Is McDavid overachieving due to division reallignment?

[5 14 6 1]

Nope, and if you think otherwise we're not watching the same hockey player. Tired of the "well he plays Ottawa 9 times crowd"

The North division has only 2 of the bottom 11 GA/G teams in the NHL (this is also largely affected by the huge numbers McDavid has dropped on them).
All other divisions have the same amount of teams, or more in that range.

OTT (North)
PHI (East)
BUFF (East)
SJ (West)
CHI (Central)
ANA (West)
DET (Central)
VAN (North)
STL (West)
NSH (Central)
CLB (Central)

Central (4), West (3), East (2), North (2)

To think he wouldn't be scoring like this against Buffalo, Detroit, Anaheim or the like is just laughable. He performed this well last year against every team in the league coming off a horrific knee injury, and this year he looks even more dominant.

 

[Connor McConnor]

"Defenseless" will depend on definition surely, but it would be more appropriate to look at the season as a whole without arbitrary deductions. Either way Ottawa has certainly been the defensively most porous team in years, probably since the mid-1990s Sharks.

So teams aren't allowed to get better as the season goes on? Seems to me as someone who actually watches hockey in the North, the defensive game of all the top teams has dramatically improved, especially in Toronto/Edmonton/Winnipeg. That was what OP was talking about. The teams came out flying to begin the season with some ridiculous scores, but since then we are seeing some very tight checking games. Edmonton vs. Winnipeg just had a 2 game series that had a combined 9 goals compared to earlier in the season when we had 3 games with a combined 30 goals.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

I mean, Connor McDavid could certainly never win an Art Ross in a different alignment, right? Impossible.

The correct answer, and the one that should terrify you if you're not an Oiler fan, is not that McDavid is dominating because he's in the North division.

He's dominating because he's still getting better, has not hit his peak yet, and Edmonton's supporting cast is improving.

McDavid, 2016-2017 season after 34 games:

12-28-40

McDavid, 2017-2018 season after 34 games:

12-28-40

McDavid, 2018-2019 season after 34 games:

19-30-49

McDavid, 2019-2020 season after 34 games:

20-37-57

McDavid, 2020-2021 season after 34 games:

21-39-60

 

[Tobias Kahun]

He'd still be a Ross favorite in a normal season, but obviously his scoring is so bonkers because of the division he plays in

What about last year when he had 57 points in 34

 

[Garthinater]

Suprised at the results.

The North division is the weakest defensively. So there is nothing wrong with admitting that mcdavids points are slightly inflated.

Here are his ppg for each season:
1.06
1.21
1.31
1.48
1.51
1.76

Every year he has increased his ppg which is quite impressive but his biggest increase is from last year to this and at least part of that is due to the divisional alignment.

 

[filinski77]

Maybe his 16% increase is due to him not starting the season 84% healthy?

Entirely possible, but impossible to determine if that is the root cause or not. Which is why I would rather wait to see how he performs in a normal 82gp season before making my mind to see if he's gone from a 120 to a 140 point caliber player.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

Suprised at the results.

The North division is the weakest defensively. So there is nothing wrong with admitting that mcdavids points are slightly inflated.

Here are his ppg for each season:
1.06
1.21
1.31
1.48
1.51
1.76

Every year he has increased his ppg which is quite impressive but his biggest increase is from last year to this and at least part of that is due to the divisional alignment.

After 34 games last year he had 57 points.

Explain that.

 

[snipes]

After 34 games last year he had 57 points.

Explain that.

Adding Barrie and Nurse taking massive strides are a more logical explanation.

We’ve always said his point totals would explode if he had some D men who could move the puck in transition as he’s so dangerous off the rush.

Well, we’re starting to see that. Not to mention he’s fully healthy and playing far and away the best hockey of his career at both ends of the ice.

 

[McFlash97]

Connor McDavid for the next few seasons will be at the height of his prime years. Personally I think he is under where he should be. Could easily have 70 points, but due to some phenomenal goaltending by Demko, Hellebuyck and bad luck on some empty nutters. He would absolutely tear a new one on some of the other divisions.

 

[Karl Eriksson]

Yes, so we should agree on the right deflator to apply. Maybe 0.92?

 

[5 14 6 1]

Long season. Not even close to being over. There are other players in the NHL and other teams other than McDavid.

With your behavior, you better hope the Oilers win the Cup and McDavid scores more goals than Matthews at seasons end. If not, you are going to eat ****.

People like you make me glad this site has an ignore button lol

 

[Machinehead]

I went with the first option, but I was caught between that and the second option.

I think it probably helps but people significantly exaggerate it.

Like, put the Oilers in the Pacific where they would normally be and McDavid is playing against the Sharks and the Ducks. Is that any worse?

The North might be the weakest division but I just don't think it's any worse than any normal weak division.

 

[AddyTheWrath]

Suprised at the results.

The North division is the weakest defensively. So there is nothing wrong with admitting that mcdavids points are slightly inflated.

Here are his ppg for each season:
1.06
1.21
1.31
1.48
1.51
1.76

Every year he has increased his ppg which is quite impressive but his biggest increase is from last year to this and at least part of that is due to the divisional alignment.

You realize he came off a huge injury last year right? That could have something to do with it

 

[Machinehead]

The thing with the North is, they don't have anybody scary like a Tampa or a Colorado. Even the Islanders shut teams down consistently. So I get the argument that McDavid doesn't have opponents capable of containing him.

But I would also argue -hot take- that the North has the highest floor, even with Ottawa. I know it's different because only 7 teams but still, the Flames are second to last and they're miles better than the 7th place teams in the West and the East and they would be in a playoff spot in the Central.

The Sabres are borderline not an NHL team and we get to play them 7 times. McDavid would absolutely gorge on the likes of Buffalo, Jersey, San Jose, Anaheim, and Detroit. Ottawa has more points than all of those teams.

I just talked myself into changing my vote.

 

[ManofSteel55]

He is torching the league but are his point totals impacted by being in the north division? If he played in another division would he be leading in points?

**i meant leading in points as he hasn't won ross yet but i can't edit poll q

He might have more points playing in the East. Can you imagine how badly he would torch Buffalo, and New Jersey? Or the West with Anaheim and San Jose? Oof.

 

[Hockeylife2018]

If you take out the games vs the oilers, ottawa isnt THAT terrible,

I mean there no philly that lets in 9 goals in 2 periods...

 

[Machinehead]

If you take out the games vs the oilers, ottawa isnt THAT terrible,

I mean there no philly that lets in 9 goals in 2 periods...

This is also true. No AV in the North.

God, he's so wretched.

 

[The Moose is Loose]

Suprised at the results.

The North division is the weakest defensively. So there is nothing wrong with admitting that mcdavids points are slightly inflated.

Here are his ppg for each season:
1.06
1.21
1.31
1.48
1.51
1.76

Every year he has increased his ppg which is quite impressive but his biggest increase is from last year to this and at least part of that is due to the divisional alignment.

You have to look at his PPG 34 games in, not the entire season

 

[Xspyrit]

McDavid and Draisaitl vs Ottawa this season, on the road :

McDavid : 0 G 1 A 1 Pt in 2 GP
Draisaitl : 1 G 1 A 2 Pts in 2 GP

McDavid and Draisaitl vs Ottawa this season, at home :

McDavid : 3 G 12 A 15 Pts in 5 GP
Draisaitl : 6 G 9 A 15 Pts in 5 GP

Without these 5 home games vs Ottawa :

McDavid : 18 G 27 A 45 Pts in 29 GP, 1.55 PPG (he had 1.52 PPG last season)
Draisaitl : 12 G 23 A 35 Pts in 29 GP, 1.21 PPG (he had 1.55 PPG last season)


I'll let everyone figure out the answer for this poll. Ottawa can't defend on the road to save their life. It's not a coincidence, Ottawa is 7-6-3 and a +1 differential at home. They are 4-14-0 and -44 differential on the road... Basically 2 completely different teams.

Need to note that Ottawa struggles on the road are mainly vs the Canucks and Oilers. Not destroyed too much vs Calgary and Winnipeg and hanged in there vs Montreal and Toronto

I also see that McDavid has 8 pts in 2 home games vs the Flames.

 

[The Moose is Loose]

If you take out the games vs the oilers, ottawa isnt THAT terrible,

I mean there no philly that lets in 9 goals in 2 periods...

Yeah they mess up the leafs and flames

 

[VinikToWinIt]

He'd win it anyways, but he definitely gets to pad his stats a bit this year. Much like the multitude of playoff points he racked up against the 12th place Blackhawks.

But hey, he's playing the cards he's dealt and he's playing them well. Strange times for everyone.

 

[Satoru Gojo]

I honestly think the North is harder then the Pacific so voting option 2

 

[Garthinater]

You have to look at his PPG 34 games in, not the entire season

After 34 games last year he had 57 points.

Explain that.

You realize he came off a huge injury last year right? That could have something to do with it

Not trying to start an argument.

But I am curious, do you feel like no player in the north division has inflated stats?

I remember in the matthews thread people were saying that his goal scoring was inflated due to who he's playing against.

 

[DropTheGloves]

McDavid and Draisaitl vs Ottawa this season, on the road :

McDavid : 0 G 1 A 1 Pt in 2 GP
Draisaitl : 1 G 1 A 2 Pts in 2 GP

McDavid and Draisaitl vs Ottawa this season, at home :

McDavid : 3 G 12 A 15 Pts in 5 GP
Draisaitl : 6 G 9 A 15 Pts in 5 GP

Without these 5 home games vs Ottawa :

McDavid : 18 G 27 A 45 Pts in 29 GP, 1.55 PPG (he had 1.52 PPG last season)
Draisaitl : 12 G 23 A 35 Pts in 29 GP, 1.21 PPG (he had 1.55 PPG last season)


I'll let everyone figure out the answer for this poll. Ottawa can't defend on the road to save their life. It's not a coincidence, Ottawa is 7-6-3 and a +1 differential at home. They are 4-14-0 and -44 differential on the road... Basically 2 completely different teams.

Need to note that Ottawa struggles on the road are mainly vs the Canucks and Oilers. Not destroyed too much vs Calgary and Winnipeg and hanged in there vs Montreal and Toronto

I also see that McDavid also has 8 pts in 2 home games vs the Flames.

Annnnd now we've arrived at the point of removing home games from a player's total to try and diminish their accomplishments. Who could've predicted removing half McDavid's games against one team would lower his point total? Checkmate atheists!

 

[Thenameless]

Annnnd now we've arrived at the point of removing home games from a player's total to try and diminish their accomplishments. Who could've predicted removing half McDavid's games against one team would lower his point total? Checkmate atheists!

Yes, it's a very weird thing to try to do. They all count. I'm not into weird stats like "if you took away all his back hand goals in the third period, then his per 60 would drop to...."