Is McDavid overachieving due to division reallignment?

[KCC]

He is torching the league but are his point totals impacted by being in the north division? If he played in another division would he be leading in points?

**i meant leading in points as he hasn't won ross yet but i can't edit poll q

His points per game average has gone UP every single year he's been in the league. Is it higher than it would normally be because of this shortened season and facing Canadian teams? Probably. But there's no denying he's the best in the world and only getting better.

 

[Deplorable Lenny]

He's .24 ppg above last year which was his highest to that point. That's a big jump.

But he has also improved every year he's been in the league

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

He'd probably still win the scoring title but there is not a chance in hell he'd have 60 points in 34 games in a normal season

 

[McRpro]

He'd probably still win the scoring title but there is not a chance in hell he'd have 60 points in 34 games in a normal season

No chance in hell eh? He had 57 after 34 games last year coming off an injury.

 

[34]

This is a poll referencing McDavid, @Hollywood North, not Matthews and Marner.

McDavid is playing well, we get it. No need to celebrate like the Oilers just won back to back Cups. Chill out.

 

[Spirit of 67]

There's no way to know.

 

[Zamknij kurwa ryj]

McDavid is playing well, we get it. No need to celebrate like the Oilers just won back to back Cups. Chill out.

Well when you're one of only two people to choose "he wouldn't win the Art Ross in another division and totals are inflated due to being in North Div" you deserve to be called out for the utter stupidity of that opinion.

He'd probably still win the scoring title but there is not a chance in hell he'd have 60 points in 34 games in a normal season

Did you forget about last season?

 

[34]

Well when you're one of only two people to choose "he wouldn't win the Art Ross in another division and totals are inflated due to being in North Div" you deserve to be called out for the utter stupidity of that opinion.

Did you forget about last season?

Talk about hypocritical, Matthews has the same amount of goals in six less played games. Yet you were the very one to call him out for playing in a weak division. However, McDavid is in the same division but that does not apply.

 

[NyQuil]

Guy who always leads the league in scoring leads the league in scoring.

LET'S INVESTIGATE!

 

[Zamknij kurwa ryj]

Talk about hypocritical, Matthews has the same amount of goals in six less played games. Yet you were the very one to call him out for playing in a weak division. However, McDavid is in the same division but that does not apply.

I don't think comparing Matthews to McDavid ever ends well for Leafs fans, but please proceed.

By the way, I never said Matthews played in a weak division. What I've said is that if anyone has had his point totals inflated in the North in comparison to his typical statistical output, it's Matthews. And that was the case (borne out by simple statistics) before he went into his usual annual slump. Still probably is the case even taking that into account, actually.

Meanwhile McDavid scored at a similar rate last season compared to this one with 57 points in 34 games. So, again, your opinion that his totals are inflated in the North and that a guy who has finished in the top 2 for the Art Ross soon to be 5 seasons running wouldn't win it in another division is pure idiocy.

 

[dukeofjive]

Talk about hypocritical, Matthews has the same amount of goals in six less played games. Yet you were the very one to call him out for playing in a weak division. However, McDavid is in the same division but that does not apply.

You forgot mathews is 1st in p/60 change the goal post in threads again this year

 

[Homesick]

McDavid's stats are being inflated but it has nothing to do with the division. The emergence of two elite puckmovers in Barrie/Nurse has helped(but he'd still win the Art Ross in any division)

 

[34]

I don't think comparing Matthews to McDavid ever ends well for Leafs fans, but please proceed.

By the way, I never said Matthews played in a weak division. What I've said is that if anyone has had his point totals inflated in the North in comparison to his typical statistical output, it's Matthews. And that was the case (borne out by simple statistics) before he went into his usual annual slump. Still probably is the case even taking that into account, actually.

Meanwhile McDavid scored at a similar rate last season compared to this one with 57 points in 34 games. So, again, your opinion that his totals are inflated in the North and that a guy who has finished in the top 2 for the Art Ross soon to be 5 seasons running wouldn't win it in another division is pure idiocy.

Matthews - plays in weak division.

McDavid - does not play in a weak division.

You have a short memory from when the Leafs just humiliated the Oilers sweeping them with 2 shut outs going 3-0 in the series, and out scoring them 13-1. McDavid did not record a single point.

Lots of hockey to be played still. I would suggest you don’t get ahead of yourself.

 

[kmart]

all i know is whoever gets odd stats in this covid season gets an asterisk added at the end of the year. it does not mean that a player like mcdavid is not the best or something like that, it just means not to read to much into the numbers this year. some teams play a downed opponent 3+ times in a row, games without coaches, covid protocols, delayed games, its a crazy season.

 

[Video Nasty]

Sad that there are people who believe this. All the data, visual and statistical at our fingertips, and still so wrong.

Makes you wonder how much people are to be trusted when they talk about players from days long gone when they can't even get their facts straight in present day.

 

[Cup or Bust]

His season is pretty similar to last so far, only difference is he hasn't been stuck playing 5 on 5 with players like Kassian and Archibald for long stretches of the season. I am sure that has helped add a few points.

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

He'd still be a Ross favorite in a normal season, but obviously his scoring is so bonkers because of the division he plays in

 

[filinski77]

McDavid Last Season:
-> After 34 games = 1.68 points/gp
-> After 56 games = 1.50 points/gp
-> At end of season = 1.52 points/gp

McDavid This Season:
-> After 34 games = 1.76 points/gp (~5% increase from last year)

Couple things to note:
-> Like many have said, McDavid was still the favorite to win the Ross this year anyways, regardless of division alignment
-> He's clearly on one of the best streaks of his career and expectedly would cool down a bit by the end of the season
-> Let's say that hypothetically he finishes the 56 games with a 1.75 points/gp: Is he now a 140+ point player in a full season? Doubt it. I'd have a hard time agreeing with an argument that his 16% increase in production from last year has nothing to do with a weird season of only playing the same few teams (regardless of the quality of any division). As of now, his highest point/gp in a close to a full season is 1.49, and until we can see him actually do it, then no reason to think he will do it.

 

[Homesick]

McDavid Last Season:
-> After 34 games = 1.68 points/gp
-> After 56 games = 1.50 points/gp
-> At end of season = 1.52 points/gp

McDavid This Season:
-> After 34 games = 1.76 points/gp (~5% increase from last year)

Couple things to note:
-> Like many have said, McDavid was still the favorite to win the Ross this year anyways, regardless of division alignment
-> He's clearly on one of the best streaks of his career and expectedly would cool down a bit by the end of the season
-> Let's say that hypothetically he finishes the 56 games with a 1.75 points/gp: Is he now a 140+ point player in a full season? Doubt it. I'd have a hard time agreeing with an argument that his 16% increase in production from last year has nothing to do with a weird season of only playing the same few teams (regardless of the quality of any division). As of now, his highest point/gp in a close to a full season is 1.49, and until we can see him actually do it, then no reason to think he will do it.

Maybe his 16% increase is due to him not starting the season 84% healthy?

 

[HisNoodliness]

The North division has the highest goals/game of any division (last I checked it was ~3.2 North, ~2.9 Central, ~2.7 others) so I think it's pretty likely that McDavid's totals are somewhat inflated by playing in the highest scoring division. I think everyone knew this division would be this way coming into the year, it's mostly teams known for their offense and not their defensive prowess. It's my favorite division to watch because the games are really entertaining.

His production isn't that much higher than last year though and I think McDavid would be the favorite to win the Art Ross regardless of the division he plays in. He's the best player in the world (yeah I know, Matthews/MacKinnon/whoever is great too, McDavid is the best). What else would you expect?

 

[Homesick]

The North division has the highest goals/game of any division (last I checked it was ~3.2 North, ~2.9 Central, ~2.7 others) so I think it's pretty likely that McDavid's totals are somewhat inflated by playing in the highest scoring division. I think everyone knew this division would be this way coming into the year, it's mostly teams known for their offense and not their defensive prowess. It's my favorite division to watch because the games are really entertaining.

His production isn't that much higher than last year though and I think McDavid would be the favorite to win the Art Ross regardless of the division he plays in. He's the best player in the world (yeah I know, Matthews/MacKinnon/whoever is great too, McDavid is the best). What else would you expect?

Remove the Oilers games and the North is the lowest scoring

 

[Midnight Judges]

The North isn't the best division, but it's not as bad as some make it out to be. OTT is really the only terrible team in the division and isn't the worst team in the League (BUF is).

What basis is there to compare which team is better?

 

[HisNoodliness]

Remove the Oilers games and the North is the lowest scoring

Is that true if you remove the highest scoring team from each division? I know that the argument is that McDavid is the reason it is so high scoring, but that creates an uneven comparison if you remove a high scoring team from one division and not the others. I'm unwilling to do the exercise but it's probably the case if you remove the second highest scoring team's games in the North too.

 

[34]

The

Remove the Oilers games and the North is the lowest scoring

Nice post. The Oilers only have 9 more goals than the Leafs, who happen to have played 2 less games on top of that. Cool story though. Take McDavid off the Oilers and it is a bottom 3 lottery team in the NHL. No depth.

 

[North Cole]

He's probably got a few extra points from being in the North, but it's not the reason he is far ahead of the scoring race. Transposing his pace to start last season still sees him like 14 ahead of Kane at this point.

Matthews - plays in weak division.

McDavid - does not play in a weak division.

You have a short memory from when the Leafs just humiliated the Oilers sweeping them with 2 shut outs going 3-0 in the series, and out scoring them 13-1. McDavid did not record a single point.

Lots of hockey to be played still. I would suggest you don’t get ahead of yourself.

What does the Leaf series have to do with the poll question? He's had other games where he hasn't scored vs a team, and many times where he's gone pointless 2 games in a row.

Connor McDavid Career Splits | Hockey-Reference.com
^^^ McDavid's splits for his career. His PPG vs the Leafs is 1.375, lower than this season but right near his career PPG. Prior to that series his PPG vs the Leafs was 1.69 so statistically it makes a little sense that he regressed towards his mean career PPG, yes? What's more of an outlier, the 13 games vs the Leafs at 1.69 PPG or the 3 games at zero PPG?

His Pacific Splits are 1.28 PPG (160 games) which people love to poop on every year for being a bad division. Ironically the "strongest" division in hockey (Metro) is the one he takes on the dump on the most at 1.5 PPG (68 games), with the Atlantic not far behind. So sure, while he gets to feast on Ottawa, he doesn't get to feast on Dallas (1.58PPG, 12 games), Columbus (1.90PPG, 10 games), Florida (2.00PPG, 7 games), NJ (1.67PPG, 9 games), PHI (1.89PPG, 9 games).

Strangely, he is under 1PPG against the Sabres and barely PPG vs the Wings. It's almost like it goes both ways, for the few weaker teams he plays against in the North there's an equal number if not more weaker teams he's excluded from playing in other divisions. Keep in mind these are career splits and so include his first two years, whereas his PPG has been steadily rising every year it seems, so I would expect the Pacific PPG to normalize up towards his career average.