. In fact, he may literally be the only one.

 

[KevinRedkey]

Criteria was 18 year old nhl rookie, making the jump straight from the usntdp to the nhl.

Screw it.. I looked in to anyways. Found a list of all the 18yr olds who have played in the NHL.
18-Year Old NHL Players - Regular Season Stats

USNTDP started in 02-03, so I only looked at players who started in the NHL then or later.
Only 66 players fit the criteria.
Not a single one other than Jack Hughes came directly from the USNTDP.

So, Jack Hughes holds the NHL record for the most points by an 18yrs old straight out of the USNTDP, without having gone to a different league beforehand, because he is literally the only player to ever do so. lol

Like I said... a very obscure record.

Edit:
Was informed the USNTDP started in 1996.
Checked the 23 players from 1996-02, and it's the same result. Only Hughes has done it.