Jack Eichel or Austin Matthews 17/18

[TheDoldrums]

I also think Mathews had a decent amount of puck luck.

This bad take is not supported by any metric. He lead the league in ixG/60. His underlying numbers suggest he should have scored more goals per minute than any other player in the league. Try again.

 

[Aerchon]

This bad take is not supported by any metric. He lead the league in ixG/60. His underlying numbers suggest he should have scored more goals per minute than any other player in the league. Try again.

I dont watch a lot of leafs. Mostly playoffs. From my limited viewing he seems very opportunistic in his goal scoring.

As far as I know there is no metric for puck luck. This is just my opinion. Dont lose any sleep over it.

 

[TheDoldrums]

I dont watch a lot of leafs. Mostly playoffs. From my limited viewing he seems very opportunistic in his goal scoring.

As far as I know there is no metric for puck luck. This is just my opinion. Dont lose any sleep over it.

I'm not losing sleep. But yes, there is a metric. Expected goals. How many goals should be scored given the shot volume and their location. Matthews rates extremely well in it. It's not luck why he scores so much, it's taking tons of shots from high danger areas.

 

[LordNeverLose]

I'm not losing sleep. But yes, there is a metric. Expected goals. How many goals should be scored given the shot volume and their location. Matthews rates extremely well in it. It's not luck why he scores so much, it's taking tons of shots from high danger areas.

He also had a 63% Ozone start rate, which might indicate why he's getting off so many shots from high danger positions

 

[TheDoldrums]

He also had a 63% Ozone start rate, which might indicate why he's getting off so many shots from high danger positions

No, not really.

I've always liked this post from machinehead that sums up a lot of my thoughts about zone starts

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showpost.php?p=125845231&postcount=123

Because ~60% of shifts start on the fly and a bunch more start in the netural zone, the Ozone start rate is only looking at a small sample of all the total shifts. I feel like when people say 63% Ozone start they imagine him starting in the Ozone 63% of the time, instead of 63% of the ~25% of shifts that are either O or D zone starts. Starting in the Ozone 13% more than average on that small sample of shifts isn't nearly enough of a factor to drastically change season-long metrics.

Also, he was first in ixG/60 at Corsica after score/zone/venue adjustments.

 

[Thorton02]

I still think Mathews will be better. The guys is a stud, playing with amazing young talent and for a coach that can put together a winner.

Eichel will probably break out this year, but Mathews broke out in his rookie year and you can expect him to get even better.

 

[Orfieus]

Marner...

 

[ijuka]

No, not really.

I've always liked this post from machinehead that sums up a lot of my thoughts about zone starts

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showpost.php?p=125845231&postcount=123

Because ~60% of shifts start on the fly and a bunch more start in the netural zone, the Ozone start rate is only looking at a small sample of all the total shifts. I feel like when people say 63% Ozone start they imagine him starting in the Ozone 63% of the time, instead of 63% of the ~25% of shifts that are either O or D zone starts. Starting in the Ozone 13% more than average on that small sample of shifts isn't nearly enough of a factor to drastically change season-long metrics.

Also, he was first in ixG/60 at Corsica after score/zone/venue adjustments.

If we're nitpicky, it'd actually be 26% more than average.

Mixing %s and % units like that can easily give someone a false impression.

 

[JetsHomer]

I think you misunderstood me.

I don't think it's a slam dunk to say Scheifele was even better than Matthews last year.

Lmao he outscored him by 13 points in 3 less games.

Saying it's debateable that Scheifele was better than Matthews is basically the equivalent of me saying it's debateable that Perreault had a better year than Kadri

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Lmao he outscored him by 13 points in 3 less games.

Saying it's debateable that Scheifele was better than Matthews is basically the equivalent of me saying it's debateable that Perreault had a better year than Kadri

Are you saying Perreault had a better year than Kadri?

 

[LeafFever]

Lmao he outscored him by 13 points in 3 less games.

Saying it's debateable that Scheifele was better than Matthews is basically the equivalent of me saying it's debateable that Perreault had a better year than Kadri

But Eichel is better than Matthews you said and he has worse numbers.

 

[Halla]

one guy hit 40goals as a rookie, the other hasnt hit 25 yet in 2 seasons. 44 goals in 88 total games vs 48 in 142
I know who my money is on

Matthews

 

[Halla]

it's funny that in all these leafs comps, the guy getting compared to the leaf (e.g. eichel, drai, ehlers, etc etc) always improved dramatically from their rookie year to their sophomore year......but for some reason nobody thinks any of the toronto rookies will improve in their 2nd years.

strange stuff.

notice as well the leafs guy is always being compared to a player that is older and has more experience in the league. anyone bringing up schiefele is having a laugh. 19 year old matthews smoked what schiefe the knife did in his draft +1, draft +2, draft +3, draft +4, AND draft +5

Matthews might not get 40g again, but his point total should easily go up. It would be less of a jump for him to get a similar ppg as eichels sophmore season compared to eichel himself.

35ish goals. 75-80pts. this kid is scary good

 

[Morbo]

it's funny that in all these leafs comps, the guy getting compared to the leaf (e.g. eichel, drai, ehlers, etc etc) always improved dramatically from their rookie year to their sophomore year......but for some reason nobody thinks any of the toronto rookies will improve in their 2nd years.

strange stuff.

not only that, they're expected to take a step back

 

[Plat]

Auston

 

[ek93]

Another one of these?

 

[wabagee]

Are you saying Perreault had a better year than Kadri?

Its pretty self explanatory?

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Its pretty self explanatory?

Saying "Scheifele was better than Matthews is basically the equivalent of me saying it's debateable that Perreault had a better year than Kadri" when he thinks Scheifele is better is the same as saying it's not debatable in his eyes to argue that Kadri was better than Perreault. Scheifele and Perreault are paired together and Matthews and Kadri are paired together by his ordering

Saying Perreault had an unquestionably better season than Kadri is pretty misguided

 

[wabagee]

Saying "Scheifele was better than Matthews is basically the equivalent of me saying it's debateable that Perreault had a better year than Kadri" when he thinks Scheifele is better is the same as saying it's not debatable in his eyes to argue that Kadri was better than Perreault. Scheifele and Perreault are paired together and Matthews and Kadri are paired together by his ordering

Saying Perreault had an unquestionably better season than Kadri is pretty misguided

And yet you think Matthews is as good as sheifele.

 

[Oilers Propagandist]

No brainer answer is eichel. In a full season for both I would say that eichel gets about 87 points and Matthews just below him at 69 points.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

And yet you think Matthews is as good as sheifele.

I think going forward he has a good chance to be, but I wouldn't say he was as good last year

 

[wabagee]

I think going forward he has a good chance to be, but I wouldn't say he was as good last year

I appreciate that and I'm not sure which way it will go. MP was a possession monster player last year and Kadri had career year! If these two teams ever meet in a make or break matchup it's for the cup! Then the s$$t will flow. Every fan should love the talent on these teams and stop the bickering.

 

[DapperCam]

I've only seen Bylsma mentioned once in this entire thread. He was the worst coach in the entire league. Every player with a decent sample size pre-Bylsma saw their scoring stats tank. During Bylsma's tenure, the Sabres were second last (basically on par with NJ) in even strength scoring. The Sabres had too much offensive talent to be that low.

As a result, Eichel had to basically do his own thing in opposition to the coach. This probably had a detrimental effect on his stats.

Hopefully a middle of the road, somewhat competent coach will improve the Sabres. Eichel's stats should rise accordingly.

Put Matthews on the Sabres last year, and he wouldn't have sniffed 40. HF would have threads about why a defensively responsible forward who doesn't score much was drafted so high.

 

[Beerz]

I dunno...both going to be great players and I don't think much will separate them either way once all is said and done.

 

[Sypher04]

Lmao he outscored him by 13 points in 3 less games.

Saying it's debateable that Scheifele was better than Matthews is basically the equivalent of me saying it's debateable that Perreault had a better year than Kadri

This is just more shallow logic on your part. 13 more points therefore he must have been better. He gets credit for producing, but that doesn't inherently make him better than Matthews was.

Matthews points per 60 = 2.86
Scheifele points per 60 = 3.03

So, right off the bat. If you even out their icetime, Scheifele still has 82 points, but Matthews gets 77

Scheifele played 69%+ of this season with only:
Laine - 64 in 73 (72 point pace) * Rookie
Wheeler - 74 in 82 (74 point pace)
Ehlers - 64 in 82 (64 point pace)
Perrault - 45 in 65 (57 point pace)

Matthews played 80%+ of this season with only:
Nylander - 61 in 81 (62 point pace) * Rookie
Brown - 36 in 82 (36 point pace) * Rookie
Hyman - 28 in 82 (28 point pace) * Rookie
****virtually 100% of his 5 on 5 time with Hyman

Matthews finished the season with 40 goals, 20 primary assists, and 9 secondaries
Scheifele finiished the season with 32 goals, 26 primary assists, and 24 secondaries

Their point differential is entirely in secondary assists, as Matthews actually had more primary points than Scheifele did. And it's not at all unreasonable to think they guy who plays more, with better players, gets more secondary assists.

Nevermind that Matthews is 5 year younger, better on faceoffs already, blocks more shots, and creates more scoring chances.




And hey, just for the fun of it:

Matthews season totals adjusted to match Scheifele's icetime... 45 goals, 22 primary assists, and 10 secondaries